Will Rogers

The Falcons have held their own against 2 tough opponents, scoring 26 and 27 points and covering in both games.  They have a solid rush offense to date, and Mariota has put them in a position to win both games.  The 1-1 Seahawks were lucky to win their first game and lost badly last week.  They are close to the bottom in many offensive categories, including time of possession and points scored.  They have no run game to speak of.  Geno Smith has been accurate but unable to generate points or yards.
Neither team has defended well against the pass.  Seattle has given up big yards against the run.  Home team or not, I just can't Seattle generating  enough points or defending well enough against a fairly dynamic Falcons offense.  Take the Falcons to steal this one.  9*!

The 5-5 Marlins have been tough against the Nationals in Miami for some time, have won two straight against the Nats,  and are a surprisingly big favorite today.  The Nationals have struggled lately at just 3-7.  Right handed veteran Sanchez starts for Washington.  While his record may not show it, he has pitched well lately, with an ERA of 2.10 over his last 7 games.  He faced Miami in his last start, giving up just 2 runs over 6 innings, and has a road ERA of 2 runs less this season.

He faces another right-hander, Miami's Cabrera. Cabrera is 6-3 for the season, but has not been quite as sharp, with a worse ERA than Sanchez's at 3.49 L7.  He hasn't pitched past the fifth lately and has also given up 5 home runs in his last 4 starts.

Both teams have been getting very good relief pitching; the Nationals pen has oddly been better than Maimi's.  The Marlins have been hitting better just lately, but are generally a poor bet against a righty.  The odds seem very high for weak team like Miami.  The Nationals took two of three from the Marlins in their home series.  Take Washington on the run line today at + 1 1/2.

The Eagles collectively improved from week 1, and manhandled the Vikings in a complete game winning effort. Hurts looked poised and produced in the air and, of course, on the ground. The Eagles’ running game is on fire with Sanders averaging 88 yds a game and 5.9 yds/carry. Hurts has “chipped in” with 147 yards to date, ahead of all passers. On defense, they limited the Vikings’ run game to 62 yds and all but shut down the highly touted Jefferson in the air. The Vikings’ offense was on the field less than 40% of the time.

The Commanders lost to Detroit, but Wentz made it interesting in the second half. He has thrown for over 300 yards in the first two games, but also had 3 interceptions and was sacked 6 times to date. Wentz had better be good as Washington has had no appreciable running game to date. The Commanders’ defense has struggled against the run, at or near the bottom in yds and yds/carry, and giving up 191 yards to the Lions last week. They’ve also given up considerably more yards in the air than the Eagles.

I am big on the Eagles this year, but was concerned with their defensive play in Week one. Week two showed real improvement against a possible play-off team. There is much talk about a revenge game for Wentz this week. That sentiment goes both ways as Russell Wilson found out in his first game back in Seattle. Take the Eagles to win and cover. 9*!

The 2-0 Chiefs face a struggling Colts team in Indianapolis on Sunday. The Colts game in week two could hardly have gone worse, but the line has drifted in the Colts’ favor. I am unsure why. KC and Patrick Mahomes have looked very good in their opening two games. Mahomes has adapted comfortably to his new circumstances, and we are seeing some timely running from this pass-centric offense. Mahomes has had great protection, hasn’t thrown an interception, and has a monster QB rating.

The Colts’ offense has been a shambles, and were shut out last week. Taylor only carried the ball 9 times, which is incomprehensible. Ryan does not look settled, and has been very poor under pressure, of which there has been lots as the Colts’ O-line has struggled. Ryan threw 3 interceptions, was sacked multiple times, and ended with a miserable 34 passer rating. He may benefit from the return of a quality target, but that is still an unknown.

Kc did not defend well vs the pass last week but faced a much tougher opponent in the Chargers. They have been more successful applying pressure to the passer than the Colts, but haven’t faced a top running back like Taylor this year, so will need to work to contain him.

The Colts would have to make a huge adjustment to come within a TD of the Chiefs and there really is no sign of that in week three. To add to their problems, the Colts will miss a pair of key people on defense this week. I am on KC to win and cover on the road on Sunday.

It was just the one quarter... Like the old joke, the Ravens’ 4th quarter soured a fine game from Lamar Jackson. And yes, the Patriots’ won last week, but against a Steelers team with not much of an offense. The Patriots do not have the receivers, nor can Jones run and gun with Jackson. Not to mention, the Ravens blitz and Jones is very susceptible. Both teams have been solid vs. the run, but NE hasn’t faced a QB who can scramble like Jackson. The Ravens lack of rushing offense, other than Jackson, is a concern, but that may change today.  New England does have two solid running backs.

Jackson’s QB rating is right up there, Jones is 18th. Jackson has thrown just 1 interception; Jones 2. Neither passer was sacked last game. NE may be missing their top receiver in this game, a situation they can ill afford.

I am wagering on the Ravens this week and expect them to bounce back from their ugly loss in week two.  I also expect the Ravens' defense to be on their very best behavior and make the necessary adjustments, and had success backing the Browns' defense to respond this week.  Jones has yet to prove himself this year; Jackson will be the game breaker.  The line has dropped below a field goal.  Jump on the Ravens to win and cover.

The 1-1 Cowboys face off with the 2-0 Giants in a highly touted MNF game. Sorry Giants, but I am not sure that 3-0 is a real possibility. First off, I am not sold on Jones nor the Giants ability to protect him on Monday. Jones was well under 200 yds passing, with very short yds/comp and was sacked multiple time. This against 2 relatively poor pass attacks. The Cowboys’ pass defense has been formidable, top 5 in most categories, and a passer nightmare in both games. The Giants also saw the run game (Barkley) fall off significantly in week two after a fine and much publicized effort in Week one against a weak defense. The Cowboys’ rush defense was much better in week two, holding Mixon and the Bengals to 89 yards.

On defense the Giants have not really impressed. The run defense struggled against the Titans as expected but allowed nearly 120 yds against Carolina. They are 30th in yards per completion, again vs. two sub-par passers.

Perhaps the biggest question in this game surrounds the Dallas offense after the loss of Prescott. The Cowboys have a very good two pronged running attack. Rush threw for more yards and had a higher passer rating than Jones in week two. He has been well protected and has brilliant targets available. Even with injury returns, the Giants will likely struggle to get to Rush this week. The rest of the Dallas team will have Rush in about in as good a position to succeed as could be hoped for.

The Giants are a small favorite. Take the Cowboys to steal this one on the road.

The Red Sox, thrashed by the Yankees, face another AL East foe at home.  Seabold, a recent call up is on the mound in game one of the series.  He has bounced around this season with four starts under his belt, 3 of them very poor and short.  He has been hit extremely hard to date.   Don't look for much support from the Red Sox' bullpen.  We will likely see a lot of it on Monday, and that is not a good thing.

Lyles starts for the Orioles.  He has had mixed results lately, pitching a fine complete game 1 run effort against Detroit last timeout, but struggling in his previous 2 appearances.  I never like backing a pitcher after a complete game, especially one accustomed to shorter starts.  The Red Sox have had his number this year.  In the last two times they faced him, they have hit him hard and often.  He has given up far more runs than innings pitched against the Sox.

The total is high but the setting is Fenway and the wind is forecast to be blowing out.  That could be exactly what this game will be- a blow out. Both teams can hit, and the opportunities should be there for the taking.  The Sox will be in a nasty mood after their lack of success in recent games, and the Orioles are still (sort of) in the wild card race.  It could be all out offense. Take this game to go over.