Will Rogers

Much of the Rangers' success this season was due to the play of Shesterkin, and for whatever reason he has not been the same since the triple overtime loss to the Penguins.  The Rangers were gifted their first series, playing against a 3rd string goal-tender, but will face a defensive powerhouse in the Hurricanes and a solid goalie in Raanta.  The Hurricanes were a force at home in their first series, and will continue so with a win today.  Take Carolina to win.

It is game one in the Battle of Alberta, a series of huge importance in that Province. The Flames and Oilers both have very potent offenses but Calgary has a solid edge in defensive play. This very easily could be another of the home team-dominant series we have seen thus far. The Flames have ruled the roost at home this season, and against the Oilers, winning three games to one.  Calgary, away from the stifling pace set by the Stars, may be able to step out this series. Oilers’ goalie Smith has had mixed results in the playoffs, so I will take the consistent play of Markstrom in net. The wild card today is the Oilers’ McDavid, who is playing inspired hockey, but the Flames have a much more balanced team, and with home ice advantage, have the last change. This early in the series it is difficult to predict the likely total, but I am convinced of a Flames home victory. They aren’t the best odds, but it is my NHL best bet today.

The Giants seem to have the Rockies’ number both at home and away this season, sweeping the Rockies in San Francisco, and now up 2-0 in Denver. Logan Webb (5-1, 3.48 ERA) starts for the Giants on Wednesday. His last start was very good but he seems to generally give up a few more runs than expected this year. At 5-1, he has been a pitcher who gets great run support, a quality not to be underrated. He faces Freeland, the Rockies’ well paid lefty. Freeland (1-4, 4.91 ERA) has been a bit of a loose cannon. His first two and last starts were very poor, with some very good ones mixed in. He will have to be very good today and throw late into the game if the Rockies have any plans on winning . The Rockies’ bullpen has really struggled, giving up lots of the wrong stuff, used heavily, and with an ERA of over 7.00 in their last 5 games.

The Rockies can hit, but not quite as well as SF at the moment, and the Giants’ bullpen is a definite step up from Colorado’s. The Rockies were able to get to Cobb yesterday but the Giants’ bullpen stood fast. Look for a good start from Webb, and who knows what from Freeland, with the Giants running away in the late innings. Take San Francisco on the run line at -1 ½.

I think most are underestimating the Mavericks coming into the Western Conference Finals. This is a team that has already eliminated Utah and Phoenix, two very good teams, and just delivered an emphatic 123-90 win on Sunday in Game 7 vs. Phoenix. So no one should be underestimating them.

Luka Doncic averaged 32.6 points per game against Phoenix. In four regular season matchups vs. the Warriors, he averaged 31.5. That was the fourth most points scored against Golden State in a single season since Steve Kerr became head coach. 

Gary Payton II would have been the primary defender on Doncic, but he’s out with an injury. So I think Golden State is going to give up more points than what you might think for Game 1. Dallas did have the one bad offensive game vs. the Suns where they scored only 80 points. But since then, they scored 113 and 123. 

The Mavericks are a perfect 9-0 straight up and 8-0-1 against the spread in the 2021-22 season following a game where they allowed 90 or fewer points. The Warriors are 0-5 ATS off their previous five SU wins and have only covered two of their last eight games overall.

In case you hadn’t figured it out by now, I’m taking the points in Game 1. Doncic is playing at an elite level and the Mavericks have the higher net efficiency rating through two rounds of playoff action. 

The Astros crushed the Red Sox on Tuesday, bouncing back from a rare loss the night before. One of the league’s top teams at the moment, the Astros are getting great pitching. Garcia, one of the bright lights, has been very sharp in May. He is 2-0 in two starts, giving up just 1 run over 12 innings. His opponent, Sox’ right-hander Pivetta (5.08 ERA) has turned his early season around after a shaky start, but even if Pivetta throws a third quality start in a row, there is still the Sox’ bullpen to deal with. They have not been up to snuff, with a recent ERA of over 5.00, a distant second when compared to the Astros’ relief staff. The Sox were forced to use 6 relievers on Tuesday so may be short-staffed for Wednesday as well.

The Astros have been a fine road team this year, and are hitting for average and power, especially against right handers. The Sox are just 5-9 at home, 10 -17 vs righties, and not the same threat on offense. My bet is on Garcia and the Astros to win on Wednesday