Will Rogers

The set-up: These teams are similar. Neither plays great defense and each has an above average offense. Each is filled with plenty of offensive talent as well. Both teams are coming off high-scoring victories, but I believe that the stage is now finally set for more of a defensive affair between these two top Western Conference teams. 

The pick: The trends support this theory as well, as note that the Clippers have seen the total go under the number in five of their last seven when playing with two days rest and in all seven of their games this season as a road underdog, while Dallas has seen the total dip under the number in four of its last five in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. I think each team doubles down defensively tonight to try and earn this victory.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Clippers/Mavericks.

The set-up: I like the home side to pull off the upset here. However, I'm going to recommend to grab the points instead of playing on the money line. The Shockers have suddenly lost back-to-back games and I think the hungry Bulls will take advantage of this now reeling visiting side. USF won't be lacking for motivation here either as it enters off a 55-54 road loss vs. UCF. Note that USF won this game at home last year by a score of 54-41. The Bulls struggle offensively, but they make up for it on the defensive end. 

The pick: Note as well that USF is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog, while Wichita State is just 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 as a road favorite. South Florida's last three losses have come by a combined eight points. The stage is set for the outright, but as stated off the top, I'm grabbing the points.

8* play on USF.

The set-up: Akron is 4-1 ATS in its last five, but it comes to town off a ten-point home loss to Toledo last time out. Miami Ohio comes in hungrier here though after dropping four of its last five, including falling by nine at Ball State last time out. These two teams are always competitive. Miami Ohio though plays with revenge here as Akron has taken the last two between the schools, both SU and ATS. 

The pick: But note that Miami Ohio is was gone 4-1 SU at home the last five in this series, including 5-0 ATS. Akron is the better team on paper, but Miami Ohio is the hungrier and more desperate revenge-minded team on the floor. Grab the points.

8* play on Miami Ohio.

The set-up: This game will be broadcast nationally on Fox Sports 1 and I'm expecting an all out war. The Terps are 14-4, but I believe they'll have a fight on their hands today. In fact note, Maryland is 0-4 in true road games this year. The Terps have not let an opponent exceed 70 points in league play so far, but they come in averaging just 71.2 PPG. Northwestern is just 6-11 and it'll have a big opportunity to snap its frustration with a quality win this evening. Easier said than done, but note that the Wildcats do in fact have two wins over Top 100 teams and six of their last seven losses have been by single digits. Northwestern's offense catches a break today facing the slower paced Terrapins.

The pick: Maryland is 2-5 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite (including 0-3 ATS this year), while Northwestern is 8-3 ATS this season as an underdog. This one has "nail-biter" written all over it, so grab the points.

10* play on Northwestern.

The set-up: Chelsea beat Arsenal 2-1 on December 29th and I like it to duplicate that feat in regulation today. Arsenal has struggled with consistency all season and it enters off a poor draw with Sheffield. Arsenal has just two wins out of its last six and its place in the top flight league is in jeopardy. Revenge is a factor I always take into consideration, but Chelsea can ill afford to look past its opponent today after inexplicably falling 1-0 to Newcastle last time out. 

The pick: While Chelsea enters in farily good health though, Arsenal is ravaged by injury, with Lucas Torreira, Calum Chambers, Kieran Tierney and Hector Bellerin all out. I think Frank Lampard has Chelsea in a great spot to bounce back here in regulation.

10* EPL GAME OF THE YEAR on Chelsea.