Will Rogers

The set-up: Tennessee got the better of South Carolina 85-73 at home on Wednesday, while Kentucky pulled away for a 73-71 win at home over LSU on Tuesday. Tennessee is 23-1 this year and ranked No. 1 in the country. Kentucky is 20-4 and it’s ranked No. 5. But for me this game comes down to “revenge.” Kentucky got the better of the Vols 77-72 in the SEC Tournament Title game back on March 11th 2018. With a chance to avenge that setback, I think the visitors “come to play” tonight. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Wildcats are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 following a SU loss, while Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Clearly the outright win isn’t out of the question, but in the end I’ll recommend to grab the points.

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The set-up: Florida State will be pushing the pace as it looks to extend its win streak to seven games this afternoon. The Yellow Jackets will be desperate here and they’ll have to match pace with the visitors as they look to pull off the upset and snap a six-game losing streak at the same time. In my opinion, this one sets up as more of a “run and gun shootout,” than a slower-paced defensive affair where each side sets up a half four offense. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but FSU has seen the total go “over” the number in six of its last nine off three straight victories vs. conference rivals, while GT has seen the total go “over” in four of its last five after two or more straight losses on the road. This number is low, play the “over.”

9* play

The set-up: Southern Illinois comes in off a deflating 72-69 home loss to Drake on Tuesday, while Indiana State enters off a confidence building 87-82 OT road victory over Valparaiso on Wednesday. These teams are moving in opposite directions right now and I think that trend carries over. Also note that Indiana State plays with revenge here after it fell 88-73 on the road in the first match-up back on January 30th. From a “situational” stand point, this one sets up fantastically for Indiana State in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Southern Illinois is just 6-7 ATS this season following a conference game, while Indiana State is 4-2 ATS as a favorite this season and 7-3 ATS in its last ten revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more. Lay the short points.

9* play

The set-up: The Oilers come in off a 3-1 road loss in Carolina just last night. Edmonton has now lost nine of its last ten. Clearly the Oilers have many issues this year, but I think the visitors play with extreme desperation in the second game of the back-to-back. The Islanders have been rolling and are one of the surprise teams in the NHL this year, but with three whole nights off before a Western road swing, I think the home side get caught in a “trap” this evening. 

The pick: Take it for why you will as well, but the Oilers are 6-3 (+2.1 units) in their last nine after scoring one goal or less in their previous outing, while New York is just 2-3 (-1.4 units) this season after shutting out its opponent in its previous outing. Lay the price, play on Edmonton the “puck line.” 

10* play

The set-up: Oklahoma enters off a 59-53 road loss to Baylor and I think it’s primed for another letdown here. TCU comes in focused after a tough 82-77 OT loss at home to No. 14 Kansas in its latest action. Note that this is a “revenge” game as well for the Horned Frogs, as the Sooners have won three straight in this series, including a 76-74 victory in the first matchup at home back in mid January. There’s no question that from a “situational” stand point, that this one sets up beautifully for the home side in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but TCU is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 at home overall, while Oklahoma is just 1-4-2 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Lay the points, this one has blowout written all over it.

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The set-up: I think George Mason comes in flat footed after its tough 80-75 OT win over UMass on Wednesday. The Bonnies though are ready to build off their convincing 76-51 road win over Saint Joseph’s on Tuesday. Note that the Bonnies also play with revenge here after falling 68-53 at George Mason on the first matchup this year back on January 6th. From a “situational” stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully for the home side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but George Mason just 1-4 ATS this year off two straight victories vs. conference rivals, while St. Bonaventure is 3-1 ATS in its last four revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Bonnies.

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