Will Rogers

The Raptors have started to play a bit better. They’re still five games below .500 and 12th in the East, mind you. But they’ve also won three of four, most recently defeating the Kings in Sacramento by a score of 123-105 (as a 4.5 point dog). Now they head to Phoenix, looking to improve to 3-1 on this current trip out West.

The Suns had a miserable post-Christmas stretch where they lost 9 of 10. Injuries were the main culprit. Devin Booker remains out but the team has now won five of six. The only loss in that stretch came here at home vs. Dallas Thursday night. I faded the Suns in that spot and will do the same again tonight.

Saturday’s 128-118 win in San Antonio was a little misleading as the Suns needed overtime. It also bears mentioning that the Spurs are one of the two worst teams in the league.

Toronto has scored more points than its allowed this season, so they should have a better record. They beat the Suns 113-104, albeit at home, back on December 30th.

Landry Shamet and Cameron Payne also remain out for Phoenix. DeAndre Ayton was battling a non-COVID illness last week while Chris Paul is just a week removed from his own seven-game absence. Take the points while you can get them. 10*

It looks like a tall order here for Orlando as they will be facing a Philadelphia team that has won 20 of its last 24 games and seven straight. Over the last three seasons, the Magic are 0-9 vs. the 76ers. 

This is the third meeting of the season between the two teams. The previous two were in Orlando with Philly winning by scores of 133-103 and 107-99. 

I think this will be more like the first one, which was low-scoring. Yes, the NBA’s leading scorer Joel Embiid is coming off a 47-point game for the Sixers. But after their last three games all went Over, I think this Sixers’ offense is set to cool down some.

Orlando fell over the weekend to Chicago, 128-109 as 2.5-point home favorites. They are 11-3 Under this season after suffering a double digit loss.

Philadelphia is fourth in the NBA in points allowed and holds opponents to 47.4% shooting. I’m not at all concerned about Orlando putting up a lot of points tonight. Above all else though, we’re talking two teams that have both shot & allowed over 50% their last five games. That’s not going to continue. 10*

Texas Tech picked up a much needed win on Saturday as they defeated LSU 76-68 as a 2.5 point road favorite in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. But the Red Raiders are still winless (0-8) in conference play. They look to change that Monday night against an Iowa State team that’s also now reeling a bit.

Iowa State was not successful in its game vs. the SEC, losing 78-61 at Missouri as a one point favorite. That drops the Cyclones to 0-3 ATS their last three games. They’ve dropped three of five outright, all three of the SU losses coming on the road. 

This is a huge revenge game for Texas Tech, who got beat 84-50 in Ames back on January 13th. There was a wide disparity in three-point shooting for the game as ISU went 12 of 22 from deep while TT was 5 of 26.

Despite being 0-8 in Big 12 play, the Red Raiders have almost always been competitive. Five of their losses have been by seven points or less. Two of those were by three or less (to Texas and Kansas) and they also lost in OT to Oklahoma. There have been three games on the conference slate where Texas Tech had the lead at halftime.

Prior to losing in Ames three weeks ago, the Red Raiders were a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. Iowa State going back to 2019. Take the points (while you can get them) and even look to bet TT as a slight favorite (if the line moves). 10* 

These two divisional rivals meet up with both teams struggling in recent games.  The Jets are just 3 points out of first place but have lost 3 straight including a rare pair at home.  St. Louis is singing the blues this season.  They are just 4-6 L10 and have lost 4 straight, scoring just 8 goals and allowing 19.  The Jets have usually played a fine defensive style with the fifth-ranked defense and a very good PK.  In most of their recent games, Winnipeg has continued to shut down the opposition, but a very capable offense has not shown well.  The Blues are well below average on defense and offense at five-on-five, and just average on special teams.  They have some significant injuries as well.
The Jets and Blues goalies are long-time foes.  Hellebuyck has been playing much better than Binnington this year.  He was pulled after rare poor play, which will rankle.  After a couple of days off, look for the Jets and their goalie to pull it together on Monday.  Take the Jets to win on the puck line at -1 1/2. 

The Clippers sat both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George Sunday in Cleveland. Therefore, their five-game win streak went “bye bye” in a (somewhat) predictable 122-99 loss. 

It looks like both Leonard and George will play tonight, so most bettors are probably going to want to lay the short number. But I’m wary of a Bulls team that’s won five of its last six at home.

But I don’t want to back the Bulls getting so few points. Therefore, we turn to the total, which is too high in my opinion. That’s probably because the last four Clippers’ games all went Over the total. But they remain bottom eight in the league in pace and I suspect we’ll see better defense tonight than what we saw on Sunday. 

Chicago put up 128 in a win on Saturday where they shot almost 60% from the floor. No way they come close to shooting it that well again. The Clippers are also due for some shooting regression. 

The Under is 4-1 in the Bulls’ last five games as well as 5-0 the last five times they’ve been off an ATS win (as they are here). 10*

Both the Lakers and Knicks are looking to bounce back from losses to Brooklyn in their most recent games. I think the home team is well-positioned to be the one that gets the job done.

This is the second night of a back to back for the Lakers, who lost 121-104 in Brooklyn last night. Neither LeBron James or Anthony Davis suited up Monday. That was their second loss in a row, coming on the heels of the “controversial” overtime loss to Boston Saturday night. 

The Knicks lost in Brooklyn Saturday night, 122-115 as a 1-point favorite. Defensively, they had few answers, especially for Kyrie Irvin. Prior to that though, NY had won two straight.

Curiously, the Knicks are just 12-13 SU at home this season. I expect that record to improve moving forward. The Lakers, just 10-16 on the road, are getting too much respect from the oddsmakers here.

Look for the Knicks to punish a Lakers team that is allowing 120.9 points/game on the road. James and Davis both remain on the injury report and if one (or both) were not to play tonight, the current number is a steal. (Note: this play stands whether or not James and/or Davis plays or not).  8*

Usually, when we talk about Vanderbilt wandering into Tuscaloosa “at the wrong time,” we think of Nick Saban. But over at the Coleman Coliseum, things are likely to get pretty ugly Tuesday night.

That’s because the 4th ranked Crimson Tide just got humiliated out in Oklahoma on Saturday. They lost 93-69 in the SEC-Big 12 Challenge and saw their nine-game win streak come to a crashing halt.

But Bama is still undefeated in SEC play (10-0), one of just six teams in the country without a conference loss.

They’ve already beaten Vandy once, by 12, and that was on the road. The final margin tonight should be a lot greater when you consider the Tide are winning by an average of nearly 23 points/game at home. 

The Commodores have lost five of seven overall. They didn’t get to play a Big 12 team over the weekend, but did lose another conference tilt, 72-66 at Texas A&M. Vandy obviously isn’t anywhere near as talented as Alabama and this is a terrible spot to be facing one of the best teams in the country, who should be plenty angry and motivated. Lay it. 10*