Ben Burns Ben Burns
After a big March, its been a disappointing April, thus far. Burns is a long way from being done yet though. Expect him to right the ship with a big winning Tuesday card.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Apr 20, 2021
Red Wings vs Stars
OVER 5 -134 Won
$100
Play Type: Free

These teams played yesterday and the O/U line was 5.5. With that game finishing with five goals, we're now able to get an O/U line of five for today's game. While we have to lay some extra juice to get the five, thats a very important number and I feel that we're getting fair value. The Stars have seen eight straight games produce a minimum of five goals. (Five of those games produced exactly five goals.) On the season, Detroit road games are averaging 5.7 goals. Likewise, Dallas home games are averaging 5.7 goals. They should get at least five again tonight with an excellent shot at getting more than that. Consider the Over 5 goals. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 20, 2021
Wolves vs Kings
OVER 237½ -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

I'm playing on Minnesota/Sacramento OVER the total. These are arguably the two worst defensive teams in the league. Sacramento allows the most points (118.6) per game. At 118.1 ppg allowed, the Wizards are second worst, tied with Washington. The two teams also rank last and second last, in terms of the opposing teams field goal percentage. Opposing teams hit 48.4% of their field goals and Minnesota and 49% of their fg's against Sacramento. Not only do the Kings score more points at home, they also allow more points here. Visiting teams average more than 120 points when they come here. With little reason for any defense, look for the OVER to improve to 21-10 when the Kings attempted to avenge an earlier loss. 

Matchup Selection W/L
Soccer  |  Apr 20, 2021
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Chelsea
Chelsea
-149 at pinnacle
Lost
$149.0
Play Type: Top Premium

I'm playing on CHELSEA. In some instances, off games against Porto in Champions League and Man City in the FA Cup, Chelsea could potentially letdown for a league game against the 16th place team. This isn't one of those instances. Its been a long climb back but the the Blues have put themselves in the position that they wanted to get to. A victory here puts them into the top 4. They're currently in fifth, a point behind West Ham. Having fought so hard to pull its way up, the Blues will not be denied against lowly Brighton. There will be no letdown. The Blues have beaten the Seagulls 12 of the past 14 meetings. While the schedule is tough, the price reflects that. Chelsea could easily be a heavier favorite. Keep in mind that they've both played 31 games. Not only has Chelsea conceded fewer goals but its also outscored the Seagulls by a 50-33 margin.  Expect the Blues to dig deep and come away with the important win. 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 20, 2021
Dodgers vs Mariners
Dodgers
-185 at linepros
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

I'm playing on LA. The Mariners are off to a nice start and they scored the upset in yesterday's game. The Dodgers don't lose twice in a row often though and they'll bounce right back this afternoon. LA, 58-26 its last 84 off a loss, is 30-13 its last 43 as a road favorite of -175 or more. The Dodgers are also a dominant 46-16 in day games, during that span. Over the same period, the M's are an ugly 27-49 against southpaw starters. Urias has a 1.29 ERA and 0.571 WHIP on the road while Gonzales has a 7.50 ERA and 1.833 WHIP at home. Dodgers roll. 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 20, 2021
Dodgers vs Mariners
OVER 8 -114 Lost
$114.0
Play Type: Premium

I'm playing on LA/Sea OVER the total. Yesterday's game was low-scoring but we should see the bats come to life this afternoon. Both starters have seen two of their three starts finish above the number. Gonzales has struggled. Through three starts, he's given up six home runs, a span of just 15 1/3 total innings. During that period, he also walked seven. Thats a recipe for disaster. A lot of walks combined with a lot of home runs. Not surprisingly, he's got an awful 8.22 ERA and 1.761 WHIP. Urias gave up two home runs of his own last time out, allowing five runs (4 earned) in six innings. Of course, he's got the luxury of a potent LA lineup working behind him. The Dodgers scored seven runs for him, winning 7-5. In his previous start, he was provided with nine runs, a 9-5 win. Expect a relatively high-scoring affair. 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 20, 2021
Giants vs Phillies
Phillies
-148 at linepros
Lost
$148.0
Play Type: Top Premium

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Giants are off to a strong start and they blanked the Phillies in yesterday's game. I expect Philadelphia to bounce right back today. Note that the Phillies are a profitable 37-16 the past few seasons, as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Wheeler, who had a 2.92 ERA in 11 starts last season, gets the call. He's 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA at home so far this season. In seven shutout innings here, he held the Braves to a single hit. He struck out 10 without walking a single batter. Dominant. A closer look at the 2020 numbers shows that he was 4-0 with a 2.38 ERA at home, as compared to 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA on the road. Webb has a 5.30 ERA for his career and he had a 5.47 ERA last season. He last pitched out of the bullpen and is only back in the rotation due to Cueto's injury. Expect Wheeler to get the better of Webb and the Phillies to get the better of the Giants. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Apr 20, 2021
Maple Leafs vs Canucks
Maple Leafs
-1½ -111 at pinnacle
Lost
$111.0
Play Type: Top Premium

I'm playing TORONTO on the puck-line (-1.5 goals) After getting hammered worse than any other team by Covid, the Canucks returned and scored the upset against the Leafs. Don't expect it to happen again. Many of the Canucks did indeed feel the virus more than other teams, perhaps the Brazil variant being to blame. They're still extremely short-handed and beating the top team in the division twice in a row like that is highly unlikely. Of course, thats why the Leafs are such heavy favorites on the moneyline. Still, we get them at a very fair price on the puck-line and I don't see this one being all that close. The Leafs, 13-3 their last 16 when playing with revenge, should jump all over their outmatched hosts right out of the gate. Expect the effects of all the off-time to catch up with the Canucks here, the Leafs bouncing back and winning by multiple goals. 

SERVICE BIO

Age: 45

Background

In "Outliers," Malcolm Gladwell asks the question: "What makes high achievers different?" Gladwell suggests that those at the top of their field have a number of similarities - that their upbringing (culture, family, what generation they came from, experiences) had much to do with their success.

As a professional sports handicapper, Ben Burns is widely recognized as being "at the top of his field." A look at Ben's upbringing shows that he fits Gladwell's model to a tee.

Exposed to the world of point spreads early and often as a child, Burns reached adulthood as the Internet was first beginning to explode, just as the first offshore sportsbooks were springing up. By that time he'd already spent thousands of hours learning and studying stats.

From an early age it became apparent to family and friends that Ben wasn't a "typical" fan. At age 11, he was mentioned in a major newspaper (Toronto Star) for correctly predicting a high profile trade before the Major League Baseball trading deadline. (Winner of the contest got tickets to the All Star game.)

Ben's father and uncles were always involved in a weekly NFL (ATS) pool. Some of Ben's earliest memories included that pool and his fascination with it. As soon as he was allowed to play, Ben demonstrated an uncanny ability to surprise the adults. Around this time, one of his uncles moved his casino business to the Caribbean. This was the environment which he came from.

The caption underneath Ben's high-school graduation photo references Ben's love for betting on football. That's because he was famous throughout his school for annually winning the local football contest, along with the $1700 per year which was awarded to the champ.

Coming of age right as the first sports books were coming online, Ben was fortunate to enjoy some success with his some of his early online sports betting endeavors. He did so well that the first shop he ever played at ended up refusing to take his hockey bets.

Also, in the very early days of the Internet, Ben won an NBA playoff contest, put on by a company which was called NSS.net. The contest victory awarded him a trip for two to Las Vegas, $1000 cash, a limo at his disposal, free shows, hotel and live sports odds for a year. Not a bad prize for a kid in his early 20s. However, the bigger prize was that Ben was exposed to the world of "professional sports handicapping." Inspired by his personal success and encouraged by his peers, Ben first made his picks available to the public in 1998.

Achievements in Handicapping/Sports

Top Ranked NFL Handicapper

From the years of 1998-2007, Ben's selections were independently documented at one of the Internet's earliest and most respected sports monitors, Big Guy Sports. During that time, Ben earned literally dozens of documented Top 3 finishes in football, basketball, baseball AND hockey, including numerous #1 titles. Competing against a field of 150 of the biggest names in the industry, he ranked as the #1 NFL handicapper in the existence of that sports monitor, in their All-Time rankings.  No competing handicapping service ever came close to matching his NFL record. In fact, Ben also ranked as the #1 combined NFL/NCAA football handicapper.

10 Straight Super Bowl Winners

A big part of the reason for Ben's #1 NFL titles was his annual success in the playoffs. He fared particularly well with his Super Bowl selections. In fact, from 1999-2007, he released 10 Super Bowl picks (3 Sides, 7 totals) and went a perfect 10-0. (All selections independently documented.) In the middle of that 10-0 streak, in the 2002-2003 season, Ben won with both the Bucs and the "over" the year that they beat the Raiders. That win was particularly sweet as he predicted that Tampa would win the Super Bowl in a number of national magazines, prior to the season even starting.

Fantasy Legend

Ben got pretty seriously into the DFS world in 2014 and 2015. Recently, he was featured as "The High Roller" in the 2015 documentary, "Living the Fantasy." A regular fixture at Fan Duel and Draft Kings live championship events, Burns has taken down 6-figure scores in football, basketball AND baseball. While many of the other prominent DFS players come from a poker background, two decades as a sports handicapper provide a unique perspective.

Biggest Win of 2016

The year has just begun but Ben has already enjoyed some notable wins. His "Bowl Game of the Year," which happened to be a total (WVU/ASU "over") saw the teams combine for 85 points and 1196 total yards, all of them in regulation. Closing out the campaign with wins on Clemson AND the "over" in the championship game was also rewarding.  

Systems Used For Handicapping

Bruce Lee noted: "Man, the living creature, the creating individual, is always more important than any established style of system." Lee was known to talk about being shapeless, formless (like water) and ready to adapt to any situation. Likewise, Burns doesn't rely on any one particular methodology. Rather, he combines fundamental, technical and situational techniques, making use of any and all data, which he deems relevant to the situation.

Ben does tend to pay particular attention to the 'situational' side of things. Among numerous other factors, this includes trying to determine when (and why) a team will be extra motivated ("pumped up") to play its best and also when a team may be ripe for a "letdown." Burns has a contrarian nature and this trait is often revealed in his selections.  

Betting Philosophy

Ever adapting, Burns is just as likely to take points as he is to lay them. Over the years, he's played more "unders" than "overs" but that doesn't mean that he won't pull the trigger on an "over" when the time is right to do so. While many handicappers shy away from playing MLB/NHL favorites on the money-line, Ben has proven that one can be highly successful by doing so. For him, it’s all about value. If he can get a team at -130 that he likes and that believes should be -160, than that's a play.

 

Rating and Titles of Plays

Ben uses a scale of 5-10 to show his level of confidence with each play. Plays may include "titles" in order to give users a better idea of what to expect. Some of those titles include:

Personal Favorite - Strongest favorite (or pick'em game) in that sport for the day.

Best Bet - Strongest underdog (or pick'em game) in that sport for the day, occasionally can be a total.

Blue Chip Total - Strongest rated total in that sport/category for the day.

Main Event - Big play which is featured on national television.

Game Of The Week/Month/Year - Top rated side or total for that particular week/month/year.