Alex Smart

My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 15 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

When the series started I was betting on a load of goals going on the board, and as this series has progressed I can see its getting more and more defensive and conservative as both these heavyweights begin to respect the other sides abilities out of transition. This has kept the last few games under the total and now I expect a even more conservative effort  from these sides as do or die hockey is on the proverbial table.

 Here is an interesting anomaly -Under is 6-0-1 in Avalanche last 7 Sunday games.

Under is 7-0 in Lightning last 7 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.Under is 9-1 in Lightning last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 6-1 in Lightning last 7 home games.Under is 9-2 in Lightning last 11 games following a win.

NHL Road teams against the total (COLORADO) - off a close home loss by 1 goal, a top-level team (70% or more ) playing a team with a winning record are 21-4 UNDER L/25 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 Colorado, has won the first three series on the road and is a red hot 8-1 away from home in the postseason and now Im betting we see them hoist the Stanley Cup tonight in TB.  Complete respect for the defending champions but in back to back elimination and cup clinching situations the odds favor the Avs and line-makers  and markets obviously agree with me. 

Avalanche are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

Favorite is 18-6 in the last 24 meetings.

NHL Road Teams when the money line is -100 to -150 (COLORADO) - poor defensive team- 29 or more shots against,17.5%  or more power play killing rate in the 2nd half of the season, hot offensive team - 5 straight games with 30 or more shots on goal are 58-17 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Colorado Avs to win 

Dodgers starter GONSOLIN is 17-5 UNDER   vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.2 rpg scored. TONY GONSOLIN owns a 1.56 ERA along with a minuscule 0.635 WHIP in his L/3 starts. 

Meanwhile, the Braves starter Strider despite of a down effort last time out, saw his two previous starts replicate 2 run outputs from the opposing side.  

LA DODGERS are 32-19 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. LA DODGERS are 9-1 UNDER  on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 this season. LA DODGERS are 13-4 UNDER   on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season.

 Under is 4-0-1 in Dodgers last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game which was the case yesterday in a 5-3 loss. Under is 6-1-2 in Dodgers last 9 games following a loss.

Under is 5-1-1 in Dodgers last 7 vs. National League East.Under is 5-1-3 in Dodgers last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 5-1-1 in Dodgers last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (ATLANTA) - having won 18 or more of their last 25 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 141-75 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

White Sox starter CEASE is in top form but is must be noted that he  is 15-5 OVER  after giving up 2 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 12.1 rpg scored. 

The White Sox have allowed 35 runs in their L/6 games ( 5.83 RPG) and with the Orioles bats showing some life of late averaging 5 rpg in their L/3 trips to the diamond Im betting they do enough damage here to help this total be eclipsed.

Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 during game 4 of a series. Over is 7-3 in Orioles last 10 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. BALTIMORE is 12-4 OVER vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start this season like the White Sox Cease. 

Orioles starter LYLES is 1-2 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 6.13 and a WHIP of 1.909.

MLB Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (CHI WHITE SOX) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less ) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or less ), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games are 44-12 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

The Phillies are off a win yesterday vs the Padres, but the home side has proved to be resilient this season, and are very capable of a bounce back today. Padres are 17-7 in their last 24 games following a loss. With the red hot Darvish on the hill for the Padres we have an edge laying lumber. ( Darvish owns a 3-0 recored along with a  0.82 ERA and a .0592 WHIP in his L/3 trips to the hill). 

Padres are 7-2 in their last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter like the Phillies Gibson. 

Padres are 8-1 in their last 9 during game 4 of a series.

SAN DIEGO is 13-3  against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season.

Phillies are 3-13 in their last 16 Sunday games.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (PHILADELPHIA) - good NL offensive team (4.7 or more runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or less ), cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games are 34-11 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on San Diego to cover