Alex Smart

Dodgers RH Walker Buehler (2-0, 5.40 ERA) vs. Cubs LH Cole Hamels (3-0, 2.77)

Dodgers lost last night to the Cubs, but Im betting they bounce back here in this spot and make it 10 wins in 12 games . Buehler had eight strikeouts while limiting Cincinnati to an unearned run and three hits over 6 1/3 innings on Wednesday and gets my support.  Look for a LA offence that  averages a National League-best 5.52 runs per game to buoy their pitcher and deliver the cash to us . 

HAMELS the Phillies starter  is 23-31 against the money line in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) since 1997. (Team's Record)

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) - good offensive team (4.7  or more runs/game) against a below average starter (ERA 5.20 to 5.70)-NL, with a very bad bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season are 20-50 L/22 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Dodgers to win on the ML

ERVIN SANTANA (R) vs. JOHN MEANS (L)

The  struggling  Orioles smashed  the White Sox 9-1 last night and have an edge tonight vs a team that is just as bad as themselves.  "Means is going to make a lot of starts," Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said of the 25-year-old rookie. "It's something we're going to play with because I do like John in the rotation. He's pitching really well and deserves to stay in the rotation." Means pitched well in his last start, permitting one run on four hits in five innings of a 4-0 setback at Boston on April 14.

White Sox are 5-11 in their last 16 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

White Sox are 4-9 in their last 13 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

White Sox are 17-42 in their last 59 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

White Sox are 6-18 in their last 24 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

White Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.

White Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.

Home team is 7-1 in Fairchilds last 8 games behind home plate vs. ChicagoHome team is 22-6 in Fairchilds last 28 games behind home plate vs. Baltimore.

White Sox are 12-4 in their last 16 games with Fairchild behind home plate.

Play on the Baltimore Orioles to win on the ML

Western Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3

The public is assuming that in a game 7 at home the defending Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals have an edge. However,, it must be noted the Canes won a 60.3% shot share in this series and a 58% high danger zone edge and have been one the leagues top 5 vs 5 teams in the NHL all season long. I know the Capitals have a game changer in Ovechkin, but the team as a whole just don't look as cohesive as last season, and with no Barry Trottz behind the bench, and key cog TJ Oshie out the Caps are simply just not as dangerous, and susceptible to being upset here by a side that I feel is every bit as good as the Caps. To simply put it there is just enough value for us to pull he trigger .

WASHINGTON is 4-11 ATS in home games when attempting to close out a playoff series since 1996.

Play on the Carolina Canes to win on the ML

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 5 - HOU Leads 3-1

Harden and the Houston Rockets are not an easy team to play against, but Utah as time has gone in this series, look to be catching on to ways to slow this behemoth side down.  In game 3 they were the better team , and they still lost, but in game 4 they dominated and won . In the L/2 meetings of this series the Rockets have been held to a 35.2 % FG conversion rate, and  in game 4  the Rockets were held  to a 97.8 offensive rating as the Jazz owned the Rockets in the paint  while allowing them to convert just 47.6% around the rim. Here in game 5, I don't think the Jazz can do as much damage as last time, but their toughness and resiliency make them a viable side investment option at this number The public loves the Rockets and with all the money coming in on them you think the line would go the other way, but the books have chopped a half point off the opener knowing that contrarian market moves have been  coming in this tilt. I like our  edge here, and recommend we take the points with a side fighting for its play off lives.

D'Antoni is 18-35 ATS  in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996. 

Play on Utah Jazz to cover

MERRILL KELLY (R) vs. JORDAN LYLES (R)

LYLES the Pirates starter is 13-41 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997. (Team's Record) LYLES is 2-4 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 6.80 and a WHIP of 1.762. The DBacks  have faired well here in Pittsburgh over the last few seasons winning 7 of their 8 games, and get my support again on a value line.

 ARIZONA is 30-17  against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons

ARIZONA is 24-13 against the money line in road games vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse over the last 2 seasons. 

MLB   favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (PITTSBURGH) - poor hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against an average starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20) -NL, starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are  12-35 L/5 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arizona to win on the ML

TREVOR BAUER (R) vs. GERRIT COLE (R)

Houstons starter tonight Cole, finished fifth in the 2018 American League Cy Young Award voting with an 15-5 record and 2.88 ERA, is off to just a 1-3 start with a 5.22 ERA this season. Thanks to his reputation and that of his teammates he is still listed a hefty favorite despite of going against a top tier hurler in the Tribes Trevor Bauer.Bauer (2-1, 2.20), and finished sixth in last year's Cy Young voting behind Cole, is a perfect 7-0 with a 3.18 ERA in eight career starts against the Astros and gets my support here tonight on a value line. 

HINCH is 6-15  against the money line vs. struggling power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game as the manager of HOUSTON .

Play on Cleveland to win on the ML

Eastern Conference Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 1

The Bruins got here by taking out the Toronto Maple Leafs, in a brutal seven-game series. Meanwhile, Columbus , upset the the President Cup champs TB in a surprising 4-0 game sweep. One teams exhausted, and one fresh but rusty, and now they go head to head tonight in game 1 of their series. The Bruins don't have the legs to rocknroll here in wide open fashion , and thats not their modus operandi anyway, while the Jackers may take time to into a flow after a long layoff. Both rank near the bottom of the league in pace, anyway so this game should see a transition type attack from both sides. Add to that two top tier goalies in the Bruins Tuukka Rask and the Jackets,Sergei Bobrovsky and we have a formula for a fairly low scoring game that does not eclipse the total.

Tuukka Rask, who captured Vezina Trophy honors in 2014, has a 9-4-2 record with a 2.67 GAA and .904 save percentage in his career against the Blue Jackets.

Two-time Vezina Trophy recipient Sergei Bobrovsky silenced some critics by turning aside 109 of 117 shots against Tampa Bay.

BOSTON is 8-1 UNDER off a home win against a division rival this season. BOSTON is 7-0 UNDER in home games after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game this season.

 
NHL Road teams where the total is 5.5 (COLUMBUS) - after 3 straight wins by 2 goals or more against opponent after scoring 3 goals or more in 2 straight games are 52-21 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - DEN Leads 3-2 

 This series is getting more physical, and both sides are figuring the other sides schemes out. Last time out we saw a lower scoring affair, and Im betting nothing changes here tonight, especially considering the Spurs have to fight for their playoff lives to force a deciding seventh game in Denver on Saturday.

In the last 14 seasons , betting the under in Game 6 and 7 of a playoff series has gone 96-65 UNDER  for a just under 60% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - an excellent offensive team (102 or more PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 or more PPG), after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games are 99-57 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

MASAHIRO TANAKA (R) vs. TREVOR CAHILL (R)

Tanaka bounced back from a loss to pitch seven  strong innings of one-run ball vs the Royals in his last trip to the  hill  and has  lasted into the sixth inning in four of his five efforts and looks to be getting stronger . Meanwhile, Cahill his Angels pitching opponent , has some troubling numbers, that indicate teams are seeing the ball well against him. Note: Cahill gave up only eight homers in 110 innings last year but has already equalled that total in 26 1/3 innings  this year. The Yankees despite of being banged up have enough talent in their offensive lineup to really put a deep ball hurt on Cahill and the Halos, making them my choice here on the ML. 

LA ANGELS are 0-9  against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.90 or better over the last 2 seasons. 

NY YANKEES are 23-9  against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. 

TANAKA is 3-0 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 1.59 and a WHIP of 0.958 and his team has won all 6 of his career starts vs the Halos. 

Play on the NY Yankees to win on the ML

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - DEN Leads 3-2

Denver looked good last time out, but this Spurs team has for some reason, struggled on the road this season, so I was not completely surprised  when they lost the key game 5 in the Mile High City.  The Spurs are 33-10 SU home this season and have an edge here on their own floor against almost anyone in this league. When the going gets tough having a guy like Popvich in your corner is a good thing . Note: The Spurs behind Popovich are bankroll expanding 30-17-2 ATS in Games 5-7. 

SAN ANTONIO is 24-5 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent this season and is 13-2 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. 

SAN ANTONIO is 21-8 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season. 

Play on San Antonio to cover 

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