Alex Smart

Yankees starter James Paxton (15-6, 3.82 ERA, 186 SO)exited after just 2 1/3 innings in Game 2 in Houston, even though he allowed only one run on four hits. Neither Paxton nor manager Aaron Boone believed the lefty was giving his pitches away. It was simply time to get the starter out of the game. Paxton went 7-3 with a 3.35 ERA in 15 home games this season and Im betting he has another top tier effort here tonight in desperation mode. Meanwhile,Astros starter Justin Verlander (21-6, 2.58 ERA, 300 SO) looked  to back in top form after his last ALCS start, allowing just two runs on an Aaron Judge homer in 6 2/3 innings as the Astros won, 3-2. In three playoff starts against the Yankees as an Astro, Verlander has a 1.19 ERA and 28 strikeouts. More of the same here today in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total.

Under is 4-1 in Verlanders last 5 starts vs. Yankees.

Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 playoff games.Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 vs. American League West.Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 League Championship games.

Under is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 playoff games.Under is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 vs. American League East.

Under is 15-2 in umpire Danleys last 17 games behind home plate vs. Houston including 6 straight unders in Astros games.Under is 19-5-3 in Danleys last 27 games behind home plate.Under is 9-4-1 in Danleys last 14 games behind home plate vs. New York.

MLB team (NY YANKEES) - after a game where they committed 4 or more fielding errors, with a tired bullpen - after 3 straight games throwing 4+ innings are 32-10 L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 I think alot of bettors feel FAU is the better team, and that the way the media has portrayed them here for this Friday night matchup and now the linesmakers are taking the lead by making the Owls favorites in a game that should be closer to a FG (-3). But according to my power ranking numbers Marshall is under rated and deserves my support getting points. It must be noted that FAU ranks 96th in the country in yard per play  on offense and defense while Marshall is ranked 44th in YPP and 68th on defence. I also like Marshalls offensive line, better than Florida Atantic's group and they way they protect their run game, which makes for long grinding drives, which will take FAU out of their  flow when they finally get the ball. To this point in the season Marshall has struggled with Red Zone efficiency thanks to some very unlucky circumstances , bad calls, and just about everything under the sun, but Im expecting that to change. 

FLA ATLANTIC is 1-9 ATS l/10 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

Lane Kiffin’s  is just 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS in back-to-back tilts at FAU Stadium. 

CFB Road underdogs (MARSHALL) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 32-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Marshall to cover 

Northwestern is a team that bases its strength on defense as their offence is anemic and  atrocious and tonight against an explosive Ohio State offence Im betting they limit big plays and eat up clock in methodical fashion.  As I just mentioned the Cats offense is one of the worst  in the  nation., Northwestern ranks No. 5 overall on defense and 124th on offense and    rank   last in the nation in yards-per-play, points-per-play, and explosive play percentage conversion rate.Tonight Northwestern's excruciatingly slow paced offense will be taking on a over powering Ohio State defense that’s only allowing 8.8 ypg via just 3.7 yards per play and  which ranks second in the nation in defensive havoc.If the Wildcats a side that is averaging just 14.4 ppg (3rd worst int he country) get shutout tonight I wont be surprised . Also Im expecting the Buckeyes to not open their playbook to much this week with Wisconsin on deck for next week, and instead use their  run game quite a bit today, something that they have used more often this season than in recent years ranking 15th in the country in  run play percentage plays. You don't have to be a mathematician to see the writing on the wall that this game has value for under bettors.

OHIO ST is 7-0 UNDER after gaining 475 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.

NORTHWESTERN is 10-1 UNDER  after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons with the combined average of 40.8 ppg scored.

NORTHWESTERN  L/22 games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons has seen a combined average of 45 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

  Well rested Pittsburgh goes against a struggling Syracuse side this week .  Pittsburgh has just one loss and contending for the ACC Coastal. Pitts key to success is their blue collar old school  defense, which is  ranked No. 2  in the nation with sacks (27)  .  Meanwhile, Syracuse is downtrodden and  just cannot move the ball consistently especially on the ground and in their 3 losses have been held to an average of  1.16 yards a carry. and have been out yarded to a tune of  (-116 YPG) vs FBS opposition.Tonight Im betting Pittsburgh D controls the line of scrimmage and their offence does more than enough damage against a porous Orange D,   and subsequently takes care of business here on the road. 

Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in October.Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Orange are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.Panthers are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Play on the Pittsburgh Panthers to cover