Alex Smart

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Im betting the Pistons will score above the linesmakers projections today and that the Suns will be forced to open up in a game that eclipses the offered total. Over is 9-4 in Suns last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Over is 3-0-1 in Pistons last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

DETROIT is 7-0 OVER  in home games in non-conference games this season with a combined average of 227.8 ppg scored.

PHOENIX is 32-18 OVER in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 223.1 ppg scored in this 50 games. 

NBA  teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DETROIT) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games are 71-38 OVER L/26 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

NAVY is 9-0 ATS  as a road favorite or pick over the last 2 seasons.

Navy has won the their L/4 visits to Boston U. 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

We know which side is superior between the Visiting Suns and their hosts the Pistons . However, it it must be noted that the Pistons have won 3 of their L/4 overall and covered 5 of their L/8 and have been playing very competitive ball on their own home floor as is evident by winning 4 in a row in Motown and 5 of their L/6 . The Pistons have  also been showing some cohesion, and from a betting perspective against strong sides have been generally good bets for a while now. Note: DETROIT is 21-9 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. With this being the Suns 7th road game in their L/9 trips to the hardwood, in a condensed period of time ( Dec 31-Jan 16) it wont surprise me if the Suns are on tired legs and less likely to have enough gas in the tank to easily steam roll the rested Pistons who will play only their 2nd game in 5 days, making getting points here with the home dog a viable wagering opportunity. 

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (DETROIT) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 147-87 ATS L/26 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.( Suns took out the Pistons 114-103 at home back on Dec 2)

DETROIT is 11-2 ATS  in home games in January games over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road favorites of 10 or more points (PHOENIX) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a top-level team ( 75% or more ) playing a terrible team (25% or less ) are 18-45 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Suns are 3-14 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Detroit. Suns are 9-27 ATS in the last 36 meetings.

Play on Detroit to cover 

For the most part Ben Rothlisberger had a great career but now father time has caught up with him, and their does not look to be much left in the tank . With that said, Im betting he and the Steelers have problems today on offense against a under rated KC defense. The Steelers because of their obvious offensive short comings will be prepared to play a grinding game that will concentrate on short passes and their running game which will eat clock time. On the flipsdie the Steelers D, after some ugly efforts pulled themselves together lately allowing 3 of their L/4 opponents no more than 13 points, and must not be underestimated in their ability to slow down the Chiefs , especially on what is expected to be a windy cold night in KC this Sunday. 

PITTSBURGH is 29-12 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points with a combined average of 42.7 ppg scored.

KANSAS CITY is 14-3 UNDER L/17  as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points with the average combined score clicking in at 34.4 ppg. 

NFL Road teams against the total (PITTSBURGH) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 53-17 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL team against the total (KANSAS CITY/PITTSBURGH) - in the Wild Card round of the playoffs are 52-22 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

NFC Playoffs - Wild Card

The Cowboys explosive  offense goes against a staunch defense ranked second in the league against the rush and fifth in the league in sacks with 48. On the flip side the 49ers, have won 8 of their L/10 overall and must also  not be underestimated from a offensive perspective behind Jimmy Garoppolo and have an overall edge here according to my projections. 

DALLAS is 1-8 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. 

Dallas is 3-10 SU/ATS in the playoffs dating back 25 seasons , including 1-6 ATS as a favorite. 

DALLAS is 14-34 ATS  after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games . 

NFL Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (370 or more  YPG) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 33-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home teams (DALLAS) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 23-52 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate.

Play on SF 49ers to cover 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

 Brooklyn has been playing inconsistent hoops  of late and are just 4-6 SU L/10 2-8 ATS L/10  and have not won back to back games since late December. If their recent history mimics their inadequacies lately the Nets after a victory last time out will come out with a down effort vs a side that has is in strong form of late as is evident by winning 4 of their L/5 overall. Note: Nets are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win and are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.

BROOKLYN is 1-9 ATS  after a win by 10 points or more this season.

CLEVELAND is 15-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and  are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Cavaliers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home game

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

NBA Road teams (BROOKLYN) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (104 or less PPG), after scoring 68 points or more in the first half last game are 16-47  ATS L/26 seasons for a go against  75% conversion rate.

Play on Cleveland to cover 

Philadelphia has been playing some strong ball of late but with this being their 6th game in 9 days are on tired legs. Also if Bradly Beal comes out of Quarantine today for Washington I wont be surprised if the Wizards take this game SU. Advantage Wizards taking points. 

WASHINGTON is 8-1 ATS  at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season. WASHINGTON is 16-5 ATS  after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.

PHILADELPHIA is 11-23 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Underdogs (WASHINGTON) - off a home loss, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 143-89 ATS L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two poor offensive teams (104-108 PPG), after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 10-37 L/26 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington to cover 

Memphis had a 11 game win streak end last time out, but Im betting on a bounce back effort here tonight vs a Chicago side that is struggling as is evident by a current 3 game losing skein and losses in 4 of their L/5 with their only win coming against Detroit. 

MEMPHIS is 14-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. MEMPHIS is 14-3 ATS in January games over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - after a loss by 6 points or less against opponent after a blowout loss by 20 points or more are 4-34 L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.9 which qualifies on this ATS line offering. 

NBA Underdogs (CHICAGO) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 19-62 ATS L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Memphis Grizzlies 

Indiana is really struggling having lost 9 of their L/10 and  are just  1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. I know that the Clippers have not played much better, and have their two top players out ( Leonard, George) but here at home have enough edges to get us a win and cover. Note: Pacers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

INDIANA is 9-19 ATS  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons.

A CLIPPERS are 21-9 ATS  after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two poor offensive teams (104-108 PPG), after a combined score of 195 points or less are 28-2 L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.1 . 

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.