Alex Smart

The Nuggets will be without Harris, Jamal Murray (ankle), and Paul Millsap (knee) on Sunday. That directly puts the Nuggets at a disadvantage and has me taking the points with a hard working Indiana  team on a 4 game win streak  that deserves our respect. 

NBA  team vs the money line (DENVER) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 30-11 SU L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Play on Indiana to cover 

The two teams played Wednesday in Miami, with the Heat producing a 106-100 victory. However, Im betting on a much faster pace being set here as the Spurs on their own home floor will play at fast out of transition. Last time out the Spurs took part in a 121-120 loss to Atlanta, and in the recent past SAN ANTONIO is 8-0 OVER  after a loss by 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 235.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 OVER  in non-conference games this season with the average combined score of 230.9 ppg. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (MIAMI) - off an road win scoring 110 or more points, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-7 OVER L/23 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 234.1 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

SIU is 7-1 at home this year and has won six-straight home game. Its truly a hard place for visiting teams to play. 

This year, SIU is 2-0 at home vs. MVC teams, with wins over Illinois State and Valpo.SIU leads the MVC and ranks 21st nationally (of 353) in scoring defense, allowing just 60.8 points per game. In its two MVC wins, SIU held both Illinois State and Valpo to their season scoring low.

While S.Illinois has played lights out at home,  Drake has struggled to finish away from Des Moines, falling 66-61 at Valparaiso Jan. 11 and dropping an eight-point decision at Bradley.

 ILLINOIS is 6-0 ATS  as a home favorite or pick this season.

S.Illinois to cover 

We all know how explosive the Chiefs offence is , but Im sure the Titans plan is to try to keep QB Patrick Mahomes off the field as much as possible by pounding the rock on the ground via    Derrick Henry . It must be noted that the Titans offense has averaged 198 rushing yards per game with him hugging the ball  over his last 8 games (5.9 yards per carry) . Odds are highly likely that more success is on board this Sunday vs a Chiefs D, that has   allowed 4.9 yards per carry and were ranked  29th in defensive rushing DVOA.   

TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons.

Reid is 4-13 ATS  in home games against AFC South division opponents in all games he has coached since 1999.

Teams like the Titans  off breaking the 100-yard plateau on the ground,   29-16 SU and 31-13-1 ATS in the followup and  are a bankroll expanding  20-5 ATS  for their backers against opposition  coming off a  big double-digit win like the Chiefs achieved . Also, underdogs +7  or more have gone 37-26-1 (59%) against the spread in the playoffs, including 9-2 ATS in conference championships or later. Add to that NFL teams who are off  scoring 40 or more points in a playoff game like KC are  1-14-1 ATS L/15 as chalk dating back 24 seasons. 

Play on the Tennessee Titans to cover 

After being embarrassed by a 37-8 count by the SF 49ers back in November, Im betting the Packers learned a great deal from thier humiliation and will be prepared to bounce back here and make a game of this behind a defence that prior to win vs Seattle last week had held their L/5 regular season opponents to an average of 14.2 ppg. 

The Packers  head coach Matt LaFleur, has been a bankroll expanding  11-6 ATS (24.9% ROI), as an  underdog this season while the 49ers  have seen underdogs cash at a 11-5-1 ATS clip against them this season.  LaFleur was the offensive coordinator for Shannahan on three separate teams in his career and knows him as well or better than anyone in football. 

Green Bay to cover