Alex Smart

Dodgers starter Flaherty is off his  worst start with his new team. On Saturday against the Atlanta Braves, the veteran righty allowed four runs on five hits in three innings in a ugly 10-1 loss and projects for another average at best start . Meanwhile, the Marlins start Cabrera Cabrera who is a walk machine issuing  4.4 per nine innings Yes, he has elite fastball, but the Dodgers hit those kind of pitchers very hard. His last couple of appearances have been strong, but it must be note EDWARD CABRERA  after giving up 2  or less earned runs in his last 2 outings has seen a combined average 9.5 rpg go on the board with the opposition producing  an average of 7.5 rpg across  the plate. 

Note: JACK FLAHERTY road starts in September games have gone over 6 straight times dating back to the 2022 campaign with a combined average of 14.5 rpg scored .

LA Dodgers games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season have gone 23-7 to the over with a combined average of 11 rpg scored.

LA Dodgers games vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are 15-4 over with a combined 12.4 rpg scored.

SKIP SCHUMAKER road games vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are 10-1 OVER with a combined average of 13.8 rpg scored.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 70 games (+18.90 Units / 25% ROI)

Miami in home games this season are 53-18 OVER with a combined average of 10.2 rpg scored.Miami games as a home underdog of +150 to +200 have gone over 15 of 18 times with a combined average of 12.3 rpg scored. Miami home games in day games this season are 23-6 OVER with a combined average of 11.1 rpg scored.

Miami home games vs. an NL team with an slugging percentage of .440 or better in the second half of the season are a perfect 6-0 OVER dating back to last season with a combined average of 13.5 rpg scored.

The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 77 games at home (+32.15 Units / 38% ROI)

Play over

South Alabama lost a pair of  defensive masterminds on the coaching staff from last season, and their winningest QB is now gone, as is a 1000 yard rusher and their top reciever. This reorganized Jaguars program has looked problematic on D so far this season, allowing North Texas  415 yards and three touchdowns and than falling asleep at the proverbial wheel at the wheel vs  Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro allowing him a  71% pass completion rate. Yes, the  the Jaguars’ put  87 points on the board vs a  swiss cheese Northwestern State D  were the most in a single game in school history and now Im betting on immediate big time  regression after that crazy non stop output. 

Meanwhile, . App State finished last season by  winning five of its last six to make the conference title game and have now won 17 of their L/20 here in Boone and deserve respect a favs in this venue. The Mountaineers rank 33rd nationally in returning production with almost 70% of group coming back from the 2023 squad including  star quarterback Joey Aguilar. I know they got clobbered by Clemson in their oponer and had to battle back form a 16 point deficit in a come  back won  against E.Carolina last time out. But after those two sub par efforts should now be ready for a top tier effort in their conference oponer. 

Im betting on this being a game where Joey Agilar shines vs a D with a below average secondary. I know the App states run game seems a little bit choppy to start the season, but the pass game remains dangerous and will have a slot of success in this spot.

App State has won the L/4 meetings as hosts in this series, and have won the L/3 meetings overall by 31-7, 30-3 and 52-7 counts. 

 Alabama when playing against a team with a winning record.are 0-5 ATs L/5.

Play on App State to cover

These two teams the Jets and Pats  have  stayed under the total in their L/ 4 head to head matchups with an average combined score of 24.3 combined ppg going on the board. When considering this game takes place on a Thursday night-it must be noted that  NFL games on that night  have stayed under the total 15 of the L/17 times with a 41 point or less Totals offering from the books.  Finally these teams are both playing .500 ball this season, which sets up well for a lower scoring affair, with  a line of 44 kor less - In tilts featuring evenly matched records they  have failed to eclipse the total 13 of the L/15 times ( 44 pts or less). Ive seen nothing from positive from these offenses that will turn me off this being a lower scoring snooze feast affair. Note:, The Pats own  a Net EPA of +0.09 and NY Jets  have recorded  a Net EPA of -0.01-New England is Top 5 in the league in run frequency over the first two week of this season and on the flipside QB Aaron rodgers is still not 100% after repairing his achilles and will also be letting the run game develop around him as he gets more comfortable in the pocket.  With that said, Im betting a grinding affair that stays on the low side of the number.

New England games off a non-conference game.- have gone under 5 straight times with a combined average of 27 ppg scored.

Robert Saleh away or neutral games in September games is 5-0 UNDER with ana verage of 33.2 ppg scored.

Play under 

Dbacks starter  Gallen   in his most recent outing versus the Brewers on September 15, gave up three earned on six hits and two walks in 5 innings for a no-decision and according to my projections similar data should be recorded in the rematch. Meanwhile,  the Brewers are sending  Colin Rea to the hill. The right hander owns a  12-5 record but a slightly elevated  4.14 ERA in 29 games (25 starts). Rea  has recorded a  4.52 ERA in 91 career games (74 starts) and projects to allow plus 3 runs in this start according to my projections. 

Note: Arizonas key offensive  cog   , Marte is 3-for-3 with a double and a home run vs Rea.Last year against Colin Rea, Marte was 3-for-3 with a double and a home run at the plate.

Arizonas starter when starting/playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) has seen him garner a 6-0 OVER record with a combined average of 14.2 rpg scored. Meanwhile, when Brewers starter COLIN REA starts as a home underdog of +100 or higher he has seen 15 of 17 starts eclipse the Total with a combined average of 12.4 rpg scored.

Arizona games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season have gone over 16 of 20 times with a combined average of 13.3 ppg scored.

Milwaukee home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start. have gone over 11 of the L/12 times, with a combined average of 10 rpg scored.

Both these offenses are in top tier form, with the Dbacks averaging 6.7 rpg of production in thier L/7 games overall, and on the flipside, the Brewers are scoring an average of 5.6 rpg in they're L/7 trips to the diamonds. 

Play over

Washington State is in a letdown spot here vs San Jose State this Friday night after their big win against instate rivals Washington last week. SJSU took out Air Force on the road,  last time out, and wont be easily intimidated here and are now 3-0 overall. Im not sold on the Cougars  D, after watching Texas Tech march up and down the filed against a couple of weeks ago, and San Jose State behind a solid offense lead by a viable QB in Emmett Brown and a  prime time  playmaker \ Nick Nash are a side that can surprise in this spot play. Note: Dating back to last season San Jose State is a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road. Washington State is 1-5/SU/0-6 ATS L/6 after playing Washington State. 

Play on San Jose State to cover