Alex Smart

Angels Kikuchi has a 2.38 ERA in four May starts, as he has  only allowed a total  6 earned runs in 22.2 innings of top tier pitching. The Halos southpaw has also flourished at home where he owns a  1.65 ERA . On the flipside - The Marlins starter. Alcantara owns a ugly 7.47 ERA in three May starts, allowing 13 earned runs in 15.2 innings of sub par hurling. Miami is also  0-6 in his last six start and it has been on the road where he struggles the most as is evident by a  14.81 ERA . The pitching matchup favors the angels who are hitting at better clip than the Marlins over the last 10 games. note: When 2 below .500 teams meet the favorite is 55-30 this season for a 65% conversion rate.

Play on the LAA on the ML

 Washington, started their season at 2-0 despite of some  injury issues, and despite of being off a loss  vs GS last time out, deserve respect here . The Ace have shown two diff looks this season getting smashed by the Liberty and then crushing the Sun. With new faces in the lineup , they may be looking to fine tune their efforts in a game that could see them regress after their last performance. 

WNBA  favorites of 10 or more points - good free throw shooting team from last season - made 76% or better of their free throws, in 1st 5 games of the season, after a game where a team made 80% of their free throws or better are 5-24 ATS since 1997.

 Since 2021  , big DD favorites of 12 points or more are 105-13 SU but just 44-74 ATS . 

Play on Washington to cover 

 Seattle  is a  5.5  favorite -despite getting smashed  by Phoenix in the first meeting of the season. The Mercury matchup well, vs this Sorm side and getting points here is a viable wagering opportunity.Seattle off a road win against a division rival are 0-6 ATS dating dating back to last season.

Play on the Mercury

N YK outplayed Indiana for almost four quarters in game 1 of this series but their defense let them down late, and they blew a DD lead. Im betting here in the rebound game , the Knicks come out bombing away again and just keep the peddle to the metal from start to finish with no let up .On the flip-side Im also betting  Indiana to also step up their offense and continue to bring offensive heat with the momentum of their comeback last time out. (Brunson seems to be a weak point of the Knicks on D, and HC Carlisle game plan will continue to push him) The Knicks offense has been exceptional for most of this season, and their built to score in bunches, ranking 9th in ppg offense and 5th in offensive rating. Meanwhile, Indiana ranked 7th in offense entering this game, and 17th in D ppg, and are and will remain vulnerable defenders despite of some glimpses of strong defensive play in their earlier rounds of these play offs. The linesmakers have pushed up the totals offering  from game 1, but rightfully so.Indiana away or neutral games after one or more consecutive overs. are 20-6 OVER this season with those games seeing a combined average of 238.9 ppg. Indiana away or neutral games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season are 10-1 OVER with a combined average of 242.2 ppg. Indiana away or neutral games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game. are 13-2 OVER L/15 with a combined average of 240.2 ppg scored.

Play over

The pitching matchup for Saturday's game will feature a pair of right-handers in San Diego's Michael King (4-2, 2.59 ERA) and Atlanta's Grant Holmes (2-3, 4.01). King has a 3.63 ERA  away  and Holmes has a 2.63 ERA at home.  Holmes has allowed two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts .

Braves offense are up-trending offensively  , hitting .280 over their last ten games compared to the San Diego Padres only hitting .210.The Atlanta  Braves are 15-8 at home this season. The Padres are 12-13 on the road tilts.

 The Atlanta Braves have hit the Money-line in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+4.60 Units / 15% ROI)

The Padres took game 1 of this series as underdogs but now Im betting on a rebound from the Braves in game 2. 

Play on the Braves to win

 Atlanta had to play two down-to-the-wire tilts against the Fever this week and will be in a big letdown situation vs a desperate winless Wings side that will be primed to grab the victory here. 

WNBA Road teams - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 12+ losses in last 15 games, terrible team from last season who won 25% or less of their games, in 1st 5 games of the season are 35-11 ATS since 1997.

Play on the Wings to cover