Handicapper Alex Smart’s NCAA Basketball Picks & Predictions

	Alex Smart
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Matchup

Selection

W/L

Fighting | Feb 21, 2026
Josh Warrington vs. Leon Woodstock

Total
10½ +135 at BUCKEYE

started

In the heart of Nottingham, at the Motorpoint Arena, Leigh Wood and Josh Warrington are set to clash in a highly anticipated rematch, kicking off with the main card at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Saturday, February 21, 2026, while ring walks for the main event are expected around 5:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, promising an afternoon of intense British boxing action.

Leigh Wood, the 37-year-old Nottingham native with a career record of 28 wins, 4 losses, and 17 knockouts, enters this bout looking to reclaim momentum after a tough stretch, having suffered a ninth-round technical knockout loss to Anthony Cacace in his last outing, which snapped a run of dramatic comebacks, including his seventh-round stoppage of Warrington in their 2023 encounter, where Wood trailed on the scorecards before unleashing a fight-ending flurry.

Josh Warrington, the 35-year-old Leeds warrior boasting 32 wins, 4 losses, 1 draw, and just 8 knockouts, has shown resilience in recent years, rebounding from back-to-back defeats with a unanimous decision victory over Asad Asif Khan in his most recent fight, yet his lower knockout percentage, around 25 percent, highlights a reliance on volume punching rather than one-shot power, often leading to wars of attrition against durable opponents.

Betting trends in featherweight and super featherweight rematches often favor fights ending inside the distance, especially when involving aggressive, high-volume stylists like these two, as seen in patterns where second meetings escalate in intensity, with stoppage rates climbing above 60 percent in grudge bouts featuring fighters over 35, reflecting the wear and tear that accumulates in closely matched rivalries, and underdogs like Warrington, who opened at plus money, tend to push for early exchanges to avoid judges' decisions.

Key angles point to vulnerabilities on both sides, Wood's limited activity since his stoppage loss, combined with his age and history of absorbing punishment before rallying, could leave him open to Warrington's relentless pressure, while Warrington's defensive lapses, evident in taking heavy damage in high-stakes scraps, make him susceptible to Wood's proven power, which has produced knockouts in over half his wins, setting up a scenario where neither fighter is likely to cruise to a full 12 rounds in this revenge-driven showdown.

Considering these elements, the standout wagering opportunity lies in the fight not going the distance, available at even money, as their explosive first meeting, coupled with current form and stylistic clash, suggests another abrupt finish, offering strong value in a matchup ripe for early drama

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup	Selection	W/L
MLB \| Sep 21, 2026 Blue Jays vs Orioles	UNDER 7½ -105	Won $100
Play Type: Free
Trends, Sharp Plays & Props for Monday, September 21, 2026 (Getaway-night hangover, three games, a 7.5 in Baltimore, and Oracle sitting at 8 like a September night is supposed to) Sunday already paid a few of the clean ones. Monday shrinks to three. Night baseball. A 7.5 at Camden. An 8 at Comerica. An 8 at Oracle. Do not invent a 15-game card. The number is talking in two spots. The rest is filler. League-Wide Vibes So Far (Late September 2026) Home clubs still hanging around 54 percent. Favorites still cashing in the mid-50s. Scoring still lives in the 4.3–4.7 neighborhood unless Colorado is involved. Colorado is not involved. Monday slates get thin. Night games. A 7.5 in Baltimore. That is how the board gets honest. Bet under 8 on Monday night slates with three games or fewer. That spot since 2025: 11-6 (64.7%) with an average total of 7.8. (+4.2 unit$, ROI=22.4%) Bet home clubs in September games posted 7.5 when both starters sit in the mid-3s to low-4s. That spot since 2025: 14-9 (60.9%). (+3.8 unit$, ROI=15.1%) The Games That Actually Matter Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles (6:35 ET) Trey Yesavage (5-5, 3.65) vs Shane Baz (6-15, 4.11). Blue Jays 77-79. Orioles 75-81. Total 7.5. Baltimore -110 to -112. This is the lowest clean number on the card. Camden in September with two righties is a grind, not a track meet. Do not get cute fading a pick’em because Yesavage has been off the board. The 7.5 is the ticket. My Plays: • UNDER 7.5 • Orioles ML • Team Prop: Blue Jays Team Total Under 3.5 • Player Props: Baz Over 4.5 K Bet under 7.5 in Orioles home games posted 7 to 7.5 in September. The Under’s record since 2025: 9-4 (69.2%) with an average over/under of 7.4. (+4.4 unit$, ROI=30.8%) Bet the home side in a September pick’em when both clubs sit under .500. Two 75-win clubs. 7.5 total. Home gets the last at-bat. (+2.1 unit$, ROI=16.4%) Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers (6:40 ET) DJ Herz vs River Ryan. Nationals 73-83. Tigers 73-83. Total 8. Detroit -150 to -156. Two arms coming back onto the card. Comerica in September with an 8 is how 8 gets tested. The juice on Detroit is the tax for playing at home, not a lock. My Plays: • UNDER 8 • Tigers ML if you cannot live without a side • Leave -1.5 • Player Props: Herz Over 4.5 K Bet under 8 in Tigers home games in September when the total opens 8 to 8.5. That spot since 2025: 8-5 (61.5%) with an average total of 8.1. (+2.4 unit$, ROI=16.8%) Bet against laying -150 or more on a .500-ish club in a three-game Monday. Same record. Same September. The number is fat for the spot. (+1.6 unit$, ROI=14.2%) Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants (9:45 ET) Zebby Matthews (9-10, 4.74) vs Blade Tidwell. Twins 73-83. Giants 64-92. Total 8. Minnesota -118. Oracle at night with an 8 is the West Coast version of Baltimore. Minnesota is the better roster on paper. Better does not always mean 8–2 by the bay. If you play this game, take the 8 and leave the fancy run line. My Plays: • UNDER 8 • Twins ML • Twins -1.5 only if you get plus juice • Player Props: Matthews Over 5.5 K Bet under 8 in Giants home night games posted 7.5 to 8.5. Oracle, September, night. That is how 8 gets honest. Since 2025: 10-6 (62.5%) with an average total of 8.0. (+3.2 unit$, ROI=18.2%) Bet Minnesota on the road when the total is 8 and the home club sits under 70 wins. 64-92 does not become a dog-killer because it is Monday. (+1.8 unit$, ROI=15.6%) Quick Hits • Monday night = lower-scoring lean. No Coors. No 11. • Do not lay -156 on Detroit if you can live with the 8. • A 7.5 in Baltimore is the cleanest total on the board. • An 8 at Oracle is the quiet hammer of the late window. • Plus money in San Francisco is the dog of the night if you need one. Smart Money — Top 5 Recommended Bets Monday Under 7.5, Blue Jays at Orioles — lowest total, September night. Under 8, Twins at Giants — Oracle night, 8. Orioles ML vs Toronto — pick’em, last at-bat. Under 8, Nationals at Tigers — two rusty arms, Comerica. Twins ML at San Francisco — better club, fair price. Little Prop Parlay: Baz Over 4.5 K + Matthews Over 5.5 K + Herz Over 4.5 K. September baseball is part pennant math, part hoping the bullpen you trusted does not spontaneously combust. Always check final pitchers. Things change fast. Shop the number. Enjoy the games, bet the tickets that pay, and may that 7.5 in Baltimore hold up long enough to start the Monday card clean.
Matchup	Selection	W/L
NFL \| Sep 21, 2026 Giants vs Rams	Giants +7 -120 at betus	Lost $120.0
Play Type: Premium
Seven on Monday night at SoFi is a lot of juice for a series that just finished 26-25. I want the points. Giants +7. Not because Los Angeles forgot how to play at home. Because the last chapter was one point, the last true SoFi meeting was 17-9, and the board is asking the Rams for a touchdown after they just needed a last-possession job in New Jersey. You are not betting New York to win. You are betting they do not lose by eight after they already lost by one. 24-20 cashes. 27-23 cashes. 26-25 again is the gift. The moneyline is a dart. The number is the work. Public will hammer the home logo because it is Monday night, it is SoFi, and 0-1 looks like it needs a statement. That is how plus-7 walks up looking like a dog instead of a number that already showed up. The football reference book: Rams lead the all-time series 30-17. Last 10 is Giants 6-4 if you stretch it back to 2003. The recent book is not that. Last four: Rams 26-25 at MetLife (2023), Rams 38-11 at MetLife (2021), Rams 17-9 at SoFi (2020), Rams 51-17 at MetLife (2017). Four straight Los Angeles. Two blowouts. One eight-point home win. One one-point road win. Seven is fading the 26-25 and pricing the 38-11. SoFi specifically: 2020 was Giants 9, Rams 17. Combined 26. The board is hanging 47.5–48 and asking both clubs for a track meet they have not printed in this building against each other. The 2016 “Rams home” game was Twickenham, Giants 17-10. The last real Inglewood meeting stayed inside a score. Giants are 1-0 after 28-20 over Dallas. Rams are 0-1 after 27-7 to San Francisco in Australia. That is one week. The series tape is 47 games and the last one was decided by a point. Bet New York plus the number as a road underdog of 6.5 to 7.5 at Los Angeles. Last meeting: 26-25 Rams. Margin of 1. Last four: Rams, but two of those four stayed inside a score. (+1.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%) Bet the dog in this series when the previous meeting finished inside a field goal. 2023 was 26-25. 2001 was 15-14. The series still prints one-score games when it is not a 38-11 night. (+2.0 unit$, ROI=60.6%) Bet against a home favorite of 6.5 to 7.5 in a Monday rematch of a one-point game. Last score 51 combined. Total sitting 47.5–48. The side is the cleaner ticket than the 48. (+1.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%) Play: Giants +7.

PREMIUM PICK STREAKS

SERVICE BIO
Experience & Awards I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. My picks have been documented for 22 years. I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigious event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006. I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years. I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. Handicapping Approach I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat. My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement. Sports Betting Is An Investment Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable. I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched. In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool. I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor! This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously! Money Management To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll. If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets. This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality. Here are some additional guidelines I recommend. 1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources. 2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea. 3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture. 4. Dont Buy off the hook on key numbers.(long term bettors) For weekend warriors use your discretion 5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling. 6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base. These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits. I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself. *All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit).

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years.

My picks have been documented for 22 years.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigious event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.

I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years.

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis.

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures.

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Dont Buy off the hook on key numbers.(long term bettors) For weekend warriors use your discretion

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit).

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