Alex Smart

Coming off a game vs nationally ranked Virginia will have VMI ready to compete here vs a Chattanooga side that they matchup well against in this conference opener. 

UT-CHATTANOOGA is 8-18 ATS L/26 in all home games over the last 3 seasons. 

UT-CHATTANOOGA is 2-9 ATS  in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons and is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or more  of their attempts over the last 3 seasons and is 6-15 ATS  versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 season. 

The Keydets have taken three of the past four matchups including a season sweep last year (70-69 at Chattanooga, 68-65 in Lexington).VMI is 2-0 SU/ATS L/2 visits here.

Play on VMI to cover 

at Talking Stick Resort Arena - Phoenix, AZ

Nevada (9-0) is off to its best start in school history and is currently 5-0 during a six-game road trip, with 25 days between home games. Thanks to this big time start, they are being made hefty DD chalk in a neutral court environment.But the 5-3 Antelopes, who are coached by Dan Majerle, who spent a good portion of his professional career in the Valley of Sun must not be underestimated in their ability to cover this number and be fairly competitive vs a behemoth side.In two of their losses, Grand Canyon let a late lead slip away against Seton Hall  and a slow start saw them lose to Utah despite of not looking out of place and at times dominated that game. Since those two losses, however they have won two straight, defeating LaSalle and Boise State and come in here with momentum. 

Play on Grand Canyon to cover 

The Pelicans and Anthony Davis come into Motown to play a banged up group of Pistons hobbled by injuries. Davis  loves to play against the Pistons as is evident by averaging  30.4 points in 10 games against them, his highest career mark against any opponent. Im betting he will flourish again against a team that will have rotational issues with player personal adjustments expected. 

DETROIT is 4-14 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons.DETROIT is 19-38 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. 

The Pistons are own a ugly 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS record in this series, including 1-5 SUATS the last six at home.

Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover 

The Knicks in their current form don't inspire bettors, but my projections estimate this line to be bloated, making the Hornets fade material in this spot. Also the Hornets are off a hard fought win vs Denver last time out. I watched part of that game and you could tell this  Charlotte team was working hard and playing with intensity, which Im betting will have them in a natural letdown situation here today vs a side that not only does not inspire bettors, but their opposition as well. 

CHARLOTTE is 11-29 ATS against Atlantic division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Hornets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Hornets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Hornets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Knicks are 6-1 ATS L/7 overall in this series and 4-0 SU/ATS  L/4 here at home in MSG. 

Play NY Knicks to cover 

 The public is all over the Saints here this week against the lowly Bucs. But it must be noted from a long term historical trends perspective this type of fav bet is not a very good one as NFL Road teams (NEW ORLEANS) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less last game , which happened last time  out, are just 6-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. It must also be noted that the Saints are just 3-4 in the stats battles in their L/7 and off a ugly loss to Dallas last week, Im betting we a have a public favourite that Im betting won't live up to expectations here on the road this week in TB a place where Drew Brees and company have lost their last two trips. 

HC Payton is 2-11 ATS in road games after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. Bucks are 6-1 ATS L/7 as home dogs and 3-0 SU/ATS L/3.

Take the points with the TB Bucs 

Im very surprised at how badly the San Antonio Spurs have performed this season, and how atrocious their defence has been overall. With that said, and  from a matchup perspective when factoring in player vs player and system vs system, Utah matches up very well vs their hosts and get my support here based on some long standing strategies I've had success with over the years from a long term perspective. Note:  The Jazz set a franchise record with 20 three-pointers made in Monday's win over San Antonio, shooting 60.6 percent (20-33) from beyond the arc on their way to their 34-point win. 

 I know the Spurs showed some life last time out coming from behind to win 130-122 vs the Lakers, but they exerted a great deal of energy in that game, and could suffer the effects of that hard work here vs a physical Utah Jazz team.Note: The Spurs, haven't won back-to-back games since winning four straight in an eight-day span Oct. 27-Nov. 3 and Im betting they falter here today. 

Utah is off a 118-91 win vs Houston last time out. 

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (UTAH) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 70-13 L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors with the combined average point differential clicking in at 9.8 pg.

NBA Home underdogs (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 15-45 L/22 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Utah to cover 

The Devils  have been struggling of late losing 6 of their L/7 despite notching a win last Time out and do not travel well as they are  just 5-17 in their last 22 road games.Devils are also 1-4 in their last 5 vs. Western Conference and are 1-5 in their last 6 games following a win. Meanwhile, Anaheim despite of a boatload full of injuries are overall performing quite well, despite of a loss last time out Carolina 4-1 that halted a 5 game win streak. Note:Anaheim is 20-7 ATS  after a blowout loss by 3 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons and Im betting they bounce back here tonight. 

NEW JERSEY is 4-13 ATS against poor defensive teams  29  or more shots on goal, convert 17% or more pp this season.

ANAHEIM is 17-4 ATS  in home games after playing 2 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons.

NHL favorite against the money line (ANAHEIM) - after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game against opponent after scoring 6 goals or more in their previous game are 52-11 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Anaheim to win on the money line 

 These two teams are struggling despite of having very talented QBS. Green Bay has struggled so much they fired their long time coach McCarthy.  Meanwhile, Atlanta has lost 4 straight. The quarterback matchup will be in the spotlight and Im betting will produce some offensive fireworks, as both teams look to blast off and out of their slumps with aggressive actions. It must be noted  the Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan's numbers do match his teams record as he has  completed 70.9 percent of his passes with 25 touchdowns, five interceptions and a 109.3 rating. Meanwhile, Rodgers considered one of the leagues top pivots is also  a streaky QB, but could explode and go at a run at any time . But from a historical standpoint one can see how talented he is by looking at how accurate and instinctive s he has been in his career having  thrown 336 consecutive passes without being picked off and is closing in on Tom Brady's NFL-record 358 record.

GREEN BAY is 12-1 OVER after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. GREEN BAY is 8-1 OVER vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. 

Over is 7-2 in Packers last 9 games in December.Over is 21-7 in Packers last 28 vs. NFC.Over is 12-3 in Packers last 15 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.Over is 4-1-1 in Falcons last 6 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

The last 3 meetings in this series have seen a combined  (67.3 ppg ) go on the board. 

Play OVER 

The Panthers QB Cam Newton is throwing alot of interceptions of late, and now this week I expect the Panthers to go to the ground a great deal and play hard fought defensive brand of physical football. It must be noted that Cleveland has gone UNDER 14 straight times when they are off a road game and facing a non-divisional opponent that has endured  a negative takeaway margin in each of their last two games, as long as they are not getting more than TD.The  Browns are  also 0-20 to the UNDER at home off an ATS loss by more than five points when they are facing a side that is under .600 on the season and they are not more than a FG favorite. Im expecting this to be a hard part affair that stays on the low side of the Total.

Panthers are 1-5 O/U vs NFC South and 1-4 O/U L5 non-conference  home game. The L/4 meetings in this series have seem a combined average of 32 ppg scored. 

CLEVELAND is 15-4 UNDER L/19 against NFC South division opponents with a combined average of 36.7 ppg scored.Williams is 7-0 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 32.2 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, in December games are 25-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The KC Chiefs are explosive offensively but they have really struggled on D ranking 2nd to last last in the league . Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens own the best defense in the league and a viable enough offence to put a boat load full of points on the board vs this type of porous side. It must also be noted that the Ravens are strong  12-0  ATS L/12 as a underdog on a natural surface when they are playing a team with a better record than them and must not be underestimated in their ability to slow down the Chiefs here. Baltimore is also 11-1 ATS in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 375 or more yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.  Chiefs are fun to watch but they have some short comings, and as public favs look week in this spot. Remember despite of  10-2 this season,  5 wins have come vs dregs like  Browns,, Bengals, , Raiders ,Cardinals and 49ers. 

Baltimore has won their L/3 visits to KC and get the nod here again.

Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover 

Carolina has lost 4 straight games despite of winning the stats battles in the L/3 tilts and  are now .500 on the  season and desperately need a win here this week to have hopes of being in the NFL playoff picture.  This week I expect the Panthers get what they so desperately want, vs a Cleveland team that despite showing promise,  are being out gained  -63 YPG during the 2nd half of the season behind a 30th ranked defense .  note: HC Ron Rivera is 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS career mark during the final four games of the season when coming off a loss . Rivera is also 8-0 ATS  in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games as the coach of CAROLINA. 

CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more  yards/play over the last 3 seasons.CLEVELAND is 3-15 ATS  vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 3 seasons. CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. 

NFL Home teams (CLEVELAND) - good rushing team (4.5 or more YPR) against a team with an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.5 YPR), after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game are 5-23 ATS L/35 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Carolina to cover 

The Broncos at press time of this recommended investment option are 6-point favorites on the road against the San Francisco 49ers. The line was bet up  squarely from 3.5 on the opener, by public money, but after the rapid upswing in that movement ,sharp bettors came in with their money on the home underdog and rightly so based on line value alone. Despite of the Broncos current 3-0 run and the Niners dismal back to back blowout  losses at the hands of Seattle 43-16 last week and TB the week before 27-9  I still believe that the Niners can bounce back here at home or at least be very competitive. In the 49ers L/2 home efforts before the above mentioned road fiascos they beat up an up-trending Oakland side 34-3 and stayed very close vs a better than advertised NY Giants group 27-23. With that said , Im betting on the disrespected home dog, to stand tall here and get us the cover behind the arm of a improving QB Mullens who has  completed 64.5% of his passes for 1,147 yards, seven touchdowns, and  has also posted a 91.5 passer rating so far this season and must not be underestimated. I am also betting on a SF side that was ranked 10th vs the run before last Sundays tilt vs the Seahawks to rebound this week, and slow the Broncos key mode of moving the chains  running back Phillip Lindsay,

Broncos are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.Broncos are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 14.Broncos are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game

Play on the 49ers to cover