Alex Smart Alex Smart
Alex Smart Sports -Where winning means everything. Get the bankroll expanding info the books do not want you to have.
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Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jan 19, 2020
Pacers vs Nuggets
+2 -110 at 5Dimes
Play Type: Premium

The Nuggets will be without Harris, Jamal Murray (ankle), and Paul Millsap (knee) on Sunday. That directly puts the Nuggets at a disadvantage and has me taking the points with a hard working Indiana  team on a 4 game win streak  that deserves our respect. 

NBA  team vs the money line (DENVER) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 30-11 SU L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Play on Indiana to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jan 19, 2020
Heat vs Spurs
OVER 220½ -109 Lost
Play Type: Premium

The two teams played Wednesday in Miami, with the Heat producing a 106-100 victory. However, Im betting on a much faster pace being set here as the Spurs on their own home floor will play at fast out of transition. Last time out the Spurs took part in a 121-120 loss to Atlanta, and in the recent past SAN ANTONIO is 8-0 OVER  after a loss by 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 235.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 OVER  in non-conference games this season with the average combined score of 230.9 ppg. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (MIAMI) - off an road win scoring 110 or more points, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-7 OVER L/23 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 234.1 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Jan 19, 2020
Drake vs Southern Illinois
Southern Illinois
PK -105 at sportsbook
Play Type: Premium

SIU is 7-1 at home this year and has won six-straight home game. Its truly a hard place for visiting teams to play. 

This year, SIU is 2-0 at home vs. MVC teams, with wins over Illinois State and Valpo.SIU leads the MVC and ranks 21st nationally (of 353) in scoring defense, allowing just 60.8 points per game. In its two MVC wins, SIU held both Illinois State and Valpo to their season scoring low.

While S.Illinois has played lights out at home,  Drake has struggled to finish away from Des Moines, falling 66-61 at Valparaiso Jan. 11 and dropping an eight-point decision at Bradley.

 ILLINOIS is 6-0 ATS  as a home favorite or pick this season.

S.Illinois to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Jan 19, 2020
Titans vs Chiefs
+7½ -118 at betonline
Play Type: Premium

We all know how explosive the Chiefs offence is , but Im sure the Titans plan is to try to keep QB Patrick Mahomes off the field as much as possible by pounding the rock on the ground via    Derrick Henry . It must be noted that the Titans offense has averaged 198 rushing yards per game with him hugging the ball  over his last 8 games (5.9 yards per carry) . Odds are highly likely that more success is on board this Sunday vs a Chiefs D, that has   allowed 4.9 yards per carry and were ranked  29th in defensive rushing DVOA.   

TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons.

Reid is 4-13 ATS  in home games against AFC South division opponents in all games he has coached since 1999.

Teams like the Titans  off breaking the 100-yard plateau on the ground,   29-16 SU and 31-13-1 ATS in the followup and  are a bankroll expanding  20-5 ATS  for their backers against opposition  coming off a  big double-digit win like the Chiefs achieved . Also, underdogs +7  or more have gone 37-26-1 (59%) against the spread in the playoffs, including 9-2 ATS in conference championships or later. Add to that NFL teams who are off  scoring 40 or more points in a playoff game like KC are  1-14-1 ATS L/15 as chalk dating back 24 seasons. 

Play on the Tennessee Titans to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Jan 19, 2020
Packers vs 49ers
+7½ -130 at 5Dimes
Play Type: Premium

After being embarrassed by a 37-8 count by the SF 49ers back in November, Im betting the Packers learned a great deal from thier humiliation and will be prepared to bounce back here and make a game of this behind a defence that prior to win vs Seattle last week had held their L/5 regular season opponents to an average of 14.2 ppg. 

The Packers  head coach Matt LaFleur, has been a bankroll expanding  11-6 ATS (24.9% ROI), as an  underdog this season while the 49ers  have seen underdogs cash at a 11-5-1 ATS clip against them this season.  LaFleur was the offensive coordinator for Shannahan on three separate teams in his career and knows him as well or better than anyone in football. 

Green Bay to cover 


Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 20 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 18 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.