Alex Smart

Afternoon games have a tendency of being a little slower paced and Im betting that will be the case here this afternoon.

WASHINGTON is 7-0 UNDER in road games off an road win where they scored 85 or more points over the last 3 seasons.ATLANTA is 15-3 UNDER in home games in May, June, or July games over the last 2 seasons. 

Play UNDER 

With the Sparks Candice Parker now making here third start since returning of injury should now have gotten rid of her rustiness and Im betting we see her at the top of her game. Road underdogs (LOS ANGELES) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games and are 46-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. 

WNBA team vs the money line (PHOENIX) - after scoring 55 points or less are 26-2 L/5 seasons for a 93% SU conversion rate.

Play on the LA Sparks to cover 

The Dream according to my power rankings are one of the most under rated teams in the WNBA, and according to numbers we have value on the this home dog line.This is Washington's first game in Atlanta since winning Game 5 of the WNBA semifinals 86-81 last September.

ATLANTA is 12-4 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

WNBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days, on Sunday games are 49-21 ATS L/22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Atlanta Dream to cover 

These teams took part in a low scoring 2-0 affair yesterday, but Im betting on a much higher scoring game here this afternoon with Plesac and Norris on the hill for the Tribe and Tigers respectively. Both of these hurlers according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not matchup well , which Im betting results in a higher scoring affair.

Over is 8-2 in Norris' last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Over is 3-1-2 in Tigers last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Over is 3-1-1 in Tigers last 5 road games.Over is 6-2-1 in Tigers last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter. 

Over is 11-3-1 in Norris' last 15 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Over is 20-9-4 in Indians last 33 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Over is 4-0 in Johnsons last 4 Sunday games behind home plate vs. Cleveland.Over is 4-0 in Norris' last 4 starts with Johnson behind home plate. Over is 13-3 in Johnsons last 16 games behind home plate vs. Cleveland.

The Tigers are 8-0 OVER in franchise history as a road dog with Daniel Norris when he went six-plus innings in his last start, going over by an average of 5.45 runs per game.

Play on the OVER 

Brewers fireballer Brandon Woodruff ....(8-2, 4.02 ERA, 102 SO) had a streak  of nine straight wins when Woodruff starts ended Tuesday at San Diego when he allowed four runs in six innings. He had live stuff in that game, however, hitting a 100 mph zone and keeping the Padres hitless until the fourth inning. The Reds batters Im betting will have their hands full again in this spot. Meanwhile,Anthony DeSclafani...(4-3, 4.22 ERA, 68 SO) last faced the Brewers during his first start of the season on April 2 at GABP. He gave up one earned and three hits over five innings with three walks and eight strikeouts and is a viable hurler here that should also control and limit the Brewers offensive production. 

 CINCINNATI is 31-11 UNDER vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 or less errors/game this season with a combined average of 7.5 rpg scored. CINCINNATI is 10-2 UNDER on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season with a combined average of 6.6 rpg scored. CINCINNATI is 15-3 UNDER  in June games this season with an average of 7.4 rpg scored. MILWAUKEE is 11-2 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive overs this season with a combined average of 8.1 rpg scored. 

Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.Under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Milwaukee.

MLB Home teams (MILWAUKEE) - good NL offensive team (4.7 or more runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.100 or better over his last 10 games are 38-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Mike Soroka...RHP.....(8-1, 2.12 ERA, 62 SO)
Soroka th Braves starter may have allowed more than one earned run in both of his last two starts, but he’s only done that a total of three times this season and is a strong All-Star candidate and my choice to back here this afternoon vs the Washington Nationals. Braves are 10-0 in Sorokas last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record and are 6-0 in Sorokas last 6 starts vs. National League East and are 5-0 in his last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.

Meanwhile, the The Nationals starter today Voth is up from Triple-A Fresno to make his 2019 major-league season debut, where he went 3-5 with a 4.40 ERA with 68 strikeouts in 61 1/3 innings in 12 starts. Im betting he will have has hands full here vs the Braves batting order and is fade material. 

ATLANTA is 27-19 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Atlanta Braves to win on the ML

Astros RH Justin Verlander (9-3, 2.59 ERA) vs. Yankees LH J.A. Happ (7-3, 4.59)

Verlander the Astros starter is a stopper and  is 4-0 with a 1.25 ERA in his last six starts against New York. Im betting on him putting the current Astros losing streak to and end here today in NY. 

HOUSTON is 34-11 against the money line in road games against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons ( Happ the Yanks starter is a southpaw)

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (HOUSTON) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  0.800 or less over his last 3 starts are 65-34 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Houston Astros to win on the ML