Alex Smart

The Sparks and Mystics go head to head Friday at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C., with more at stake for Washington than Los Angeles. The Mystics have won seven straight and are one game behind the second-place Atlanta Dream with two games left.The Dream have two games left as well, beginning on Friday against league-leading Seattle at home. On Sunday, Atlanta visits Las Vegas s, who are also fighting for the eighth and final playoff spot.

The top two seeds receive double-byes in the playoffs, so there's plenty of pressure on the Mystics to notch a win here and I expect they come on fire and very motivated to get a victory.

LOS ANGELES is 2-11 ATS ( versus teams who attempt 16 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games this season. WASHINGTON is 9-2 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons

Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team after 15 or more games are 24-3 ATS L/21 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 12.2 ppg. 

Play on Washington to cover

As the play offs get closer and closer, teams are pacing themselves and also playing a dissecting offensive style of basketball  and a more physical brand of defensive ball. Im betting instead of running and gunning that the Storm will prep for the play offs by playing a concerted defensive style game vs a NY team that  enters this tilt on tired legs as they now play their 3rd game of this western road trip. In the first two games they scored 66,72 points and will hard pressed to surpass those offensive numbers here in their current exhausted state.

NEW YORK is 12-4 UNDER  in road games after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. Seattle has seen 8. of 14 home games stay under the total. 

WNBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 150 (SEATTLE) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games are 35-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

As the play offs get closer and closer, teams are pacing themselves and also playing a dissecting offensive style of basketball  and a more physical brand of defensive ball. The Sun have been rolling offensively of late , and the Lynx will be prepared to slow them down, especially after losing their last meeting in this series, which Im betting results in a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse the number. 

MINNESOTA is 7-0 UNDER  in road games after one or more consecutive overs this season with a combined average of 148.8 ppg scored.MINNESOTA is 8-0 UNDER  revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons 154.4 ppg scored.

MINNESOTA is 9-1 UNDER in road games versus teams who attempt 16 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season ,with a combined average of 152.7 ppg scored. MINNESOTA is 9-0 UNDER in road games versus good shooting teams - making 44% or more of their shots after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 146.1 ppg scored.CONNECTICUT is 15-4 UNDER (+10.6 Units) versus good shooting teams - making 44%or more of their shots after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 162.1 ppg scored.

WNBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 150 (CONNECTICUT) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games are 35-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

As the play offs get closer and closer, teams are pacing themselves and also playing a dissecting offensive style of basketball  and a more physical brand of defensive ball.Los Angeles allows a league-low 76.9 points per game and reigning defensive player of the year Alana Beard remains the ringleader on defense. Needless to say the Sparks failures and successes hinge on playing quality D. Today this will be of the utmost importance vs a strong Mystics team hitting on all cylinders at the moment. This Im betting results in a fairly low scoring affair.

LOS ANGELES is 8-0 UNDER  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons wiTh a combined average of 152.6 ppg scored.LOS ANGELES is 17-4 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 154 ppg scored. 

WNBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 150 (WASHINGTON) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games are 35-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

FREDDY PERALTA (R) vs. JACK FLAHERTY (R)

Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty is currently in good form with his team winning  his L2 starts allowing  two runs in his last 13 innings of stable work. He has also dominated Milwaukee in two starts this season, allowing just  two runs in 12 innings while striking out 22 batters .  The Brewers are hitting a combined  .130 with only two extra-base hits vs Flaherty . With the Cards bats on fire propelling them to wins in eight of their last nine games  the home team looks like a viable pick, vs a Brewers rookie  pitcher in Peralta that is on the verge of being demoted to the minors after giving up 7 runs last time out and for the 2nd time in his L/4 trips to the hill. The kids throwing beach balls right now and is fade material in his current form. 

Cardinals are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.Brewers are 1-8 in their last 9 vs. National League .Cards are 13-3 in their last 16 games following a loss.Cardinals are 4-1 in Flahertys last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

Play on the St.Louis Cards on the moneyline 

NOAH SYNDERGAARD (R) vs. AARON NOLA (R)

The Mets embarrassed the Phillies at home in their first game of the double header yesterday putting 26 runs on board, and then the 2nd game saw the Phillies bounce back with a 9-6 win, and now Im betting on the Phillies getting it done here in what could easily be a pitchers duel with Syndergaard and Nola on the hill with Nola according to my power rankings having the edge here at home where he has been unbeatable this season.

NOLA is 11-0  against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season. (Team's Record) NOLA is 11-0 (against the money line in home games this season. (Team's Record) NOLA is 14-1 against the money line in home games when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

 PHILADELPHIA is 23-9  against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season . PHILADELPHIA is also 13-2 against the money line in home games vs. a team with a bad bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or worse this season. PHILADELPHIA is 16-3  against the money line in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.

The Mets have lost 26 straight on the moneyline as a road dog of more than 135 after a game as a road dog in which they left 18+ men on base and it is post All-Star break, which happened in the night cap.

MLB favorites with a money line of -150 or more (PHILADELPHIA) - average offensive team (4.0 to 4.5 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA 3.70) (NL), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL) are 69-17 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Philadelphia Phillies to win on the moneyline 

DANIEL STRAILY (R) vs. MAX SCHERZER (R)

Scherzer the Nationals starter is a top quality hurler, but from a totals perspective here vs the Marlins today it must be noted that in three starts against them this season, he has had tremendous run support, with his team scoring 37 runs . With Straily the Marlins starter struggling of late, with walks being his main issue,  with nine free passes in 10 innings through his first two starts this month more explosive offensive backing looks to be on this agenda fro Scherzer. The Marlins righty has also garnered a bloated 6.58 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill, and could easily get lit up the Nats in his current form, which bodes well for Washington being able to eclipse this total all by themselves.

Over is 8-1 in Strailys last 9 starts during game 1 of a series.Over is 4-0 in Scherzers last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 6-1 in Scherzers last 7 starts vs. National League East.

SCHERZER is 10-1 OVER with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL) this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 11.2 rpg scored. 

STRAILY is 19-7 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)  with the average combined score clicking in at 10.7 rpg. 

WASHINGTON is 16-4 OVER  vs. lower tier power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 11.9 rpg scored.

MIAMI is 9-0 OVER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) this season with a combine average of 13 rgg scored.MIAMI is 16-5 OVER on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 10 rpg going on the board.

The Nationals have gone OVER 14 straight times  in the first game of a series with no rest as a favorite off a road game in which they had at least five more team-left-on-base than their opponent. The average combined score of these tilts rings in at 10.6 rpg , with not game seeing less than 8 runs scored.

MLB team (MIAMI) - team with a terrible OBP (.300 or less ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 or less ) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season-NL are 111-69 OVER L/21 seasons for a long term 62% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play OVER