Alex Smart

Mariners starter GONZALES is 0-2 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 11.58 and a WHIP of 2.251 and according to my pitcher vbs batting order power rankings matches up badly here vs the Twins batting order. Meanwhile Twins Manaea has totaled a season-high 111 pitches in each of his last two starts and despite of being strong in those starts fatigue could easily rare its ugly head in this tilt. 

The Mariners are 10-0-1 OVER L/11 at home off a road game in which they hit more home runs than their opponent.

MINNESOTA is 19-4 OVER  vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season with a combined average of 11.3 rpg scored. MINNESOTA is 22-11 OVER  when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season with a combined average of 10.1 rpg scored. 

These teams have gone over in 8 of the L/10 meetings in this series overall. 

Play OVER

Royals starter Keller owns a ugly 7.20 ERA in 6 home starts this season. Meanwhile, Boyd the Tigers starter owns a equally nasty 5.47 ERA in 5 road starts. 

The Tigers are 9-0 OVER L/9 when Matthew Boyd starts when their opponent is on a 3+ losing streak with a combined average of 13.8 rpg scored. 

 KANSAS CITY is 15-5 OVER  in home games in night games this season with a combined average of 10.6 rpg scored. 

MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (DETROIT) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games, with a tired bullpen - after 3 straight games throwing 4+ innings are 97-44 OVER L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate.

Play OVER 

TB starter GLASNOW is 22-7  against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) White Sox success rate vs righties has not been great as is evident by averaging just 4.4 rpg which is a detriment vs a Rays side that has averaged 6 rpg on the road this season. 

 TAMPA BAY is 7-0  against the money line in road games after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs this season.

The Rays are 12-0 L/12  as a road favorite off a home game in which they used 5+ pitchers.

TAMPA BAY is 13-2  against the money line vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season.

MLB Road teams (TAMPA BAY) - after sweeping a 3 game series at home against a division rival, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.000 or less over his last 5 starts are 34-12 L/ 23 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Rays to win 

Habs star goalie Carey Price enters this   semifinals series  leading all playoff net-minders with a .935 save percentage and will be key here for a Montreal side that plays a strong defensive system behind strong physical play. This Im betting will help them keep the Knights from exploding offensively here in game 1, and aid in this game staying under the total. Note: Vegas goalies Fleury and Lehner won  the Jennings Trophy for fewest goals allowed in the regular season. In the playoffs, Fleury has registered a .923 GAA and will not be an easy roll over for the Habs limited attack strategy. 

Play UNDER

The Jazz looked defensively lazy last time out, and were starting to rely on their offensive explosiveness to just run over opponents. The last game in this series that saw the Jazz get blasted was a wake up call for them, and now Im expecting a more defensive minded effort and also for the Clippers to regress offensively which Im betting results in a lower scoring affair as compared to the offered total. Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 7-2 in Jazz last 9 games following a straight up loss. 

Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Under is 8-2-1 in Clippers last 11 games following a straight up win.Under is 7-2-2 in Clippers last 11 Conference Semifinals games.Under is 7-2-1 in Clippers last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.

.LA CLIPPERS are 31-17 UNDER when they have the around same number of rebounds as their opponents in a game over the last 2 seasons.

UTAH is 32-15 UNDER  as a # 1 seed in the playoffs since 1996 with a combined average of 191.1 ppg scored. 

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (UTAH) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 102-44 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

These teams have not gone over the total in 4 of their L/5 meetings.

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - Second Round - Best Of 7 - Game 4

Three-time NBA champion Danny Green sustained a strained right calf during Philadelphia's 127-111 win over Atlanta on Friday and will now Im betting have problems adjusting without him and being as fluid. Im also betting on the streaky Trae Young to find his form after a couple crap shooting games in a row. Advantage Atlanta. 

PHILADELPHIA is 9-27 ATS  in road games after a combined score of 225 points or more over the last 2 seasons.  

ATLANTA is 19-7 ATS  in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. ATLANTA is 20-9 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.ATLANTA is 14-3 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons . ATLANTA is 20-8 ATS  in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

PHILADELPHIA is 16-31 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons. 

76ers are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta. 

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 14-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Atlanta to cover