Alex Smart

Homer Bailey (1-1, 5.29 ERA) makes his fourth start for the Royals, who signed him as a free agent after he was 1-14 with a 6.09 ERA in 20 starts for the Reds last season. Im betting a hot hitting NYY team off a sweep vs the BoSox to come out here and really rack up some runs vs Bailey which will help this score get eclipsed. Note: Bailey is 1-1 with a 5.84 ERA in two career starts against the Yankees and both of those outings occurred in New York with a combined average of 11 and 14 runs scored in the two games.  He is backed by a bullpen that has garnered a 6.37 ERA this season. 

Play OVER

These teams play contrasting styles both home nd away. The Nuggets went under in 25 of their 41 road games and were the most profitable UNDER road team in the league this season  , while the Spurs were 23-18 to the under at home. With that said, after a fairly high scoring game in Denver last time out, Im betting on this one being more conservative and physcial in nature as the young inexperienced Nuggets try to find their footing in a hostile environment. 

Under is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 Thursday games.Under is 7-1 in Nuggets last 8 vs. NBA Southwest.Under is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 13-3 in Nuggets last 16 games following a straight up win.

Under is 14-4 in Nuggets last 18 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 20-6 in Nuggets last 26 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 16-5 in Nuggets last 21 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 16-5 in Nuggets last 21 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 20-7 in Nuggets last 27 overall.Under is 20-7 in Nuggets last 27 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 10-4 in Nuggets last 14 road games.Under is 10-4 in Nuggets last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 14-6 in Nuggets last 20 vs. Western Conference.Under is 9-4 in Nuggets last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Under is 10-1 in Spurs last 11 vs. Western Conference.Under is 6-1 in Spurs last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.Under is 8-2 in Spurs last 10 games following a ATS loss.Under is 4-1 in Spurs last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 10-3 in Spurs last 13 home games.Under is 16-5 in Spurs last 21 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-2 in Spurs last 8 overall.Under is 5-2 in Spurs last 7 games following a straight up loss.Under is 5-2 in Spurs last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 7-3-1 in Spurs last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games.Under is 9-4 in Spurs last 13 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 36-16 in Spurs last 52 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 210.5 (DENVER) - in a playoff game, in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 64-32 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

This series between the Jets and Blues has featured four straight wins by the road team and here in Winnipeg tonight Im betting the trend stays intact. Look for Blues, Rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington  who has lost two in a row for the first time in his career despite answering a six-goal performance with a sterling 37-save effort on Tuesday to be instrumental for the Blues here tonight. The 25-year-old stopped 50 of 54 shots in the Blues' two victories in Winnipeg.

ST LOUIS is 17-4 ATS against good passing teams - averaging 5 or more assists per game in the 2nd half of the year this season.ST LOUIS is 5-0 ATS in road games in the first round of the playoffs over the last 3 seasons. WINNIPEG is 10-21 ATS off 2 or more consecutive road wins since 1996. 

Blues are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog of +201 or greater.

Blues are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog.

Play on St.Louis Blues to win on the ML

After going down 2-0 in this series the Canes came flying back in game 3 for a 5-0 win and now with two days rest are very ready to tie this series with the defending Stanley Cup Champion Washington Capitals. Im betting special teams will be key to what Im betting Washington is 0-for-10 in the power play since Ovechkin scored with 1:55 remaining in the first period of Game 1.. Carolina has scored on three of its last 10 chances with the man advantage in the last two contests.

Capitals are 6-14 in their last 20 playoff games as an underdog of +110 to +150.

Home team is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Favorite is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Play on Carolina to win on the ML

ZACH EFLIN (R) vs. KYLE FREELAND (L)

Colorado will send left-hander Kyle Freeland to the mound to face righty Zach Eflin in the opener of the series.

Eflin (2-1, 3.94) was  was hit hard in a 10-3 loss at Miami on Saturday. He gave up six runs on 10 hits in just four innings. He is 1-2 in three career starts against Colorado and sports a 9.20 ERA and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not matchup well vs the Rockies and is fade material here today on the road. I know Colorados Freelend has had some issues thanks to blistering, but he is said to be good to go and when hes on he is hard beat.FREELAND is 16-8 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Phillies are 1-7 in Eflins last 8 road starts.Phillies are 1-8 in Eflins last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.Phillies are 0-4 in Eflins last 4 starts vs. National League West.

Rockies are 7-0 in Freelands last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.Rockies are 7-0 in Freelands last 7 Thursday starts.Rockies are 8-1 in Freelands last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Rockies are 7-1 in Freelands last 8 starts during game 1 of a series.Rockies are 6-1 in Freelands last 7 starts vs. National League East.Rockies are 13-3 in Freelands last 16 home starts.Rockies are 22-6 in Freelands last 28 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Rockies are 13-4 in Freelands last 17 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Rockies are 12-4 in Freelands last 16 starts with 4 days of rest.Rockies are 23-8 in Freelands last 31 starts on grass.Rockies are 23-9 in Freelands last 32 starts.

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (PHILADELPHIA) - good offensive team (4.7 or more runs/game) against a below average starter (ERA 5.20 to 5.70)-NL, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game are 27-44 L/22 seasons for a long term go against 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Colorado Rockies to win on the ML

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

Denver may have found a way to win and cover in game 2 of this series, but San Antonio still looked like the better overall team, and deserve my backing here tonight. 

Nuggets are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 1 days rest.Nuggets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 Conference Quarterfinals games.

DENVER is 6-15 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season.

Spurs are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Spurs are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

SAN ANTONIO is 20-2 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season. SAN ANTONIO is 6-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons in San Antonio.

SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. SAN ANTONIO is 16-5 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons. SAN ANTONIO is 7-0 ATS  in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. SAN ANTONIO is 8-1 ATS  in home games against Northwest division opponents this season.

Play on the San Antonio Spurs . to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

This series is now tied 1-1 and swings back to Brooklyn in a more favorable environment for the Nets. The Nets stole game 1 before the Sixers stormed back in game 2 and won in convincing fashion.Now on a couple of days rest the Nets will now be ready to rebound. Note: The Nets are 16-5 ATS in their past 21 games on two days of rest. During the regular season, Philadelphia was 20-21 as visitors, while Brooklyn was 23-18 as hosts and have the edge here getting points. 

In the last 13 + seasons, teams like theNets that allowed 125 or more points in a loss have gone 28-18 (61%) ATS in the playoffs

BROOKLYN is 21-9 ATS  revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season.PHILADELPHIA is 19-32 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive wins this season.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - vs. division opponents, off a road loss by 10 points or more 41-17 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover

The Leafs and the Bruins are in a tit for tat battle for their play off lives and tonight I like the value attached to the Leafs here .   In game 5 the Bruins got out to a 5-2 lead before the Leafs looked to rip into another gear yet seen from them in while, but still lost 6-4. Tonight Im betting that high octane attack that the Leafs can produce will be on full display and will get them to them a 3-2 lead in this series. The Bruins D, will stand tall but it wont be enough to get them out of this game without a loss.TORONTO is 20-6 ATS  off a loss by 2 goals or more to a division rival over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on the Maple Leafs to win on the ML

TOUKI TOUSSAINT (R) vs. COREY KLUBER (R)

Atlanta is struggling having lost three in a row, while the Tribe despite of struggling at the plate at times this season continue to find ways to win and are on a 3 game win streak and have won 9 of their L/13, and get the nod again here tonight. The Indians are 8-0 SU with Corey Kluber at home when their opponent is on a 3+ loss streak, winning by an average of 6.9 runs per game. 

MLB Road teams (ATLANTA) - good NL offensive team (4.7 or more runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA3.33 or less), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities are 6-37 L/5 seasons for a go against  86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Indians to win on the ML

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - BOS Leads 2-0

The two first games of this series have not gone of the Pacers way thanks to in ability to keep their offensive flow going and converting on easy shots, while also allowing them selves to get up in defensive affairs , which the Celtics are looking better at implementing . So tonight Im expecting more flow to the Pacers game as they look to resurrect their chances in this series/ With that said, Im betting  on a tilt that will feature more offence and a faster pace.

NBA team (BOSTON) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 60-29 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

Two Eastern Conference series ended this week in four-game sweeps, but the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs are battling it out in a series that has come down to a best two out of three. With these teams beating each other up and playing a more physical type of game plan, Im betting on more conservative efforts that base their respective attacks on transition, which will equate to less quality scoring opportunities and less goals going on the board.

Last time out these teams took part in the highest scoring affair of this series with the Bruins winning by a 6-4 count, but now Im betting both sides knowing this type of hockey is not sustainable or equitable to winning a tight series will revert back to being much more defensive minded in this game and going forward in this series.

TORONTO is 16-7 UNDER  revenging a loss where opponent scored 4 or more goals this season.BOSTON is 6-0 UNDER in home games after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game this season.

Play UNDER

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - POR Leads 2-0

The Oklahoma City Thunder have exhibited less than stellar shooting prowess all season long,ranking 22nd in in 3 point shooting and things are not getting much better, and have now shot a combined 10-61 (16.4%) from 3-point range in the first two games of this series. Tonight Im betting the Thunders long range futility will contribute to a lower scoring game as will Portlands horrendous 2nd to last play off FG% conversion rate vs a strong rim protection Thunder group.

PORTLAND is 21-9 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.2 ppg scored.

PORTLAND is 10-1 UNDER  off a home win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 206.1 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. DREW SMYLY (L)

With a 2-1 loss at Oakland on Wednesday, Houston saw its 10-game winning streak come to an end, but that game was a blip on an upward momentum chart and Im betting they rebound in a big way here today with Verlander on the hill for them.

DREW SMYLY the Texas starter is 0-2 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.741 he has seen his team lose all 4 of his career starts vs the ASTROS.

MLB favorites with a money line of -200 or more (HOUSTON) - excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game on the season, after scoring 1 run or less are 42-1 L/5 seasons winning by an average of 3.7 rpg.

Play on Houston on the -1.5 RL

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

The Raptors after losing game 1 came storming back with a convincing two way performance, crushing Orlando by a 111-82 count. After watching the Raptors dismantle, the Magic, Im betting the zig zag theory does not apply to this matchup. I know Orlando has had quite a 2nd half run ,but right now I feel the Dinos talent level and hunger for victory will trump what this young group has to offer.Note: NBA play off road favs are  30-11-1 against the spread over the last couple of seasons for a 73% conversion rate. I like this game alot and would bet it as high as -6. 

TORONTO is 33-19 ATS  in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (102 or more PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 90 points or less are 71-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Raptors to cover