Alex Smart

The Giants will start a rookie hurler (L.Webb) in his first ever outing in the big leagues. Im betting despite of his top tier designation as a prospect ,that being here in a unfriendly environment on the road will not serve him well in his debut.

Giants are 16-36 in their last 52 during game 3 of a series.Giants are 3-7 in their last 10 games following a win.

The Giants are 0-10 on the ML when their opponent is seeking immediate revenge for a loss as a home chalk in which they held the lead.( The DBacks lost 10-9 last night)

ARIZONA is 26-11 against the money line revenging 2 straight home losses vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Arizona DBacks to win on the ML

Miles Mikolas (7-12, 4.13 ERA, 101 SO)After a consistent start to the second half, Mikolas regressed on Sunday against the Pirates, allowing five runs on seven hits in five innings. He struggled with command which is not a good omen as he exasperates fthe same problems he exhibited earlier this season. I know the Cards are playing well, and the pitching staff has looked strong, but ST LOUIS is just 1-13 against the money line after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better this season. 

The Cards crushed the Reds yesterday, 13-4, but in the past that kind of output has not been kind in their followup game, as they have gone  10-20 against the money line after scoring 9 runs or more over the last 2 seasons while scoring an average of just 3.5 rpg over that 30 game sample size. Meanwhile, CINCINNATI is 11-3 against the money line after allowing 8 runs or more this season with margin out put of 5.0 to 2.9. 

ST LOUIS is 7-18 against the money line in road games with a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season (NL) this season. 

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ST LOUIS) - off an upset win vs. a division rival as an underdog of +130 or higher, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 8-34 L/22 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cincinnati Reds to win on the ML

Jays starter Trent Thornton (4-8, 5.34 ERA, 110 SO) is coming off one of his best starts of the season, where he held the Yankees to just one run on three hits over six innings while striking out six. Thornton's biggest problem in 2019, though, has been consistency between starts. Note: The Blue Jays are 0-7 on the ML with Trent Thornton when he went six-plus innings in his last start. Meanwhile,Reggie McClain (0-0, 4.50 ERA, 5 SO)The 26-year-old rookie has risen from Class A ball to the big leagues this season and now gets his first MLB start, as the Mariners will go with a bullpen game. McClain is a converted starter who has pitched 3 games in relief since being called up and according to scouts deserves a mlb start. 

Blue Jays are 3-9 in Thorntons last 12 starts on astroturf.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SEATTLE) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games are 91-47 L/22 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Seattle Mariners to win on the ML

Nationals starter Anibal Sanchez (7-6, 3.75 ERA, 99 SO) is on a run mirroring the roll he went on in 2018 to help lead the Braves to a division title. Sanchez has won his last seven decisions and has a 2.93 ERA over his last 14 starts. Im betting he buoys a Nats team that has won 5 straight and 7 of their L/8 overall to another win vs Brewers here in this spot. I know his pitching opponent from the Brewers Lyles has pitched well since his trade from the Pirates , but prior to that trade , he registered a nasty 9.57 ERA in his final nine starts and could easily get nailed her vs a side that matches up well against him according to my power rankings.

Nationals are 10-4 in Sanchezs last 14 starts.

rewers are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League Central.

Play on the Washington Nationals to win on the ML

Twins starter Berrios (10-6, 3.29 ERA) is 2-1 with a 5.63 ERA in three career starts against Texas. He lost his only start at Globe Life Park last season when he allowed five runs on three hits, all of them home runs, in four innings of a 7-4 loss and is fade material here in this spot according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. Note: BERRIOS is 1-9 against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) BERRIOS is 3-10  against the money line against AL West opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

TEXAS is 11-6 against the money line as a home underdog of +125 or more this season. 

MLB underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (TEXAS) - team with a poor OBP (.320 or less ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or less) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 on the season-AL are 34-23 L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Texas Rangers to win on the ML

  Montreal after 3 straight victories  is off two hard fought losses one in OT, and one that was only played into the third quarter before being cancelled because of a vicious storm. Two unfortunate events that will have them hungry to compete here tonight, in Calgary. With Calgary off a heart breaking loss to Winnipeg last week 26-24, in a gruelling affair I wont be surprised if the Stamps suffer a let down scenario, and come out here on the slow side, and fail to cover this spread.

MONTREAL is 6-0 ATS  in road games versus excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 2 seasons. MONTREAL is 9-2 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.

CFL Road teams vs. the money line (MONTREAL) - after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, after the first month of the season are 21-9 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate with a 5 point per game margin differential. 

Play on the Montreal Als to cover 

 Rookie  star Arike Ogunbowale  leads a up trending Dallas Wings side that is on a 3 game win streak into Connecticut to play the Suns . Ogunbowale leads all rookies in scoring at 16.3 points per game, which is also good for seventh in the league and is getting more confident an over powering with each game out and is a game changer.

Meanwhile, Connecticut rallied from seven down in the final 1:47 to extend its home winning streak to six games Friday night , and exerted alot of energy in that contest , after a gruelling 4 game road trip prior to that. Now against a team they maybe over looking a natural letdown spot looks to be on the agenda making them fade material vs this type of number. I know the Sun  have won 19 of their last 20 home games dating back to last year, and I doubt they lose today ,but Im betting covering will be more difficult than some might think. 

CONNECTICUT is 1-9 ATS  after a combined score of 155 points or more this season. CONNECTICUT is 37-57 ATS  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points since 1997.

CONNECTICUT is 2-9 ATS  vs. excellent free throw shooting teams - making 80% or better  of their shots after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.CONNECTICUT is 2-12 ATS after 2 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on the Dallas Wings to cover 

Lynn the Rangers starting hurler today vs the Twins has allowed only one earned run and four hits in each of his last four starts while recording  32 strikeouts in 25 innings of top tier work. Lynn, has been his best at home this season recording a  9-1 record along  with a 3.94 ERA in 12 starts and gets my support here today to salvage a win in this series vs the hot hitting Twins.

TEXAS is 12-5 against the money line in home games in day games this season.

The Rangers are 8-0 on the ML in the last game of a series as a home favorite after they hit at least one home run.  

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MINNESOTA) - hot hitting team - batting .333 or better over their last 3 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts are 8-41 L/5 seasosn for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Texas Rangers to win on the ML

There is a divergence in the way both these starting pitchers have done of late as  Bumgarner is 5-0 during a 10 game run where the Giants have won 9 of those games, and on the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, that shows Kelly's team has lost 8 of his 10 starts. However, despite of the recency bias, the line on this tilt has been moving overnight, towards the Dbacks. My power ranking pitcher vs batting order is flashing value here with the home team despite of the recent divergent path both hurlers have forged for themselves. Kelly is 1-1 with a 2.76 ERA in three starts against San Francisco and gets my support to his team in this tilt and to help us get the ML win. 

BUMGARNER is 1-9 against the money line as a opening line road favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Giants are 10-21 in Bumgarners last 31 road starts.

SAN FRANCISCO is 14-24 against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 3 seasons.

MLB opening line Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ARIZONA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season (NL), with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games are 33-13 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arizona on the ML

 Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin will be recalled to make the start against the Braves and Max Fried. Although Gonsolin will start, fellow rookie Dustin May is scheduled to make his relief debut, but could also start. Both are trying out for a postseason role and will be primed to compete here for a future roster job. Meanwhile, Atlanta's starter Fried has struggled against the Dodgers. In an earlier start in Los Angeles this season, he was knocked out after one inning, giving up four runs on four hits and one walk. In two career starts against the Dodgers, Fried is 0-2 with a 7.50 ERA.

Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.Dodgers are 39-14 in their last 53 Sunday games.Dodgers are 39-15 in their last 54 vs. a team with a winning record.Dodgers are 5-2 in their last 7 road games.Dodgers are 51-21 in their last 72 during game 3 of a series.Dodgers are 40-17 in their last 57 vs. National League East.Dodgers are 42-18 in their last 60 games following a loss.Dodgers are 15-7 in their last 22 games vs. a left-handed starter.Dodgers are 73-34 in their last 107 games on grass.Dodgers are 74-35 in their last 109 overall.Dodgers are 29-14 in their last 43 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

Braves are 6-13 in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Dodgers are 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Atlanta.Dodgers are 35-16 in the last 51 meetings.

Play on the LA Dodgers to win on the ML

This will be the 3rd straight season, these teams Minnesota and Seattle have faced each other.The Vikings barely edged out a 21-20 victory in their last pre-season encounter; and Im betting on another closely contested affair here in this NFLX tilt. Looking at the Seahawks, I like the way they have stacked this team with top tier athletes, with tremendous size especially on offence focusing a strong looking WR core ,  where I believe they will be improved. This will buoy QB Wilsons ability in the run heavy option and continue to make him a dangerous weapon. Im expecting big things from the Seahawks in the regular season, and a few flashes of brilliance here today in preseason action, making them my choice to cover this number and stay competitive on the road . 

SEATTLE is 33-17 ATS in road lined games since 1993 and  is 32-16 ATS  as an underdog since 1993. 

NFLX Favorites (MINNESOTA) - after scoring 30 points or more last game against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 4-21 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Seattle Seahawks to cover

Cleveland Indians starter Mike Clevinger,  has been in top form since July 1 as is evident by a  perfect 6-0 record along  with a stingy  2.39 ERA  in 8 quality starts. He goes against a banged up Yankees team, that despite of some clutch hitting looks to be in a regression phase.

Indians are 4-0 in Clevingers last 4 road starts. 

Meanwhile, the Yankees will go with veteran  CC Sabathia who was  0-2 in July along with a bloated 7.17 ERA in four starts and is now coming of the IL and could easily show some rust. With the added pop in the Tribes batting lineup ie Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes and a packed righty batting order, Sabathia looks like cannon fodder. 

Indians are 37-17 in their last 54 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

Play on the Cleveland Indians to win on the ML