Alex Smart

 Denver is returning to the New York area after absorbing a 108-95 loss in Boston Friday night and now knowing they have to play better offensively as Im now betting they will be more aggressive with their attack in transition against a Brooklyn side that plays a efficient style of offensive hoops behind a top 10 pace and a lower tier D ranked 20th in ppg allowed at 113.4 ppg. With that said Im betting a combined score  that eclipses this Totals offering. 

Play OVER 

The Philadelphia 76ers will be looking to improve 12-0 at home when they host the defending-champion Toronto Raptors (15-6 SU) on Sunday. In contrarian fashion Im betting that the Sixers will not easily get cover here today vs a motivated talented and experienced team that looks to end a 2 game losing streak. QUOTE:"You don't overreact when you're 15-4, and you don't overreact when you're now 15-6," HC Nurse said. "Just get back going to work and taking them as they come, because you're probably gonna win quite a few games if you put the effort forward, and you're gonna slip up every now and then because that's basketball." END QUOTE.

PHILADELPHIA is 14-26 ATS after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

Toronto has won 5 straight meetings in this series dating back to last season.

NBA Road underdogs (TORONTO) - after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 94-50 ATS L/23 seasons for a 65% conversion rate.

Play on Toronto to cover 

Florida State (7-2, 0-1 ACC) lost 80-64 at Indiana on Tuesday, one night after Clemson (5-3, 0-1) was soundly defeated 78-60 at Minnesota and now because of recency bias we have a solid underdog line to bet into with an under rated Tigers side. 

Key to cover: The Tigers are outscoring opponents off turnovers this season by a decisive margin of 163-104. Clemson has forced 129 turnovers and committed 95.

 FLORIDA ST is 0-6 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.Hamilton is 39-78 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games as the coach of FLORIDA ST.

Play on Clemson to cover 

The Lakers are red hot entering this home game against Minnesota as they  are off a three-game road  swing that eneded with a 136-113 win over the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday for their 11th consecutive road win.The Lakers have won three in a row and 13 of their last 14 contests. Meanwhile, Minnesota is off 3 straight losses, and on tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 5 nights. The way the Lakers are running over opponents its actually not a hard decision to lay this many points with them here at home. 

NBA Road teams (MINNESOTA) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games against opponent red hot team - having won 18 or more of their last 20 games are 1-27 SU L/28 times with -13 ppg average diff. 

NBA Home favorites  (LA LAKERS) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 33-2 L/35 opportunities with the average ppg diff clicking in at 13.3 ppg.

NBA Home favorites (LA LAKERS) - after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 45-17 ATS L/23 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 

Miami is off to the best home start (9-0) in franchise history and is 10 games over .500 overall and take on a Chicago team that has won back to back games.  I know the Bulls are playing well right now but they just do not matchup well vs the Heat. The Heat rank 9th in the league in SRS at 4.84 while the Bulls rank 24th at  -4.85 . Using my power rankings index and home court advantage of the Heat are closer to -12 favs here when factoring in both sides overall performance charts, giving us value with Miami according to my projections. 

Note:SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

CHICAGO is 6-16 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -13.2 ppg. 

Play on Miami to cover 

Atlanta's most-recent game   against Brooklyn, saw them losing 130-118 on Wednesday night at home. The Hawks run a very fast paced offensive system, but its their defence that suffers most, as they rank 28th in the league in ppg allowed at 117.8 ppg. Much of their defensive ugliness can be attributed to carelessness especially on the road where they average18.4 turnovers per away game. Im betting nothing changes tonight here in Charlotte , in what will be an affair that goes over the set total. Note:My projections estimate both sides will score +105 points. ATLANTA is 9-0 OVER   where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 245 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

ATLANTA is 10-0 OVER  after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season with a combined average of 241 ppg going on the board.

Borrego is 32-13 OVER  when the total is 220 to 229.5 as the coach of CHARLOTTE with a combined average of 227.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (ATLANTA) - poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) against a horrible defensive team (47.5% or more) 75-41 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

 Indianapolis is off a 31-17 loss to the Titans last week which most believe will have them in a letdown spot this Sunday, but Im betting on the opposite reaction via a tough as nails group that will want redemption immediately.  Note:  The Colts are 14-0 ATS  L/14 when they are off a double-digit ATS loss and they are facing a non-divisional opponent that has forced an average of fewer than five turnovers per game like the Buccaneers. The recency bias of Buccaneers win vs Jacksonville last week, and the Colts loss has a bad line attached to this tilt. In my betting opinion this inconsistent Buccaneers team is being over rated in a big way. 
  
 The  Bucaneers  are 0-16 ATS when they are not a FG-plus dog and they are off a win as a favorite in which they never trailed and converted four-plus third downs.  

INDIANAPOLIS is 10-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons

TAMPA BAY is 4-14 L/18  ATS against AFC South division opponents .

The Colts are 6-1 SU L/7 overall in this series and 3-1 SUL/4 visits to TB. 

NFL Home favorites (TAMPA BAY) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% in the second half of the season are 8-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against  78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indianapolis Colts to cover 

 GOALTENDERS: BUFFALO - CARTER HUTTON, EDMONTON - MIKKO KOSKINEN

The Oilers continue to play a more defensive brand of hockey despite of having some top tier offensive talent in their lineup and have produced an average of just 2 gpg in their L/5 overall . Tonight on tired legs as they prepare to play their 5th in game in 9 days Im betting their output will once against be curtailed, by a Buffalo side  also on tired legs as they are off a high scoring 6-5 OT loss-yesterday and in need of shoring up their defense. BUFFALO is 9-3 UNDER after allowing 4 goals or more this season with a combined average of 5.4 gpg scored.

EDMONTON is 9-1 UNDER  against struggling  power play killing teams-opp score on 19% or more of chances this season with a combined average of 4.1 gpg scored. 

EDMONTON is 20-9 UNDER  in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 5.3 gpg scored. 

 Play UNDER 

The Spartans will be thin in the backcourt for their Big Ten opener vs Rutgers tonight with freshman Rocket Watts out with a stress reaction in his foot. This has been one of MSU’s best lineups, but depth becomes an issue especially in the backcourt. It must also be noted that the Spartans have not defended well as the rotation continues to be a work in progress while the shooting outside of Winston has been inconsistent. Meanwhile,Rutgers is in the top four in field-goal percentage defense, third in blocked shots and second in steals, and are second in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage and must be respected getting this many points. What Im betting here, is that the Scarlet Knights are to well coached and have too much Big Ten-caliber talent to be run over here, thus getting points makes for viable investment option.

Play on Rutgers to cover

These teams offences have really slowed down a lot of late, with Atlanta averaging  20.4 ppg in their L/ 6 trips to the gridiron, and their opponents the Panthers averaging just 19  ppg in their L/6 overall tilts.  In their most  recent  five meetings the average combined score clicks in a 38 ppg. Im betting on a real offensive sleeper again this Sunday when these teams meet. 

CAROLINA is 6-0 UNDER  vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing 7.5 or more passing yards/att. after 8+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 35.6 ppg scored. 

ATLANTA is 6-0 UNDER  after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse over the last 3 seasons.ATLANTA is 8-1 UNDER  in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in December games are 44-15 UNDER L.5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The Seahawks  are off. s hard fought win vs Minnesota this past Monday night and are currently the No. 2 overall seed in the NFC .and garnering alot public support thanks to recency bias   Meanwhile, the LA Rams look to now awoken from their mid season slumber behind the reenergized QB Jared Goff who  threw for 424 yards in last week’s 34-7 beat down at Arizona in which the Rams tough D held the Cardinals to a season-low 198 yards of offense.  I know the Rams have not looked particularly consistent this season but the numbers tell a different story as they  have won the stats battles in 10 of their L/12 games this season.  When these lines opened over the summer   the books posted the Rams as 7.5 point chalk, and now with the line divergence this big their is obvious value with the Rams here playing at home vs a Seattle side that will have issues bringing the same energy to this game as they did vs the Vikings last week. 

 LA RAMS are 6-0 ATS  after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Road favorites (SEATTLE) - good rushing team - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game are 82-135 ATS L/36 seasons for a long term go against 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Rams to cover

Its Jimmy G vs Drew Bree's this Sunday in the Bayou. I know the public loves the 49ers a team that moved into the upper echelons of the NFL, but  the Saints have thrived in this spot in the past and are 13-1 SU and 14-0 ATS L/14 record at home versus .800- plus opposition. My own projections make the Saints the superior side as hosts and they get my support in this spot. 

NFL Home teams  (NEW ORLEANS) - off 3 straight wins against division rivals, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 27-1 SU L/ 36 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.3 ppg. 

NFL Favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 29-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

Play on New Orleans Saints to cover 

Tennessee took part in a hard fought affair last week against Indianapolis which resulted in a  away win thanks to a great forth quarter . However, the Titans are being a little over rated because of recency bias,  as is evident by having lost 8 of 12 stats battles  and have  given  up season- high yards in two of its last three games . With that said, Tennessee looks vulnerable here in what looks a classic letdown situation on the road.  Which coincindently their second straight road game and never an easy situation for any NFL team . I know the Raiders after 3 straight wins have looked bad in two straight losses , but they are better team than those down efforts and Im betting on a bounce back work order today vs a over rated side.

Tennessee  as a non-division favorite of more than 2 points, are  0-10-1 ATS l/11 against opponents  coming off a loss.

NFL  team (OAKLAND) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 34-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rates.

Play on Oakland to cover 

The Chargers and the Jaguars are both having seasons to forget, and both enter this game desperate for a win. The Chargers are off a loss to the Denver Broncos and  the Jags are off a ugly DD loss to the TB Bucs by a 28-11 count. Free agent  QB Nick Foles just can't get it done, for the Jags, and young QB Minshew is expected to start. It must be noted that the Jags incumbent QB is  4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in his NFL career against opponents  coming off a loss like the Bolts. My projections estimate that Jacksonville plays better with their young gun under center and have more flow to their games, and with hom expected to start there is value taking points. 

The Chargers are 2-7-1 ATS L/10 as a favorite.

NFL Favorites (LA CHARGERS) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 9-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE) - average rushing team (95-125 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G), after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game are 47-20 L/36 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover