Alex Smart Alex Smart
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Matchup Selection W/L
WNBA  |  Jun 21, 2024
Fever vs Dream
+3 -110 at YouWager
Play Type: Premium

I know Rhyne Howard will not play tonight for the Dream, but the market is definitely over reacting to this news and now I expect sharp money to now  come in on the Dream.ATLANTA is 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons. I know Catlin Clark and company have won 3 straight all at home but , are just 2-6 on the road and according to my power rankings are being over rated.

Play on the Dream to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 21, 2024
Brewers vs Padres
+137 at circa
Play Type: Premium

 The Brewers are positive bets of between -120 to +135  on the moneyline with starter Colin Rea  on the hill as is evident by cashing 12 of 14 last season and 4 of 5 this season  for a total of 15+ units of profit. REA is 11-3  against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)REA is 8-1  against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. (Team's Record) SAN DIEGO is 17-33 (-18.3 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 2 seasons.

Meanwhile, Dylan Cease the Padres starer has a 6.32 ERA in his L/3 starts and fade material in his current form. 

SAN DIEGO is 9-16 against the money line in home games in night games this season

MLB underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MILWAUKEE) - with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games against opponent with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.50 the last 5 games are 50-32 L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Milwaukee to win

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 21, 2024
Braves vs Yankees
UNDER 8½ -125 Lost
Play Type: Premium

Chris Sale is the expected starter for the  Atlanta Braves. The veteran hurler has looked good as is evident by his s 9-2 record along  with a 2.98 ERA and 99 strikeouts this season. The southpaw has  allowed 19 hits and 12 runs in his last 18 innings and a 3.16 ERA and .222 allowed batting average in 31.1 road innings. Sale also owns a  solid  3.12 ERA and 157 strikeouts in his career vs  the New York Yankees. Meanwhile, Carlos Rodon will go the hill for the  New York Yankees,  is 9-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 81 strikeouts this season.  Rodon has a 2.30 ERA and .182 allowed BA in 31.1 home innings. Rodon is also 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 18 strikeouts in his career against the Atlanta Braves. Both hurlers are backed by sold bullpens. 

Wind is blowing in here today, and with 2 high strike out pitchers on the hill, a lower scoring edge must be expected . 

ATLANTA is 10-0 UNDER  vs. AL teams allowing 3.9 or less runs/game on the season this season with a combined average of 6.2 rpg .ATLANTA is 18-4 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season. ATLANTA is 21-6 UNDER  in an inter-league game this season with a combined average of 7.6 rpg. 

NY YANKEES are 15-3 UNDER after allowing 9 runs or more over the last 2 seasons which happened yesterday in a 17-5 loss vs Baltimore. 

Play under

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 21, 2024
Orioles vs Astros
-151 at BetVegas
Play Type: Premium

 Baltimore'a expected starter Grayson Rodriguez, is 8-2 along with a solid 3.20 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 70.1 innings this season.  He gives the No.1 AL team a edge here vs a Astros side that just cant shake out of playing inconsistent baseball. HOUSTON is 5-12  against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  62% or better ) this season.  HOUSTON is 8-15 against the money line in home games against AL East opponents over the last 2 seasons. 

BALTIMORE is 26-7  against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last 2 seasons.

The Orioles have won each of their last 10 games as road favorites against American League opponents.The Astros have lost seven of their last eight home games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (BALTIMORE) - AL team with a low on-base percentage (.320 or worse) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or less), starting a pitcher who gave up 2  or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are 95-35 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Baltimore Orioles to win 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 22, 2024
Orioles vs Astros
-140 at circa
Play Type: Premium

 Os starter Burnes has a 1.35 ERA in three June starts, allowing just 3 earned runs in 20 innings of work. Baltimore is 6-0 in Burnes’ last six starts and gives his team an edge in a bounce back situation after yesterdays 14-11 loss to this same Astros side. . Chalk off a loss playing an opponent off a victory are 241-152  for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

 MLB team (BALTIMORE) - with a team slugging percentage of .450 or better on the season (AL), after scoring 8 runs or more 2 straight games are 32-11 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Baltimore to win

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 22, 2024
Rays vs Pirates
-102 at YouWager
Play Type: Premium

The Pirates continue to struggle in inter-league play and have now lost 15 of 23 after yesterdays loss to the Tampa Bay Rays. Im now betting on a rinse and repeat situation as the Rays have the edge again with Efilin on the hill. The righty is ( 3-4, along with a  4.12 ERA) and  is 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA in three career starts against Pittsburgh. The Rays will respond with  Rookie Jared Jones (4-6, 3.76 ERA) who according to my power rankings does not matchup well vs the Rays offense. In his L/2 starts the Pirates lost by 16-4 and 11-5 counts. 

PITTSBURGH is 1-7  against the money line after two straight games where they had 5 or less hits this season.

TAMPA BAY is 13-5  against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season

MLB - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TAMPA BAY) - with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last 3 games, with a tired bullpen - after 2 straight games throwing 5+ innings.are 27-6 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Tampa Bay is 7-0 L/7 meetings in this series.

Play on Tampa Bay to win

Matchup Selection W/L
WNBA  |  Jun 22, 2024
Sparks vs Liberty
OVER 167½ -110 Won
Play Type: Premium

These teams  the Sparks and the Liberty just played and the total combined score of the game eclipsed the total (173), and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here today in the rematch.note: NYL have scored 90 points or more in 4 straight but have allowed 80 or more points in what have been wide open run and gun affairs.  

Over is 4-0 in Liberty last 4 home games. Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in New York.

NEW YORK is 15-6 OVER  in home games after scoring 80 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 170.3 ppg scored.NEW YORK is 23-12 OVER  after allowing 75 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 172 ppg scored. 

Play over


Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 22 years.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigious event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.    

I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit).