Art Aronson

This is a 10* on the UNDER

The Sabres are off their regulation loss of the season, which came last night in Anaheim by a score of 5-2. At 5-1-1 though, they still lead the Atlantic Division w/ 11 points. Who knows how long that will last night, but tonight they seem to have a favorable matchup against the last place Kings. Los Angeles finished with the least amount of points in the Western Conference last season. They have started 2-4 this year and have had major issues keeping the opposition from scoring. Their 28 goals allowed are second most in the league right now. It's going to take a lot more than covering up a Taylor Swift banner to get this team pointed in the right direction. The good news though is they only allowed two goals in their last game, which took place Tuesday, and that was a season-low. The bad news is they got shutout by Carolina. Buffalo allowed two goals or less in four of its first six games before getting blitzed last night by Anaheim. But Carter Hutton should be back in goal tonight (Ulmark played last night) and he's been the better of the two goalies so far, including a 25-save shutout against Dallas on Monday. One area where the Sabres are due to drop off is the power play. We saw that last night with them going just 1 for 7 while having the man advantage. Previously, they'd converted a league-high 42.9% of the time on the power play, a number which cannot be maintained. The top power play team last year converted "only" 28.2% of the time. Play UNDER Buffalo-Los Angeles

AAA

This is a 10* on the YANKEES

The Astros lead this series 2-1 after taking the last two games. Game 4 (originally set for Weds) was bumped back a day, which allows for a "re-shuffling" of the deck, pitching-wise. Both teams were intending on making Wednesday a "bullpen day," but with the rainout it will allow them to go back to their regular rotations. Now we get a repeat of the Game 1 matchup - Zack Greinke vs. Masahiro Tanaka - which was won by the Yankees 7-0. Greinke has struggled in two playoff starts, giving up five home runs. He's given up nine runs total in two games, lasting just 9 2/3 innings. Tanaka threw six innings of shutout ball in Game 1 while allowing only one hit. He's 2-0 in the playoffs as he allowed only one run and three hits against the Twins in the LDS. Houston has not done much offensively in this series as they've scored just seven runs in three games, on 17 hits. The Yankees are 70-28 their last 98 games as a home favorite of -125 to -175. They are 39-21 this year after a loss. Play on NY YANKEES

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

Kansas City has scored its two lowest point totals EVER with Patrick Mahomes as the starting QB the last two games. They lost both and now must face a Denver defense that's playing with some confidence following two straight wins, the last one coming in shutout fashion. But the Chiefs offense, even with Mahomes hobbled, is still far more dangerous than what the Broncos have faced the last two weeks. It's certainly reasonable to expect Kansas City to score at least 24 points in this game. That's something they've done every time but once with Mahomes as the starter. That one time was two weeks ago against Indianapolis. By kickoff, this could very well end up as the lowest O/U for any Chiefs game so far this season. Denver's offense is going to have to pick up some of the slack as well, but that shouldn't be a problem going against a KC defense that is struggling right now. A year ago, the Chiefs allowed the second most yards in all of football. It hardly mattered with Mahomes and the offense putting up record numbers. But now the defense is a problem for Andy Reid as it has given up 180 or more yards rushing each of the last four games. The Chiefs have given up 26 or more points four times this year. The Over is 17-5 the Chiefs past 22 road games and 3-1-1 the last five times the Broncos have been off a win by at least two touchdowns. Play OVER Kansas City-Denver

AAA

This is a 10* on DENVER

Through four weeks, the Chiefs were 4-0 and the Broncos 0-4. But the last two weeks have seen a sudden change with Kansas City losing twice and Denver winning both of its games. So it's not a shock to us to see the line "tighten" as we get closer to kickoff. We very much give the Broncos a shot of winning here despite the fact you'd have to go all the way back to 2015 to find the last time they beat the Chiefs. It's a seven-game losing streak to the Chiefs, but before that Denver had actually beaten this division rival seven straight times. Kansas City has definitely been better in recent years but Patrick Mahomes is not 100% presently (ankle) and the offense has put up its two lowest point totals EVER with him as the starter the last two games. Denver's defense is playing well right now, having held the Chargers and Titans to 13 points and 450 yards total. Obviously, neither of those teams have the offensive firepower Kansas City does. But the Broncos defense is top four in the league in yards allowed and top seven in points allowed. They may not be as stingy as they were against the last two opponents, but they have the potential to keep Kansas City under 25 points. As for the Chiefs defense, it's never really been good. Last year, Mahomes and the offense were so productive that the defense was largely an afterthought. But now the defense is a problem for Andy Reid as it has given up 180 or more yards rushing each of the last four games. The Chiefs would be on a three-game losing streak right now if it wasn't for a last minute TD against Detroit. There have been only two games this year where Denver DIDN'T have the lead going into the final minute. We'll take the points. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Louisiana was the last team in the country to lose a game ATS. The loss happened last week at home to Appalachian State (who is still undefeated straight up), 17-7. It was quite the departure offensively for a Ragin Cajuns team that had scored 35 points or more four games in a row. They were held to just over 250 total yards as well. Appalachian State had the answer for what had been a dominant Louisiana run game, holding them to just 123 yards on 33 carries. For us, the game was a 45-point win on the Under! You'd hope that game at least provided a blueprint for Arkansas State, who has struggled defensively in 2019. Virtually all of the Red Wolves games this year have been high-scoring. The fewest total points scored in any ASU game is 55 and that ironically saw them allow all 55 (shutout loss to Georgia). Oddsmakers have taken note, however, and jacked up the O/U for this game. The Red Wolves have scored 90 points the last two years against Louisiana, but this game promises to be lower-scoring. The Ragin Cajuns defense has allowed more than 25 points in just one game and that was vs. Mississippi State. They are the top Sun Belt defense in terms of points allowed and just outside the top 30 nationally. While most are going to anticipate this being a shootout, you can look for it to stay Under as that's what 11 of ASU's last 16 conference games have done. Play UNDER UL Lafayette-Arkansas State

AAA