Art Aronson

This is a 7* play on MINNESOTA

Minnesota finally broke through with a win in this series, beating Toronto yesterday by a count of 4-1. Monday had seen them lose 5-3 (thanks to the bullpen blowing a 3-1 lead in the 8th inning) and then Tuesday was a one-run loss. So you could say that the Twins were due yesterday and sure enough they came through. The teams finish out the four-game set today with a pitching matchup of Clay Buchholz vs. Michael Pineda. We think it's fair to still be concerned about a Blue Jays lineup that is batting only .215 this season. The Twins are 3-0 in starts made by Pineda so far with him delivering a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Buchholz has pitched just once, delivering Toronto a huge upset (at +190) against Tampa Bay. The Jays nearly wasted his effort as they were scoreless until the ninth when they struck for three runs. This being a day game would seem to favor the home team. Minnesota is already 6-2 in day games this season while Toronto is just 4-5. Twins earn a split of the series. Play on MINNESOTA

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER Golden State-LA Clippers

With both teams shooting better than 53% in Game 2 and combining for 266 total points, it's no wonder that the total is so high for Game 3. Of course the "real" story from Monday night is that the Clippers erased a 31-point deficit in the second half and won straight up as 14-point underdogs. In terms of margin, it was the greatest comeback in playoff history. Golden State will obviously be fired up for Game 3 and we see them turning things up on the defensive end. The Under is 4-1 the last five times the Warriors allowed 125 or more points the previous game. It is also a perfect 6-0 if they themselves topped 125 the last game. This is the highest total for any of the three games so far and three of the four regular season meetings also went Under. Neither team will shoot the ball as well as they did in Game 2 and Golden State is now without DeMarcus Cousins. Play UNDER Golden State-LA Clippers

AAA

This is an 8* play on SAN ANTONIO

San Antonio very easily - and probably should - be up 2-0 in this series. After a superb defensive effort allowed them to take Game 1, the Spurs were up by 19 in Game 2 and appeared well on their way to taking both games in Denver. But then Jamal Murray went off for the Nuggets, scoring 21 of his 24 points in the fourth quarter (had started the game 0 for 8). The Nuggets outscored the Spurs 39-23 in the 4th and now we head back to San Antonio tied at one game apiece. While having the league's best home record, Denver is below .500 on the road. San Antonio's home vs. road split is even more pronounced. They should actually be thrilled to have earned a split in Denver, given a 16-25 SU road record. At home they are 32-9 and shoot 41.9% from three-point range. Defensively, the Spurs have made major strides the last couple months. Before the 4th quarter happened Tuesday, it looked like they might hold Denver under 100 pts in two straight games. Going back to 2012, the Nuggets have lost 13 straight here in San Antonio. Play on SAN ANTONIO

AAA

This is a 7* play on CALGARY

Calgary must win to stay alive tonight (down 3-1 in the series) and fortunately they return to home ice where they won Game 1 and are 27-11-5 this season. No team had a higher goals per game average at home this year. The Flames averaged 4.05 goals/game at home in the regular season and basically hit that average in a 4-0 shutout back in Game 1. They have twice blown a third period lead in the last three games. Game 2 was here at home and they allowed the game tying goal late before losing in overtime. Game 4 in Colorado may have been even worse as they had a 2-0 lead with less than 12 minutes remaining, but then gave up two goals and lost again in OT. The Avalanche remain 2-11 their last 13 games as a road underdog of +110 and +150 and we just can't see them beating Calgary four straight times. Play on CALGARY

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER Seattle-LA Angels

Something had to give last night as the Mariners, losers of six in a row, took on an Angels team that had dropped three straight. Turns out that it was the former's losing skid that came to an end and it did so in a way that has been all too familiar - Seattle scoring a ton of runs. They won 11-10, increasing their league leading total of runs scored to 143 (in 22 games played). The Mariners actually blew an 8-run advantage before scoring the go-ahead run in the top of the 9th. The Angels scored all but one of their runs in one inning (7th) and the absence of a big inning tonight is probable for a team that's gone 13-5-1 Under in all games this season. Even worse is they are facing a lefty (Marco Gonzales) and are 1-4 vs. lefties (Under is 5-0), scoring only 1.8 runs/game and batting .173. Gonzales has allowed three runs or fewer in three straight starts. Seattle had cooled off considerably at the plate before yesterday's explosion. During the six-game losing streak, all of which was at home, they had scored a total of 15 runs. Angels starter Pena has a 1.05 ERA in two home starts. Play UNDER Seattle-LA Angels

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER Royals-Yankees

The surprising thing about last night's game between the Royals and Yankees was who won. The Royals punched a ticket at +182 on the money line, winning 6-1 here at Yankee Stadium. New York continues to struggle as their record is 8-10, although having a positive run differential says they've played better than you might think. What was not surprising about last night's game is that it stayed Under the total. The Yankees last five games have all stayed Under. For the Royals, that streak is four straight. Expect tonight's game to be another low scoring affair. The Yankees are averaging only 3.8 runs per game at home. We mentioned that in another Under play we had on them earlier this week (against Boston). The Royals are scoring even less on the road (3.4 runs/game) while batting .218. All three Jake Junis starts have gone Over this year, but it's critical to note two of them did not see more than nine total runs scored. CC Sabathia pitched better than anyone could have imagined in his only start. He held the White Sox scoreless for five frames while allowing just one hit. Play UNDER Royals-Yankees

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER Boston-Indiana

Talk about low scoring. It doesn't get much more low scoring than what we've seen in the first two games of this Celtics-Pacers series. Boston is up 2-0 despite not scoring 100 points in either game. They've held Indiana to 74 and 91 points, really taking charge in the second half of both games. After shooting very poorly themselves in the first half of Game 1, the Celtics held the Pacers to eight points in the third quarter and went on to cruise to victory. Game 2 saw them hold Indiana without a field goal over the last five minutes. But now the Pacers are back home and we should see a pretty substantial improvement in their shooting. They are just 38.8% from the field in the series, including 31% from three-point range. For the year, they are shooting 47.8% overall and 38.1% from three at home. Boston is also a better offensive team that what they've shown so far. Only three players scored more than six points in Game 2 and you figure that has to change as well. The Pacers have had three sub-20 point quarters in the series. There will be nothing of the sort Friday as the Over is 4-1 the last five meetings in Indiana. Play OVER Boston-Indiana

AAA