Art Aronson

This is a 10* on OVER

The Sharks are off to a 3-0 start. They scored nine times in the first two games, beating Winnipeg 4-3 and Montreal 5-0. Then came a 2-1 win over Ottawa two nights ago. They are scoring on 13.7% of their shot attempts thus far, which is a very high number, but it should continue tonight when they face Toronto’s backup goaltender. Michael Hutchinson is getting the callup from the AHL to start this one for the Maple Leafs. Their #1 goaltender (Jack Campbell) is set to start tomorrow’s game against the Penguins. All four Toronto games so far have gone Under with none seeing more than five combined goals scored. But this one should put an end to that streak. We don’t see the backup goalie doing all that well in his first start as he’s only getting the shot because Toronto’s normal backup (Petr Mrazek) sustained a groin injury in the Ottawa game. Before losing the last game 2-1 to the Rangers, the Leafs had scored multiple games in each of the first three games. San Jose’s goaltenders haven’t faced very many shots thus far. That should change in this game. Toronto is averaging 37.0 shots/contest. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on BROOKLYN

The Nets will look to rebound from a poor Opening Night performance when they travel to Philadelphia on Friday. The Sixers are a mess right now with the ongoing Ben Simmons drama. Of course, Brooklyn has its own share of drama with Kyrie Irving. But they can still call upon both Kevin Durant and James Harden. That may have not been enough when facing Milwaukee Tuesday, but we expect them to play far better here. The 76ers did beat the Pelicans by 20 on Wednesday. But tonight they are unlikely to shoot the ball as well as they did in that first game when they connected on over half their field goal attempts, including 52% from three. Really, this play boils down to two simple things: we think the Nets are better and also can’t see them starting 0-2. They were underdogs Tuesday. Tonight they are favorites. They are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. Play on BROOKLYN

AAA

This is a 10* on BOSTON

All of a sudden, the Red Sox have stopped hitting and they now find themselves facing elimination heading into Game 6 at Houston. The last two games, Boston has managed only eight hits and three runs, a far cry from the first two games of this ALCS when they had 32 hits and 25 runs. In fact, there was a six-game stretch in these playoffs where the Red Sox scored 51 times and collected 79 hits! We think they get back to that tonight with their season on the line. They’ll be facing Luis Garcia again. Garcia could only record three outs when he started Game 2 and served up one of the three Red Sox grand slams in this series. Boston will give the baseball to Nathan Eovaldi. He has a 10-1 team start record since August 23rd and has posted a 0.89 WHIP in his last three starts. Eovaldi’s recent numbers are a far cry from those of Garcia, who has an 0-3 TSR, 13.49 ERA and 2.54 WHIP in his last three trips to the mound. Yes, we remember that Eovaldi was one of the culprits in letting Game 4 get away (which really turned this series). But that was a unique relief situation and we expect him to resume his string of excellent starts. Over the last month-plus, the Red Sox have only one losing streak of more than two games. That won’t happen here. Play on BOSTON

This is a 10* on UCF

UCF has seen its season go in a bad direction ever since QB Dillon Gabriel was injured on the final play of the Louisville game. That play saw Gabriel throw a pick six to cost his team the game and they’ve lost two of three since. One of the losses was to Navy as a 15-point favorite. The other was last week to Cincinnati as a 22-point underdog. We’re obviously not going to penalize a team for losing to Cincinnati. In between the losses, both of which came on the road, the Golden Knights did defeat East Carolina 20-16 here at home. Now they are hosting Memphis on Friday. The Tigers come in having just snapped their own three-game losing streak. They beat Navy 35-17 at the Liberty Bowl. It was the first time this season that Memphis faced a FBS opponent and the game wasn’t decided by six points or less. We can see the home team squeaking out a close one here. Memphis relied on big plays to beat Navy, something they can’t always count on. The Tigers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games and 3-10 ATS coming off a straight up win. The last 14 meetings between the two schools have seen the home team cover 13 times and the one exception was UCF. Play on UCF

AAA

This is an 8* on AIR FORCE

6-0 San Diego State holds two wins over the Pac 12. But the Aztecs face their toughest test to date this week at Air Force. The Falcons also have six wins this year. They did lose once, a 49-45 shootout vs. Utah State where both teams had over 600 total yards of offense. You should not expect that amount of offense in this game. Oddsmakers opened the total at 42.5 and it has DROPPED. Also, that loss to Utah State is looking more curious with each passing week as the AFA defense has not given up more than 17 points in any other game! Boise State, whom the Falcons beat 24-17 last Saturday, is the only other team besides Utah State to even crack 300 yards on this defense (Broncos gained 337). San Diego State has a nice defense too. But the season average is still on par with Air Force despite the Falcons having that one bad game. San Diego State is lucky to still be undefeated as they needed two overtimes last Friday to get by San Jose State. The Aztecs were outgained 345-240 and had just six points (two field goals) at the end of regulation. They just do not have the offense to keep up in Colorado Springs where they will be frothing at the mouth to end an eight-game losing streak to SDSU. At least one unbeaten team goes down on Saturday night. Play on AIR FORCE

AAA

This is a 9* on OVER

Oh hi Penn State, we’d almost forgotten about you. It’s been two weeks since the Nittany Lions suffered their first loss of the year. They lost 23-20 at Iowa, a game where their four turnovers played a significant role in the outcome. James Franklin’s team got last week off to recoup and now should be ready to hand out a beatdown in State College to visiting Illinois. The Fighting Illini come into this one with a 2-5 straight up record and one of those wins came back in August. That would be when we had them vs. Nebraska in the season opener and they pulled the upset. They too are coming off a bye. Despite that, both teams could be without their starting quarterbacks for this one. We still like the Over. Illinois should be used to playing without Brandon Peters at this point. Backup Artur Sitkowski was in for the first two games where the Illini put up 30 plus points. Illinois can also run the ball as the duo of Brown and McCray have gone for 748 yards. We don’t have much confidence in the Illini’s ability to defend, however. Starter Sean Clifford practiced this week for Penn State. But the Nittany Lions may not even need him. That’s because Illinois’ defense ranks last in the Big 10 in scoring, pass defense, total defense and third down rate. They allowed 493 yards in the last game (to a Wisconsin offense that hasn’t been impressive otherwise). Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Except when they played Georgia (gave up 56 points) and Liberty (gave up 36), the defense of UAB has been pretty stout in 2021. That’s nothing new under Bill Clark. The Blazers had a solid defense last year as well. The Under is 6-1 in their games this season and 5-0 the last five. They are not facing an opponent the caliber of Georgia or Liberty this week. Rice has been shutout twice and scored no more than 17 points four different times. But UAB could put this one Over themselves. Again, taking away those two games vs. Georgia and Liberty, the Blazers offense has scored a minimum of 28 points every game. They’ve scored 31 and 34 the past two games and that was against defenses that aren’t as bad as the one they face this week. Rice gave up 45 last week at UTSA. It was the fifth game this season where the Owls allowed at least 34 points. They’ve allowed 34 or more in half of their games. Give us at least one touchdown Rice and we’ll like our chances with the Over. The Over has hit in all of Rice’s previous five visits to Birmingham. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on ARMY

After consecutive three point victories (over Louisville and Syracuse), undefeated Wake Forest probably needed the week off. The 6-0 Demon Deacons, now ranked 16th in the land, will next put that record to the test against Army. A week off before facing the Cadets is always preferable due to the added preparation for the triple option offense. But in the case of Wake, we just don’t see them having much success stopping Army’s ground game on Saturday. In those last two wins we spoke of (Louisville, Syracuse), Wake allowed 567 yards rushing. Ouch. Army averages nearly 300 rush yards/game. They were held well below that mark last week. But that was because they were facing a Wisconsin defense that is #1 in the country vs. the run and thus uniquely suited to stop them. The same can’t be said for this Demon Deacons’ defense. Army was 4-0 before suffering a shocking loss to Ball State, then losing by three in Madison. Now getting to play host to a Power 5 school will ensure there is no letdown in West Point. Wake is 1-5 ATS its last six tries as a road favorite. Army has covered seven of the last nine times it has been an underdog to a Power 5 team. Play on ARMY

AAA