Art Aronson

10* Oral Roberts (SUMMIT GOY)

I think that the 10-12 South Dakota Coyotes are in over their heads tonight visiting the 19-4 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles. South Dakota is coming off a win over St. Thomas MN, while Oral Roberts beat Omaha on Saturday. South Dakota though is just 2-7 on the road and it only averages 69.4 PPG. It's won three straight ATS, but that's only helped in driving down this spread in favor of the Golden Eagles. Oral Roberts has lost two of its last three ATS, but I expect it to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one. Note that it enters averaging 84.5 PPG, ranked fifth in the country. All signs point to a lop-sided blowout; the play is Oral Roberts!

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10* UNDER Lakers/Nets (NON-CONF TOY)

The Lakers have been trading high-scoring games with lower-scoring ones over their last five games, and off a 125-121 OT loss in Boston, I'm expecting this pattern to continue. And with a game at the Knicks tomorrow night, the last thing that LA wants to do here is turn this into a shootout with the Nets. Brooklyn lhas seen the total go "over" the number in three straight, and that's something we need to take note of here, as the Nets have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. With a much more important game at Boston on the 1st of February, I say the home side also gets caught "looking ahead" here. Boston woni 116-103 in LA back in November and the total sailed OVER the number of 2l8 in that one. I believe we'll see a similar final combined score here as well; the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Magic/76ers (EAST-COAST EXPRESS)

Both teams have been playing to some higher-scoring affairs of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Orlando had won three of four before a two-game losing streak. It's coming off a l28-109 home loss to the Bulls. It's been trading high-scoring games with lower-scoring ones over its last six games and I expect that pattern to continue here. The last time these teams played, the 76ers managed the 133-103 win, which is important for us to note here, as Orlando has also seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss of 25 or more points vs. an opponent. This is the start of two straight between the teams here in Philly, and I expect a much more defensive affair than what the bookmakers are trying to lead us to believe; the play is indeed on the "under!"

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6* Hurricanes (SPECIAL)

It's the final game before the All Star break for both teams. I expect the Kings to just "go through the motions" here though, while I believe that Carolina truly wants to finish off the first half with one last victory, after steamrolling its way to the No. 1 spot in the Metropolitan, overtaking the idle Devils over the last two weeks. Carolina has won five straight and everything points to it keeping the foot on the gas one more night. LA's five-game road trip started well with three straight wins, but it fell 5-2 at Tampa most recently. A loss tonight, and it's still a successful overall trip. Look for Carolina to go up early and keep the pedal to the metal until the final horn blares; lay the price with confidence, the play is Carolina! 

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10* UNDER Northwestern/Iowa (BIG TEN TOY)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting a much more defensive affair this evening. Both teams have done decently to this point. Northwestern is 15-5, while Iowa is 13-8. The Wildcats enter on a three-game win skein. Most recently they beat Minnesota by a score of 81-61. I'm expecting a similar final combined score here as well, as Northwestern only averages 69.8 PPG, but makes up for it on the defensive end, holding opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 46.8 percent, ranked 45th. So expect the visitors to slow this one down at all costs. Iowa averages 81.3 PPG, but it's been trading high-scoring "overs" with low-scoring "unders" over its last six games, and off a 93-82 home win over Rutgers last time out, all signs point to this pattern continuing. Expect a more methodical pace here; the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* Heat (ASSASSIN)

While I do think an outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. Miami's three-game win streak just came to an end in a 122-117 loss at Charlotte, but that's important for us to note here as Miami 7-3 ATS in its last ten after a SU/ATS loss as a favorite. It plays with revenge here as well after falling l13-87 at home to Cleveland as a seven-point dog at the start of the season. That's also signficant to note here, as the Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss in which they were held to 95 or fewer points in against an opponent. Cleveland has been trading ATS wins/losses over its last seven games, and off a 122-99 home win over the Clippers as an 11-point fav, I expect this pattern to continue here. In what I expect to be a very competitive affair, I'm grabbing the points; the play is Miami!

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