Matt Fargo

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our Sunday Free Play. The Ravens are coming off a big win over Buffalo on Sunday which moved it to 2-2 following a 0-2 start. It was their best performance of the season and the offense was dominant for a second straight week following a victory over Dallas in Week Three, a game the Ravens nearly blew a massive 28-6 fourth quarter lead. They are now in a tough situation as they hit the road for their first divisional game now being considered a front runner again in the AFC following their 0-2 start. The metrics are on their side offensively as the Ravens are No. 1 in Offensive DVOA and No. 3 in Offensive EPA and they do have an edge over the Bengals defense that has underperformed but the spot sets up well with expected Baltimore regression in the running game. The Cincinnati offense has begun to heat up the last two weeks, having scored 33 and 34 points against Washington and Carolina respectively. Those are two bad defenses but the Baltimore defense has been nothing special this season prior to stepping up against Josh Allen and the Bills as the Ravens are just No. 18 in Defensive EPA. Quarterback Joe Burrow has quietly put up three straight exceptional games with passer ratings of 100.5, 127.5 and 103.7, the latter against a solid Kansas City defense. He has his full complement of receivers back and can touch up this Baltimore secondary that is No. 19 in Defensive Passing EPA. AFC North Divisional underdogs are 23-14 ATS since 2021. Play (456) Cincinnati Bengals

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This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Star Attraction. Green Bay got the good news last week as it welcomed quarterback Jordan Love back after missing two games but the bad news is that he was clearly rusty and the defense did him no favors as the Packers fell behind 28-0 in an eventual 31-29 loss to the Vikings. Love was able to spread the ball around and he threw for 389 yards and four touchdowns but also threw three interceptions and that will get cleaned up this week. Green Bay faced a very good Vikings defense and were eventually able to find their way and despite Love out for two games, the Packers are No. 3 in Offensive DVOA and No. 10 in Offensive EPA. Now they face a Rams defense that is No. 31 in Defensive DVOA and No. 32 in Defensive EPA and they have struggled against both the pass and run so expect more balance from Green Bay after last week having to shift to a mostly passing attack. The Rams are fortunate not to be 0-4 as they were able to pick up a near miracle win against the 49ers where their win probability at one point late in the game was at five percent. 13 of their 27 points against the 49ers came in the fourth quarter and this has been the story all season as Los Angeles has scored a total of 40 points in the first three quarters while scoring 32 points in the fourth quarter. Injuries have crushed the offense and while the wide receivers have been the story, the offensive line has been devasted as well with three starters on IR. Receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp remain out and the offense has dipped to second half of the league in DVOA and EPA. While the Rams are No. 8 in Offensive rushing EPA, they face a Green Bay defense that is No. 4 in Defensive Rushing EPA. 10* (469) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. While Minnesota has been the big surprise in the league, Washington is right up there as it has been the talk the last two weeks and their offensive output. Those games against Arizona and Cincinnati were against defenses ranked No. 28 and No. 26 in Defensive EPA respectively so the Commanders were far from challenged. Jayden Daniels has been outstanding as he has completed 82.1 percent of his passes and has posted a 107.4 passer rating but this will be his first test against a strong defense. The Browns were one of the best in the NFL last season in EPA and DVOA and while they have slipped some this season, the opener against Dallas has a lot to do with that and they have been much better the last three weeks, albeit against some pedestrian offenses. Cleveland defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has done a great job of game planning and the key here is to clean up the missed tackles. The Browns offense has been one of the worst in the NFL as they have yet to score 20 points in four games and they have not exactly faced a potent defense. That does not change here as they now get to go against the worst defense they have encountered with Washington ranked No. 30 in both Defensive DVOA and EPA and this is the breakout game they need if they want to salvage this season. The offensive line has been a big problem but they are starting to get healthy again. This is also a play on the spread which absolutely looks like a trap line. Washington has looked like one of the best teams over the last two weeks yet are favored by just a field goal as of Wednesday, just a half-point more that what Las Vegas was favored by over Cleveland last week. 10* (463) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Jacksonville came through with the cover but failed to pick up the win as it could not hold the lead it got halfway through the third quarter, allowing a touchdown with 18 seconds left to remain the only winless team in the NFL. The Jaguars easily could have won their first two games, then they ran into a buzzsaw in Buffalo before another game last week they could have won. The offense has gotten the blame but they are No. 21 in Offensive DVOA which is far from great but hardly horrible and they will be facing an average defense this week as the Colts are No. 17 in Defensive DVOA as their best two games were against the Packers without Jordan Love and still lost and against Bears rookie Caleb Williams. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has now lost nine straight starts and is 20-34 in his career and he is coming off a mistake free game with another great chance to break that streak. The Colts defeated the Steelers last week to make it two straight wins but they suffered two big blows. Quarterback Anthony Richardson had to leave the game with a hip injury putting this game in question although there is optimism he will play. If not, it will be Joe Flacco and at this point, there is no difference in the betting market and who will lead this team. The bigger injury was the ankle sprain of Jonathan Taylor who has not practiced. He is ranked fifth in the NFL in rushing with 349 yards and they will not bring him back early after suffering the same injury last season and came back too early as he reaggravated it. The Jaguars defense has been the real issue as they are No. 32 in Defensive DVOA but that is due to the last two games as they played solid the first two against a comparable offense. 10* (460) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our AFC Game of the Month. Buffalo is coming off its first loss of the season and it was not even close as the Bills were dominated from the start and that was a loss that can actually help going forward. This will be their second straight road game but have the ideal situation coming off an embarrassing stand alone game loss and now finally playing their first 1:00 game of the season. Buffalo is ranked in the top five in both Offensive DVOA and EPA and face a Texans defense that is ranked No. 17 in Defensive EPA so we ae expecting a big bounce back from the offense that scored only 10 points last week. The 12 first downs generated were the fewest for a Buffalo team in five years. Houston has not been impressive in its 3-1 start and neither has C.J. Stroud who is well below his averages from last season and we expected regression from him and the Texans as a whole after winning the AFC South last season. They allowed Indianapolis to stick around the entire game and against Chicago, they needed four field goals, three from 50+, to get by while needing a late score last week to get past Jacksonville. Stroud did have a solid game but that was against a defense ranked dead last in DVOA and second to last in EPA. Despite the Bills injuries and suspensions, the Texans take a big step up. Buffalo was torched on defense against the Ravens but are still a respectable No. 10 in Defensive DVOA and in the only other two games they have faced a defense ranked in the top half of the league in DVOA, they managed 26 combined points. Early money has poured in on Buffalo yet the line has not moved and that is certainly telling. 10* (457) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Early Dominator. Minnesota is the surprise of the NFL as it is off to a 4-0 start and has been the most dominating team not only because of the perfect straight up record but the Vikings are off to a 4-0 ATS start, covering by an average of 16.2 ppg. Now is the time to go against this streak as we have seen a line flip from +2.5 to -2.5 based on overall success and what was seem last week. Defeating the Giants in Week One was nothing special and the last three wins, they have had great situation, facing the 49ers in their first road game coming off a big home win over the Jets, facing an overvalued Houston team that was 2-0 and last week going up against Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love making his first start since opening week and very rusty early on. This will be the toughest matchup quarterback Sam Darnold has faced. The Jets are coming off a bad home loss against Denver as they missed a late field goal for the win but the conditions were horrible which hurt their offense more than it affected the Broncos offense. They managed only 248 total yards with quarterback Aaron Rodgers going just 24-42 where the rain made a difference in the accuracy. He faces a tough defense this week as the Vikings are No. 1 in DVOA and No. 3 in EPA but he is one of a very few quarterbacks than can work around this. The big edge for the Jets is the defense as they are No. 1 in Passing EPA Defense and they have allowed just 30 points in their last three games after giving up 32 in their season opener. Not only do we expect Rodgers to bounce back but we expect the Jets defense to continue to dominate. 10* (451) New York Jets