Michael Alexander

Rating: 2 Units

Only one game today and both teams are playing the back end of a back to back. I was originally gonna lay off this game but the Caps are getting Dimitry Orlov and Carl Hagelin out of COVID protocol and will have their full defense. Canucks have now lost 3 straight and they are missing a couple players today including their backup goalie. So either Thatcher Demko makes a second start in two days or the Canucks go with a third stringer they just called up. I like the Caps at home.

Rating: 2 Units

The Chiefs couldn’t have handpicked a better opening round opponent this Wild Card weekend. They’ve allowed an NFL worst 7.6 yards per play in the past two weeks. Over the same span, the Steelers have averaged 4.0 yards per play on offense. Kansas City has surrendered 12.9 PPG over the last eight games of the season. Pittsburgh has averaged 297.6 YPG over the same span. After starting the season 3-4, the Chiefs enter this contest on a 9-1 overall win skein, meaning they are surging at the right time. In fact, Kansas City is 19-3 SU and 13-8-1 ATS from Game Twelve out the past three seasons. Toss in Patrick Mahomes’ 27-1 SU and 16-11-1 ATS mark in his last 28 games during November, December, and January, and you know who will be advancing on to the divisional Round of the playoffs next week. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is just 4-4 in its last eight games, losing the stats in seven of those contests. And in his last four games, QB Ben Roethlisberger has posted QB Ratings of 80.1, 56.2, 73.4 and 80.1. Yikes. That would find most starters on the bench in this league. Furthermore, Big Ben is 1-6 SU with only two ATS covers in his seven career starts as a dog of 7 or more points, while the Steel City’s 2.2 PPG in the 1Q is the lowest in the league this season – KC’s 7.6 is the best.

Rating: 2 Units

Defending Super Bowl champions have fared well at home the following postseason when coming off a win, going 13-2 SU and 10-4-1 ATS since 1990. Enter the Eagles, owners of the worst record of all teams still playing these days (read: fellow playoff foes) in the NFL. We are fully aware that you can only play the teams on your schedule, but after the Eagles followed their 2-5 start with a 7-3 run to clinch a playoff spot, it should be noted that four of those wins came against teams with a backup QB – and it’s only fair to note they didn’t beat a single team with a winning record. In fact, Philadelphia was laid to rest in each of its six games against fellow playoff squads this season. To close it out, consider that NFL playoff teams who won 4 or fewer games last season are 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS since 1981 when coming off a loss of more than 7 points.

Rating: 2 Units

Ever since the league first expanded the playoff field to 12 teams, and began seeding them in 1990, at least four new clubs have reached the postseason every successive year. The 2021-22 lineup features seven (50%) new teams – and two of them lock horns here, while also including the likes of the Cardinals, Bengals, Raiders, Patriots, and Eagles. After a 2-5 start, the Niners won eight of their final 10 games to qualify for the postseason, beating three playoff teams in the process. That’s a pretty strong body of work. Since the 49ers began using WR/RB Deebo Samuel extensively in the backfield in Week Ten, Samuel has been one of the NFL’s most unstoppable offensive weapons. He tied for the league high with 11 touchdowns over that span, and ranked No. 4 in yards from scrimmage (1,006). On the other side of the ball, since Dallas QB Dak Prescott returned to the lineup in Week 9 the offense has sputtered. Prescott ranked No. 11 in Total QBR in Weeks 1 to 6, but only No. 17 in Weeks 9 to 17. Worse, the Cowboys have beaten up on Washington and Eagles backups lately. Complicating matters, Jerry’s Boys are the worst team in the loop in Penalties Per Game (7.5) this season. Yes, Dallas was 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS in conference play this season, but the Pokes are just 3-10 SUATS in the playoffs since 1997, including 1-6 ATS as a favorite.