Mr. East

Nobody wants a part of the Colts right now. They tied Houston and were shutout by Jacksonville, and now they have to deal with Pat Mahomes. The over-reaction of NFL bettors regarding a team that was shutout last week is substantial and line influencing. Since the 2014 season a team off a shutout is 29-13-2 ATS. That goes to 10-1-1 ATS if the line is fewer than 9 points. Looks ugly, but the NFL better bets usually do look ugly. Make the play on Indianapolis.

Both Denver and San Francisco have played 2 games under the total. They have both showed some strong defense and at the same time neither offense has looked very impressive. Their games have combined to average about 40 total points. This game features Denver at home and early in the season. Looking at all Denver home games through week3 the over covers 61.1% of all games. I think a good part of that is defenses are in full game shape early in the season and the high altitude makes that worse. I expect a lot more offense in this one. Make the play over the total.

This game fits a situation that is 172-117 ATS to the under, and I like the fact that both teams have their season on the line which usually means intense battles at the line of scrimmage. Make the play under the total.

This is a season saving game for one of these teams. If a team starts 0-3 the chances of making the playoffs is really low. Both these teams made the playoffs last year, so this is a huge game for both teams. Ryan Tannehill has seen his passing numbers plunge without AJ Brown. That goes back before he was signed by the Eagles. He averaged fewer than 5 and a half yards per pass without Brown, and so far this season he has been under 5. He also lost LT Taylor Lewan. The Tennessee running game has been stopped. Without the offensive line performing at a modest level, Henry can find no running room. The Tennessee defense has been very poor. The Titans are a negative -2 yards per play in terms of what the defense allows and the offense produces. Las Vegas is a net positive in that regard, and I think Davante Adams is in for a big day here. Vegas opened up as a dog, but are rightfully posted as the favorite as they are significantly better on both sides of the ball.

The Detroit Lions have been bad for a long time. They seemed to be short on both sides of the ball, but through 2 games and a 1-1 record the Lions offense has looked as good as anyone, while the defense has been average. Minnesota has been below average offensively and defensively. The Vikings just surrendered nearly 500 yards to Philadelphia and ran the ball just 11 times. Detroit has a decent pass rush, and I think they will be disruptive here. Goff has outplayed Cousins through 2 games, and that may continue here. Detroit broke an 8 game losing streak to Minnesota last year, and I think this is too many points in a division game that looks a lot closer to me. Make the play on Detroit.