Mr. East

This game fits a situation that is 67-38 ATS and the play is on Nevada.

This game fits a situation that is 322-192 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 322-192 ATS and the play is on the under.

The Arizona Cardinals went to Green Bay last Sunday and upset the Packers as a 2 TD underdog. That places them in a huge letdown spot here as a team that won on the road as an 11.5 or more point underdog is just 15-39-1 ATS in their next game. If the opponent isn't worth getting up for and has a winning percentage of less than .600 it drops to 7-31 ATS. (3-19 ATS from week 11 out). Make the play on Detroit.

The Denver Broncos have played their way back into the playoff picture at 6-6. They have lost Emmanuel Sanders for the season and also SB Chris Harris Jr. The Broncos have a myriad of injuries with 17 on the injury report. Sam Francisco has coughed up the ball 5 times in their last 2 games, and it hides how well they have moved the ball. The Niners offense has managed just 25 points but their 6.1 yards per play in the 2 games is well above average for an NFL team. Nick Mullins is passing at 8.1 yards an attempt which is very high, so look for the Niners offense to have success vs a depleted Denver defense. Make the play on San Francisco.

Le'Veon Bell decided not to play this season, so the Steelers went with first-year starting running back James Conner. Conner filled in admirably, but now he has been declared out against Oakland. That leaves the running game to Rookie Jaylen Samuels and veteran Stevan Ridley. Combined they have carried the ball 30 times for 87 yards, so expect a big drop off in the Pittsburgh running game. The Steelers are 5-0-1 SU/5-1 ATS this year when rushing for 100+ yards, and 2-4 SU/1-5 ATS rushing for less than 100 yards. (a pair of wins by 3, and 4 points). Oakland played the Chiefs to a 7 point game last week, out-gained by just 29 yards. It was 3 turnovers that did them in. Pittsburgh has turned the ball over 8 times in their last 3 games, and Big Ben has tossed 13 INT's on the season. Home dogs of +9.5 or more in the NFL are 105-81-5 ATS covering 56.5% of all games. Make the play on Oakland.

The Carolina Panthers had it all going in the first half of the season at 6-2. They have yet to win a game in the 2nd half where they are 0-4. I think the market has now under-valued this team. The Panthers despite losing their last 3 out-gained all 3 opponents. last week may have been rock bottom for Cam Newton as he threw 4 INT's, something he hadn't done since his rookie year. The Browns are 2-12 ATS in a game following scoring less than 14 points. The Panthers fit a situation that is 54-16 ATS in this one. Make the play on Carolina.

The LA Rams are 11-1 and put a lot of pressure on a defense as they have scored 29 or more points in 11 of 12 games. They also have a huge game changer on defense in Aaron Donald. Donald leads the NFL with 16.5 sacks and has also made 20 tackles for a loss. He also has 32 QB hits. he has had 10.5 sacks in one-possession games. The Rams are 16-0 in a game in which he records a sack going back to last year. he wears down the opponent as 7.5 of his sacks have come in the 4th quarter, and 21 of his QB hits. All 4 of his forced fumbles have resulted in a Rams TD. he will go against rookie G James Daniels, which is a total mismatch, but Daniels will get a lot of help with double teams. Goff had a breakout season a year ago, but has been even better this season. The Rams got Aqib Talib back for 26 snaps last week, and it is no coincidence the Rams defense was better than it had been in awhile. Bears QB Mitch Trubitsky will likely return from a shoulder injury, but with Donald on the other side he could be a play from being hit again. The Bears have allowed at least 3 sacks in 2 straight games, and after doing so and playing at home they are a woeful 0-12 ATS. With the sack master in the house make the play on LA.