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Mr. East |
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| All football picks now 66-42 ATS 61.6% as of November 29. |
| PICKS IN PROGRESS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NBA | Jan 19, 2020 Pacers vs Nuggets |
OVER 211½ -110 | |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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This game fits a total situation that is extremely strong and is 162-84 ATS. The play is on the under. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NFL | Jan 19, 2020 Packers vs 49ers |
Packers +7½ -110 at Bovada |
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| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
| The Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers meet for all the marbles with the winner going to the Super Bowl. All the stuffed suits are explaining how the Packers have no chance. Aaron Rodgers is off, missing passes. He has just one bonafide receiver in DeVonte Adams. The Packers can't run the ball on this team, so the only other weapon the Packers have in Adam Jones will be negated. The Packers didn't cross midfield until under 9 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter in game one. They were undressed 37-8 in that game and totaled fewer than 200 yards. Rodgers threw for under 4 yards per pass attempt. On and on it goes to the point my NFL contrarian has been triggered. Remember the 2010 playoffs. The Jets were spanked by New England 48-3. The Jets went to New England and won. Well, a team that won the regular-season game and meet in the playoffs are: playoffs = 1 and P:W and P:season = seasonSU:70-51-0 (1.44, 57.9%) Teaser RecordsATS:48-68-5 (-1.24, 41.4%) How about apples to apples. They won as a home favorite are a home favorite again?: playoffs = 1 and P:HFW and P:season = season and HFSU:24-11-0 (4.37, 68.6%) Teaser RecordsATS:13-21-1 (-2.20, 38.2%)Even worse. How about more apples to apples. Same as above, but they won the regular-season game by more than 4 TD's (>28 points): playoffs = 1 and P:HFW and P:season = season and HF and P:margin > 28SU:3-1-0 (2.00, 75.0%) Teaser RecordsATS:0-4-0 (-6.25, 0.0%)Obviously this doesn't happen much. The point of all this is simple, what happened at best in the first game doesn't matter or what happened in the 1st game matters a lot. That first game saw GB complete a 10-yard pass to Adams on the first drive, but he gt a 15-yard penalty. Next play a strip-sack, and SF scores from the 2. Brian Bulaga and David Bakhtiari matter on the GB offensive line. Bulaga was injured in the first quarter and never returned, and Bakhtiari played poorly a lot of the season, but from that game on he has been all-pro caliber again. Rodgers was sacked 5 times, with countless hurries, and I think things are different. Many will claim the Packers are the worst 14-3 team to ever reach the Championship game. They have been out-gained on the season by opponents. All the optics look bad. There is a reason they are 14-3. They don't turn the ball over, and that is a biggest factor of all stats. The Packers had 10 clean games this season (0 turnovers). They were 9-1 SU and 9-1 ATS in those games. San Francisco had 4 clean games. A playoff dog that wins the turnover battle is 66-9-4 ATS. If they are a dog from +2 to +9.5 they are 62-5-3 ATS. I don't know who is going to win the turnover battle. What I do know is turnovers will determine the outcome more than any other stats by light-years. I'm betting contrarian on the game and supporting that with the fact that the Packers have a strong chance for a clean game, and the Niners do not. Make the play on Green Bay. | ||
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All football picks now 66-42 ATS 61.6% as of November 29.
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