Mike Lundin

Golden Knights vs Wild Free Pick

The Angle(s): The Vegas Golden Knights are rolling with four straight wins and offer value at this price. Vegas has been winning every kind of game, from a 6-2 rout in Seattle to tight one-goal wins over Toronto and Los Angeles, and their only loss came in a one-goal game against Anaheim. A team this sharp shouldn’t be price like this against an average opponent.

The Minnesota Wild are in a classic flat spot. They return home after a three-game swing through Buffalo, Tampa and Florida, where they dropped two one-goal games before beating the Panthers on Saturday, and the first game back from an Eastern trip is often a sluggish one. Minnesota also heads to Winnipeg tomorrow night, so the Wild may be looking ahead to a divisional rival.

The Bet: Vegas ML (3%). 

30-17 (64%) run, +$11,530 on $1k flat bets dating back to Sep 30!

We have 3 premium picks,, 2 x 4% TOP PLAYS going Monday. Grab a 7.day subscription for $174.95, and your whole week is covered with expert picks picks across NFL, CFB, MLB, NHL and UFC!. 

4% Bills v Rams MNF TOP PLAY

The Angle(s): The Buffalo Bills (3-1) are the highest-scoring team in football with 127 points through four games, and they bring the No. 2 offense by DVOA into a matchup that suits them. The Bills also come in off a 29-26 home loss to the Patriots, a classic bounce-back spot for a team that is 3-1 against the spread.

Recent history backs it up too: Buffalo has won two of the last three meetings straight up and against the number, averaging 36 points per game in those contests.

The Rams (2-2) are getting public money on name value, but this team turns the ball over at a league-worst rate and just lost Myles Garrett to injured reserve, removing the edge rusher who was supposed to anchor the pass rush. Buffalo is missing Ed Oliver up front, but that absence is already baked into the number. In a game that projects as one score either way, I'll take the points with the more efficient offense. 

The Bet: Bills ATS (4%).

4% NHL TOP PLAY of the Day

The Angle(s): The Ottawa Senators look strong in the standings, but the record flatters them. Three of their four wins came by a single goal, including tight escapes against a winless Flyers team and the Predators on Saturday, and Linus Ullmark left the Boston game hurt. Ottawa also has a home date with St. Louis tomorrow night, so this is the first half of a road-home back-to-back for a team that has been living on razor-thin margins.

The New Jersey Devils come home in better form than their 2-2-0 record suggests after a convincing 4-1 win over Vancouver on Saturday, and they took the most recent meeting between these clubs 4-3 last April. The money and the sharp action are both on New Jersey here, and I agree. Back the Devils on home ice against a 4-1-0 Senators team due for some regression.

The Bet: Devils ML (4%). 

Guardians v Rays MLB BOOKIE BREAKER

The Angle(s): The Cleveland Guardians come into the ALCS battle-tested and red hot. After falling behind the White Sox 0-2 in the ALDS, Cleveland won three straight elimination games, capped by a 2-0 shutout in Game 5 on Saturday. The Tampa Bay Rays, meanwhile, have been sitting since wrapping up the Yankees last week, a classic rhythm-versus-rust spot that tends to keep Game 1 tight.

This series projects as a pitchers' duel from start to finish. Tampa Bay owns one of the lowest WHIPs in baseball, and Cleveland lives on pitching and run prevention, which is why their July series at Tropicana Field featured scores of 3-0 and 1-0. Low-scoring postseason baseball between two elite staffs is exactly where the run line earns its keep, and I'll take the extra run and a half with the team riding the most momentum in the bracket.

The Bet: Guardians +1.5 (3%)

Dodgers v Brewers MLB BOOKIE BU$TER

The Angle(s): The Milwaukee Brewers took Game 1 of the NLCS 2-1, yet the Los Angeles Dodgers are still priced as favorites at American Family Field. That's the market paying for October reputation over this season's results. Milwaukee won a franchise-record 103 games, led the NL in runs, won the season series 4-3, and took three of four at Dodger Stadium in August. Brewers righty Logan Henderson (11-3, 2.47 ERA) was the star of that series, holding the Dodgers to one run on three hits over seven innings, and Milwaukee won 14 of his 18 regular-season starts.

The Bet: Brewers (3%).