Brandon Lee

40* (MLB) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Under 7.5) 

I will roll the dice with the UNDER 7.5 in Monday's game between the Rays and Royals. Tampa Bay will send out Josh Fleming for his second start and he was impressive in his first outing, giving up just 1 run on 4 hits in 5 innings. Keep in mind Fleming pitched extremely well for the Rays in limited action last year. 

Danny Duffy will take the mound for the Royals and he's been outstanding to start 2021. Duffy has allowed just 1 run in 12 innings over his first 2 starts. Duffy has also owned Tampa Bay, posting a 2.68 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in 6 career starts against the Rays. 

Lastly, the conditions aren't expected to be ideal for scoring. Temp's are expected to be in the low 50s high 40s with close to a 15 mph wind blowing straight in from left field. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

FREE PICK - San Francisco Giants -109
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 953

I will take my chances with the Giants as a slim -109 road favorite against the Phillies. While San Francisco just dropped 2 of 3 at Miami, they are 7-3 in their last 10 games. Philadelphia is a mere 4-7 after their 4-0 start to the season. 

Most importantly, I see a big edge on the mound for the Giants in this one. San Francisco will send out Kevin Gausman, who despite a 0-0 record has a strong 3.20 ERA and 0.763 WHIP in 3 starts. His only poor outing coming against a good Reds lineup. In two road starts prior, he had allowed just 2 runs on 6 hits in 13 2/3 innings of work at Seattle and San Diego. 

Phillies will counter with Chase Anderson, who is 0-1 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in his first 2 starts. Thing is, it could have gone a lot worse for Anderson in those two outings. He's only struck out 6 in 9 innings and has walked 5 and allowed 2 HRs. Both of those starts also came against a Mets offense that has really struggled to start to the season. Give me the Giants -109! 

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40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 225.5) 

I really like the UNDER at 225.5 in Monday's big NBA matchup between the Warriors and 76ers. The spread for this game looked way off with the 76ers sitting as a 9-point favorite, but now that we see Steph Curry listed as questionable it makes more sense. The line tells me that Curry isn't likely to play. 

Even if he does, I think the 76ers will come to play, as Curry and Embiid are two of the top choices right now for MVP. I also think the scoring in this game could be hindered by the fact that Philadelphia has two key guys listed as questionable with Seth Curry and Tobias Harris. Those are two big losses, as both are shooting over 40% from 3. 

Neither Curry played in the first meeting between these two and that game ended with a mere 206 points. Give me the UNDER 225.5! 

50* (NBA) - Monday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Spurs -1) 

I really like the Spurs as a 1-point road favorite against the Pacers. This line opened at Indiana -2.5 and completely flipped to San Antonio. No way the public is rushing to back the Spurs as a small road dog. That tells me there's either a lot of sharp money on the Spurs. 

There's definitely reason to like San Antonio here, as they will have a big advantage in terms of rest with the Pacers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after playing 3 straight on the road. Spurs are also coming in off a 111-85 win at Phoenix as a 12-point dog. Pacers are also lost defensively right now, as they are allowing 124.6 ppg over their last 5. Give me the Spurs -1! 

40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8) 

We cashed the UNDER 7.5 in Game 1 of this series on Monday and I see more of the same value with the UNDER 8 in Game 2. I know the numbers aren't great for today's two starters Rich Hill and Brad Keller, but it's just a matter of time before Hill gets on track and Keller is coming off a great start at home against the Angels, where he allowed just 1 run on 4 hits in 5 2/3 innings. 

The even bigger factor here is the weather. While we won't have 15 mph winds blowing straight in from left like we did yesterday, it won't be blowing out tonight and the temps are expected to start in the high 40s and end in the low 40s. It's just far from ideal conditions for scoring runs. Give me the UNDER 8! 

40* (MLB) - Smart Money VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Phillies -148) 

We played and won with the Giants in Monday's series opener and now we fire back in Game 2 with the Phillies. Big reason I played SF yesterday was starter Kevin Gausman. This time it's Philadelphia who has the edge on the mound with Zach Wheeler going up against Logan Webb. 

Wheeler has had to grind it out in his last two starts on the road, but I think that has him a bit undervalued here at home. He went 7 scoreless in his only home start of 2021 and struckout 10 in the process. He should have no problem keeping this Giants offense in check. 

As for Webb, he's got a 5.23 ERA and 1.936 WHIP in his first 2 starts. He's also faced the Rockies at home and the Mariners on the road. I could see him really struggling here to keep pace with Wheeler. Give me the Phillies -148!