Brandon Lee

PICK - Tulsa Golden Hurricane -17.5 
RATING: 30* 
ROT#: 108

I've been watching this Tulsa team closely. I played against them and lost badly in their opener against Oklahoma State. They ended up losing 17-6 (+23.5).Could have easily won outright.

In their next game @ UCF they won 34-26 as a 20.5-point dog. I was mad I didn't take them against the Knights, but fired with a 50* Top Play in last week's 42-13 win @ USF as a mere 12.5-point favorite. 

Tulsa isn't just 3-0, they have covered the spread in those 3 games by an average of 19.8 ppg. Covered all 3 by at least 14.5-points. While I think the books are getting closer, I still think the number here is too short. 

I think it's worth noting that ECU was a 28-point home dog to UCF. Tulsa proved they were better, ast least equal to UCF when they played on the field. Factor in ECU is on the road instead of at home and I feel this should be at least past 3 TD's. 

I believe even though the results speak volumes to how good this Tulsa team is, people can't get over their defense being any good with only 4 starters backs. They lost 6 of their top 10 tacklers and what many considered their best DL, LB & DB. 

I think it's a combination of some guys taking big steps forward (Zaven Collins, LB has been outstanding and he's not even their No. 1 tackler). I also give a lot of props to second-year defensive coordinator Joseph Gillespie. 

He was the LB coach for 4 years prior to get promoted to DC in 2019. He played a huge role in 2018 (year before he got the job) in installing the Golden Hurricane's 3-3-5 defense that we see today. 

This defense is similar to what ISU has used slowing down all those pass-happy teams in the Big 12. I got a feeling, much like we saw with the spread offense, this defensive scheme is going to eventually be the defense everyone runs. 

ECU has a good QB in Holton Ahlers, but I see him struggling. Tulsa did give up 330 passing yards to UCF, but that was against a special QB in Dillon Gabriel. What people overlook is that was by far his worst game. Gabriel has thrown for 400+ in every other game. He also only completed 55% vs Tulsa (65%+ in the other 4). 

On the flip side of this, Tulsa's offense got some good mojo going after piling it on a bad USF defense last week. They should continue to feast against an awful ECU defense. Pirates are giving up 4.9 yards/carry, 8.3 yards/attempt and 6.3 yards/play. Give me Tulsa -17.5! 

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50* HAWAII/WYOMING MWC *PLAY OF THE MONTH* (Wyoming +2) 

I love the value here with Wyoming as a home dog against Hawaii on Friday. I believe Hawaii is overvalued coming off a 34-19 upset win over Fresno State. At the same time, I think the Cowboys are undervalued off a 34-37 OT loss at Nevada as a 2.5-point favorite. 

There's no shame losing at Nevada. That's one of the most improved teams in the MWC. Wolf Pack probably should have been favored in that one. What I like about Wyoming is they were outplayed and yet still made a game of it. 

This is a very well coached Cowboys team under Craig Bohl and are one of the most experienced teams not just in the conference, but the entire country. When this team is playing well, they are tough to beat at home. Last three times they have finished the season with a winning record they have gone 17-3 at home with a perfect 6-0 mark last year. 

As for Hawaii, I think they are a quality team, but I also feel like they beat up on a bad Fresno State team. Bulldogs also made it easy on them with 4 turnovers (Hawaii +3 turnover margin). Warriors haven't had a winning road record since 2010. I just don't see them pulling off back-to-back road wins. Give me the Cowboys +2! 

40* MINNESOTA/MARYLAND NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Minnesota -19.5) 

I went against Minnesota last week and won easy with Michigan -3, as the Wolverines laid it on the Gophers 49-24. A lot of people liked Minnesota to in that game. I believe seeing them lose like that will have some hesitant to lay this big number. Which is saying something given how bad Maryland looked last week in a 43-3 loss at Northwestern. 

My opinion really didn't change on Minnesota. They are good team with some decent talent, but they were not as good as their 11-3 record last year and it simply had them overvalued against a better team. 

I think the Gophers respond in a big way against the Terps. Minnesota destroyed Maryland 52-10 last year. I would be shocked if they didn't score 40+ in this one. Maryland's defense is clearly lacking talent in the front 7. They let Northwestern rush for 325 yards with 6 different players recording a rush of 10+ yards. 

Their offense wasn't any better. Tua's younger brother Taulia Tagovailoa went 14 of 25 for 94 yards with 0 TDs and 3 INTs. Maryland also rushed for a mere 64 yards on 21 attempts. This Minnesota defense isn't as good as Northwestern's stop unit, but it's still going to be able to get off the field. 

I just don't think it's asking a lot here for Minnesota to win by 20 or more points. Give me the Gophers -19.5! 

40* LSU/AUBURN NCAAF CASH COW (Over 64.5) 

I just feel that LSU is one of the best OVER teams in the country. I think all the guys LSU lost on offense, if you had to guess coming into the year if it would be the offense or defense that was holding this team back, everyone would have said the offense. 

That's just not the case. LSU is averaging 42.0 ppg, 486 yards/game and averaging 6.6 yards/play. It's no where close to as good as last year with Burrow, but it's still one of the best units in the country. 

They just scored 52 against South Carolina last week without their starting quarterback Myles Brennan. He's unlikely to play, but no big deal. TJ Finley completed 17 of 21 attempts for 265 yards and 2 scores (12.6 avg) against the Gamecocks. 

Key here is LSU has to score a bunch, because their defense isn't very good. Not a real shocker given that Bo Pelini is their defensive coordinator. Just look at what they gave up to Mississippi State and what that Bulldogs offense has done in their 3 games since. 

Even an average Auburn offense is going to find success against this defense, especially on their home turf. I think both teams easily hit the 30-point mark in this one. Give me the OVER 64.5!

40* NORTHWESTERN/IOWA NCAAF ANNIHILATOR (Northwestern +120)

40* OLE MISS/VANDY NCAAF SLAUGHTER (Ole Miss -16.5) 

One of our few losers last week in college football was a really tough break on Ole Miss +3.5 at home against Auburn. Rebels gave up a 58-yard TD pass with 1:11 left to play leading 28-27. If they don't give up the big play, worst case Auburn goes down and wins on a field goal 30-27. 

Those ones always sting a little more, but it's not enough to keep me from firing back with Ole Miss this week at Vanderbilt. I just don't feel like the number here is near enough. Vanderbilt played a surprisingly close game at Texas A&M in their opener, losing 17-12 as a 31.5-point favorite. 

They still only had 250 yards of total offense in that game. After scoring just 7 in each of their next two games, the Commodores have a whopping 26 total points scored in 3 games. They are averaging 3.9 yards/play and that's against teams that give up 6.4 yards/play. The fact that they could only score 7 points and total just 266 yards against LSU at home, tells you everything you need to know about how bad this offense is. 

The defense that was so good against Texas A&M, has given up 41 to both LSU and South Carolina. Ole Miss can score points and are going to be hungry having lost 3 straight. I just don't see Vanderbilt doing anywhere close to enough offensively to keep this respectable. Give me Ole Miss -16.5! 

50* INDIANA/RUTGERS NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Indiana -11) 

I will gladly lay less than two touchdowns with Indiana against the Scarlet Knights. I think a lot of people are going to look at this and be tempted to take Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights did just win 38-27 as a double-digit dog at Michigan State last week. They also see this is a big letdown spot for the Hoosiers. 

I see it the opposite. I think this is the ultimate sell high on Rutgers off a win against a Michigan State program that is in a full on rebuilding mode and just might be the worst team in the conference. 

I also think because Rutgers just won, that actually makes Indiana less likely to overlook them. Keep in mind this is an Indiana team that believes they can shock the world and win the Big Ten this year. I'm not saying they are right, but they know if they want to be that team, they got to beat bad teams like Rutgers. 

Because it had been so long for Rutgers just winning a game in Big Ten play, I think people ignore the numbers. The Scarlet Knights only had 276 total yards against a Spartans defense that only had 3 starters back. They were outgained by almost 100 yards and benefited a ton from 7 Michigan State turnovers. 

I know the boxscore wasn't great for Indiana in their win over Penn State, but I still think that's a really really good Nittany Lions team. The fact that they didn't put up big numbers and were able to win, speaks to the potential of this team. 

I know Rutgers is improved, but so is Indiana and the Hoosiers beat the Scarlet Knights 35-0 last year with a 557 to 75 edge in total yards. Give me Indiana -11! 

40* VA TECH/LOUISVILLE NCAAF MASSACRE (Over 66) 

I don't see a whole lot of defense being played in this one, as both of these offenses should have their way. 

Prior to scoring just 16-points at Wake Forest last week, Va Tech had scored 38 or more in each of their first 4 with 3 going for 40 or more. They still had nearly 450 total yards in that game. They had 210 rushing yards, which was their lowest output all year. They are averaging 292 rushing yards/game and 6.5 yards/carry. 

Louisville's defense has played better the last two games, but in both of those games they gave up over 230 rushing yards. Also two weeks ago the game against Notre Dame they were aided big time by strong winds and FSU isn't that great and were primed for a letdown off that big win over UNC. This is still the same defense that gave up 46 to Georgia Tech and 47 to Miami.  

As for Virginia Tech's defense, they are giving up 441 yards/game and 6.1 yards/play. I know they have got some guys back that were out with Covid, but it's still not a great unit. Louisville's got a big time talent at QB in Cunningham and a couple of really good skill players. They also just had their best offensive game of the year last week, so they are trending in the right direction. Give me the OVER 66! 

50* TCU/BAYLOR NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (TCU -2.5) 

I have a feeling I'm going to be betting against Baylor a lot this year. I played against them last week with Texas and the Longhorns won 27-16 as a 8.5-point favorite (wasn't that close). In their previous game I played against them with West Virginia as a 3-point home dog and the Mountaineers won 27-21. 

I'll gladly lay less than a field goal with TCU on the road against the Bears this week. Baylor has one of the most anemic offenses of any Power 5 program. The only reason they are averaging 28.0 ppg instead of 18.0 ppg is because they have already played Kansas. 

They only had 256 total yards in their game against West Virginia and 316 last week against Texas. In both of those games they went into the 4th quarter with 7 or fewer points. 

TCU comes into this one having just got the doors kicked in by Oklahoma at home, losing 33-14 as a mere 7-point dog. Horned Frogs are now just 1-3 on the season, but could easily be 3-1. I think if Duggan plays the entire game and not just the 2nd half, they probably beat ISU at home and the loss against K-State could have also went their way. Outgained the Wildcats 342 to 289 with 20 first downs to 12. 

I just think this TCU team is so much better than their record and should be close to a TD favorite than a field goal. Give me the Horned Frogs -2.5! 

40* TEXAS/OKLAHOMA ST NCAAF STEAMROLLER (OVER 57.5) 

I think there's a good chance we see 60 or more points in this one. Oklahoma State's offensive numbers are greatly skewed because of how much time starting QB Spencer Sanders has missed. He only played a few snaps in the opener against Tulsa and just returned last week against ISU. 

While he threw 2 picks, he did complete 20 of 29 attempts for 295 and that's a really good Cyclones defense. Texas does not have a good defense. The Longhorns are giving up 32.2 ppg and that's with them only giving up 3 to UTEP and 16 last week to an awful Baylor offense. They allowed 56 at Texas Tech, 33 at home to TCU and 53 to Oklahoma. It would be a shock here if Texas didn't give up at least 30. 

I also think there's a good chance Texas can score 30 or more. Oklahoma State's defense is only giving up 12.0 ppg, which is great, but a lot of that is schedule. Their first 4 were against Tulsa, W Virginia, Kansas and ISU. By far the best offense they faced so far is the Cyclones and ISU had over 100 yards more than what OK-State had been allowing. Now they face an even better Texas offense. Give me the OVER 57.5! 

40* KANSAS ST/W VIRGINIA NCAAF NO-BRAINER (W Virginia -2.5) 

This is one of those plays you just play no matter what. Any time you have a ranked team getting points against an unranked opponent, you play the unranked team. I'll do just that with the Mountaineers at home against No. 16 Kansas State. 

I played against West Virginia last week at Texas Tech, as I didn't feel they should be laying points on the road against a pretty equal opponent. We cashed a winner with the Red Raiders, but it just as easily could have gone the other way. WV ended up outgaining Texas Tech 438 to 348. Even though they lost, I came away impressed with the Mountaineers. 

West Virginia has really been strong defensively and I think they can make things really difficult here on a pretty limited K-State offense that is down their starting QB in Skylar Thompson. True freshman Will Howard has decent numbers, but half his attempts came against an awful Kansas defense last week. They were pretty lucky to beat TCU with Howard and no way they pull off that upset in Norman without Thompson. Give me West Virginia -2.5!