Brandon Lee

10* FREE MLB PICK (Dodgers -171) 

I'll take my chances here with the Dodgers cashing in a win at home in Game 3 of the NLCS. Los Angeles finally put an end to Milwaukee's winning streak with a 4-3 win in Game 2. The Dodgers now have the homefield edge and I have a hard time seeing them lose at home with Walker Buehler on the mound. Buehler struggled at Atlanta in his only start of the NLDS, but was sensational at home against the Rockies in the tie-breaker game, allowing just 1 hit over 6 2/3 shutout innings. No surprise there, as Buehler owns a 1.34 ERA and 0.760 WHIP over 12 home starts. In his only start against Milwaukee this season (at home) he allowed just 1 run on 5 hits in 7 innings. As for Brewers starter, Jhoulys Chacin, he faced the Dodgers once at LA and gave up 9 runs in just 4 1/3 innings. Give me Los Angeles -171! 

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50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Packers -9) 

I'll take my chances here laying the big number here with Green Bay at home. I don’t love backing big favorites like this, but when it’s Aaron Rodgers against C.J. Beathard, I’m willing to roll the dice, especially when it’s a prime time matchup and the Packers in desperate need of a win.

It’s really a shame that Garoppolo got hurt, as this 49ers team had a ton of upside. While Kyle Shanahan is going to get the most out of what he has to work with, he’s got his hands tied with Beathard. Some times you can turnovers can be fluky, other times it’s just a result of who a team has under center. Beathard has made 2 starts and thrown 4 interceptions and fumbled 3 times (lost 2 of them).

I just don’t see it getting any better for Beathard against a Green Bay defense that is playing better than people realize. The Packers are 4th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 313.8 ypg. Their strength has been their secondary, which is 2nd in the NFL, allowing just 208.8 ypg.

With the 49ers expected to be without their most explosive back in Matt Breida (averaging 7.5 yards/carry) and three starters on the offensive line questionable to play, San Francisco’s only hope of moving the ball is via the passing game. That’s a problem, as Green Bay is going to be able to unleash their pass rush (49ers allowed 18 sacks) and sit back in coverage and wait for Beathard to make a mistake.

It’s also worth pointing out that Rodgers and the Packers have been a good bet when laying a big number. Green Bay has been a favorite of 6 to 13 points 28 times with Rodgers at quarterback and are 20-8 ATS in those games. Green Bay is also 24-11 ATS in their last 35 at home and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Give me the Packers -9!