Brandon Lee

Sunday's NFL Free Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -6

I think this is the week to jump on the Bengals as a 6-point road favorite against the Jets. I played against Cincinnati in Week 1. I should have done the same in Week 2 at Dallas. This team was being way overpriced coming off last year's Super Bowl appearance. 

Thing is they should be 2-0 and I just don't see them leaving any doubt in this one trying to avoid the 0-3 start. The great news for them is they play a bad Jets team. One that is getting a lot of attention for their crazy 31-30 come from behind win over the Browns last week. 

The Jets had no business winning that game. Cleveland could have not scored and fell down at the 1 an ran the clock out. The Browns also missed an extra point while scoring that late TD to up 31-17. They then somehow aren't in prevent and give up a 66-yard TD pass, failed to recover an onside kick and gave up another TD in a span of like 90 seconds. 

I think it's created a great spot to fade the Jets, who I think will be a little flat off that crazy win. The biggest thing I think that gets overlooked with New York is that they have trailed 24-3 and 31-17 with less than 2 minutes to play in the 4th quarter in their two games. 

I also think it's a much easier matchup for the Cincinnati offense. Clearly the offensive line, mainly pass protection, is still a problem. Didn't help matters their first two games were against maybe the two best pass rushers in TJ Watt and Micah Parsons. Jets don't have an elite edge rusher. They got just 3 sacks in 2 games. 

With all that said, I think the Bengals could have a "B-" type of performance and still win this game by 7 or more points. I think we are going to get their "A" game after the 0-2 start. Give me the Bengals -6! 

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10* NFL Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH: Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5

I love the Jaguars as a 7.5-point road dog against the Chargers. If 7 is all your books is offering, I think it's worth paying a little more to get it to 7.5. I just feel like Los Angeles is getting way too much respect from the books in this game. 

There's not even a guarantee that Justin Herbert is going to play. I know he finished the game against KC, but it was pretty obvious the amount of pain he was in. I don't think even the extra few days they got after playing Thursday is near enough for him to be close to 100% in this game. 

If he guts it out, you got to think the game plan will be skewed more to the run than it normally is. There's also no guarantee he finishes the game. He takes one good shot to that rib area and he's going to be right back where he started. I really think it's 50/50 if he even plays and it's a massive downgrade from him to backup Chase Daniel. 

You also got to look at the status of the Chargers offensive line. Right tackle Trey Pipkins was limited in Wednesday's practice and center Corey Linsley didn't practice. We saw this offensive line really regress in that game against KC. Chiefs were getting all kinds of pressure in the 2nd half. This unit will be up against an underrated Jags defensive line that has a top tier pass rusher in Josh Allen. 

I also think you got to look at what have seen from Jacksonville in their first two games. They should be 2-0. They blew a 22-14 lead with less than 10 minutes to play in a 22-28 loss to Washington in Week 1 and embarrassed the Colts 24-0 last week. All anyone wants to talk about is how bad Indy is after that loss. No one wants to give this team any credit. I like teams who are playing well and go into a game feeling like they are being disrespected. I not only think they can keep it close enough to cover, but I give them a legit shot here of winning this game outright. Give me the Jaguars +7.5! 

9* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Falcons/Seahawks OVER 42

I'm going to take the OVER 42 in Sunday's game between the Falcons and Seahawks. I came into the season with very low expectations for Seattle's defense. So far it's worse than I thought.

Them holding the Broncos to just 16 points in their upset win in Week 1 was a complete fluke. Denver racked up 433 total yards and averaged 6.8 yards/play with 20 1st downs and a 53% conversion rate on 3rd downs. The Broncos had back-to-back drives to start the 2nd half where they fumbled the ball on the Seahawks 1-yard line. They also had at least 30 yards on every possession, punting just once. 

Then in their game against the 49ers they gave up 373 yards and 25 first downs, allowing San Francisco to convert 6 of 15 first downs. Keep in mind they also had no real incentive to score in the 2nd half with a big lead and this is already a team that wants to take the air out of the ball with the run game. 

I don't see them slowing down the Falcons in this game. Atlanta may be 0-2, but I've really liked what I've seen out of this team offensively. Marcus Mariota looks like he belongs on the field. The Falcons come into this game averaging 26.5 ppg, 146 rushing yards/game and 338 yards/game having played two of the better defensive teams in the league in the Saints and Rams. 

The other key for me is I think the Seattle offense is better than the perception right now. They too have played their first two games against two of the top defensive teams. Say what you want about Russell Wilson and the Denver offense, the Broncos defense looks like the real deal and I would put San Francisco up their with the Bills and Chargers for the best defense in the league. 

I think Geno Smith and that offense will be able to generate some offense. They got no choice here but to try and go score for score with the other team and the Falcons are a definitely a defense they can have success against. Atlanta is giving up 29.0 ppg and 6.3 yards/play vs teams who on average are scoring 19.5 ppg and averaging 5.4 yards/play. Just looks at what they gave up to the Saints and Rams and how those two teams looked offensively in their other game. 

I'm really shocked this total is as low as it is, as I think this will easily get into the 50s. Give me the OVER 42! 

8* NFL Smart Money ATS MASSACRE: Green Bay Packers +1

I'm betting the Packers as a 1-point dog against the Bucs in Week 3. I just think given the current state of the Tampa Bay offense, there's too much value here with Green Bay at basically a pick'em.

Who knows what Tom Brady is going to have to work with at wide receiver in this game. We know for sure he won't have Mike Evans, who is suspended for this game. Their next 5 WR's on the depth chart are Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, Russell Gage, Breshad Perriman and Scotty Miller. All 5 of them are questionable. 

They have also ready lost starting center Ryan Jensen to a season-ending injury from a unit that was down after losing two starters from last year in Cappa and Marpet. Starting left tackle Donovan Smith is questionable and his backup Josh Wells is on IR. 

The offense wasn't sharp in their opener against the Cowboys. They had just 12 points in that game with less than 5 minutes to play. They scored just 20 against the Saints last week. That game was 3-3 going into the 4th and 7 of their 20 came on a 68-yard pick-six. 

Packers offense wasn't very good in Week 1, but the defense played pretty well against a good Vikings offense. Green Bay then held the Bears to just 228 and 11 first downs in Week 2. As good as Brady is, it's going to be really hard for TB to keep their offense on the field and finish off drives with TDs. 

I also think there's some value still with Green Bay due to their ugly showing in Week 1 against the Vikings. It's just what this team does. They did it last year. They lost 38-3 to the Saints and then won 7 in a row. Rodgers and the offense looked much better in Week 2 and will only get better. He is facing a top tier Tampa Bay defense, but he's one of the few QBs where it just doesn't matter how good the defense is, he's going to get his. Give me the Packers +1! 

8* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Oakland Raiders -2

Even after all the pain the Raiders caused me last Sunday when they somehow managed to fail to cover as a 5.5-point favorite after leading 23-7 going into the 4th quarter, I'm backing them again this week. I'll lay the 2-points with Las Vegas on the road against the Titans. 

I know both teams are 0-2 and are going to feel like this is a must-win. I just don't think Tennessee is any good. The Raiders in my eyes are by far the better team. My money is on them to find a way to avoid the 0-3 start. 

Tennessee is so far removed from the team that was the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year. Not that they were anything close to the best team in that conference in 2021. They traded away their only real threat in the passing game in A.J. Brown and didn't improve the defense. Derrick Henry hasn't even remotely resembled the back that from two years ago. I also think Ryan Tannehill is regressing with having to shoulder more of the load.

They are just not a good football team. They lost a game they shouldn't have in Week 1 to a average at best Jets team and didn't even look like they belonged on the same field as Buffalo. 

I don't see the Titans defense being able to get off the field and I think the Raiders front 7 is good enough to not allow Henry to get going and make it really hard on Tennessee to move the ball. Give me the Raiders -2! 

9* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Bills/Dolphins OVER 52

I really like the OVER 52 in Sunday's big showdown between AFC East rivals Buffalo and Miami. I know these are two division rivals and division games have a tendency to be lower scoring. I don't care. I just think the Bills are so good offensively that there's too much value at this number to not play the OVER. 

There's just no stopping this Buffalo offense with the way they are currently constructed and the level at which Josh Allen is playing the quarterback position. They had 31 points in their opener against the Rams and turned the ball over 4 times. They didn't punt once in the entire game against LA and not once in the 1st half against the Titans. Miami just gave up 473 yards and 38 points to the Ravens last week, letting Lamar Jackson throw for 318 yards and 3 scores on 21 of 29 passing. 

The big key here is I think Miami has the offensive fire-power, especially in the passing game, to go score for score with Buffalo. Even more so with the injuries that the Bills are dealing with both on the defensive line and in their secondary. Three of their top 4 defensive tackles are questionable. They are down two starting corners Tre-Davious White and Dane Jackson and both safeties, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are not 100%. 

I think if we get a mere 3 TDs from Miami, this thing is going to fly past the number. Give me the OVER 52! 

10* NFL Vegas Insider TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Chiefs/Colts OVER 50

I love the OVER 50 in Sunday's Week 3 NFL matchup between the Chiefs and Colts. I'm actually shocked this number is as low as it is. I know it was the defense that stepped up and really carried KC to a victory last week in their big game against the Chargers, but there might not be a better top to bottom defensive unit in the NFL than what LA has on the field. 

Mahomes was still able to complete 24 of 35 attempts for 235 yards and 2 TDs. Good but not great numbers. I expect the offense to resemble more of what we saw in their 44-21 win over the Cardinals in Week 1. A game in which they had 488 total yard with Mahomes throwing for 360 and 5 scores. 

Especially after watching how poorly the Colts looked in last week's 24-0 loss to the Jaguars. They let Trevor Lawrence complete 25 of 30 attempts. They are going to have no answer for this Chiefs offense. 

The key here is I do think the Colts will be able to at least score enough here to make it somewhat competitive. Getting shutout by the Jags is bad, but the Colts were very thin in that game at receiver. They are getting guys back at that spot and will be facing a Chiefs defense that could be a little flat after that huge game against the Charger and Tom Brady and the Bucs looming next week. KC also lost one of their better defensive players in linebacker Willie Gay to a 4-game suspension. I'm seeing like a 38-28 type of game here with the potential for even more scoring. Give me the OVER 50! 

8* NFL Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER: New England Patriots +3

I will gladly take the 3-points with the Patriots as a home dog against the Ravens. Any time you got a Bill Belichick coached team getting points, you really don't have to do any more research. You just bet New England. The Patriots are 14-5 ATS as a home dog since Belichick took over.

It's also worth noting that the Pats had to play their first two games on the road, which probably has them undervalued given their home field edge. It's definitely been a profitable spot long term, as the Pats are 30-17 (64%) ATS under Belichick after playing their last two games on the road. 

Baltimore is also a team that I think is getting too much respect in this spot. Most will just chalk it up as a fluke that the Ravens blew that 35-14 lead in the 4th quarter against the Dolphins last week. Not me. I think Baltimore isn't quite as good defensively as what we expected them to be.

You also have a banged up Lamar Jackson, who is dealing with an injury to his throwing elbow. He says he's going to play, but it's bothering him enough he wasn't throwing at all in practice. You got to wonder if he will be as willing to run the ball with that banged up elbow. On top of that, Belichick is going to do everything he can to keep him from making plays with his feet. He's going to make Jackson beat him with his arm. I don't know that he can against this Patriots defense. 

No one is going to praise them for how the defense looked in last week's win over the Steelers, but I don't think they are getting enough credit for what their defense did against the Dolphins in Week 1. They held Miami to just 20 points on 307 yards. Dolphins had 42 points and 547 yards against the Ravens. Give me the Patriots +3!