Matt Fargo

This is a play on the GRAND CANYON LOPES for our Saturday Free Play. This is the first of two games in the Jerry Colangelo Classic taking place from Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix. Oklahoma St. is off to an 8-0 start, its best start since 2006-07, which is nearly halfway to its 17-win total from all of last season. The Cowboys have played seven of their eight games at home with the other game taking place in Chicago so while not a true road game, this is as close to one so far. They play at the fourth highest pace in the country and have scored at least 85 points in every game but now have a tough matchup. Grand Canyon is off to a disappointing 5-3 start but in a good spot here with a semi-home game in Phoenix. The last two losses came against St. Louis on the road and against Iowa in Palm Springs and those two teams are ranked higher than the Cowboys. The defense will be the story here as the Lopes have held three consecutive opponents to at least 25 points below its scoring average and they will take the Cowboys out of their game. Play (702) Grand Canyon Lopes

3-1 Friday. CBB 58-40 Run and the red hot run extended Saturday with NINE Winners. CFB 10-4 run. 2-0 Friday. THREE Championship Winners Saturday. After Lions Win, Matt is on a 230-193-9 NFL Run. FIVE Sunday winners.

This is a play on the MIAMI HEAT for our NBA Signature Enforcer Winner. Miami is coming off a one point loss at Orlando last night, its second straight loss and third defeat in four games following a six-game winning streak. The Heat are now 14-9 overall and their seven losses against the top 10 are the most of any team ranked in the top 17 in the league but take those top ten games away and they are 11-2 against the rest of the league. Sacramento is struggling big time as it last lost four straight games and is 2-12 in its last 14 games while covering only three of those games. To their credit, they have played the toughest schedule in the league but that does little good when they are getting blown out most of the time, getting outscored by 11.8 ppg including 11.6 ppg on the road. Here, we play on teams off a road loss against a division rival, when playing their 3rd game in four nights. This situation is 92-59 (60.9 percent) since 2022. 10* (544) Miami Heat

This is a play on the NEW MEXICO LOBOS for our CBB False Favorite. New Mexico won the Mountain West Conference last season with a 17-3 record and while it is expected to take a small step back, they are still at The Pit for a third straight game following a tricky travel schedule. The Lobos opened with three home wins and then traveled to rival New Mexico St. and lost before having to play a pair of games in Kansas City where it lost to Nebraska and defeated Mississippi St. This line is filled with value based on the start for Santa Clara as it is 8-1 with its lone loss coming against St. Louis by one point in Palm Springs. The Broncos are a legit team once again and this is just their second true road game with the first being a win at Xavier which is not a good team and that was back on November 10 when the Musketeers were really not good. False favorite here. 10* (730) New Mexico Lobos

This is a play on the EASTERN ILLINOIS PANTHERS for our CBB Signature Enforcer. This is a play on the EASTERN ILLINOIS PANTHERS for our CBB Signature Enforcer. Eastern Illinois has been off since November 28 after getting steamrolled at Purdue by 47 points which put the Panthers at 0-5 on the road with three other losses coming against Valparaiso, Kentucky and Notre Dame and while a 21-point loss at Central Arkansas was not good, it was right before that Purdue lookahead. Eastern Illinois is back home where it is 2-0 and hosting the Ohio Valley Conference opener and catching points based on the record and not the fact they have played a No. 11 ranked schedule. Lindenwood has won two straight games following a 35-point win at Northern Illinois on Tuesday and now the Lions are back in Illinois as a road favorite and while three of their four road losses have been against Texas Tech, St. Louis and Indiana, the fourth was against Alabama A&M, rated No. 261. 10* (716) Eastern Illinois Panthers

This is a play on the NORTHERN IOWA PANTHERS for our CBB Supreme Annihilator. The Shockers are 5-4 as they are a perfect 5-0 at home and 0-4 outside of Wichita which includes a loss at Boise St. in their only true road game. They are coming off a disappointing 19-15 season including 8-10 in the American Athletic Association and it has now been five straight non-20-win seasons after winning 20 or more games in 11 straight seasons prior to that. This is a brand new roster which is one that has not surprisingly struggled away from their home floor and we are getting value here because the four losses have been by a n average of 4.8 ppg. Now that Drake and Bradley have taken a step back, it is time for Northern Iowa to get back into the Missouri Valley Conference mix and the Panthers are off to a 7-1 start including 5-0 at home and playing with revenge from a loss in Wichita last year. 10* (712) Northern Iowa Panthers

This is a play on the MILWAUKEE PANTHERS for our Horizon Game of the Month. Robert Morris has won four straight games including an 80-78 victory over Green Bay on Thursday as the Colonials closed the game on an 18-5 run to pull off the improbable upset. A situation like that can cause a letdown no matter who the opponent and it makes it even tougher in the second of back-to-back road games with only one game in-between. We have played on Robert Morris twice against Drake and Illinois-Chicago and both won but those were both off losses. Milwaukee is playing its Horizon League opener as it was the odd team out opening night because of the 11-team conference and it is an advantage with no quick turnover as its last game was on November 29 against Akron, a 24-point road loss. The Panthers are back home where they are 3-0with this being just their second home game in 26 days. 10* (706) Milwaukee Panthers

This is a play on the COLORADO ST. RAMS for our CBB Revenge Rout. Colorado is off to an 8-0 start but we saw something similar last season when the Buffaloes started out 9-2 and then bottomed out. They are coming off an eight-point home win over Cal Baptist and for comparison, the Lancers lost to BYU by 31 points two nights later so that recent win was not overly impressive. Now the Buffaloes hit the highway for their first true road game and it happens to be a pissed off rival. Colorado St. won two of three games in the Battle 4 Atlantis as it shook off a tough two-point loss against Virginia Tech with a pair of wins over Wichita St. and South Florida. That loss came after a befuddling loss at home against Denver by a bucket as an 18.5-point favorite so the Rams want to make up for that as well as avenging a 17-point loss in Boulder almost a year to the day from last season. 10* (680) Colorado St. Rams

This is a play on the KANSAS ST. WILDCATS for our CBB Star Attraction. Seton Hall is off to a surprising 8-1 start although it may not be that surprising considering the Pirates have played the No 351 ranked schedule. It still could be surprising considering they won seven games all of last season although the nonconference schedule was slightly more demanding. Seton Hall went 2-1 in Hawaii at the Maui Invitational then had a week off before defeating Central Connecticut St. at home and now it is back on the highway for its first true road game of the season and this is not a good spot for that to happen. Kansas St. is off to a disappointing 5-3 start as it opened 5-0 but then lost to Nebraska in Kansas City by one point before losing at Indiana by 17 points. The real bad loss was this past Monday as they lost at home to Bowling Green by 16 points so there has been plenty of time to stew. 10* (654) Kansas St. Wildcats

This is a play on the LOUISIANA RAGIN’ CAJUNS for our CBB Ultimate Underdog. Last season was a major disappointment for Louisiana as it finished with only 12 wins and it has been a rough start for first year head coach Quannas White as the Cajuns are off to a 1-8 start which includes seven straight losses. They are on a 0-5-1 ATS run with that push coming in the last game at Lamar which was their fifth road contest in their last six games and they will be out to bounce back from a home loss against Jackson St. in their lone stop here since November 11. UNC Wilmington is on the opposite run as it has won seven straight games following a win at home against Marshall on Wednesday as the Seahawks overcame a seven-point deficit with 1:29 remaining to pull out the miracle. They had a 29-9 edge from the free throw line which was the obvious difference and this is the sell high spot. 10* (650) Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns

This is a play on the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES for our CBB Contrarian Crusher. George Mason is off to a 9-0 start following an 18-point win over Cornell and the Patriots have moved to No. 40 in the NET Rankings. It has been a very easy schedule as they have played the No. 335 ranked slate which has falsely inflated most of their metrics numbers. George Mason played a couple games in Daytona Beach against Ohio and Florida Atlantic and this marks their first true road game of the season. Adding to the value is the fact the Patriots are 5-0 ATS which is in the auto fade zone. Virginia Tech is coming off an overtime win at South Carolina which snapped a two-game losing streak and that SEC win over the Gamecocks could spell a letdown but not in this case based on facing an undefeated opponent and having Western Carolina on deck, there is no chance of a lookahead so there will be full focus here. 10* (644) Virginia Tech Hokies

This is a play on the BOWLING GREEN FALCONS for our CBB Afternoon Dominator. Bowling Green has won three straight games to move to 6-2 overall and the Falcons are coming off a huge upset at Kansas St. by 16 points as a 12-point underdog. Many will anticipate a letdown but after the injury riddled season a year ago, this team will be fully focused to keep it going and they have a non-Division I game on deck. Javontae Campbell was voted to the preseason All-MAC First team and is making an early case for Player of the Year as he is fourth in scoring at 17.4 ppg and leads the conference in steals at 3.5 spg. Bowling Green sits at No. 62 in the NET Rankings and are undervalued by playing Utah Valley which is No. 84 in the NET. The Wolverines are off a loss at San Diego St. on Wednesday after being in Mexico over Thanksgiving and have to make the big trek with minimal rest and preparation time. 10* (616) Bowling Green Falcons

This is a play on the INDIANA HOOSIERS for our Big 10 Championship Winner. The top two teams in the CFP square off in a meaningless championship game as the loser of this game will not fall out of the top four in the CFP and while a conference championship is a prestigious honor, health is important. It does mean more for the Hoosiers as they have never won one let alone be in one and if not for anything else, they will want to showcase quarterback Fernando Mendoza as Heisman votes are not due until two days after this game. The same can be said for Ohio St. quarterback Julian Sayin but he has fallen into third with Diego Pavia moving ahead of him in the odds. Ohio St. is going to be the huge public play here as all the Buckeyes do is cover as since losing to Michigan last year, they have gone 14-1-1 ATS covering by over a touchdown per game on average so this is our contrarian move. It is the Buckeyes defense that gets all of the accolades and rightfully so as they are No. 4 in EPA and No. 9 in Success Rate but just No. 68 in Havoc. Meanwhile, Indiana is right there and arguably more consistent as the Hoosiers are No. 12 in EPA, No. 14 in Success Rate and No. 12 in Havoc while holding eight opponents to season lows in yardage. The offenses are extremely similar as well the EPA, Success Rate and Havok separated by 6, 1 and 4 spots with both teams sitting in the top 12 in all three categories. Here, we play on neutral field underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win against a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) since 2021 with a scoring differential of +2.2 ppg. 10* (119) Indiana Hoosiers

This is a play on the GEORGIA BULLDOGS for our SEC Championship Winner. Georgia is one of six teams seeking revenge in championship weekend and its loss against Alabama by three points was the only one of the six games that was decided by one possession. The Bulldogs have won eight straight games since suffering that loss at home and only two of those were decided by one possession with both of those being on a neutral field including one in this same stadium last week against Georgia Tech. That will deter some from backing the Bulldogs as they foresee another tight one that could go either way. Additionally, history will decide some minds but the past is the past with different rosters as Georgia has lost 10 of 11 against Alabama since 2007 and is 0-4 against the Crimson Tide at Mercedes-Benz Stadium but seven of the 10 Alabama wins have been by only one possession. Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton threw for just 130 yards in the loss to Alabama but he has improved immensely since then with the exception of the Charlotte game where he was not needed and the Georgia Tech game where the Bulldogs mainly ran the ball. He has thrown for 2,535 yards and 20 touchdowns, while adding 403 yards and eight scores on the ground yet the Bulldogs will likely try and pound it out as Alabama is not good against the run according to the metrics. Starting center Drew Bobo has been ruled out which is a blow but the Bulldogs will get two key weapons back on offense with wide receiver Talyn Taylor, who has been out since the first meeting against Alabama, and running back Chauncey Bowens, who has been out since the Texas game. 10* (115) Georgia Bulldogs

This is a play on the BYU COUGARS for our Big 12 Championship Winner. BYU and Texas Tech are in a rematch for the Big 12 Championship and we are expecting a much closer game this time around. We have to examine the first meeting one month ago and novice bettors will just look at that score and hammer the Red Raiders once again. BYU was getting 13 points at Texas Tech in the first meeting and is now getting the same amount on a neutral field so there is value right away. Sure, the Red Raiders won that first meeting 29-7 but that score does not tell the story as it was BYU that hurt themselves with a -3 turnover margin as the Cougars were outgained by only 113 yards. The defense allowed two touchdown drives and did hold the Red Raiders to five field goals, three of which were because of short fields where the drive totaled two yards. Texas Tech is known for its potent offense by the public but that is a misconception as it is No. 79 in EPA, No. 78 in Success Rate and No. 66 in Havok. It is the defense that has carried this team and BYU had to toss away its gameplan in that first meeting after falling behind early as the Cougars are No. 27 in EPA, No. 20 in Success Rate and No. 34 in Havok. On both sides, it is strength on strength so a clean game means a close game as BYU did not turn the ball over in seven of their games. With this game in Texas, many will think it will be a Texas Tech crowd by a significant amount but that will not be the case as the Cougar faithful travel well. BYU is 6-0 ATS in its last six away or neutral field games coming off a home win and 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. 10* (111) BYU Cougars