Doc’s Sports

2-unit play. Take 705 Winnipeg Blue Bombers +3 (-110) @ Ottawa RedBlacks (Saturday, Sept. 20th, 3:00 p.m. CFL+)

Winnipeg will cover the spread against Ottawa tonight due to their superior ability to exploit Ottawa's defensive weaknesses, particularly on the ground. Despite Ottawa's defensive front showing strength against the run in previous seasons, its current performance has deteriorated significantly, allowing 89.0 rushing yards per game and a league-high 15 rushing touchdowns this season. This presents a perfect matchup for Brady Oliveira and Winnipeg's ground game, especially considering Oliveira's demonstrated ability to gain yards after contact with 891 rushing yards after contact in 2025. The Bombers' defense, currently ranked 5th in the CFL while allowing 27.1 points per game, features linebacker Tony Jones as an anchor with 82 defensive tackles, three sacks, and an interception, giving them the stability needed to contain Ottawa's inconsistent offense that averages just 25.6 points per game. Even with Zach Collaros potentially sidelined, Chris Streveler has proven he can effectively manage Winnipeg's offense, as demonstrated in previous starts where he contributed both through the air and on the ground with rushing touchdowns, making the spread highly achievable for the visitors.

Winnipeg's historical dominance on the road against Ottawa, 5-2 straight-up and against the spread in their last 7 meetings, and their consistent road covering ability, 8-4 ATS in their last 12 road games, directly contradict the market's narrow spread assignment. This trend is catastrophic for Ottawa with their abysmal 5-15 straight-up record over their last 20 games, exposing them as fundamentally flawed despite home-field advantage. The Bombers demonstrated their ability to withstand late Ottawa comebacks just weeks ago in Week 11, holding the RedBlacks out of the end zone through the entire first half and ultimately winning 30-27 on a walk-off field goal. While Dru Brown returns to Ottawa's lineup, Winnipeg's proven resilience in this specific matchup, coupled with Ottawa's systemic collapse, creates an overwhelming case that oddsmakers have severely undervalued the visitors.

2-unit play. Take 309069 Take the UNDER 69.5 in the #11 Villanova @ #21 Monmouth (Saturday, September 19th, 1:00 p.m., ESPN+)

Monmouth's explosive offense leads the FCS with 42 points and 535 yards per game while averaging an impressive 7.1 yards per play. However, these gaudy numbers have been accumulated against exceptionally weak defensive competition. Colgate ranks among the worst in defensive pass efficiency across the FCS, and Fordham isn't much better. Monmouth's only cross-conference game came against Charlotte, a team surrendering 323 passing yards per game and eight touchdowns without recording a single interception. These defensive units pale in comparison to what Villanova will bring to the field. Villanova's offense has struggled mightily, managing just 15 points over its first two games, including a 52-6 shellacking at the hands of No. 2 Penn State. Their lone victory came against Colgate with quarterback Pat McQuaide throwing for 299 yards and a touchdown in a 24-17 win, providing a direct comparison point between the two teams.

This Colonial Athletic Association showdown carries significant playoff implications as the conference champion earns an automatic bid to the FCS tournament. While the lopsided loss to Penn State skews Villanova's defensive statistics, they still represent the most formidable defensive unit Monmouth has encountered this season. The Hawks have feasted on subpar competition but haven't been tested by a defense of Villanova's caliber. Monmouth's offense will face its first legitimate challenge, while Villanova's anemic offense lacks the firepower to exploit any weaknesses in Monmouth's defense. With 15 mph winds forecasted for the Monmouth contest, deep passing attacks and special teams play will be compromised, further tilting the advantage toward Villanova's physical defensive approach. For the Wildcats to pull off the upset, they must rely on disciplined defense rather than attempting to match Monmouth's offensive output in a shootout they're unlikely to win.

6 Unit Play. Take #368 Nebraska Cornhuskers +2.5 over Michigan Wolverines (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 20 Paramount+) TOP NCAA PLAY OF THE WEEKEND Sherrone Moore will be serving the second and final game of his suspension and not attend this game for Michigan. This is another hill Coach Rhule can climb as he builds Nebraska back to relevance in year 3 of his tenure. Really feel Nebraska has the better and more experienced quarterback in this game in Dylan Raiola. Michigan did not play well in their first road game of the season in Oklahoma and expect them to struggle again in a former Big 8 venue in Memorial Stadium. Michigan is 1-4 straight-up in their last 5 road games. Sooner or later Nebraska is going to beat a ranked team and that should happen on Saturday afternoon in Lincoln. The faithful will finally have a reason to cheer after a decade of playing in the abyss. 

2 Unit Play. Take #398 Texas Longhorns over Sam Houston State Bearkats (8p.m., Saturday, September 20 ESPN+) Not too often you find a Texas game only available on streaming but that is the case when they go through the motions against Sam Houston State. There is a Phil Longo sighting in this game, as he was run out of Madtown last year but now is a head coach at a Texas school. Sam Houston State has lost each of their 3 games by exactly 17 points, but Texas is not UNLV, Hawaii or WKY. Arch needs a confidence game where he plays well, and the game is never in doubt. With SEC play on the horizon, this is a game I see Texas winning by 50 points. Texas backups could cover this spread against this team.

2 Unit Play. Take #354 Oklahoma Sooners over Auburn Tigers (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 20 ABC) Auburn had the better team last year in this matchup and were playing at home. They lost to Oklahoma in that game, blowing a double digit fourth quarter lead in that game. The Sooners finally have a strong team on both sides of the football and they just have more ways to beat you compared to the Tigers. Auburn has a brutal schedule on deck and I see them crumbling during this stretch of Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Georgia. Hugh Freeze seems in over his head and I see them struggling in this game losing by double digits.

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #386 Under in Nevada Wolf Pack @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7p.m., Saturday, September 20 ESPN+) We went against Nevada last week for a free pick winner, as Middle Tennessee State +9 beat them straight-up. We will go back to well again on September 20 with a Nevada game, but this time take the under. Nevada has major issues at quarterback, and they have trouble scoring points this season. In their first three games they have scored 11, 17, and 13 points. WKU is a higher scoring team, but I expect Nevada to dictate the pace of this game and keep the scoring low. Take the under in this game. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend card featuring top plays in Football, WNBA, and NASCAR. Sign-up now and let 54 years of handicapping experience work for you.

7 Unit Play. Take #458 Under in Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns (1p.m., Sunday, September 21 FOX) The Packers may be the best team in the league and the Browns may be the worst team in the league. Cleveland has one way to stay in this game and that is a low scoring defensive battle. Look for pride to kick in for the Browns, after they gave up 41 points last week to the Ravens. Green Bay is 2-0 on unders in 2025. The under has hit in 3 of the last 4 meetings between the Packers and Browns.