Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: San Francisco Giants +162

I'll take a shot with the San Francisco Giants as big home underdogs to the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.  They have the rest advantage after having Monday off, while the Dodgers just completed a 4-game series in Colorado Monday night.

I really like what I've seen from San Francisco starter Landen Roupp and he is getting disrespected with this line.  Roupp is 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing just 6 earned runs and 22 base runners with 24 K's in 22 2/3 innings.

Roupp was dominant in his last start against the Dodgers, allowing just one earned run in 6 innings with 8 K's in a 2-1 defeat.  He is backed by a solid San Francisco bullpen that has posted a 3.54 ERA in 73 2/3 innings this season.  Bet the Giants Tuesday.

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20* Rockets/Lakers NBC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 208.5

These are two dead nuts UNDER teams in their current state.  Both teams play at a snail's pace and both rely on defense right now with suspect offense.  That's especially the case for the Lakers without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

The Lakers were able to pull off the 107-98 upset for 205 combined points in Game 1.  They got a nice break with Kevin Durant scratched before the game with a knee injury suffered on Wednesday in practice last week.  Even if Durant returns for Game 2, he won't be anywhere near 100%.

The Lakers shot a ridiculous 60.6% from the field and 52.6% from 3-point range in Game 1.  That's clearly not going to happen again.  Neither is Luke Kennard scoring 27 points on 5-of-5 3-point shooting.  The Rockets will make the proper adjustments in this one and really limit the Lakers offensively to pave the way to us cashing this UNDER 208.5 ticket.

The Lakers have been dominant defensively since losing Reaves and Doncic.  They have held their last four opponents to 95.3 points per game.  I think they can hold the Rockets down again even if Durant returns.  LeBron will milk every second of the shot clock in this one.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Blazers/Spurs NBC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 220.5

The Portland Trail Blazers ranked 1st in the NBA in defensive rating over their final 15 games of the regular season.  The Spurs ranked 3rd in the NBA in defensive rating for the entire season.  These are two elite defensive teams, and that played out in Game 1.

The Spurs beat the Blazers 111-98 for just 209 combined points in Game 1.  The Spurs even shot lights out from 3 going 15-of-33 (45.5%) yet still only scored 111 points.  The Blazers shot just 26.3% from 3, but they were the 3rd-worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA in the regular season so it's not what they do.

The Blazers rely on midrange jump shots and getting to the rim and getting fouled.  That makes this a terrible matchup for them as the Spurs committed the 3rd-fewest fouls in the NBA in the regular season.  The Blazers also got their first taste of Victor Wembenyama after dodging him in their three regular season meetings.  It did not go well for them scoring just 98 points in Game 1, and it won't go well for them tonight either.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Blazers and Spurs with 217 or fewer combined points in four of those six meetings.  This total of 220.5 has been set too high again for Game 2 tonight.  The Spurs won't shoot that well again, either.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* AL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on A's/Mariners OVER 7.5

The A's are a perfect 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall with 10 or more combined runs in all six games.  They have scored 6 runs or more three times.  The Mariners have scored at least 4 runs in three consecutive games, and both lineups should stay hot against these two gas can starting pitchers tonight.

Jacob Lopez is 1-1 with a 6.38 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in four starts for the A's this season while allowing 13 earned runs and 35 base runners in 18 1/3 innings.  Lopez was rocked for 9 earned runs in 2 innings of an 11-4 loss to the Mariners in his lone career start against them.

Luis Castillo is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in four starts for the Mariners this season while allowing 11 earned runs and 32 base runners in 18 1/3 innings.  He has been rocked for 15 runs, 11 earned, in 12 1/3 innings in his last three starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Royals OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Orioles and Royals tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center in Kansas City.  Keep in mind they moved the fences in at Kauffman Stadium so runs and home runs should be plentiful in KC all season, especially with the wind blowing out like it is tonight.

Shane Baz is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four starts for the Orioles this season, allowing 11 earned runs and 33 base runners in 22 innings.  Baz is 1-1 with a 4.61 ERA in two career starts against the Royals, allowing 7 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings.

Kris Bubic is 2-1 with a 3.97 ERA in four starts for the Royals this season allowing 10 earned runs in 22 2/3 innings.  He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 6.37 ERA this season.  And both bullpens are taxed after last night's 12-inning marathon.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on San Diego Padres -138

The Padres have the rest advantage after having Monday off while the Rockies were completing a 4-game series with the Dodgers.  The Padres are 13-2 in their last 15 games overall and should stay hot in Game 1 tonight.  They have a big advantage on the mound and should be bigger favorites as a result.

Randy Vasquez is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He is 1-0 with a 2.49 ERA in four starts this season while allowing just 6 earned runs in 21 2/3 innings with 25 K's.  Vasquez has owned the Rockies, allowing just 3 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings with 20 K's in his last three starts against them for a 1.53 ERA.

The Rockies will be making this a bullpen game and their bullpen is taxed after two straight high-scoring games against the Dodgers.  The Padres are 9-1 in their last 10 meetings with the Rockies.  Bet the Padres Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Padres/Rockies OVER 11

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 11 ticket between the Padres and Rockies tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at hitter-friendly Coors Field.  It was a similar forecast the last two days when the Rockies and Dodgers combined for 15 runs on Sunday and 15 more runs on Monday.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Rockies and Padres despite all six of those games being played at pitcher-friendly Petco Park in San Diego.  Both teams will really get their bats going tonight with this forecast.  The Padres are capable of covering this total on their own.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -125

The Chicago Cubs are rolling right now going 6-0 in their last six games overall.  They have scored 7 runs or more in five of their last eight games.  The Philadelphia Phillies are 0-6 in their last six games overall while scoring a total of 10 runs in those six games for an average of 1.7 runs per game.

The Cubs also have a big advantage on the mound tonight.  Shota Imanaga is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing just 6 earned runs and 17 base runners in 22 innings with 31 K's.  He held the Phillies to one earned run with 11 K's in 6 innings of an 11-2 win on April 15th less than a week ago.

Opposite Imanaga was Jesus Luzardo in that 11-2 win.  Luzardo was rocked for 8 earned runs and 12 hits in 5 1/3 innings.  He has been a disaster all season going 1-3 with a .794 ERA in four starts, allowing 20 earned runs in 22 2/3 innings.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Phillies/Cubs OVER 8.5

This will be a series rematch from just a week ago when the Cubs and Phillies met in Philadelphia for a 3-game set.  They combined for 20, 14 and 13 runs as all three games sailed OVER the total.  After going for just 6 combined runs in Game 1 of this series, runs should be plentiful at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field in Game 2 with temps in the 60's and 10 MPH winds blowing out to center.

Familiarity favors the offenses, and both offenses will get to see Jesus Luzardo and Shota Imanaga for the 2nd time in a week as both just faced off on April 15th in Philadelphia.  Luzardo was rocked for 8 earned runs and 12 hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 11-2 loss and 13 combined runs.

Both bullpens have key injuries right now which will also be a factor.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings with 9 or more combined runs in five of those six.  This total of 8.5 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Braves/Nationals OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Braves and Nationals tonight.  There will be steady 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Washington.  These teams combined for 13 runs yesterday even with the wind blowing in.

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 16-6-1 OVER in all games this season with 9 or more combined runs in 18 of those 23 games.  This total of 8.5 is too short for a game involving Washington right now.

The Nationals have one of the best lineups in baseball hitting .250 and scoring 5.4 runs per game.  But they have one of the worst staffs and bullpens in baseball.  Their bullpen has a 5.57 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 114 2/3 innings this season.  It's a big reason Washington is allowing 6.2 runs per game.

The Braves are scoring 5.7 runs per game with one of the best lineups in baseball.  They should put youngster Foster Griffin in his place.  He allowed 4 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in a 8-7 win over the Pirates in his last start.  Reynaldo Lopez is coming off his worst start of the season allowing 4 runs and 8 base runners in 5 innings of a 6-5 win over the Marlins.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.