Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Monday: Atlanta Braves -143

The Atlanta Braves are 4-1 in their last five games overall and are hitting the cover off the ball.  They have scored 7 runs or more in all four victories, including 13 yesterday against the Guardians.

The Miami Marlins are 1-5 on the road this season while scoring 2 runs or fewer four times.  They were just swept by the Tigers over the weekend and outscored 16-3 in the three losses.

Grant Holmes is 1-1 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in three starts for the Braves this season.  Holmes pitched 5 2/3 shutout innings in a 7-0 victory over the Marlins in his lone start against them last season.

Eury Perez is 1-1 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in three starts for the Marlins this season.  He has allowed 11 earned runs and 4 homers in 16 innings.  Perez is 0-2 with a 12.20 ERA and 2.13 WHIP in three career starts against the Braves, allowing 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 10 1/3 innings.  

Atlanta is 5-1 in its last six meetings with the Marlins while outscoring them 46-13 in the process.  Bet the Braves Monday.

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Jack Jones has SIX Top-10 MLB Finishes (#4 2024, #8 2023, #5 2019, #6 2014, #6 2010, #4 2009) to his credit! He finished as the No. 8 Ranked MLB Capper in 2023 with his $1,000/game players up $21,110 in 2023! He backed it up by finishing as the No. 4 Ranked MLB Capper in 2024 with $1,000/game players up $34,230! He has delivered a 111-83 MLB Run since last season!

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20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Guardians/Cardinals OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Guardians and Cardinals tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to left in St. Louis tonight.

It was a similar forecast yesterday when the Red Sox beat the Cardinals 9-3 for 12 combined runs.  It will be more of the same today.  The Guardians are 3-1 OVER in their last four games with 12 or more combined runs in three of them.  The Cardinals are 5-2-1 OVER in their last eight games with 8 or more combined runs in six of them.

Walks have been a big problem for Gavin Williams this season with 14 walks in 17 2/3 innings.  He will get punished by the patient Cardinals for his wildness.  Matthew Liberatore is 16-24 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 350 innings in his career in the big leagues.

Both teams have struggling bullpens so the runs should continue to come once these two mediocre starters exit.  The Cardinals have a 5.31 ERA and 1.51 WHIP as a bullpen while the Guardians have a 4.98 ERA as a bullpen.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Angels/Yankees OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Angels and Yankees tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium in this one.

Yusei Kikuchi is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in three starts for the Angels this season allowing 11 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings.  He is a fly ball pitcher and that will not bode well for him tonight against this potent Yankees lineup.

Will Warren is 0-2 with a 9.58 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in two career starts against the Angels, allowing 11 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings.  Warren will be up against a hot Angels lineup that scored 22 runs in three games against the Reds over the weekend.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cubs/Phillies OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Cubs and Phillies, who have two of the most potent lineups in the National League.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center in Philadelphia tonight.

The Cubs are 8-5-2 OVER in all games this season with 8 or more combined runs in 10 of those 15 games.  The OVER is 5-2-3 in the last 10 meetings between the Phillies and Cubs with 8 or more combined runs in seven of those 10 games, and 9 or more in six of them.

Javier Assad allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 1/3 innings in his last start against Philadelphia in a 9-6 defeat and 15 combined runs.  Cristopher Sanchez has allowed 10 earned runs and 2 homers in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Chicago, which saw 15 and 12 combined runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Guardians/Cardinals OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Guardians and Cardinals tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in St. Louis tonight.

It was a similar forecast yesterday when the Guardians beat the Cardinals 9-3 for 12 combined runs.  It was also a similar forecast Sunday in St. Louis when the Red Sox beat the Cardinals 9-3 for 12 combined runs.  It will be more of the same today.  

The Guardians are 4-1 OVER in their last five games with 12 or more combined runs in four of them.  The Cardinals are 6-2-1 OVER in their last nine games with 8 or more combined runs in seven of them.

The numbers are good for Cantillo and McGreevy thus far, but that is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Both teams have struggling bullpens so the runs should continue to come once these starters exit.  The Cardinals have a 5.26 ERA and 1.52 WHIP as a bullpen while the Guardians have a 4.80 ERA as a bullpen.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Nationals/Pirates OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Nationals and Pirates tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left field.  It was a similar forecast yesterday when the Pirates bludgeoned the Nationals 16-5 for 21 combined runs.  It will be more of the same tonight.

The Pirates are capable of covering this total on their own against one of the worst starters in baseball in Miles Mikolas.  He went 9-13 with a 4.78 ERA in 35 starts in 2023, 10-11 with a 5.35 ERA in 32 starts in 2024 and 8-11 with a 4.84 ERA in 31 starts in 2025.

Mikolas has been even worse thus far in 2026, going 0-3 with a 12.41 ERA and 2.35 WHIP in three starts while allowing 17 earned runs and 5 homers in 12 1/3 innings.  When he exits early, the Nationals have the worst bullpen in baseball with a 6.72 ERA and 1.63 WHIP In 73 2/3 innings this season.

The Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 12-3-1 OVER in all games this season with 9 or more combined runs in 13 of those 16 games.  They have one of the best lineups in baseball hitting .270 as a team.  They will do enough damage off Mitch Keller to contribute to this total tonight.  

Keller is 1-3 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in seven career starts against the Nationals.  The Pirates have a 4.22 ERA and 1.56 WHIP as a bullpen this season.  Pittsburgh is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Angels/Yankees OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Angels and Yankees tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium in this one.  It was a similar forecast yesterday when the Yankees beat the Angels 11-10 for 21 combined runs.

Reid Detmers is 0-1 with a 4.60 ERA in three starts this season allowing 8 earned runs in 15 2/3 innings.  Detmers is 21-32 with a 4.76 ERA in 465 innings in his career in the big leagues.  He will get rocked against this potent Yankees lineup tonight.

Ryan Weathers is 12-24 with a 4.82 ERA in 297 innings in his career in the big leagues.  Warren will be up against a hot Angels lineup that has scored 32 runs in their last four games.  

The Angels have a 4.73 ERA and 1.58 WHIP as a bullpen this season, while the Yankees have a 4.91 ERA as a bullpen at home.  Both bullpens will be taxed after yesterday's marathon.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Blazers/Suns NBA Play-In No-Brainer on UNDER 217.5

Defensive intensity is very high in these play-in games.  They also tend to be played at a much slower pace than the regular season.  Oddsmakers struggle to set these totals and base them too closely to the regular season numbers.

The Suns rank 24th in pace and will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  Both teams are much better defensively than they are offensively.  The Suns are 9th in defensive rating while the Blazers are 12th.  The Suns are 17th in offensive rating while the Blazers are 21st.

In their most recent meeting on February 22nd, the Blazers beat the Suns 92-77 for just 171 combined points.  There are some key injuries to watch with Jerami Grant (18.6 PPG) and Grayson Allen (16.5 PPG) questionable.  Both players provide a lot more offensively than they do defensively.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Heat/Hornets NBA Play-In ANNIHILATOR on Miami +5.5

No question the Charlotte Hornets have the better full season stats over the Miami Heat.  And going by those stats, this line of -5.5 would make sense.  But this is a play-in game with the season on the line for both teams, and I trust the veteran Heat more in this spot than the young Hornets who have no experience in these situations.

Erik Spoelstra has consistently defied the odds in the playoffs as the head coach of the Miami Heat.  He's easily a Top 5 coach in this league.  And the Heat have a ton of playoff experience led by Adebayo, Wiggins, Herro and Powell.  They are a dangerous team when they are as healthy as they are right now.

The Hornets are lead by a ton of youngsters in Ball, Miller, Kneuppel and Diabate.  They folded in their biggest games down the stretch when they were trying to avoid the play-in.  They lost by 11 in Boston and by 18 at home to the Pistons in two of their last three games.  I think they will fold tonight, too.

The Heat went 3-1 SU against the Hornets in the regular season and were without Bam Adebayo in the only game they lost.  Spoelstra has guided the Heat out of the play-in and into the playoffs in each of the past three seasons.  "We're here, and now we just have to make the most of this," Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. "There's no other way than just to absolutely go for it."  Bet the Heat Tuesday.