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Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 19, 2019
Wisconsin vs. Illinois
Wisconsin
-30½ -112
  at  BMAKER
in 7h

Wisconsin -31 1.1% Free Play

Not many will be brave enough to lay this many points on the road, but I think Wisconsin won’t be satisfied to just get up big in this game.  The coaches will be pointing to Michigan’s 28-0 early lead that slipped away making it a 28-25 game in the third quarter. I don’t see that with Wisconsin if anything they add to their lead.  I’m not worried about the look ahead with Wisconsin to Ohio State. They were undefeated in 2017 with Ohio State on deck and won at Minnesota 31-0.

 

Illinois has gotten by and have hung in games because they have been able to win the turnover battle.  They have been fortunate with a 70% fumble recovery rate, and they do have havoc on their defensive line with 18.9% havoc rate, but they haven’t faced many offensive lines like Wisconsin who rank among the nation’s best, 12th in power success rate, just 8.69% havoc rate allowed and that’s against a very tough opponent average rank of 16.87%.

Wisconsin should get some big running plays in this one as Illinois ranks 113th in 20+ rushes allowed, 117th in 10+ rushes allowed, and 81st in ypc, and that’s against an average offensive ranking of 96th.  Wisconsin ranks 14th, against some good defenses. Illinois has allowed each of its last 3 opponents to go over 300 yards. I wonder what they might have expended against a physical Michigan team making that come back.  I see Wisconsin continuing on their path of shutting teams out as they cover this game.

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 18, 2019
Pittsburgh vs Syracuse
Syracuse
+4½ -112 at BMaker
Lost
$112.0
Play Type: Premium

Syracuse +4 2.2% play 

Do you want to bet on a team that blew a 23 point lead, and committed 15 penalties in their last road game. I have been high on Pitt all year, and have profited with them as they have gone 4-2 ATS, and now off a bye it's time to sell high on this team that is still growing in their new offense.  They go up against a Syracuse team who has a very good home field advantage, and they have an extra day to prepare for this game.

61% of the money is on Pitt in this game, and I've heard almost everyone in the media calling for Pitt to win big, and many are pointing out Syracuse's offensive line which has played poorly.  I can't argue with that, and going up against Pitt's defensive line which has a ton of sacks, and among the leaders in havoc rate.  However, Syracuse's defensive line also has some elite players, and I think their defense is getting disrespected here being a 4 point home dog I think there is a ton of value for a defense that is under rated.  Syracuse has given up some big point totals this year, against Maryland, Clemson, Western Michigan and all 3 of those offenses have something in common.  They can run the hell out of the ball ranking 7th, 10th, and 17th in yards per carry.  Pitt is not that type of offense under Mark Whipple.  They rank 112th in ypc offense, the other 3 teams Syracuse faced scored 3, 0, and 16 points.  NC State's offense is very close to what Pitt offers, and Syracuse very impressively held them to 16 points on the road last week.  I can see another defensive struggle as Pitt gets into third and longs, and Syracuse also can bring havoc witha  20.4% havoc rate that typically only gets better at home.

Syracuse's offense has to step up in this game, and to be honest they can only look better.  Looking at Syracuse's offense they are almost identical to Duke's offense that came back against Pitt.  Syracuse actually has a far better QB Rating which is where you need to attack this PItt defense.  The fact that Duke had 6 TO's in the game and only lost by 3 has to say something about this Pitt team.  You may expect a better performance from Narduzzi and Pitt out of the bye?  Well over the last 3 years they have gone just 1-2, and for a defensive minded coach you'd think the defense would play better off the bye, but they gave up 45, 34, and 39 points in those situations.  IT's clear this defense was clicking until the 2nd half of the Duke game, and then they went into the bye for me at the wrong time.

Syracuse also has advantages in special teams ranking 30th in the nation compared to Pitt's 105th ranking.  This should play a huge factor in tonight's game.  I often feel the special teams advantage's only increase when you are at home.  At the end of the day I don't think much separates Duke and Syracuse and Pitt and NC State, which are both these last two team opponents.  Both games were inside a posession and I see the sme thing happening here.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 18, 2019
Marshall vs Florida Atlantic
Marshall
+5½ -110 at betonline
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Marshall +5 3.3% play 

This is a buy low spot on a team that is 1-5 ATS in Marshall, but is typically one of the better ATS teams going up against an overrated Florida Atlantic team that is 4-2 ATS.  Doc Holliday is a great coach at Marshall. He is 7-2 ATS the last 3 years as a road dog, and he always takes these games with the Florida schools seriously, because he does a lot of recruiting in the state.  Marshall is 12-3 since 2013 vs. the Florida schools or games played in the sunshine state including 3-0 in bowl games. Marshall has a lot of Florida players as well, and I think they have a good shot at pulling the upset.

 

When we look at these two teams I really can’t figure out why this is not FAU -3.  Marshall’s offense and defense is better. Their blended YPP differential vs. opponent YPP differential is about a half yard better at -0.48 compared to FAU’s -0.9.  They both have played and lost to two TOP25 teams. I think this line is inflated because right away people are going to look at the most recent results and see that Marshall lost against Middle Tennessee on the road and FAU beat them at home.  Marshall had a misleading loss they were actually +1.02 YPP in that game +177 total yards, but were -4 TO. FAU was outgained against Middle Tennessee by 95 yards on their home turf and were -1.34 YPP. That’s a difference of 2.36 yards per play, and FAU is getting credit in the market when they shouldn’t be.  76% of the money on FAU here tonight, and I could not disagree more.

For Marshall to be successful they need to establish the run, and they rank 18th in YPC going up against a defense ranking 97th at stopping the run.  FAU’s defensive #’s look better than they actually are. This is a poor defense ranking 109th in YPP defense giving up 27 and 31 points to lesser teams like Charlotte and Ball State.  Marshall has the ingredients to win as a dog on the road. They hung right with Boise despite not playing their best game, and that was a much more difficult trip. Marshall has an experienced line and rank 18th at protecting their QB, and have only allowed a 7.89 % havoc rate.  They have been poor in TO margin, while FAU has been very good, but I think that’s largely due to the fact that Marshall has been unlucky recovering just 33% of fumbles, and FAU has recovered 71% of their fumbles.

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