Scott Rickenbach

MLB Monday OVER 10 -120 in Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:10 ET - This is a big total but it is justified. The Braves are the top hitting team in the majors thus far. The Astros are the top hitting team in the American League so far. Also, the Astros bullpen has struggled so far this season and the Braves bullpen has had ups and downs and rank only in the middle of the pack on the young season. As for these starters, I am not convinced of Vines "stuff" in terms of being a major league hurler. He is still young and raw and so give him a chance to develop but will his repertoire of pitches be enough at this level? I am still not convinced. I think the Astros will give him trouble here in his first MLB start of this season. Houston has a pitching concern of their own here as Arrighetti gets the start in this one. He could be back in AAA after this start as Verlander is close to coming back. There is a lot of pressure on the young hurler and he got rocked in his first MLB start versus the Royals and allowed 7 earned runs in just 3 innings. He had not looked overly sharp in the minors either. Arrighetti has a strong arm but he is just not quite ready yet and it is showing in his results. Given all of the above, the over is the play in this one as it should be a slugfest. OVER 10 -120 in Houston

NHL Monday OVER 6 -105 in Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres @ 7 ET - This game is somewhat similar to yesterday's over I had which totaled 11 goals and was between two non-playoff teams. In this case, the Bolts are going to the post-season but this game can neither hurt them nor help them in terms of playoff positioning! As for the Sabres, they also can throw caution to the wind because they are not going to the playoffs so this game is just playing out the string on the season. If you look at all the other games on the schedule for Monday, there is a highly motivated team involved which ups the level of defensive intensity. I like looking for overs in games where teams may not be fully focused on defense and this is one of those! These teams will be skating and looking for chances and not too concerned about getting back on defense. We get additional value here because each of the 3 prior meetings this season were unders. You know what is coming here given the circumstances. Both teams were recently playing hard because of playoff reasons and the Sabres had been trending under as a result. However, no playoff pressure is involved here and the Lightning have had 5 of last 7 games total at least 6 goals and I look for a very free-flowing game here with plenty of goals given the situation. OVER 6 -105 in Tampa Bay

Rotation #200109: English Premier League: Monday OVER 3 -130 in Chelsea vs Everton @ 3 ET - Chelsea's last 7 matches across all competitions have ALL gone over the total! Not only that, those matches have averaged 5 goals apiece! Solid line value here with this total being held down to a 3 in some books. Note that this is because Everton is known for lower-scoring battles but I do believe that Chelsea is going to dictate the flow of this match. Also note that Chelsea has been giving up plenty of goals no matter who they have faced. Chelsea has allowed 2 or more goals in 7 straight matches across all competitions. Everton has scored 2 goals in each of last 2 meetings with Chelsea. Also, Everton has scored at least 1 goal in 6 of last 7 matches overall. Chelsea is a sizable favorite here with good reason and you can see why I am anticipating at least a 2-1 final here given all of the above but, truly, a 3-2 type match is even more likely! Look for plenty of scoring in this one. OVER 3 -120 in Chelsea

Rotation #206909: Romania Liga 1 Play-off: Monday OVER 2.5 -110 in Rapid Bucuresti vs Sepsi @ 1:30 ET - This total is 2.5 with good reason. The last 3 meetings between these clubs, amazingly, have all been 0-0 draws! However, you are going to see nothing like that today. Rapid has had 4 straight matches go over the total. This one will make it 5 in a row as they continue to struggle to stop opponents but also continue getting on the scoreboard. They will fight hard on their home pitch to finally get into the win column here in the play-off round but they have allowed 8 goals last 3 matches. Rapid has scored an average of 2.5 goals in last 14 home matches! Sepsi has gone over the total in 3 straight road matches! That means we are testing double perfect over angles here. OVER 2.5 -110 in Rapid Bucuresti