Steve Merril

-Arizona State played in the weak Pac 12 conference; mediocre team at best out of conference 

-offense is shooting 42.8% from the field on the road vs. defenses that allow 43.5% shooting 

-Sun Devils defense gave up 74.9 points per game on the road this season; bad matchup here

-St. John’s comes in off an ugly 32-point loss to Marquette; 5 days off since; big effort tonight
-offense is shooting 36.1% from 3-point land vs. defenses that allow 34.4% shooting from 3
-Red Storm allow 43.5% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 44.4% from the field 

10* Play ST. JOHN’S (+).

-Saint Mary’s lost 11 games this season, but they’re in excellent form; 9-2 their last 11 games
-offense is shooting 47.4% from the field vs. defenses that give up 43.3% shooting from the field
-Gaels defense allows 30.5% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses that shoot 35% from 3 

-Villanova is household name now after recent championships and deep runs in this tournament
-offense is shooting 43.9% from the field vs. defenses that give up 43.5% shooting from the field
-Wildcats allowing 35.2% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses that shoot 34.9% from 3

9* Play SAINT MARY’S (+).

-Abilene Christian lost 6 games this season; 4 of those losses came by 9 points or less; tough out
-offense is shooting 47.4% from the field vs. defenses that give up 45.9% shooting from the field
-Wildcats defense allows 63.1 points per game vs. offenses that average 67.8 points per game

-Kentucky is extremely talented, but they are also a very young team; bad matchup vs. slow team
-offense scored 66 points or less in 3 of their last 5 true road games to close the season; bad form
-Wildcats allowing 36.1% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses that shoot 34.8% from 3

9* Play ABILENE CHRISTIAN (+).

-Northeastern closed the season with a flourish; 16-2 SU over their last 18 games; one loss in OT
-offense is shooting 40% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that give up 35.2% shooting from 3
-Huskies defense allows just 33.6% shooting from three vs. offenses that shoot 35.5% from three

-Kansas is talented, but they are extremely young and will be forced into a half court game
-offense struggles mightily in slow-paced games; just 3-8 SU when held to less than 70 points
-Jayhawks defense faded down the stretch; they allowed 78 ppg over their last 5 road games

10* Play NORTHEASTERN (+).

-New Mexico State quietly went 30-4 this season; they have a terrific offense and a solid defense
-offense is shooting 47.3% from the field on the road vs. defenses that give up 44.5% shooting
-Aggies defense allows 64.1 points per game vs. offenses that average 71.3 points per game  

-Auburn went on a strong run to win the SEC tournament; off that success, expect regression
-offense is shooting 42.4% from the field on the road vs. defenses that give up 42.9% shooting
-Tigers defense allows 37.5% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses that shoot 34.4% from 3

9* Play NEW MEXICO STATE (+).

-Yale had a terrific season with 22 wins; loads of talent, including NBA prospect; very good team
-offense is shooting 49.8% from the field vs. defenses that give up 44.2% shooting from the field
-Bulldogs allow just 29.7% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses that shoot 34.2% from 3

-LSU had an unexpectedly good season; they pulled off lots of upsets along the way; overvalued
-offense is shooting just 32.3% from three vs. defenses that give up 33.3% shooting from three
-Tigers allowing 75.7 points per game on the road vs. offenses that average 73 points per game

9* Play YALE (+).