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Stephen Nover |
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| I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst. |
| FREE PICKS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
| MLB | Sep 23, 2021 Rangers vs. Orioles |
Orioles +105 at CONSENSUS |
in 7h |
| Glenn Otto versus Zac Lowther. This just may be the worst pitching matchup of the season. Otto is 0-2 with a 9.37 ERA. Lowther is 0-2 with a 9.61 ERA. So why pray tell get involved in this game? The answer is simple. The Rangers opened as a road favorite. That hasn't happened since June 2 - and for good reason. Texas has the worst road record in the majors at 22-55. Texas isn't playing well either losing seven of its last eight games, including the past four. The Orioles are coming off a competitive series against the Phillies. They beat the Phillies, 2-0, on Monday and then lost a pair of one-run games to Philadelphia on Tuesday and Wednesday with the Tuesday one being decided in extra innings. Make no mistake, though, my handicap isn't based on endorsing the Orioles but strictly fading the Rangers. Lowther is terrible. But so is Otto. He's surrendered 15 runs in his last two starts spanning 7 innings while allowing 15 hits and five walks during this hideous two-game span. | ||
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Sep 22, 2021 Mariners vs A's |
Mariners +128 at pinnacle |
Won $128 |
| Play Type: Free | ||
| Small market. Late start times. No marquee stars. These are among the reasons why the Mariners don't get the respect they deserve. All the Mariners have done is go 82-69. They have a winning road mark and have earned more money for bettors than any team in the American League. This is the third of a four-game series between Seattle and Oakland. The Mariners have been 'dogs the first two games - and won them both. Now they are underdogs again. Since the All-Star break the Mariners have beaten the A's seven of eight times. I'm compelled to ride Seattle in another underdog role here. Oakland was 6-3 in its previous nine games heading into this series. However, the A's had compiled that record against the Rangers, Royals and Angels. Those three teams are a combined 62 games below .500. It can be tough to play at Oakland Coliseum. But the A's are drawing small crowds and Seattle is used to playing in a pitcher's park. So the A's don't hold the home advantage they should in this matchup. The pitching matchup is Chris Flexen (12-6 with a 3.66 ERA) versus Cole Irvin (10-13, 3.94 ERA). But this is an action play for me. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Sep 22, 2021 Twins vs Cubs |
Cubs +106 at linepros |
Lost $100.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| I'm going to side with veteran Kyle Hendricks at a plus price pitching at home against rookie Joe Ryan. Hendricks is having a disappointing season, but he's a proven commodity and he knows how to navigate tricky winds at Wrigley Field. Those are the weather conditions in today's games with winds at 23 mph blowing in. Hendricks won't lack motivation as this likely will be his final home start. Ryan has looked good for Minnesota - but the sample is short. This is his fourth big league start. Two of them came against the weak-hitting Indians. The other was against these same Cubs, who got to him for three runs in five innings on Sept. 1. So the Cubs are familiar with Ryan. Note the Twins are 0-5 the past five times they've been interleague favorites. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Sep 22, 2021 #Royals vs #Indians |
#Royals -107 at William Hill |
P |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| The price is right to back the Royals, who have the better starting pitcher. Kansas City's Carlos Hernandez is 6-2 with a 3.90 ERA. He's been at his best on the road where he's 3-0 with a 2.60 ERA. Cleveland is pitching lefty Logan Allen, who is 1-7 with a 7.11 ERA. Allen has surrendered nine runs on 15 hits during his last starts spanning nine innings. The Royals are 17-8 in their last 25 games versus lefty starters. They rank third in the American League in batting average against southpaws. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Sep 22, 2021 Dodgers vs Rockies |
UNDER 11 -115 |
Lost $115.0 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
| Playing on marketplace perception, the oddsmaker has a tendency to set a higher total than what should be at Coors Field. The Under has cashed in 22 of the Rockies' last 32 home games. I'm expecting another Under in today's game at Coors Field between the Dodgers and Rockies, who have gone below the total the past six times they've met. The pitching matchup is Walker Buehler versus German Marquez. I don't doubt Buehler will come in with a strong performance being a Cy Young Award candidate with a 14-4 record and 2.39 ERA. He has a 2.77 ERA in two starts at Coors Field this season. Buehler has yielded two earned runs or fewer in 14 of his last 16 starts. I see Marquez holding up his end, too. He's 8-2 with a 3.16 ERA at home this season. He also has a 2.52 ERA in 10 career starts versus the Dodgers. | ||
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SERVICE BIO |
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Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons. |
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