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Stephen Nover |
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| I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst. |
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NHL | Mar 04, 2021 Jets vs Canadiens |
OVER 5½ -111 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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I think anything less than six goals is too short of a total for this matchup. The Jets rank sixth in the NHL in scoring, while Montreal is the eighth-highest scoring team in the league. The teams met twice during the last week of February and the Jets averaged four goals per game in the two games. The Over has cashed in nine of the last 13 meetings between the two clubs. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-B | Mar 04, 2021 Wyoming vs Utah State |
Wyoming +16½ -109 at pinnacle |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| Utah State hasn't been consistent enough to lay this large of a number. The Aggies are 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS in their last eight games. The Cowboys are at their best in this role covering 14 of the past 18 times as a road 'dog. Wyoming has one of the better backcourt tandems in the Mountain West with Marcus Williams and Hunter Maldonado. The Cowboys also have been playing better defense holding their last three foes to an average of 68.6 points. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-B | Mar 04, 2021 Oklahoma State vs Baylor |
Oklahoma State +12 -109 at Draft Kings |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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Oklahoma State is playing extremely well winning five in a row, including three straight versus ranked opponents during this span. The Cowboys shouldn't be nearly this high of a road 'dog against Baylor. The Bears could be in for a letdown after capturing their first conference title in 71 years. The Bears are still rounding into shape following a three-week February shutdown caused by COVID-19. This is just the Bears' fourth game since Feb. 2. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NBA | Mar 04, 2021 Thunder vs Spurs |
Thunder +7 -108 at pinnacle |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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It's tough to do after last night's game. I know so well. I had the Thunder plus eight points against the Mavericks on Wednesday attacking the overnight line in the hopes Luka Doncic would be held out. As it turned out this is what I had going in Wednesday's Thunder-Mavericks game: Maximum line value - checkmark. Dallas closed a 5-point favorite. Doncic out - checkmark. He didn't play. Mavericks greatly missing Doncic - checkmark. The Thunder held Dallas to 87 points, which easily was the Mavericks' lowest-scoring game of the season. Thunder getting the cover and the money - No checkmark. Oklahoma City lost to Dallas, 87-78. Words can't adequately express how pissed I was with that result. I bring this up not to vent, although it feels good to unleash this pent-up anger. But to point out in the NBA you can't hold grudges. If the value is there you must get back in the saddle and I see value coming right back with Oklahoma City in this matchup. Yes, the Thunder did play last night. Prior to their game against the Mavericks, though, the Thunder hadn't played since last Saturday. It's San Antonio who has the bigger fatigue issue. This is the Spurs' third game in four days and fourth in six days. The Spurs are playing through a short rotation, too, due to illness. Rudy and Derrick White are out. LaMarcus Aldrdige has been logging short minutes and is questionable for this game. Despite the frustrating non-cover against the Mavericks, the Thunder still have covered 28 of their last 40 road contests for 70 percent. The Spurs are 10-25 (28 percent) ATS the last 35 times as home chalk. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NHL | Mar 04, 2021 Red Wings vs Hurricanes |
Red Wings +1½ +102 at pinnacle |
Lost $100.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| OK, at even money plus 1 1/2 goals I can get involved with the Red Wings given this anti-Carolina situational spot. The Hurricanes just concluded a five-game road trip this past Tuesday night. They are riding a three-game win streak. This is their first home game since Feb. 22. It's easy for the Hurricanes to suffer a concentration lapse and letdown with the Red Wings as their opponent. Carolina also is carrying a high fatigue rating. The Hurricanes will be playing their sixth game in nine days. The teams split two games in Detroit to open the season in January. Most of this handicap is a fade on Carolina, but the Red Wings would be 8-5 in their last 13 games if getting 1 1/2 goals, while the Hurricanes would be 1-4 in their last five games if laying 1 1/2 goals. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NHL | Mar 04, 2021 Senators vs Flames |
Flames -1½ +130 at Draft Kings |
Won $130 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| Calgary has been idle since returning home from three games at Ottawa. The Flames went 1-2 in those games with the last occurring in a 5-1 loss this past Monday. I want the rested Flames going for me in this revenge spot especially now they're getting back forward Derek Ryan and starting goalie Jacob Markstrom. The latest loss to Ottawa put Flames coach Geoff Ward's job in jeopardy. So I believe the Flames are primed for a big effort. This will be the Senators' third game in four days. They are 0-6 the past six times in this type of situation. They also have lost 10 of the past 13 times in Calgary. Ottawa has been a terrible road team losing 51 of their last 65 away contests. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-B | Mar 04, 2021 San Diego vs San Francisco |
UNDER 143½ -110 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| A combination of frequent COVID-19 pauses that caused them to miss 14 games plus key players quitting have taken a large toll on the Toreos this season. San Diego enters the West Coast Conference Tournament in Las Vegas 1-4 in its last five games. San Diego ranks 267th in scoring at 67.4 points a game, 263rd in shooting percentage and 268th in 3-point shooting. So the Toreos should do their part to make this Under work. So should San Francisco. The Dons have lost six in a row averaging 66.1 points during this span. San Francisco has made only 21.2 percent of its 3-point shots during this time frame. The teams met back on New Year's Eve in San Francisco and the Dons won, 70-62, for a total of 132 points. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-B | Mar 04, 2021 Stetson vs Bellarmine |
UNDER 144 -113 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| Bellarmine heads into the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament having played just once since Feb. 13. The Knights have been held to 64 or fewer points in four of their last five games. Stetson has been involved in some high scoring games. But Bellarmine gives up fewer than 65 points a game and plays at a slow tempo. The teams met twice during the regular season. Bellarmine won both meetings with the combined scores finishing at 129 and 141 points, respectively. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-B | Mar 04, 2021 Illinois State vs Northern Iowa |
UNDER 142 -111 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
| The Missouri Valley Conference always has been a defensive-minded conference populated by good coaches. So I think Under first when looking at Missouri Valley Conference matchups especially during tournament time when the games are held at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. This venue is notorious for being tough to score in as a neutral site with the Under cashing better than 65 percent on opening numbers during the last 10 years. The season is finished for the loser of this game. So the intensity level should be at full throttle. Illinois State and Northern Iowa are well acquainted having just played two games against each other to close out its regular seasons. Northern Iowa won 70-56 for a total of 126 points two games ago. The Panthers then beat Illinois State again, 94-87, in overtime. Note, though, the score was 70-70 during regulation. Illinois State hasn't broken 67 points in seven of its last 11 games. Northern Iowa hasn't gone above 70 points in regulation during eight of its last nine games. | ||
| PICKS IN PROGRESS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-B | Mar 05, 2021 Northern Iowa vs Drake |
UNDER 140 -110 | |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Northern Iowa catches a break that Drake is minus leading scorer ShanQuan Hemphill and its No. 3 scorer and top assists man, Roman Penn. Both are injured. The Panthers have been playing strong defense holding their past five foes to an average of 64.6 points in regulation. Drake ranks 37th in the nation defensively holding foes to 64.1 points. Northern Iowa ranks 220th in scoring averaging fewer than 70 points a game. Both teams won't be helped scoring-wise by the venue, Enterprise Center in St. Louis, which has one of the toughest shooting backdrops in the country. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-B | Mar 05, 2021 Boston College vs Miami-FL |
UNDER 148 -107 | |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| I can understand where the oddsmaker is coming from when he made this total. Boston College beat Miami, 84-62, at home on Jan. 12. So 146 points were scored in that game. The Eagles, though, went crazy in that matchup sinking 18 of 35 shots from beyond the arc for 51.4 percent 3-point shooting. Boston College's season 3-point shooting percentage is 33.7. Since that game, the Eagles are averaging 66.2 points in their last five games if you discount their matchup against Notre Dame two games ago. The Eagles rank 263rd in field goal shooting. Miami is averaging 64.2 points in its last five games. The Hurricanes are a well below average offensive team. They rank 307th out of 340 Division I teams in scoring, 284th in field goal percentage and 329th in 3-point percentage. | ||
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SERVICE BIO |
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Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons. |
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