Stephen Nover

I am anything but a Deshaun Watson apologist. Watson is one of my most disliked sports figures. But reports of him being so bad that he should be benched are grossly exaggerated. 

Watson has been getting better each week and doing it without multiple offensive line starters and underrated tight end David Njoku. The result is he's been sacked 19 times, most in the NFL. But that should change here. There's a good chance Njoku plays for the first time since opening week and both starting offensive tackles, Jedrick Wills Jr. and Jack Conklin, return, too. Both are above average. Wills only has played 2 1/2 quarters, while Conklin would be making his season debut. 

Jayden Daniels has been the talk of the NFL through September. Daniels has completed an insane 82.1 percent of his passes and leads all QB's with four rushing TD's. The result is the Commanders being favored by the most points in their last 11 games. 

Washington is a surprising 3-1, leading the NFC East Division. The Browns are a disappointing 1-3. They could have been at least 2-2 if one incompetent official didn't wipe out a fourth-quarter, 82-yard touchdown pass from Watson to a wide open Amari Cooper on a phantom holding call in last week's game against the Raiders. Watson was 24-of-32 passing against the Raiders despite having little time in the pocket. 
I see this spot as a clear sell high on the Commanders, buy low on the Browns.  

Washington is fat and happy returning home after consecutive road upset victories against the Cardinals and Bengals two Monday nights ago. The Browns are in desperation mode by comparison. 

But can Cleveland produce enough points? I'm confident they can with a return to health of key offensive line starters and facing a Washington defense that is one of the worst in the league especially on pass defense. The Commanders rank in the bottom-eight in scoring defense and total defense. They have yet to come up with a defensive takeaway. Part of Washington's defensive struggles are having small safeties and slow linebackers. 

Daniels struggled until garbage time when he faced the Buccaneers opening week. During his last three games, Daniels has faced the Giants, Bengals and Cardinals - all mediocre-to-weak defenses. The Browns will be the most talented defense he's seen since entering the NFL with the best pass rusher, Myles Garrett. Cleveland's Jim Schwartz is one of the better defensive coordinators. He should have a solid defensive game plan to slow down Daniels, perhaps having speedy, versatile linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah shadow Daniels. 

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover went 5-1 on his NFL plays last week, looking to beat the NFL for the 27th time in 32 years. Stephen has five Sunday NFL plays in addition to this free selection.)

This isn't the dangerous, Super Bowl-caliber Bills team of the past four seasons. The Bills are more down than perceived. It wasn't a fluke that the Bills were exposed by the Ravens this past Sunday night.

The Bills aren't explosive anymore. Josh Allen doesn't have the quality wide receivers he had before. Stefon Diggs is on Houston now. He will have the Texans highly motivated to beat his former Bills team. Khalil Shakir is Buffalo's top wide receiver and he's out with an ankle injury.

The Texans have the better overall roster given Buffalo's multiple key injuries on defense.

C.J. Stroud leads the AFC in passing yards. Nico Collins is emerging as a top-five wide receiver. Diggs will be involved. Tank Dell is expected back. It's an added plus if Joe Mixon can return after being out the past two weeks.

Houston is 9-3 at home under second-year coach DeMeco Ryans.

The Colts are 2-2. The Jaguars are 0-4, the lone winless team in the NFL. But Jacksonville isn't a terrible 0-4. The Jaguars are 2-2 ATS and have losses to the Dolphins, Browns and Texans by a combined margin of 12 points, an average loss of four points. A goal line fumble cost the Jaguars probably a sure win against Miami when the Dolphins were at full strength with Tua Tagovailoa.

The oddsmaker believes it's time for the Jaguars to win making them the favorite. I agree. 

The Colts, a dome team, haven't won at Jacksonville since 2014. Indy has dropped nine consecutive road games against the Jaguars, counting one in London. There is a high possibility of rain for this game. That's a plus in Jaguars' favor being an outdoor team. 

Jacksonville not only is due and in must-win mode win, but the timing is good. The Colts are severely hobbled. Jonathan Taylor is out and Anthony Richardson isn't likely to play leaving the Jaguars to defend against immobile Joe Flacco.

The Colts are even more banged-up on defense. They are down several defensive backs and linemen, including three-time Pro Bowler DeForest Buckner. The Colts rank 31st in run defense. The Jaguars are averaging 5.7 yards per run, which rates second in the NFL.

This line is too respectful of the Panthers. Are they a better team with Andy Dalton at QB? Yes. Are they still the worst team in the NFC? Yes, too.

Dalton isn't some savior. He's an over-the-hill, mediocre starting QB who only has looked decent in comparison to Bryce Young.

Defense, though, is the Panthers' biggest problem. Carolina is surrendering the most points in the NFL giving up 32.3 a game. The Panthers' defense is likely to get even worse as injuries take a toll. They are without their best defensive lineman, Derrick Brown, and just this past week lost their two best linebackers, Shaq Thompson and Josey Jewell.

The Bears have a top-10 defense. They are very opportunistic, too, ranking fourth in takeaways.

Caleb Williams is improving each week. The Bears displayed a balanced attack last week, which can only help Williams as he now faces the easiest defense of his early NFL career.