Stephen Nover Stephen Nover

I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst.

Stephen Nover's NCAA Tourney Big Ticket Saturday - 10-3 NCAA Tourney!

Fresh off cashing an easy Max Unit winner with Texas against Xavier on Friday, sizzling Stephen Nover has won 77 percent of his NCAA Tournament plays going 10-3! Stick with Stephen's expertise, spot-on analysis and hot hand as he's found another Max Unit NCAA Tournament winner on today's card.

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While the NCAA Tournament is taking center stage, there's a Saturday hockey total that should not be ignored. It's Stephen Nover's March NHL Total of the Month and his largest Over/Under hockey wager of 2023! Supplement your Saturday basketball earnings with this monster winner as Stephen looks to win his fourth straight premium/free NHL play.

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FREE PICKS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Mar 25, 2023
Red Wings vs. Flyers
Total
6½ -115
  at  MIRAGE
started

I don't trust either of these teams enough to believe they will produce seven goals in this game. An early start time does not help the offenses either.

The Red Wings are averaging two goals in their five games.

The Flyers have been hot. Their last five games have all gone Over. They have multiple injuries, though, and I don't see an up-tempo matchup.

The teams have met twice this season. Both games were easy Under winners. The Flyers defeated the Red Wings, 3-1, at home on March 5. The Flyers also nipped the Red Wings, 2-1, in Detroit on Jan. 21.

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Mar 24, 2023
Pistons vs Raptors
Pistons
+15 -110 at SC Consensus
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Free

Now that the line has reached 15, I'm going to hold my nose and take the Pistons.

Yes, the injury-decimated Pistons, losers of 15 of their last 16 games and last in the Eastern Conference with a 16-57 record.

Why?

Toronto also is heavily banged-up. The Raptors were missing injured Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent and Precious Achiuwa when they lost in their last game, 118-114, at home to the Pacers two days ago. Those are three of the Raptors' five leading scorers. None of the three practiced on Thursday.

Another key factor is the history between these two teams. It's not a coincidence the Pistons have covered the spread the past nine times against Toronto. Pistons coach Dwayne Casey used to coach the Raptors. He gets his team up for this opponent.

The teams have met three times this season. Toronto won all three - but none of the victories were by more than four points.

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Mar 24, 2023
Bucks vs Jazz
Jazz
+9½ -110 at Mirage
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

The Bucks are not a team I normally want to go against. Not only do the Bucks have the best record in the NBA, but they've also covered 57 percent of the games.

But this spot sets up for Utah and the line value is there. The Jazz are a top-four team against the spread like Milwaukee, covering 57 percent of their games, too.

The Bucks haven't been on the road in 10 days. They have a huge look-ahead marquee game up next at the Nuggets - the West's No. 1 seed - on Saturday.

Utah had its two-game win streak snapped in a bad 12-point home loss to the Trail Blazers two days ago. Prior to that, Utah had covered six in a row. The Jazz should play hard here following that home humiliation. Utah has to play road games in four of its next five games.

The Bucks won't have Khris Middleton, arguably their second-best player. They may limit Giannis Antetokounmpo's minutes, too, knowing they have a monster matchup tomorrow.

Milwaukee traditionally hasn't fared well in Utah's high altitude. The Bucks are just 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games in Salt Lake City.

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Mar 24, 2023
Bulls vs Blazers
Blazers
+2½ -107 at linepros
Lost
$107.0
Play Type: Premium

I understand why the Bulls are favored. Portland is 1-6 in its last seven games. Chicago is 5-2 in its last seven games.

I just don't agree that the Bulls should be road chalk here.

This is last-stand time for the Trail Blazers as they open a five-game homestand being 3 1/2 games out of a play-in playoff spot. They need to open their homestand with a victory here.

The buy sign is on after Portland showed life by upsetting the Jazz on the road, 127-115, two days ago. Yes, Portland had lost six straight games prior to that victory. But those defeats occurred to the Celtics twice, 76ers, Knicks, Clippers and Pelicans. Every one of those teams has a better record than Chicago.

The Bulls are 14-21 on the road. They are 2-6-1 ATS in their past nine away contests and 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when playing on one day's rest. The Bulls won't have injured DeMar DeRozan.

I understand why the Bulls are favored. Portland is 1-6 in its last seven games. Chicago is 5-2 in its last seven games.

I just don't agree that the Bulls should be road chalk here.

This is last-stand time for the Trail Blazers as they open a five-game homestand being 3 1/2 games out of a play-in playoff spot. They need to open their homestand with a victory here.

The buy sign is on after Portland showed life by upsetting the Jazz on the road, 127-115, two days ago. Yes, Portland had lost six straight games prior to that victory. But those defeats occurred to the Celtics twice, 76ers, Knicks, Clippers and Pelicans. Every one of those teams has a better record than Chicago.

The Bulls are 14-21 on the road. They are 2-6-1 ATS in their past nine away contests and 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when playing on one day's rest. The Bulls won't have DeMar DeRozan.

The line has gone up since I released this play as Damian Lillard is questionable and Jusuf Nurkic is doubtful. Given the iffy status of these key players, I would downgrade my selection from one unit to half a unit.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 24, 2023
Xavier vs Texas
Texas
-4 -110 at YouWager
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

Texas can win either by its defense or offense. They are one of just four schools that rank in the Top 20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency.

Xavier is heavily reliant on offense. The Musketeers rank 305th defensively. They average 82.1 points, however, which ranks 12th.

Texas, though, is playing outstanding defense. The Longhorns have held their last six opponents - Kansas twice, Oklahoma State, TCU, Colgate and Penn State - to an average of only 58.2 points a game.

Xavier's season-long numbers are skewed. The Musketeers haven't been that potent since losing their second-leading scorer, Zach Freemantle, at the end of January. He was averaging 15.2 points, while shooting 58.5 percent from the floor. Xavier has rarely encountered an opponent as athletic and defensively sound as the Longhorns.

The Longhorns haven't missed a beat since Rodney Terry replaced Chris Beard as head coach in January. The Longhorns upset Kansas to win the Big 12 Conference Tournament. They are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games.

SERVICE BIO

Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons.