Stephen Nover Stephen Nover

I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst.

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 20, 2019
Sam Houston State vs TCU
Sam Houston State
+13½ -109 at GTBets
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium
Don't sleep on Sam Houston State. The Bearkats will be far more motivated for this NIT matchup than Texas Christian. The Horned Frogs had their sights set on the NCAA Tournament. But a blown 12-point lead in a loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 Conference Tournament doomed TCU's NCAA chances.  It's hard to imagine TCU getting up for this matchup. The Horned Frogs have failed to cover in six of their last seven home games.  TCU finished its regular season 3-7. Sam Houston State is 17-3 in its last 20 games. The Bearkats have covered nine of their last 11 road contests and also are 10-4 ATS during their past 14 non-conference matchups. They also are a far betting free throw shooting team than TCU.
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Mar 20, 2019
Rockets vs Grizzlies
Grizzlies
+4 -109 at GTBets
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium
Great spot for the Grizzlies here. Memphis is playing well at home covering nine of its last 11 at FedEx Forum and draw the Rockets carrying a heavy rating and in a look-ahead spot.  This marks the Rockets' fourth game in six days and second in two days. Houston took care of Atlanta, 121-105, as 7 1/2-point road favorites on Tuesday. Following this game, the Rockets host the Spurs on Friday. Houston leads San Antonio by three games in the Southwest Division. A loss to the Spurs in that matchup obviously would tighten up the division.  Houston already is holding out Eric Gordon against the Grizzlies for rest purposes. Perhaps the Rockets might even sit James Harden and Chris Paul, too.  Unlike the Rockets, the Grizzlies are fully rested. They have been idle the past three days. Memphis hasn't lost by more than six points at home during the past 11 times.  
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Mar 20, 2019
Wizards vs Bulls
Wizards
-2 -113 at betonline
Lost
$113.0
Play Type: Top Premium
The youthful Bulls may not be fully focused for this home matchup as they just concluded three games on the West Coast with a 116-101 win against the Suns on Monday.  Motivation shouldn't be a problem for the Wizards. They are in must-win mode trailing the Heat by 4 1/2 games for the final playoff spot in the East.  The Wizards are a respectable 8-10 since trading Otto Porter to the Bulls for Jabari Parker and Bobby Portis. Porter has done well with the Bulls, but sat out Chicago's victory against Phoenix with a sore shoulder. Zach LaVine, the Bulls' best player, has been gutting things out with a thigh and knee injury. There are no guarantees Porter and LaVine play against the Wizards. Washington handled the Bulls, 134-125, at Chicago last month. The Wizards have covered seven of the past eight times when meeting a sub .500 opponent. 
  
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Mar 20, 2019
Heat vs Spurs
Heat
+6½ -105 at betonline
Won
$100
Play Type: Free
San Antonio is playing its best basketball winning nine games in a row. DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge are each playing at very high levels.  So is there any reason to step in against the Spurs?  In this case, yes. The Spurs are in a sandwich spot off a huge home win against the Warriors this past Monday and taking on the Rockets on Friday.  The Heat are at least a tier below the Spurs. But they are playing well, too, going 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS. The Heat rank No. 3 in the NBA defensively, hold a point guard advantage with Goran Dragic back healthy and have been at their best on the road where they have covered 73 percent of their past 26 away contests. 
PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Mar 21, 2019
Coyotes vs Panthers
Coyotes
+116 at pinnacle
Play Type: Premium
The Coyotes are better than the Panthers and have been in Florida the past few days after losing, 4-1, to the Lightning on Monday. Prior to that defeat, the Coyotes had won nine of their last 12 games. They are 10-3 the past 13 times meeting a sub .500 opponent.   This isn't a good spot for Florida. The Panthers just got done playing four consecutive road games. This is their first home game in a week. 
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 21, 2019
Florida vs Nevada
Nevada
-2 -109 at GTBets
Play Type: Top Premium
Nevada has far more talent and experience than Florida. The Gators are lucky to have made the Tournament given that they have 15 losses.  The Wolf Pack paid their dues last season. They reached the Sweet 16 and have all their key pieces back. I consider Eric Musselman one of the top coaches in the nation.  The spread is lower than I thought. One reason for this could be Nevada getting upset, 65-56, as 10 1/2-point favorites against San Diego State in the semifinals Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Wolf Pack are much better than that. They were missing their second leading scorer and top rebounder, Jordan Caroline, in that game. Carolina is expected to play here. Nevada is 19-6-1 ATS following a loss. 
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 21, 2019
Bradley vs Michigan State
Michigan State
-18 -110 at Mirage
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium
Tom Izzo isn't happy Michigan State didn't get a No. 1 seed. So some team is going to pay the price. That team is Bradley, a a typical Missouri Valley Conference squad that can play defense but can't score.  The Braves rank 311th in scoring averaging 66.6 points. They are not a high percentage shooting team, nor good at making free throws. The Braves averaged 57 points in their three Missouri Valley Conference Tournament games.  Michigan State is used to this type of opponent being in the Big Ten except its competition is far stronger. The Spartans' last four opponents have been Michigan twice, Wisconsin and Ohio State. Bradley is a major step down.  The Braves aren't going to be able to keep up with Michigan State's superstar guard Cassius Winston and have no backdoor capabilities when trailing by double-digits. Bradley also doesn't have any tournament pedigree like Michigan State. The Braves have lost 17 straight games to Top 25 opponents. They last played in the NCAA Tournament in 2006. 
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 21, 2019
Murray State vs Marquette
Marquette
-3 -117 at BMaker
Lost
$117.0
Play Type: Premium
I'm going to fade the line move here. Marquette isn't getting enough respect from the marketplace while Murray State is getting too much. The Racers have Ja Morant and little else. Marquette has its own superstar, Markus Howard, and a far superior supporting case. Howard has been dealing with a wrist injury, but is fine.  The Golden Eagles get check marks across the board against Murray State - better defense, stronger rebounding team and superior from the foul line. 
SERVICE BIO

Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons.