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Stephen Nover |
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I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst. |
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Sep 20, 2023 Blue Jays vs Yankees |
Blue Jays -120 at Mirage |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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At this late juncture of the season we know who the Yankees are: A .500 team. Actually New York is 76-75. Mediocre is a fitting description. The Blue Jays are the more motivated team being in the playoff hunt. They've won four in a row following a three-game sweep of the Red Sox with a 7-1 victory against the Yankees last night. I find this price low to back the superior Blue Jays with their ace, Kevin Gausman, on the mound. Gausman isn't having a great year, but he's been solid. He has a career 3.28 ERA versus the Yankees in 29 appearances, including 23 starts. Converted reliever Michael King draws the start for New York. He's pitched well, but hasn't exceeded five innings all season. King entering the rotation thins the Yankees' bullpen. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Sep 20, 2023 Rockies vs Padres |
Padres -1½ -125 at YouWager |
Lost $125.0 |
| Play Type: Free | ||
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Now that the pressure is off the Padres are winning. San Diego has won a season-high six in a row. San Diego is set up for success at home again playing a terrible, rebuilding Rockies team that is 56-95. Colorado was nearly no-hit last night. The Rockies are playing a bunch of young players who are better fielders than hitters. Colorado is batting .230 on the road. The Rockies rank second-to-last in slugging percentage and on-base percentage away from Coors Field. The pitching matchup is journeyman Chase Anderson, who is 0-5 with a 6.00 ERA, versus Seth Lugo, who is 7-7 with a 3.83 ERA. Lugo has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts. He is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA in 14 innings against Colorado this season. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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WNBA | Sep 20, 2023 Sun vs Lynx |
Sun -5 -110 at William Hill |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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Good job by Minnesota taking this WNBA playoff series to a deciding third game. The Lynx are home, but should be bigger underdogs than this. Connecticut is a much better team than Minnesota. The Suns showed that in Game 1 winning by 30 points. The Lynx, though, pulled out an 82-75 win this past Sunday to even the series. Now the Lynx have the Sun's full attention. Connecticut led the WNBA in defense and had the fourth-highest scoring offense. Alyssa Thomas is a strong MVP candidate. She's like the Oscar Robertson of the WNBA with her ability to record triple-double games. Minnesota ranked ninth in scoring and was second-to-last on defense. Trends favor Connecticut, too. The Sun are 4-0 ATS the past four times following a loss and are 15-5-1 the last 21 games when playing on two days rest. The Lynx are 2-5 ATS the last seven times after covering and are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing with two days rest. |
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| PICKS IN PROGRESS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Sep 21, 2023 Mets vs Phillies |
OVER 8½ -115 | |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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David Peterson pitches bad on the road. Ranger Suarez is lousy at home. Both teams have been consistently scoring at better than a 5-run per game pace. The game is at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. So I see no reason for each team not to score at least four runs apiece. Peterson is 1-6 with a 7.42 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in 10 road starts. He has a 5.53 career ERA in six starts against the Phillies. Philadelphia is averaging 5.5 runs per game during its last dozen games. Suarez is 0-3 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 10 home starts. He's never beaten the Mets in five career starts against them posting a 3.91 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. The Mets are averaging 5.6 runs in their last nine games. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Sep 21, 2023 Georgia State vs Coastal Carolina |
Georgia State +7 -108 at linepros |
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| Play Type: Premium | ||
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The oddsmaker may know the Power-5 conferences well, but he got this Sun Belt Conference matchup wrong. Coastal Carolina should not be nearly as high as a TD favorite against Georgia State. I downgraded Coastal Carolina with the coaching change from respected Jamey Chadwell to first-year head man Tim Beck. The Chanticleers have had one of the better QB's in the league with Grayson McCall. But so far McCall hasn't been playing as well as he has in the past. He's been picked off twice and sacked seven times. Coastal Carolina is one-dimensional averaging an unimpressive 3.8 yards on the ground. Georgia State thrives on turnovers and is strong at quarterback and running back. The Panthers are 3-0. They've averaged more than two takeaways per game during their last 15 games and have already forced seven turnovers this season. Panthers QB Darren Grainger has a 6-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio while completing 73.4 percent of his passes. Grainger and stud running back Marcus Carroll have combined to rush for 574 yards and nine rushing touchdowns. Coastal Carolina ranks 111th in run defense allowing 174 yards on the ground per game. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NFL | Sep 21, 2023 Giants vs 49ers |
49ers -9½ -112 at BetVegas |
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| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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Through the first six quarters of their season, the Giants were outscored, 60-0. They regrouped to pull out a 31-28 victory against the Cardinals - the worst team in the NFL. Scoring 31 points in the second half to pull out that road victory in the Arizona desert has to take a lot out of the Giants both physically and mentally. They lost their superstar running back, Saquan Barkley, to an ankle injury, too, in that win. The NFL did the Giants no favor by making them the road team for a Thursday game against the 49ers, who are one of the three-best teams in the NFL. I don't see how the Giants can stay within single-digits of the 49ers given the short-week circumstances and the quality of the defenses. Brock Purdy is 10-0 in games he has started and finished for the 49ers. The Giants surrendered four TD's and nearly 400 yards to the pop-gun offense of the Cardinals. Now they go from Joshua Dobbs and his cast of grunts to Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk backed by a real coaching staff. Daniel Jones needs weapons to be successful. He won't have his main one, Barkley. His wide receivers don't frighten anyone least of all the 49ers. This one isn't going to be close. |
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SERVICE BIO |
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Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons. |
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