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Stephen Nover |
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I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst. |
| FREE PICKS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
| NFL | Sep 15, 2019 Chargers vs. Lions |
Chargers -114 at PINNACLE |
in 3h |
| Don't overthink this game. The Chargers are at least two levels higher than the Lions. They were the best road spread team last season, too. The Chargers are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS as road chalk the last two years since Anthony Lynn became head coach. Los Angeles has covered seven of its past eight road games. Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson have proven more than capable of replacing holdout Melvin Gordon. The Chargers averaged six yards per rush opening week. I would take Philip Rivers over Matthew Stafford, too. Those downgrading the Chargers here point out LA will be without its best offensive lineman with left tackle Russell Okung out. But Detroit offensive left tackle Taylor Decker, who protects Stafford's blind side, gave up two sacks last week and is dealing with a back injury. Joey Bosa gives the Chargers the best pass rusher on the field. The Chargers are one of the few complete teams in the NFL without any discernible weakness. The Lions have many warts, including a vulnerable secondary, bad head coach and a horrendous 4-12 ATS record when meeting above .500 opponents. (Editor's note: Stephen Nover is one of the top NFL 'cappers in North America with 23 of 25 winning NFL seasons and a sizzling 33-11-2 record on his past 46 premium/free NFL plays. Stephen loves the Week 2 NFL card with five Sunday premium plays in addition to this free selection.) | ||
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Sep 14, 2019 Southern Miss vs Troy |
OVER 49 -107 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| Troy has a strong offense. Southern Mississippi's defense is down from a year ago. The Golden Eagles are more experienced offensively this season and QB Jack Abrahma is a high percentage quarterback. The Over has cashed in seven of Troy's last nine games. The Over also has won at a 70 percent rate during the Trojans' last 57 nonconference games. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Sep 14, 2019 Miami-OH vs Cincinnati |
UNDER 49½ -109 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Pit a rivalry matchup of two running teams who each play at a slow pace and the result should be Under the total. That's what we have in a matchup of Miami of Ohio versus Cincinnati. Both teams run the ball more than 60 percent of the time. The RedHawks have a struggling offense that has injuries and a true freshman as their starting quarterback. They rank 117th in yards. Cincinnati plays at a slower tempo than even Miami of Ohio. The Bearcats are very strong defensively and stepping completely down in class having just met Ohio State. There should be extra intensity for this nonconference matchup. The two teams face each other every year for the Victory Bell. The schools only are about 45 miles apart in southwest Ohio. The average combined total during the past three matchups is 35.3 points. The Under has cashed in eight of the last 10 meetings. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Sep 14, 2019 Maryland vs Temple |
Temple +7½ -115 at Bovada |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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Maryland is being overrated in this spot following blowout victories against Howard, an FCS bottom feeder, and Syracuse. Both of those easy wins came at home. The Terrapins now hit the road to play a very physical, rested and well-coached opponent. The Owls had a bye last week giving them two weeks to prepare for this nonconference matchup. Temple is averaging just a shade below nine wins per year during the past four seasons. Temple's offense looked good in its opener, a 56-12 romp over Bucknell at home. The Owls may have the best secondary in the American Athletic Conference. The Owls are strong at linebacker, too. They have their top seven tacklers from last season all back. The Owls have covered 11 of the last 14 times they've been home 'dogs winning six of those games outright. A similar situational spot happened last year when the teams met in Week 3. Maryland played Temple that week sporting a 2-0 mark, with one of those victories being an impressive upset win against Texas. The game was at Maryland. Temple won, 35-14. The Owls outgained the Terps by 234 yards. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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CFL | Sep 14, 2019 Hamilton vs Calgary |
Hamilton +7 -105 at pinnacle |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| Hamilton is 9-2, but not getting enough respect here especially considering the spot. The Tiger-Cats are coming off a bye while drawing Calgary off consecutive victories against arch rival Edmonton. The Stampeders have covered only once in six games when favored this season. The teams met in Week 5 and the Tiger-Cats won, 30-23, at home. Hamilton QB Dane Evans is coming off his finest game. The Tiger-Cats are 4-1 since Evans replaced injured Jeremiah Masoli. The Tiger-Cats haven't lost by more than seven points all year. Hamilton has held their last three opponents to an average of 14.6 points a game. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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CFL | Sep 14, 2019 Montreal vs Saskatchewan |
Montreal +7½ -120 at 1BetVegas |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Montreal has been a nice surprise this season. The Alouettes are back on track winning their past three games. They have been receiving excellent skill position play from QB Vernon Adams Jr., who is 6-2 as a starter this season. William Stanback and Jeremiah Johnson have become one of the better running back tandems in the CFL. The Alouettes have proven to be road warriors covering 10 of their last 13 away contests. Saskatchewan has failed to cover during its past five September games. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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CFL | Sep 14, 2019 Montreal vs Saskatchewan |
UNDER 51 -110 |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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These same two teams met on Aug. 9 in Montreal. Saskatchewan won, 17-10. There were just 372 combined yards of offense in that game. It marked the sixth time during the past seven meetings in this series that the Under won. I see another low-scoring matchup here. The improved Alouettes have held five of their last seven foes to 22 points or fewer. The Under has cashed in 11 of Montreal's last 16 away games. The Roughriders have yielded fewer than 20 points per game during five of their last six games. If you discount a 40-point performance against Ottawa, the Roughriders are averaging only 17.5 points in their last four games. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Sep 14, 2019 Texas State vs SMU |
OVER 58 -110 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Sonny Dykes is one of my least favorite college coaches. But you know with Dykes you're going to get a lot of passing, fast pace and not much defense even if some talent is there. SMU is averaging 43 points, while surrendering 28.5 points. Mustangs QB Shane Buechele is doing a good job operating Dykes' up-tempo attack and has two excellent receivers in James Proche and Reggie Roberson Jr. The gem about going above this total, though, is Texas State being well below the radar as far as having a good offense. The Bobcats have managed just 21 points in two games taking on Texas A&M on the road and Wyoming. They were the lowest-scoring team in the Sun Belt Conference last year. However, the Bobcats have brought in a pair of excellent offensive minds this season - head coach Jake Spavital and offensive coordinator Bob Stitt. They like an up-tempo style, too. The Bobcats had 444 yards against Wyoming, but were hurt by three turnovers. QB Gresch Jensen threw 54 passes against the Cowboys picking up nearly 400 yards through the air. |
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SERVICE BIO |
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Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons. |
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