Jim Feist

I like Detroit's chances to win on Tuesday for two primary reasons: they receive a solid pitching matchup and they come into Tuesday as a team we already know can compete with other quality teams on the road. Detroit’s probable starter Casey Mize squares off against Atlanta’s probable starter Martín Perez, and the pitching matchup isn’t as lopsided as you might think. Mize comes in at 2-1 with a 2.51 ERA and 32 strikeouts against 8 walks. Perez also has 1 loss but owns a 2.70 ERA with 14 strikeouts against 5 walks on the season. Detroit has a real opportunity to control the game early if Mize continues to pitch as he has been.

This all starts with Mize himself. Detroit previews out there highlight him as one of the more consistent starters we’ve seen so far this season, which will be key against Atlanta in a road interleague matchup where limiting early damage is key. Mize has also already faced Atlanta late last season, and was able to keep their offense at bay. Granted, Atlanta’s roster has turned over some this offseason, but at least he has experience facing this team’s hitters.

Detroit also just happens to be playing well as a whole. The Tigers came into this series sitting at the top of the AL Central for a reason. Sure they lost two of three in Cincinnati, but before that series they took two of three in Milwaukee. The Tigers have looked like a complete team that possesses enough pitching and can manufacture timely offense to stay in games. Detroit is not some puny away from hitting home against Atlanta. This is a first place team getting an arguably favorable pitching matchup on the road.

For Detroit to win, Mize will need to either match or outpitch Pérez while Detroit manages to scratch together enough offense against a left-handed pitcher and keep the game close into the middle innings. Atlanta is still the better team overall with a 20-9 record compared to Detroit’s 12-15, but Detroit does not need to have the better roster for 162 games, just one and happen to knock some pitches to keep the game close. With Mize on the hill and proven ability to compete on this road trip, Detroit is very much alive in this game on Tuesday in Atlanta.

Jim's Play : 979. Tigers

Milwaukee seems to have the stronger side of the starting pitching battle heading into Tuesday, so they already have a fair bit of case for winning. MLB’s probable pitchers page lists Chad Patrick as Milwaukee’s starter while Arizona has no starter listed (displaying TBD) for this series opener at American Family Field. Patrick is currently 1-1 with a 2.35 ERA, and having the more official, proven starter is a nice advantage to have in a series opener.

Milwaukee also gets the bounce-back and home-field factors working in their favor. The Brewers sit at 14-13 and just broke a four-game losing streak by pounding Pittsburgh 5-0, while Arizona comes into this series at 15-12 after going just 2-2 in a high-scoring series against San Diego in Mexico City. 

Lastly, Patrick does not even have to pitch excellently for Milwaukee to have a good chance in this series opener. Milwaukee’s offense did show Tuesday that they can still score runs with solid pitching and timely hitting, they just have not been torching offenses lately. Brew Crew Ball’s series preview against Arizona still had Milwaukee taking two out of three from Arizona despite recent offensive struggles, showing some faith in Milwaukee’s pitching and home-series matchup.

Put it all together and you get a pretty cut and dry case for Milwaukee: they have the known starter and Arizona does not, Milwaukee is at home, and they are riding high after a confidence-building shutout win. If Patrick can deliver Milwaukee another shutdown start early, Milwaukee has every right to think they can win Tuesday’s opener in what we will call an Action play today gainst Arizona. 

Jim's play: Milwaukee Brewers

Atlanta legitimately has a case to win here on Tuesday because we already saw the Hawks go toe-to-toe with New York in key moments throughout this series. It’s tied 2-2, and Atlanta won both games by one point. That tells you everything you need to know about whether or not the Hawks can execute down late — they already have against this team.

Yes, the Knicks are back home, but this series hasn’t exactly resembled your average 3-vs-6 affair.

What’s hurt New York throughout this series has been Atlanta’s perimeter pressure and guard play, and the Knicks still have yet to crack that code. Coverage of the series has largely centered around how New York got carved up at times defensively by Atlanta’s coverage schemes on Jalen Brunson. Traps. Ball-denial. Pushing him off the rhythm he likes to play his best basketball at. All of it came together for Atlanta at times to force Brunson into inefficient stretches and turnovers. Even reporting on the Knicks side said as much, pointing out Brunson is shooting just 37.2% through four games and how the Hawks defenders have made him work. If Atlanta can continue to force Brunson into giving up the ball, it gives the Hawks another opportunity to slow tempo down again.

Atlanta also enters this game possessing a legitimate confidence edge after we already saw them win in this building twice. Atlanta pushed New York throughout the entire series, and while Game 4 was a 114-98 Knicks win, New York was desperately searching for answers down 2-1 while facing elimination. Flip the script. We’re back at 2-2 in Game 5 now, and games like these often become about who’s more poised rather than who’s more talented. Atlanta proved it can win in crunch time against this Knicks team already.

Put simply: Atlanta’s best path to winning is what we’ve already seen for most of this series. Crowd Brunson, force New York’s offense to rely on one guy creating too much, and get another steady performance from their own backcourt late. If the Hawks can make this another close game in the fourth, they’ve already proven twice they can win the biggest possessions. And that’s why Atlanta is very much alive to win in New York on Tuesday.

Jim's Play: 569. Hawks

Why should you bet the Rays? Tampa Bay’s recent form gives them a considerable advantage heading into Wednesday’s finale, as they already own the series lead. Tampa Bay has won the first two contests in Cleveland — Tuesday’s contest went 1-0 — and has now won six straight overall to improve to 18-11. Cleveland has lost four straight and fallen to 15-16. Momentum is huge in a series finale on the road.

Tampa Bay also gets a fairly strong pitching matchup in Drew Rasmussen (2-0, 2.45 ERA) versus Gavin Williams (4-1, 3.28 ERA). Rasmussen has been Tampa Bay’s steady arm all season and fits a Rays win low-scoring, controlled game formula they’ve used to win the first two games.

Another reason to side with Tampa Bay? Pitching matchups just haven’t mattered against Cleveland’s lineup this series. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff dominated Cleveland’s offense on Tuesday, as Nick Martinez and the bullpen combined on a 1-0 shutout that allowed just four total hits after Tampa Bay already won Monday’s opener 3-2. Through two games against Cleveland this series, the Rays have limited Guardians to 2 total runs. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff is dominating this matchup.

This series has also formed a certain confidence around Tampa Bay. Jonathan Aranda is hitting RBI in three straight games. Ryan Vilade smashed the go-ahead hit Monday. And Tampa Bay’s bullpen has answered the call late in games to finish off Cleveland. Cleveland will roll former top prospect Travis Bazzana back into the lineup Wednesday after his suspension, but the Guardians will still need to actually figure out how to beat Tampa Bay’s pitching staff before they’re the safe bet.

Here’s the handicap on Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay is hotter, they’re already up 2-0 in the series, and they’re winning low-scoring games with exactly the type of pitching and timely hitting that should keep them rolling on the road. If Rasmussen can deliver another solid outing for Tampa Bay, they have a clear path to finishing off Cleveland on Wednesday.

Jim's Play: 917. Rays

The Yankees pitching gets into this Wednesday having played some excellent baseball over their last few contests, and especially after beating Texas in Arlington on Tuesday. New York won 3-2 on Tuesday to improve to 20-10 while Texas fell to 14-16. The Yankees also won 10 of 11 coming into Wednesday, so their current form alone gives them the edge in the handicap.

Momentum is another reason to like New York here. Tuesday’s game featured Cam Schlittler outpitching Jacob deGrom, more than enough power from Aaron Judge and Austin Wells, and a bullpen that answered the bell late. Whenever a team is winning close games against quality starters on the road, it tends to mean something about how well their pitching, defense, and late-game execution is working at the moment.

For Wednesday in particular, Yankees rookie Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz making his MLB debut while Texas is expected to counter with Nathan Eovaldi. The rookie factor obviously brings some uncertainty to the table, but that doesn’t completely wash out New York’s value here because Texas is not getting a guy that profiles as a huge matchup advantage on the mound. Eovaldi sports a 5.79 ERA entering Wednesday and several previews have mentioned that he has already allowed 9 homers in just 32.2 innings, a tough profile to stomach against a Yankees lineup that is still finding ways to barrel the ball with Judge and receive timely contributions from the rest of the lineup.

Finally, there’s just something to be said about the Yankees as a whole in this spot. New York is looking to go out and close a near-flawless road trip on Wednesday, and they also just created roster flexibility to continue giving opportunities to Jasson Domínguez while Giancarlo Stanton sits on the injured list. The lineup has seen some shuffling during this road trip, but New York has continued to win because the offense has still been solid and the pitching has shouldered its fair share of the workload.

All signs point toward taking the Yankees here. They’re the hotter team, beat Texas just one day ago, and the Rangers are countering with a starter whose current statistics do not look good against New York’s power bats. 

Jim's Play: 921. Yankees 

The Dodgers have a solid case to cover the run line Wednesday because the pitching matchup is strong enough to create separation if Los Angeles gets even a normal offensive game. The listed starters are Tyler Glasnow for Los Angeles and Sandy Alcantara for Miami, and while Alcantara is still dangerous, Glasnow has been sharper so far at 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.70 WHIP, with 38 strikeouts entering the game. 

A big reason to like the Dodgers on the run line is the bounce-back angle after Tuesday’s 2-1 loss. Los Angeles got a strong outing from Shohei Ohtani but almost no offensive support, scoring just once despite seven hits. That kind of loss often sets up well for a favorite in the series finale, especially one that still has the better overall lineup and now hands the ball to another frontline arm in Glasnow.

Glasnow also gives Los Angeles the kind of swing-and-miss edge that can keep Miami from hanging around. Glasnow is near the top of the slate for April 29, and the available previews consistently place him among the strongest starters going Wednesday. If he controls the first six innings, the Dodgers only need a modest offensive rebound to get into multi-run-win territory.

There is also a practical lineup angle here. Tuesday’s loss came with Ohtani not in the batting order, something Dodgers coverage explicitly noted before Wednesday’s game. If Los Angeles gets closer to a normal offensive setup in the finale, that alone improves the chance of stretching a close lead into a two-run margin or better.

So the handicap is pretty simple: this is Miami, not the old “Florida Marlins,” and the case for Los Angeles is better starter, better overall team, and a natural bounce-back spot after wasting a quality outing Tuesday. If Glasnow pitches to form and the Dodgers’ bats wake up even a little, Los Angeles has a very reasonable path to winning by 2 runs or more on Wednesday.

Jim's Play: 902. Dodgers -1.5 Runs