Jim Feist

The Mets have a legitimate opportunity to knock off the Pittsburgh Pirates Friday as they come in with both a hotter offense and a young starter who has demonstrated the ability to pitch well enough to keep his team in the game.

New York heads into Friday on a three-game winning streak, including a sweep of Cleveland that was highlighted by a 13-6 win Thursday. New York tallied 18 hits in that game, highlighted by a homer from Francisco Lindor and offensive contributions from Marcus Semien, Luis Robert Jr., Carson Benge and Luis Torrens. New York should be able to continue that kind of production against a Pittsburgh team that just lost three out of four to the Milwaukee Brewers.

Thornton is a 24-year-old left-hander who has flashed excellent command and run prevention ability during his first taste of major-league action. Mlodzinski, who the Pirates are starting on Friday, has pitched well this season but has bounced around between starting and relieving roles. Expect this pitching matchup to be closer than Pittsburgh’s implied price may indicate.

The Mets younger lineup has been loose at the plate, finding ways to produce runs and get contributions from the whole lineup. Pittsburgh has not been able to do that, which is why they have struggled to find any momentum.

As long as Thornton can give the Mets five competitive innings, their improving offense should get enough opportunities to take control of this game against Mlodzinski and the Pirates bullpen.

Jim's Play: 901. Mets

I will be looking at the Cleveland Guardians to win on Friday against the Chicago White Sox, as the starting-pitching matchup alone tilts the game in Cleveland’s direction.

Guardians starter Parker Messick has been fantastic this season at 8-6 with a 2.57 ERA. The peripherals back up that ERA as well, as Messick owns a 3.09 xERA and 17.6% strikeout-minus-walk rate. Schultz has struggled mightily with a 5.82 ERA and 5.67 xERA, so there’s a massive disparity between these two pitchers for the first five or six innings at least.

Plus, Cleveland has some hitters who are swinging a hot bat lately. Steven Kwan is riding a six-game hitting streak and is hitting .359 over his last 10 games, while Chase DeLauter is the club leader with 102 hits and owns a .279 batting average. DeLauter and Kwan can work out traffic early in the lineup to give José Ramírez opportunities to drive them in.

Cleveland has dominated head-to-head meetings against Chicago, too. The Guardians have won three of four games between these two teams in 2023 and had won three consecutive by one-run margins before Chicago evened the series recently.

If Messick pitches anywhere near his season numbers and Cleveland can get into the White Sox bullpen with a lead, the Guardians have the advantage in this one.

Jim's Play: 915. Guardians 

The Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers have a good chance to stay UNDER Friday because both teams are sending capable starters to the mound and neither offense has been especially consistent.

Baltimore starts Shane Baz, who enters with a 3.86 ERA, while Texas counters with Nathan Eovaldi, who owns a 4.31 ERA. Baz has the better season ERA, and Eovaldi still has the command and experience to work deep into games when he avoids the long ball.

Texas has also struggled to consistently separate itself offensively, while Baltimore’s lineup has several key hitters batting in the low-.200s, including Gunnar Henderson and Coby Mayo.

Globe Life Field also removes weather as a major offensive variable, making this more about pitcher execution and bullpen work than wind or heat. If Baz and Eovaldi each give their clubs six competitive innings, there may not be enough scoring chances for this game to reach eight runs.

Jim's Play: 911. Orioles/Rangers UNDER 

The Mystics should cover the spread here on Friday against the Atlanta Dream because they are playing their best basketball of the season and have the defensive profile to keep this game relatively close.

Washington is on a five-game winning streak and rode a comeback from down 20 points to defeat Dallas 96-92 on Wednesday. Shakira Austin poured in 27 points and 13 rebounds while Cotie McMahon had a season-high 18 points. That win proved that the Mystics have confidence right now and can get production from various places in the rotation.

Defensively is where this matchup really favors Washington. The Mystics allow just 83.1 points per game (second-best in the WNBA) and rank third in defensive rating. The team also plays at one of the slowest paces, making that six-point cushion against Atlanta all the more valuable. Atlanta does have a much higher offensive efficiency, scoring 89.3 points per game, but the Dream just got blown up by Las Vegas, 109-87, as they went just 6-of-26 from three-point range.

Washington’s ability to protect the paint and force teams to work for shots gives me reason to believe that it can limit Atlanta’s offense. Granted, Atlanta will probably find a way to score more than 83 points, but keeping them under their season average with +6 points should be enough to cover.

With momentum and six points at home, Washington feels like a spot where they can hang tight for three quarters and make a run to cover the spread.

Jim's Play: 618. Was Mystics 

Golden State should be favored to beat the Dallas Wings on Friday because they have the better record, play better defense and have already demonstrated they can win this matchup. Yet, we find the Valkyries around a pick to 1-point favorite at Dallas. 

The teams enter Friday’s game with Golden State at 21-9 and Dallas at 19-12. The Valkyries have been among the WNBA’s elite defensive teams this season, holding opponents to just 42.2% shooting from the floor, which ranks best in the league. That defense will be key in slowing down a Dallas offense that is one of the league’s best but tends to over-rely on outside shooting.

Golden State has also already beaten Dallas this season, winning 91-80 on June 17. The Valkyries jumped out to a 12-point lead early only to have Dallas run away with the game until the second quarter when Golden State outscored Dallas 27-7. Gabby Williams scored 25 points and Golden State shot 48% from three, showing they have enough offense to keep up with Dallas if the game is close quarter-by-quarter.

Golden State is also riding momentum while Dallas seems to have faded late. The Valkyries just beat Toronto 92-81 while Dallas inexplicably let slip a 20-point lead and lost 96-92 to Washington. It’s not likely Dallas will be able to right that ship quickly enough to beat a Golden State team that has been far more consistent at closing out games.

 With Golden State having the defensive advantage, better record and already possessing a head-to-head win against Dallas, there’s value in backing the Valkyries to win straight-up here on Friday.

JIm's Play: 619. Valkyries