Jim Feist

Cleveland has every reason to win this game. The Guardians have won the first two games of this series, defeated Detroit 3-1 on Saturday and are 11-1 in their last 12 against the Tigers overall. Sunday’ss probable starters are Gavin Williams for Cleveland and Casey Mize for Detroit. Williams is 9-3 with a 3.32 ERA and 99 strikeouts on the season, whereas Mize is just returning from the IL and is currently 2-3 with a 2.27 ERA and 49 strikeouts. Cleveland also has home-field advantage at Progressive Field where they’ve dominated this series so far.

The best baseball reason to trust the Guardians is that Williams has a much clearer track to six quality innings while Detroit is simply hoping Mize’s groin injury won’t impact him on the road against a team they just can’t seem to solve. Cleveland didn’t have Jose Ramirez on Saturday and was still able to beat Detroit on pitching and timely hitting. Cleveland scored a key run in the first inning off a Daniel Schneemann homer and kept Detroit to just one run while the Tigers racked up nine hits. Cleveland did not have to crush Detroit offensively to pick up this win and if Williams pitches to his standards and Cleveland continues to make the Tigers pay when they do make mistakes, they’re in position to close out the series.

Jim's Play: 914. Guardians

The strongest argument for the Dream- Tempo pushing under the total on Sunday is that the number, sitting somewhere in the low 170s, is a bit inflated based on the season scoring averages of both teams. If you look closer at how each team has played recently though, the games have trended toward lower totals. Atlanta gives up 81.0 points per game to Toronto’s 88.8, which should allow the Dream to have the defensive advantage in this game. Atlanta also will be without Brionna Jones while Toronto will be without Kiki Rice and has Nyara Sabally questionable, so there could be some scoring punch taken away from both frontcourts.

When looking at recent games for both teams, Atlanta defeated Chicago 82-75 on Saturday, which went under the 165 total. Toronto lost to Washington 86-85 on Friday night which went over the total, but the combined score of 171 isn’t terribly overwhelming. Washington is scoring 88.1 points per game this season, so their offensive output is much different than what Toronto will bring onto the floor Sunday. Chicago on the other hand, scores just 79.9 points per game and held Atlanta to 75, so even though Atlanta did score 82 there’s recent precedent for keeping their scoring in check. Atlanta’s lone game to go over in their last four was an 104-90 loss to New York, which went way off the board at 194. However, that New York team is currently on a six-game win streak and made 16 threes in that game. Toronto isn’t New York, and this game has the makeup of one that stays under.

Jim's Play: Take: 641. Atlanta Dream / Toronto Tempo UNDER

Here's why Vegas actually is capable of winning Game 6: There is life here. This is not dead team walking territory. The Golden Knights are back home at T-Mobile Arena on Sunday with the series at 3-2 in favor of Carolina, and they already showed us in this Final they can beat Carolina in this building when they won Game 3 in double overtime. Vegas was also not completely crushed in Game 5. They got the first goal, got both goals from Pavel Dorofeyev, got two assists from Jack Eichel and John Tortorella was openly lobbying for Game 7 back in Raleigh after this series concluded, which syncs up with reporting that the room wasn’t panicking because they still had a calm veteran confidence built around a group that features 12 players who were on the 2023 Cup team. 

Experienced teams with recent championship experience matter in closeout games, especially against a Carolina team that now has the added pressure of closing Vegas out. Vegas also technically has the goalie edge with stability, strangely enough, because Tortorella is clearly and publicly standing by Carter Hart for the bounce-back effort while Carolina still has questions about their goaltending situation with Frederik Andersen becoming available after sitting out of Games 4 and 5 and Brandon Bussey having started the last two. 

The cleanest Vegas angle may simply be: Don’t take penalties after Carolina got two power-play goals from Andrei Svechnikov in Game 5, let Eichel drive the offense and trust that a battle-tested home team facing elimination will play tight enough defensively to at least force one more game. Not having William Karlsson hurts, but Vegas can lean on next-man-up in that department too. But this is a must-win situation for Vegas with championship experience on its side and there’s a very real path to one-goal win game plan for the Golden Knights.

Jim's Play: 22. Golden Knights (NHL Game of the Year)