Jim Feist

I'm going with the Kansas City Royals to win on Friday night. The starting-pitching matchup definitely gives the Royals the largest advantage in this spot. Kansas City will send Daniel Lynch IV to the hill against Jameson Taillon and the Blue Jays.

Lynch is currently sitting at 4-4 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.05 WHIP while Toronto counters with Taillon, who has gone 2-6 with a 5.68 ERA.

On top of his season numbers, Lynch has also been lights out at Kauffman Stadium this season. He has posted a 2.34 home ERA and has allowed just 21 hits across 34 2/3 innings pitched at home this season. He has even yet to allow a home run at Kauffman Stadium this year. Kansas City has eased his usage back since re-inserting him into the rotation, but the Royals have won each of his last three starts against Oakland, Detroit and Cleveland.

Toronto's biggest concern has to be Taillon, who has struggled mightily this season. Not only has he put up terrible numbers overall, but this will very likely be his first start since August 10 after landing on the injured list with right forearm tendinitis. Taillon has pitched to a 5.68 ERA and hasn't gone deeper than four innings in any of his last three starts. Toronto may have to lean heavily on its bullpen if Taillon struggles like he has in the past.

Kansas City's offense is also rounding into form again. After splitting their first two games against Miami, the Royals offense exploded for seven runs on Thursday night. Carter Jensen went yard and drove in three runs on three hits while Jac Caglianone had two hits and drove in two runs as well. That young lineup mixed in with Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino gives Kansas City enough bats to score some runs off of a pitcher coming off of an arm injury.

Kansas City was also one of the hottest teams in baseball heading into the Miami series, winning 12 of their last 13 games to end August. With Lynch starting at home and Taillon boasting both a 5.68 ERA and questionable workload, I like Kansas City’s chances to win this game on Friday.

Jim's Play: 924. Royals

I'll take the St. Louis Cardinals to win this matchup Friday night at Coors Field. The biggest advantage in my eyes is in the starting pitching matchup as St. Louis will send Andre Pallante to the mound to face Ryan Feltner. Feltner has been awful this season posting a 5.84 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Those are exactly the type of numbers that will lead to you getting lit up at Coors Field.

St. Louis should be able to capitalize on scoring chances against a Colorado pitching staff that has underperformed all season. Rockies pitchers rank dead last in MLB with a 5.42 team ERA. They own a 5.75 ERA at home and have allowed over six runs per game at Coors Field all season. The biggest weakness in their staff is their inability to strike guys out. They carry the lowest strikeout rate in MLB which plays right into the Cardinals hands as their lineup can make consistent contact and manufacture offense with gaps balls.

Cardinals also happen to be playing their best baseball of the season right now. They just went up to Los Angeles and took two out of three from the Dodgers.  They lost Thursday's game 3-2 on a walk-off hit in the bottom of the ninth by Teo Hernandez. St. Louis also owns a 36-33 record on the road compared to Colorado's 29-39 mark at home.

Another reason I like St. Louis is because Colorado simply has more to play for. The Cardinals still have a shot at a Wild Card birth in the National League. Colorado on the other hand comes in at 54-86 and has been eliminated from playoff contention for some time. I like St. Louis to score runs throughout this game as Feltner is prone to being lit up at Coors and the Rockies bullpen will likely have to work multiple innings in this hitter's paradise.

Jim's Play: 909. Cardinals

Friday's game has me taking Miami and Stanford OVER for several reasons. The biggest one is Miami's offensive ceiling. Miami adds Duke transfer QB Darian Mensah who threw 34 TD passes last season and will be surrounded by elite weapons like Malachi Toney and Mark Fletcher Jr. This passing attack gets a plus matchup against a Stanford defense that ranked 107th in EPA per pass last season.

Stanford should provide their fair share to get OVER as well. The Cardinals hung 37 points on Hawaii in Week 0 while averaging 6.8 yards per play. QB Davis Warren was efficient, and running back Micah Ford helped Stanford's rushing attack with three touchdowns. Miami has a ton of talent on defense, but the Hurricanes also have to replace multiple important pieces and return just 74th amount defensive production from last year.

I like explosive-play potential on both sides of the ball as well. Stanford gave up 20 fourth-quarter points to Hawaii last week, while Miami has speedsters everywhere to create chunk plays through the air and with Fletcher on the ground. If Miami reaches the mid-30s, Stanford only needs 14-17 points to reach the finish line.

Jim's Play: 153. Miami/Stanford OVER

I like Toledo plus the points against Michigan State on Friday. Toledo is getting almost a touchdown-and-a-half against a Michigan State team playing in its first game under new head coach Pat Fitzgerald. The Rockets have enough veteran talent and enough offensive firepower to keep this game close throughout most of the night. Toledo opens a new chapter under head coach Mike Jacobs, but Jacobs brings over from Mercer where his offense averaged 6.8 yards per play last season while throwing for over 3,800 yards. Junior quarterback John Alan Richter is poised for a breakout year after completing 17-of-25 passes with three touchdowns and one interception while seeing limited action in Toledo's offense last season. Toledo should also have some quarterback mobility available to take advantage of a Michigan State defense that will be seeing its offense for the first time all year.

I also like this number because Michigan State has its own question marks on offense. The Spartans finished 110th in the nation in rushing yards per game last season and 104th in yards per carry. Quarterback Alessio Milivojevic had his moments as a starter last year, throwing for 10 touchdowns and just three interceptions, but he has yet to prove himself against Big Ten defenses and will have to work with a new cast of receivers and install a new offensive system. That does not sound like a great recipe for laying close to double digits in week one.

Toledo loses some key pieces on defense but its foundation was loaded last season. The Rockets finished second in the nation in yards per game allowed, third in yards per play and fourth in scoring defense at just 13.3 points per game allowed. Even with some turnover this offseason, Toledo has developed an identity on defense that should keep Michigan State from dominating this game from start to finish.

Toledo also has strong historical implications as far spreads go. The Rockets were 10-3 against the spread last season and 2-0 against the number when catching 9.5 points or more. Michigan State was just 0-2 ATS when laying at least 9.5 points last season. The current line has Michigan State getting about nine and a half touchdowns.

Give me Michigan State to pull away late due to Big Ten size and home field advantage, but expecting the Spartans to cover double digits in their head coach’s debut is expecting too much.

Jim's Play: 149. Toledo

Pitching is by far my favorite reason to back Pittsburgh as Ashcraft will toe the rubber for the Pirates against Yusei Kikuchi. Braxton Ashcraft (14-5, 3.59 ERA) has been lights out all year whereas Kikuchi is just getting off the IL and has struggled mightily this season with a 0-5 record and a 5.65 ERA. Pittsburgh is 16-4 in Ashcraft's 20 starts as a moneyline favorite this season. In comparison, the Angels are just 1-5 when Kikuchi takes the mound as an underdog.

Ashcraft has actually been on fire lately allowing only five earned runs in his last 28 innings pitched. Over his last four starts he tossed a complete game three-hitter against Miami and seven scoreless plus eight innings against Detroit. Ashcraft posted a 2.13 ERA last month so he should help Pittsburgh limit another Angels team that hasn't shown it can hit against right-handed pitching.

The Angels will counter with Kikuchi who hasn't pitched in a month and is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA since returning from the injured list. Kikuchi also has a season ERA of 7.56 on the road which is simply dreadful. Pittsburgh's projected lineup has also mashed lefties this season posting a 105 wRC+ against southpaws and this projected lineup has a 128 wRC+ at home.

The Angels offense struggles are another huge reason for me to lay the run and a half. Los Angeles failed to muster more than one run on Friday losing 1-0 on four hits. The Angels have now lost four straight games and Pittsburgh has won five out of its last six. Getting Konnor Griffin back from the injured list only adds another speedy hitter with on-base ability to the top of the Pirates’ lineup.

I will lay the Run Line here on Saturday with the Bucs in what I fully expect to be a run away rout.

Jim's Play: 976. Pirates -1.5 Runs 

I'm taking the Blue Jays to win this one on Saturday. While the Max Scherzer-Seth Lugo starting matchup may seem like an iffy play for Toronto on paper considering Scherzer has a 6.16 ERA, you have to think his latest start was somewhat of a turning point. Scherzer held Seattle shut out for seven innings while allowing only one hit and striking out a season-high 10 batters in Toronto's 7-0 win.

On the other hand, Lugo has gone in the complete opposite direction as of late. He did have success against Toronto back on Aug. 25, surrendering one run over five innings, but he's been terrible otherwise. The right-hander has a 7.18 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over his last seven starts and Cleveland battered him for nine runs on nine hits in just 3 2/3 innings his most recent outing.

Toronto's lineup should also have a chip on their shoulder as they just faced Lugo less than two weeks ago. They should have a fresh eye on video when it comes to his pitch mix and game approach. The Blue Jays come into Saturday on a roll as they crushed Kansas City 9-2 on Friday night with contributions from across the lineup (Alejandro Kirk, Ernie Clement, George Springer, etc.). Toronto has now won six of its last seven contests.

Toronto getting back to .500 at 71-71 to stay within a half-game of the final AL Wild Card spot should also provide some motivation while Kansas City fell to 63-79 with their loss on Friday. This is must-win playoff-type mode for every game the Blue Jays play from here on out.

Kansas City does have some good bats in Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez, but if Scherzer pitches anywhere near how he did against Seattle, I like Toronto’s ceiling in this game much more. Plus, Lugo has been anything but dependable lately, so the Blue Jays have a chance to shorten this game by getting to the Kansas City bullpen early.

Jim's Play: 969. Blue Jays

I like Cubs-Marlins UNDER 8 runs on Saturday. The starting-pitching matchup of Javier Assad against Ryan Gusto gives this game a good chance to stay quiet through the first five or six innings. Assad enters 6-1 with a 3.46 ERA, while Gusto carries a 3.86 ERA. 

Gusto is the biggest reason I like the Under. He has quietly been pitching his best baseball of the season. Over his last three starts, he has allowed just one earned run in 14 innings, including 5/3 scoreless against Boston and four scoreless against Washington before allowing one run in the fifth. For August overall, Gusto posted just six earned runs across 28 1/3 innings.

Assad has also been effective when used for extended innings. He owns a 1.10 WHIP, and over his last six major-league appearances he allowed only four earned runs across 21 innings. His ability to limit baserunners is particularly useful against a Miami lineup that was held to one run and only three hits through six innings in Friday's 6-1 loss.

Friday's opener was also much lower scoring than the 6-1 final suggests for most of the night. It was only 1-0 through five innings, and Chicago broke the game open largely because Miami relievers issued four walks during the sixth and seventh innings. The starting pitchers combined to allow only one run through the first five. That is important because Saturday gives Miami another starter in Gusto who has been in excellent form.

Miami's lineup has been inconsistent, while Saturday afternoon at Loan Depot park removes the type of weather conditions that can suddenly turn a total into a slugfest. If Gusto can hold Chicago around three or four runs and Assad keeps Miami in the two-to-three range, eight runs becomes a difficult number to reach.

Jim's Play: 953. Cubs/Marlins UNDER

I like the Cleveland Guardians to beat the Detroit Tigers on Saturday, starting with a strong pitching advantage. Cleveland sends Parker Messick, who is 11-8 with a 2.46 ERA and 161 strikeouts, against Detroit's Framber Valdez, who enters 8-10 with a 4.36 ERA.

Messick has been especially sharp lately. He has allowed only six earned runs over his last five starts, and in his most recent outing he held Kansas City to one run over six innings in an 11-1 Cleveland win. He also faced Detroit on August 13 and allowed only two runs and three hits in 5 2/3 innings.

Valdez has been much less consistent. He gave up three runs over six innings against the Dodgers in his last start, but his recent stretch includes a 5.71 ERA over three starts, and Cleveland already scored four runs against him in 5 1/3 innings on August 12.

Momentum also favors Cleveland. The Guardians swept Friday's doubleheader against Detroit, winning 7-6 and 4-3, both in walk-off fashion. Cleveland is now 72-70, while Detroit has dropped to 64-77. The Guardians also entered this series having dominated the season matchup, and Detroit’s offense and bullpen have ranked near the bottom of MLB over the past month.

Cleveland also has much more at stake. The Guardians currently hold the final American League Wild Card position, while Detroit's postseason chances are fading. With Messick pitching at an elite level, Cleveland at home, and the Guardians carrying the momentum from Friday’s sweep, I like them to make it three straight over the Tigers.

Jim's Play: 964. Guardians 

I like Tennessee State +47.5 against Georgia on Saturday. There is obviously an enormous talent gap here, but once a spread gets close to seven touchdowns, the question becomes less about whether Georgia dominates and more about whether the Bulldogs have any incentive to keep scoring deep into the second half.

Tennessee State already has a game under its belt, losing 26-24 to Jackson State last week. The Tigers generated 354 total yards, including 265 through the air, which at least gives them a functioning passing game capable of producing a touchdown or a couple of scoring drives. That is important when you're catching nearly 50 points.

Georgia, meanwhile, is opening its season and will likely use this game to evaluate a large number of players. Kirby Smart has historically been willing to get starters out once these mismatches are under control rather than chasing a massive final margin. College Football News specifically noted that Georgia often doesn't play a full 60 minutes with its starters in games like this and pointed out that the Bulldogs were only up 14-3 at halftime against Austin Peay last season.

The Bulldogs also have several offensive details to sort through. Six of their top seven pass catchers from last season are gone, so even with Gunner Stockton returning, Georgia will be breaking in a new receiving rotation. That makes this feel more like a tune-up game than one in which the Bulldogs need to operate at maximum tempo for four quarters.

Georgia should win comfortably, but this is simply too many points for me to lay in a season opener against a Tennessee State team that has already played and showed it can move the football.

Jim's Play: 017 I like Tennessee State +47.5 against Georgia on Saturday. There is obviously an enormous talent gap here, but once a spread gets close to seven touchdowns, the question becomes less about whether Georgia dominates and more about whether the Bulldogs have any incentive to keep scoring deep into the second half.

Tennessee State already has a game under its belt, losing 26-24 to Jackson State last week. The Tigers generated 354 total yards, including 265 through the air, which at least gives them a functioning passing game capable of producing a touchdown or a couple of scoring drives. That is important when you're catching nearly 50 points.

Georgia, meanwhile, is opening its season and will likely use this game to evaluate a large number of players. Kirby Smart has historically been willing to get starters out once these mismatches are under control rather than chasing a massive final margin. College Football News specifically noted that Georgia often doesn't play a full 60 minutes with its starters in games like this and pointed out that the Bulldogs were only up 14-3 at halftime against Austin Peay last season.

The Bulldogs also have several offensive details to sort through. Six of their top seven pass catchers from last season are gone, so even with Gunner Stockton returning, Georgia will be breaking in a new receiving rotation. That makes this feel more like a tune-up game than one in which the Bulldogs need to operate at maximum tempo for four quarters.

Georgia should win comfortably, but this is simply too many points for me to lay in a season opener against a Tennessee State team that has already played and showed it can move the football.

Jim's Play: 017 Tennsssee State

This is technically an FCS-versus-Big Ten matchup, but South Dakota State isn't your normal FCS opponent. The Jackrabbits rank No. 2 in the FCS polls, have qualified for the playoffs in 14 consecutive seasons and won back-to-back national championships in 2022 and 2023.

South Dakota State also has a game under its belt and looked fantastic. The Jackrabbits blasted Stetson 70-7 while amassing 628 yards of total offense, 393 of which were on the ground. As a double-digit underdog, that rushing production is key because it allows SDSU to control the game clock, shorten the game and keep Northwestern's offense off the field.

Quarterback Chase Mason returns experience at the game's most important position. Mason was 8-1 as a starter last season while dealing with an injury limitation and passed for 15 touchdowns and ran for six. He opened the season by connecting on a 73-yard touchdown bomb on SDSU's very first offensive play against Stetson. This isn't an offense that will keep its foot on the gas all game long, but it can create enough explosive plays to hit the high teens or low 20's.

Northwestern is starting a new offensive system under Chip Kelly and has a new quarterback in Michigan State transfer Aidan Chiles. The potential is easy to see, but this is their first game together during the regular season. The Wildcats averaged just 23.4 points and 346.1 yards per game last season, which means laying nearly two touchdowns would have us believe their new offense will click right away.

Northwestern should be able to run the ball with Caleb Komolafe and their stacked backfield, but South Dakota State hasn't exactly been wilting against the run lately. This is a program that’s used to physical football in the Missouri Valley. This is a program built for line-of-scrimmage battles, playoff atmospheres and playing on the road against talented opponents. I could certainly see Northwestern wearing down the Jackrabbits as the game goes on, but I don’t believe the talent gap is great enough for nearly two touchdowns.

I wouldn't be totally surprised by a Jackrabbits outright win, but I'll take the generous points here on Saturday.

Jim's Play: 063 South Dakota State

Memphis opened the season with a 27-21 win at UNLV. The final score is a little deceiving because Memphis was outgained by the Rebels 460-418, ran 79 plays to Memphis' 60 and possessed the ball for over 35 minutes. Memphis converted just 3-of-11 third downs. When Memphis needed to make a play, they did so with six sacks. That being said, I like Arkansas State plus the points, especially now that the spread has moved higher for Arkansas State.

Memphis is a deserving favorite, but the number suggests that Arkansas State cannot win this game even if they play their best game of the season. I think Memphis is an improved team, but Arkansas State returns 10 starters (seven on offense) and 41 letter winners. The Red Wolves have gone to three straight bowl games and won their bowl game in each of the last two seasons under Butch Jones.

All three of those players mentioned above return as preseason first team All-Sun Belt. Receiver/returner Chauncy Cobb gives Arkansas State the best weapon for exploiting defenses because he'll provide the Red Wolves with short fields and give them a chance to make big plays with his return ability. Big plays on special teams are huge when you’re catching double digits.

For what it's worth, Memphis is still installing things with a roster that Charles Huff completely overhauled this offseason. They’ll get credit for winning in game one, but game two is a completely different challenge. Laying double digits in the heat of emotion against a seasoned team that knows you is a different ballgame entirely. Arkansas State has also faced Memphis 60 times so they will not scare easy based on opponent or atmosphere.

If anything, the market getting there should make Arkansas State even more attractive as the line has moved a couple of points in the Memphis direction.

Jim's Play: 215. Arkansas State (CFB Game of the Week)