Jim Feist

Home-field and starting pitching is the case for the Texas Rangers to win here on Monday night against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Texas returns to Globe Life Field with Nathan Eovaldi while Michael Soroka gets the call for Arizona. Texas has multiple edges including the more proven starter, the Rangers pitching at home and momentum from blanking the Cubs on consecutive days.

Texas gets one of the league’s best veterans on the bump Monday. Eovaldi’s ERA this season sits around 4.15, but his recent outings have been much better. Eovaldi has surrendered one run over his last two starts, both against the Yankees, while pitching 15 innings. We like Texas to control the early going with quality pitching from Eovaldi to prevent Arizona from feeling too comfortable.

The Rangers are also riding high after a 3-0 win over the Cubs on Sunday. That was their second consecutive shutout of a quality National League team. Jacob deGrom was dominant that day on the mound for Chicago while Evan Carter delivered some late insurance with a two-run homer. Texas should be able to ride that kind of series-ending success into Monday with an easier opponent at home.

Arizona will be dangerous, but the Diamondbacks are trending inconsistent. Soroka has been able to hang around with an ERA around league average at 4.14 and is 4-2 on the season. The problem is his WHIP sits at 1.43 which suggests runners are reaching against him. Runners become runs quickly in Arlington against a Rangers lineup headlined by Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Evan Carter and Josh Jung.

The key for Texas is getting five or six solid innings from Eovaldi and forcing Soroka to pitch from the stretch. If Texas can jump on Arizona early, they can create problems for an offense that has struggled with consistency the past week. Texas will not need a barrage of hits to win this game. One or two big innings filled with timely hitting and a long ball should be enough against Arizona.

Jim's Play: 912. Rangers

I look for the Giants to have a good shot as a big dog here on Monday because Dodgers starter Roki Sasaki has yet to put it together this season, posting a 5.97 ERA along with a 5.77 expected ERA and 6.83 FIP. He has also struggled mightily with command and home-run disasters, so San Francisco can manufacture early runs if they continue to be patient.

The Giants were forced to turn to Trevor McDonald because Logan Webb landed on the IL with right knee bursitis, but McDonald is more than just a veteran throwing outs there. In his last start against San Diego, McDonald allowed one run on five hits over seven innings while striking out eight and walking zero. That’s exactly what you want to see from your big underdog starter: A young pitcher with some swing-and-miss stuff, recent success and no expectation because his team is laying big underdog numbers at home.

Speaking of expectations, San Francisco only picked up their first series win of the month on Sunday, rallying past Pittsburgh 7-6 in 12 innings. Sometimes an emotional win like that can propel a struggling team into a short series where they can get back on track. Los Angeles just lost a home series to Atlanta and fell behind 7-2 on Sunday before their bats finally woke up.

This matchup all boils down to McDonald keeping the Dodgers from running up an early inning total. San Francisco hitters need to work deep counts against Sasaki, drive traffic and force him into mistakes. They haven’t had the most potent offense this season, but this game screams patience over raw power. As long as Sasaki’s command fails him again, the Giants can manufacture runs on the bases and in the bullpen.

Jim's Play: 901. Giants 

My Pistons-Cavaliers play on the total Monday begins with the series trend. Game 2 finished 107-97 and stayed mostly in half-court, grind-it-out playoff mode. That’s the type of tempo we should see again in Cleveland on Monday.

Detroit has taken control of the series 2-0, so Cleveland will be playing with a sense of desperation. And when teams get that way, they often play tighter on defense before they open up on offense.

Another reason I like Cleveland to tighten up: their offense has been streaky. Donovan Mitchell can score at will, but the Cavs have not had consistent creation outside of him. James Harden shot just 3-for-13 from the floor with four turnovers in Game 2. He has just three more made field goals than turnovers through two games. If Cleveland struggles to manufacture clean looks in the half court from Harden, it puts too much pressure on Mitchell and helps the under.

Don’t forget Detroit is not completely healthy either. Both Kevin Huerter and Caris LeVert are questionable to play on Monday, and their statuses are notable because both impact Detroit’s spacing and depth at the guard position. Huerter has yet to suit up for a game this semifinal, while LeVert is nursing a heel injury. If either player is sidelined or limited, it could force Detroit to lean even more on Cade Cunningham, Tobias Harris and slow down half-court offense.

Finally, we’re in the playoffs now. Cleveland has no choice but to come out with a physical defense Monday. The Cavs cannot fall behind 3-0, so they will be aggressive at the point of attack, look to run more deliberate offense, and do everything they can to prevent Detroit from getting out in transition. Detroit has done a solid job of closing games offensively, but they are not a team that needs to press and get up thousands of shots to win games. Cade Cunningham can control the game’s tempo, get his driver anywhere he wants on the floor, and run down the clock.

Both teams should aim to pound the ball inside and attack the basket. Defenses are probably going to play tighter than the public wants to believe they will, leading to long scoring droughts for both teams. If Cleveland defends better at home and Detroit’s role players struggle away from their home building like they usually do, I like the chance to stay under.

Jim's Play: 509. Pistons / Cavaliers UNDER