John Ryan

Brewers vs Pirates 
7-Unit bet on the Brewers priced as a 110-underdog. 

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 35-20 record good for 64% winners for a 33% ROI and a nice $20,600 profit for the Dime Bettor and a $1,030 profit for the casual $50 per game bettor. The requirements are: 

Bet on road teams priced between a –125 favorite and a 125 underdog. 

Our team is batting less than 0.250 for the season. 

Our team’s starter allowed no more than. Single run in this previous start. 

The opponent is from the NL and is a divisional foe. 

The opponent's starter has a sub-3.00 ERA. 

Marlins vs Angels 
5-Unit bet on the Angels priced as a –150 favorite. 

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 28-13 record (68%) averaging a 132 favorite bet resulting in a $13,820 profit and 30% ROI for the $1,000 per game bettor and a $691 profit for the $50 per game bettor over the past five seasons. The requirements are: Bet on home favorites priced between –105 and –170 on the money line. It is the first game of the series. The home team has scored three or more innings in each of their previous three games. The home team was on the road in their previous game. 

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 53-16 (77%) record averaging a –117-wager and resulting in a 44% ROI and a $40,070 profit for the $1,000-per-game bettor and a $2,003.50 profit for the $50.00 bettor. The requirements are: Bet on any team coming off a three-game sweep over a divisional rival. The game is an inter-league matchup. If the game occurs after the all-star break, these teams have produced a 30-12 (71.4%) record averaging a –117-favorite resulting in a highly profitable $20,530 profit for the $1,000 per game bettor and a $1,026.50 profit for the $50 per game bettor. 

Diamondbacks vs Cardinals 
7-Unit bet on the Cardinals priced as a 110-underdog. 

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 40-24 record good for 62% winners for a 39% ROI and a nice $32,700 profit for the Dime Bettor and a $1,630 profit for the casual $50 per game bettor. The requirements are:  

Bet on home dogs from +100 on up. 

Our starter has allowed 8 or fewer runs over his last five starts. 

Our starter has thrown 23 or more innings over his last five starts. 

Our team has committed no more than 1 error in each of their last 10 games. 

Cubs vs Reds 
7-unit bet on the Reds priced as a –105 favorite. 

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 61-37 record for 62% winning bets that have averaged a 110-underdog wager resulting in a 23% ROI and a $32,090 profit for the Dime Bettor and a $1,600profit for the $50 per game bettor. The requirements are: 

The game is past the 40th of the season. 

Our team has posted a ratio of 8 hits per one run scored over theri last two games. 

For the season they have posted a hit-to-run ratio of less than 2. 

Our team is coming off two road losses. 

If our team is playing at home, they have gone an incredible 14-2 for 88% winners averagig a –137 wager and a 65% ROI. 

Dodgers vs Mets 
7-Unit bet on the Dodgers priced as a –120 favorite.  

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 66-36 record for 65% winning bets that have averaged a –127 wager resulting in a 19% ROI and a $26,430 profit for the Dime Bettor and a $1,320 profit for the $50 per game bettor. The requirements are:  

Bet on road favorites priced up to –185 in the first game of a series.  

Our team is coming off a win.  

They are facing a non-divisional foe. 

Both teams have winning records. 

Phillies vs A’s 
7-unit bet on the Phillies priced as a –180 favorite. 

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 233-129 record for 64% winning bets that have averaged a –131 wager resulting in a 18% ROI and a $82,280 profit for the Dime Bettor and a $4,145 profit for the $50 per game bettor. The requirements are:  

Bet on road favorites priced up to –185 in the first game of a series.  

Our team is coming off a win.  

They are facing a non-divisional foe. 

If our team has a winning record and the opponent has a losing record has produced a 110-57 record that has averaged a –137 wager and a 20% ROI. 

Zack Wheeler 2025 Pitching Capsule: Phillies vs. Athletics (May 23, 2025) 

As the Philadelphia Phillies face the Oakland Athletics tonight at Citizens Bank Park, their ace, Zack Wheeler, takes the mound with a formidable 2025 campaign behind him. Wheeler, a perennial Cy Young contender, has been a cornerstone of the Phillies’ rotation, which leads MLB with 225 strikeouts through 35 games. His ability to dominate both right-handed (RH) and left-handed (LH) batters with a diverse pitch arsenal makes him a critical factor against an Athletics lineup struggling on the road. Below, we break down Wheeler’s 2025 performance, focusing on his pitch speeds, spin rates, and strikeout generation, providing a clear picture of what to expect in this matchup. 

2025 Season Overview 

Stats: 5-1 record, 2.67 ERA, 80 strikeouts, 12 walks, 64.0 IP, 0.89 WHIP, 11.25 K/9, 1.69 BB/9, 6.67 K/BB 

Context: Wheeler’s 80 strikeouts lead the National League, trailing only Cole Ragans (82) league-wide. His 33.2% strikeout rate is among the MLB’s elite, paired with a 4.9% walk rate (6th-best in baseball). He’s delivered quality starts in 8 of 10 outings, averaging 6.4 innings per start, and holds opponents to a .194/.235/.313 slash line against RH batters (.548 OPS, best in NL). 

Recent Form: Over his last six starts, Wheeler has posted a 1.82 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 52 strikeouts in 39.2 innings, with opponents hitting .177/.216/.305. His May 17 outing against Pittsburgh (6 IP, 0 R, 6 K, 13 whiffs) showcased his dominance, with a max fastball velocity of 98.8 mph. 

Pitch Arsenal: Speeds and Spin Rates 

Wheeler’s five-pitch repertoire—four-seam fastball, sinker, splitter, cutter, sweeper, and curveball—combines velocity, movement, and deception. Below are his 2025 pitch characteristics, based on data from May 11 vs. Cleveland and other sources: 

Four-Seam Fastball:  

Usage: 42%  

Speed: 95.5 mph (avg), peaking at 98.8 mph  

Spin Rate: ~2,400 rpm (above MLB average of ~2,300 rpm)  

Movement: 16 inches induced vertical break (IVB), 8 inches horizontal break (HB)  

Run Value: +6 (most effective pitch)  

Notes: Wheeler’s four-seamer is his primary weapon, generating 9 whiffs in his May 17 start and 3 strikeouts in his April 2 gem (10 K vs. Rockies). Its high velocity and spin make it tough to square up, especially for RH batters. 

Splitter:  

Usage: 12%  

Speed: 86.8 mph  

Spin Rate: ~1,400 rpm (typical for splitters, prioritizing drop over spin)  

Movement: 8 IVB, 12 HB  

Run Value: +5  

Notes: The splitter’s sharp drop has been a game-changer in 2025, with 3 strikeouts vs. Rockies and consistent whiffs (7 in May 6 vs. Rays). It’s particularly effective against LH batters, who struggle with its late movement. 

Sinker:  

Usage: 12%  

Speed: 94.5 mph  

Spin Rate: ~2,200 rpm  

Movement: 9 IVB, 13 HB  

Run Value: -6 (least effective pitch)  

Notes: Wheeler has reduced sinker usage due to a loss of drop (1 inch less than 2024), making it his weakest offering. It still induces groundballs (55.9% career rate) but has yielded fewer strikeouts. 

Cutter:  

Usage: 11%  

Speed: 91.7 mph  

Spin Rate: ~2,500 rpm  

Movement: 12 IVB, -4 HB  

Run Value: +1  

Notes: The cutter generates soft contact and occasional strikeouts (1 vs. Rockies). It’s used strategically against both RH and LH batters to disrupt timing. 

Sweeper:  

Usage: 13%  

Speed: 83.9 mph  

Spin Rate: ~2,600 rpm  

Movement: 7 IVB, -13 HB  

Notes: The sweeper’s sharp horizontal break makes it a swing-and-miss pitch, especially against RH batters (1 strikeout vs. Rockies). 

Curveball:  

Usage: 10%  

Speed: 80.8 mph  

Spin Rate: ~2,700 rpm  

Movement: -7 IVB, -12 HB  

Notes: The curveball complements the sweeper, generating 2 strikeouts vs. Rockies and consistent whiffs (27% whiff rate vs. Cleveland). 

Strikeout Generation: RH vs. LH Batters 

Wheeler’s 80 strikeouts in 2025 are evenly distributed across RH and LH batters, reflecting his versatility. His effectiveness against RH batters is particularly notable, holding them to a .548 OPS (best in NL). Below is a breakdown of which pitches drive his strikeouts: 

Against RH Batters:  

Primary Strikeout Pitches: Four-seam fastball, sweeper, curveball.  

Analysis: The four-seamer’s high velocity and spin (3 strikeouts vs. Rockies) overpower RH batters, who hit .194 against it. The sweeper’s lateral break (31% whiff rate in 2024) and curveball’s depth (2 strikeouts vs. Rockies) exploit RH batters’ tendencies to chase breaking balls. In his May 11 start vs. Cleveland, Wheeler’s sweeper and curveball combined for significant whiffs, contributing to 8 strikeouts.  

Key Stat: Wheeler’s 32.8% strikeout rate against RH batters ranks among the NL’s best, with only 4.9% walks. 

Against LH Batters:  

Primary Strikeout Pitches: Splitter, four-seam fastball, cutter.  

Analysis: The splitter’s sharp drop (3 strikeouts vs. Rockies, 7 whiffs vs. Rays) is Wheeler’s go-to out pitch against LH batters, who struggle to adjust to its movement. The four-seamer remains effective (3 strikeouts vs. Rockies), while the cutter (1 strikeout) disrupts LH batters’ timing. LH batters face a .260 wOBA against Wheeler, reflecting his ability to limit quality contact.  

Key Stat: Wheeler’s 66:9 K:BB ratio across 51 innings (as of May 6) highlights his control against LH batters, with 16 whiffs in his May 6 start. 

Matchup Outlook vs. Athletics 

Athletics’ Weaknesses: Oakland’s offense ranks among MLB’s worst on the road, with a .229 AVG and 3.8 runs/game (per 2025 team stats). Their 24.5% strikeout rate against RHP plays into Wheeler’s strengths. Key hitters like Brent Rooker (RH) and JJ Bleday (LH) will face challenges: Rooker struggles with high-velocity fastballs (.210 AVG vs. 95+ mph), while Bleday’s 28% K-rate against splitters makes him vulnerable. 

Wheeler’s Edge: Expect Wheeler to lean on his four-seamer (42% usage) and splitter (12%) early, targeting 7+ strikeouts. His sweeper and curveball will be critical against RH-heavy lineups, while the splitter will keep LH batters off-balance. His 25 whiffs vs. Rockies (April 2) and 13 vs. Pittsburgh (May 17) suggest he’ll generate double-digit swings-and-misses tonight. 

Weather Factor: Citizens Bank Park’s conditions (cool, 60°F, light wind) favor pitchers, potentially enhancing Wheeler’s spin rates and movement, especially on his sweeper and curveball. 

Potential Concerns 

Sinker Struggles: The sinker’s -6 run value and reduced drop could be exploited if Wheeler overuses it against groundball-hitting Athletics like Abraham Toro (.280 AVG vs. sinkers).  

Pitch Count: Wheeler’s 96-105 pitches per start (e.g., 97 vs. Pittsburgh) suggest he’ll work deep, but a high-strikeout game could limit him to 6-7 innings.  

Athletics’ Offspeed Threat: Oakland’s lineup, while weak, occasionally capitalizes on offspeed pitches (e.g., Bleday’s .300 SLG vs. splitters). Wheeler must locate his splitter precisely to avoid barrels. 

Final Take 

Zack Wheeler enters tonight’s game as the Phillies’ undisputed ace, wielding a 2.67 ERA and an 11.25 K/9 that make him a nightmare for the Athletics. His four-seam fastball (95.5-98.8 mph, ~2,400 rpm) and splitter (86.8 mph, 8 IVB) are his primary strikeout drivers, with the sweeper and curveball carving up RH batters and the splitter baffling LH batters. Against a strikeout-prone Oakland lineup, Wheeler is poised for 6-7 innings, 7-9 strikeouts, and a strong chance at his 6th win, provided he minimizes sinker usage and maintains his pinpoint command. The Phillies’ raucous home crowd and Wheeler’s 3.35 ERA at Citizens Bank Park (4-0 in 7 starts) set the stage for a dominant outing. 

Pacers vs Knicks 
7-Unit bet on the Knicks priced as a 6-point favorite. 

Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 5-Units preflop on the Knicks and then look to add 2 units at Knicks priced as a 2.5-point favorite OR two units immediately following a Pacers scoring run of 10 or more points. We all saw, what happened in game 1, when the Knicks scored 14 unanswered points and then collapsed. I do not making bets that late in the game because there is such a limited amount of time remaining in the game that it forces your bet to be instantly correct in most cases.  

Can the Knicks Bounce Back with a Dominating Win? 
The NBA playoffs are a crucible of high stakes and high emotions, where even the most commanding leads can evaporate in front of a stunned home crowd. For the New York Knicks, their Game 1 loss in the 2025 playoffs—despite holding a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter—stings, but history offers perspective. Below, we explore the top three worst collapses in NBA playoff history where a team squandered a double-digit fourth-quarter lead at home, examining how each team regrouped for Game 2. These moments of heartbreak provide context for the Knicks’ current challenge, with a betting algorithm suggesting a potential edge for home favorites like New York in Game 2. 

Top 3 Worst NBA Playoff Collapses (Double-Digit 4th Quarter Lead, Home Loss) 

2010 NBA Finals, Game 7: Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Lakers (June 17, 2010) 

The Collapse: The Celtics, led by Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, held a 13-point lead (68-55) early in the fourth quarter at Staples Center, where the Lakers played as the home team in Game 7. Boston’s defense had stifled Kobe Bryant, and the home crowd was restless. But the Lakers mounted a furious comeback, outscoring Boston 28-16 in the final period. Ron Artest’s clutch three-pointer and Pau Gasol’s rebounding prowess flipped the game, with the Lakers winning 83-79, clinching the championship. The Celtics’ collapse was magnified by their inability to maintain composure, committing key turnovers and missing critical shots.  

Game 2 Response (Prior Game in Series): Since this was Game 7, we look at the Celtics’ response after their earlier Game 1 loss in the same series (a 102-89 defeat at Los Angeles). In Game 2, also on the road, Boston bounced back with a 103-94 victory, led by Ray Allen’s 32 points, including 8-for-11 from three. The Celtics tightened their defense, holding the Lakers to 41% shooting, showing resilience despite the hostile environment. This response highlights how teams can recover from a painful loss by refocusing on defensive fundamentals. 

2006 NBA Finals, Game 3: Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat (June 13, 2006) 

The Collapse: The Mavericks, up 2-0 in the series, entered the fourth quarter of Game 3 at American Airlines Arena with an 83-70 lead. Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry had dominated, and Dallas seemed poised to take a commanding series lead. But Miami, fueled by Dwyane Wade’s 42 points, unleashed a 22-7 run in the final period. The Heat capitalized on Dallas’ defensive lapses and missed free throws, including a critical miss by Nowitzki, to win 98-96. The home crowd was left in disbelief as Miami seized momentum, eventually winning the series in six games.  

Game 2 Response: After losing Game 1 at home (90-80), Dallas responded in Game 2 with a 99-85 victory over Miami. Nowitzki led with 26 points and 16 rebounds, and the Mavericks improved their ball movement, recording 24 assists compared to 17 in Game 1. Their defense also stepped up, limiting Wade to 23 points on 7-for-19 shooting. This steady performance underscores how a home favorite can rebound by leveraging star power and tightening execution. 

2019 Western Conference First Round, Game 2: Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Clippers (April 15, 2019) 

The Collapse: The Warriors, two-time defending champions, led 108-94 with 7:31 left in the fourth quarter at Oracle Arena, their home court. Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry had powered Golden State to a seemingly insurmountable advantage. But the Clippers, led by Lou Williams (36 points, 11 assists) and Montrezl Harrell (25 points), staged a historic 31-point comeback, outscoring Golden State 41-23 in the final period. The Warriors’ defense faltered, and their offense stagnated, leading to a 135-131 loss, the largest comeback in NBA playoff history.  

Game 2 Response: This collapse was Game 2 itself, so we examine Golden State’s response in Game 3 (on the road, as Game 1 was a 121-104 Warriors win). In Game 3, Golden State regained control with a 132-105 victory, led by Durant’s 38 points and Curry’s 21. The Warriors shot 55% from the field and forced 19 Clippers turnovers, demonstrating their ability to regroup by refocusing on offensive efficiency and defensive intensity. This response suggests that elite teams can overcome a collapse by leaning on their stars and tightening execution. 

Contextualizing the Knicks’ Game 2 Opportunity 

The Knicks’ Game 1 collapse echoes these historic moments, where home teams let double-digit fourth-quarter leads slip away. However, history shows that teams can respond effectively in Game 2 by addressing defensive lapses and leveraging home-court energy. A betting algorithm, which has produced a 29-9 SU and 23-13-2 ATS record (64% winning bets) since 2019, offers insight into the Knicks’ situation. The algorithm targets playoff favorites priced between -3.5 and -7.5 points in Game 2 at home. Notably, home favorites coming off a Game 1 loss have gone 10-5 SU and ATS (67% winning bets). This data suggests a favorable setup for the Knicks, provided they are within the specified point spread, as they look to regroup at Madison Square Garden. (Note: The X post’s reference to the Knicks’ “epic choke job” in 2025 is inconclusive without specific game data, so I focus on the algorithm’s broader trend.) 

How Teams Bounced Back 

Common Threads: In each case, the teams that suffered collapses responded in their next game (Game 2 or Game 3) by emphasizing defensive adjustments and star performances. Boston in 2010 leaned on Ray Allen’s shooting, Dallas in 2006 relied on Nowitzki’s dominance, and Golden State in 2019 turned to Durant’s scoring. These teams also improved ball security and shot selection, addressing the turnovers and missed opportunities that plagued their collapses. 

Lessons for the Knicks: New York can draw inspiration from these recoveries without expecting a guaranteed turnaround. Focusing on defensive intensity, minimizing turnovers, and relying on key players like Jalen Brunson could stabilize their performance. The home crowd, while disappointed, can provide a boost if the Knicks show early resilience. 

Final Thoughts 

Collapsing in front of a home crowd is a bitter pill, as the Celtics, Mavericks, and Warriors learned in these infamous playoff games. Yet, their responses—marked by strategic adjustments and leadership from star players—offer a roadmap for recovery. For the Knicks, the betting algorithm’s 67% success rate for home favorites in Game 2 after a Game 1 loss provides a data-driven reason for optimism, though execution remains critical. As they prepare for Game 2, the Knicks have an opportunity to channel their disappointment into a focused, disciplined performance, much like the teams that turned the page on their own historic collapses. 

The following NBA betting algorithm has produced a 32-13 SU and 29-15-1 ATS record good for 66% winning bets since 2017. The requirements are: It is game 2 of the NBA playoffs. Bet on home favorites. Our favorite did not cover the spread in their previous game.