John Ryan

NORTHWESTERN AT OREGON

Saturday, October 31 | 3:30 PM ET | Autzen Stadium, Eugene

THE PLAY: NORTHWESTERN +3.5

SYSTEM RECORD

ATS: 31-14-1

ATS Winners: 69%

Straight Up: 19-27 (41%)

The following NCAAF betting algorithm has earned a 19-27 SU (41%) and 31-14-1 ATS record for 69% winning bets over the past 12 seasons.

REQUIRED SITUATIONS

·       Bet on underdogs priced between 3.5 and 10 points.

·       Their last two games each went UNDER the total.

·       They are allowing between 16 and 21 PPG.

·       They are facing a foe that has allowed between 16 and 21 PPG.

If they are facing a conference foe they improve to 15-14 SU and 21-7-1 ATS for 75% winning bets. If the conference is the SEC, these dogs have gone 5-0 SUATS over the past 10 seasons.

THE STORY: HOW EVERY REQUIREMENT CHECKS OUT

An underdog in the window. Northwestern is a 3.5-point road dog at Oregon, right at the bottom of the 3.5 to 10-point range. Oregon opened as a 7.5-point favorite, and the market has cut it to 3.5.

Two straight unders. On October 17 Northwestern beat Michigan State 24-21, 45 combined points against a posted total of 49.5. A week later they beat Rutgers 42-14, 56 combined points against a total of 59. Both stayed UNDER.

A defense inside the window. Northwestern allows about 16.6 points per game, inside the 16 to 21 range and a top-15 mark nationally. The Wildcats have held Penn State to 13, Ball State to 14, Colorado to 7 and Rutgers to 14.

A foe that fits the same window. Oregon has allowed 145 points in seven games, 20.7 per game, which lands inside the 16 to 21 band as well. This game matches the system on both sides of the ball.

A conference game. Both teams are in the Big Ten, so the stronger conference-foe version of the system, 21-7-1 ATS (75%), applies.

Put it together: a ranked 6-1 underdog with a stingy defense and two straight unders, going into a building where the home team has lost two of its last three and is playing without its starting quarterback. That is the profile this system has backed for 12 seasons.

MORE MATCHUPS THAT FAVOR NORTHWESTERN

·       Northwestern is 6-1 and ranked No. 24 with four straight wins. Its only loss was 29-23 at Indiana, and it is 5-2 against the spread.

·       Quarterback Aidan Chiles has a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a completion rate over 71%. Northwestern has just three giveaways in seven games, third-fewest in the country.

·       The Wildcats rank second nationally in red-zone efficiency, and opponents score touchdowns on only 39.1% of red-zone trips against them.

·       Caleb Komolafe is averaging 6.3 yards per carry (551 yards, five touchdowns), so the ground game keeps the clock moving.

·       Oregon is 4-3 and 2-5 against the spread, and star quarterback Dante Moore is out. The Ducks have scored 15, 17 and 10 points in their last three games, and they fired their offensive coordinator.

·       Oregon ranks among the worst rushing offenses in the country (117th in EPA per rush).

·       In the Illinois loss the Ducks outgained the Illini but managed only a touchdown and a field goal.

BET: NORTHWESTERN +3.5 | Saturday, 3:30 PM ET

TEXAS STATE AT BOISE STATE

Saturday, October 31 | 10:00 PM ET | Albertsons Stadium, Boise

THE PLAY: TEXAS STATE +10.5

SYSTEM RECORD

ATS: 30-16-3

ATS Winners: 65%

Straight Up: 22-27 (45%)

The following NCAAF betting algorithm has gone 22-27 SU (45%) but 30-16-3 ATS good for 65% winning bets since 2010.

REQUIRED SITUATIONS

·       Bet on road teams that are averaging 6.1 or more yards per play.

·       That road team is coming off a poor game in which they gained 3.75 or fewer yards-per-play.

·       The game occurs from week 4 to the end of the season.

If our dog is a double-digit one it has compiled a 10-4-1 ATS record for 71.4% winning bets.

THE STORY: HOW EVERY REQUIREMENT CHECKS OUT

A road team with a high-powered offense. Texas State has piled up 3,624 yards in seven games, about 518 per game, and scores 37.1 points per game. The Bobcats run for 272 yards per game, fourth in the country. That is the kind of offense that clears 6.1 yards per play.

A poor game last time out. Last Saturday Texas State beat Utah State 20-17 despite gaining only 250 yards on 68 plays, 3.7 yards per play, under the 3.75 ceiling, and they still won.

Week 9. This is week 9 of the season, well past the week 4 threshold.

A double-digit dog. The market has Texas State as a 10.5 to 12.5-point underdog depending on the book, so the stronger double-digit version of the system, 10-4-1 ATS (71.4%), is in play.

The story is an explosive offense that had an off week and is now being priced as a heavy underdog. The system says to bet that bounce-back and take the points.

MORE MATCHUPS THAT FAVOR TEXAS STATE

·       Texas State is 4-3 and has won two straight. The Bobcats beat Colorado State 66-27, UIW 63-10 and North Texas 49-35, and lost 31-29 at San Diego State.

·       Quarterback Brad Jackson has thrown for 1,606 yards and 14 touchdowns, and running back Torrance Burgess Jr. has 889 rushing yards.

·       Jaylen Jenkins returned a kickoff 100 yards in the Utah State win and was named Pac-12 Special Teams Player of the Week.

·       Boise State allows 251.3 passing yards per game, 117th in the country, which gives Jackson room to throw.

·       Boise State needed a 38-31 win at Fresno State, and the market has already trimmed this number from the 12.5-point opener.

·       Texas State's offense scores in bunches: 66, 63 and 49 points in three of its last five games.

BET: TEXAS STATE +10.5 | Saturday, 10:00 PM ET

FLORIDA VS GEORGIA

Saturday, October 31 | 3:30 PM ET | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta (neutral site)

THE PLAY: FLORIDA +11.5

Alternative strategy: put most of your wager on the spread and a small portion on the money line.

SYSTEM RECORD

ATS: 24-10

ATS Winners: 71%

If Both Ranked: 13-4 (77%)

Teams that are coming off their first loss of the season have been money burners for decades. Not all of them underperform, but most do, as the hangover of a perfect season going up in smoke cannot be overcome in a single week. So, double-digit favorites that are coming off their first loss of the season and playing in week 9 and beyond have compiled a 189-23 SU (89%), but just 90-118-4 ATS for 43%.

A slight variation of this situation shows that double-digit favorites coming off their first loss of the season from game number 8 on out to the end of the season have compiled a 55-7 SU (88%) and 22-35-5 ATS for 39% ATS winning bets.

Specifically, teams playing their 8th game of the season and coming off their first loss priced as a favorite of 5.5 or more points, losing that previous game by single digits have not done well, compiling an 11-22 ATS record for 33%. So, fading these suffering teams has hit 67% ATS.

This system supports Florida as well and has posted a 24-10 ATS record good for 71% ATS winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

REQUIRED SITUATIONS

·       Bet on teams playing on a neutral field (game is being played in Atlanta).

·       The opponent forced no more than one turnover in their previous game.

·       Our team has forced no more than a single turnover in each of their last three games.

Now, if both teams are ranked our teams have posted a 13-4 SU and ATS record good for 77% winning bets. So, now you can see the reason for the split bet strategy using the money line.

THE STORY: HOW EVERY REQUIREMENT CHECKS OUT

Georgia is coming off its first loss. The Bulldogs were ranked No. 1 and unbeaten until October 17, when Auburn beat them 27-24 on a field goal as time expired. It was Georgia's first loss of the season, and the second straight week that a No. 1 team lost to an unranked opponent.

It was a single-digit loss. Georgia lost by three, exactly the "lost by single digits" setup in the system. Quarterback Gunner Stockton had three turnovers in that game, two interceptions and a fumble on the final drive, and a late roughing-the-passer penalty set up the winning kick.

Georgia is a big favorite. The Bulldogs are favored by 11.5 points in Atlanta, a double-digit price and well above the 5.5-point minimum. The game is Georgia's 8th of the season, right in the sweet spot where these favorites have gone just 11-22 ATS.

Georgia's defense forced nothing. In the Auburn game, Georgia's defense forced no takeaways, which satisfies the "opponent forced no more than one turnover in their previous game" requirement. The Bulldogs also gave up 191 rushing yards, the most all season.

A neutral field with both teams ranked. The game is in Atlanta, a neutral site, and Georgia is now No. 3 while Florida is No. 17, so the 13-4 ranked-vs-ranked version applies.

The story: an unbeaten team that finally lost, a bye week to think about it, and a market that still prices the Bulldogs as a heavy favorite. The system's record says that is when the value is on the dog.

MORE MATCHUPS THAT FAVOR FLORIDA

·       Florida is 5-2 and 3-2 in the SEC, and it has already beaten two top-10 teams this season: No. 4 Ole Miss on September 26 and No. 7 Texas on October 17.

·       The win at Texas came after Florida trailed 17-3. Backup Tramell Jones Jr. made his first career start, going 22 of 35 for 155 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions, and the defense held Texas to 272 yards.

·       Quarterback Aaron Philo, who hurt his shoulder against South Carolina, has returned to practice, and Florida has two quarterbacks who have played winning football.

·       Running back Jadan Baugh ranks in the top 10 nationally in forced missed tackles (40), and receiver Vernell Brown III has 17 catches for 271 yards and is also a threat on punt returns (five returns for 173 yards and two scores).

·       Georgia has beaten Florida eight of the last nine times, but the Bulldogs covered only five of those nine.

·       The money-line piece is the upside play: Florida has already shown this season it can beat top-10 teams outright.

BET: FLORIDA +11.5 | Saturday, 3:30 PM ET

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, November 1 | 1:00 PM ET | AT&T Stadium, Arlington | Week 8

THE PLAY: CARDINALS +7 – 7 UNITS | Sunday NFL Best Bet

The following NFL betting algorithm has compiled a 26-60-2 SU and 56-31-1 ATS record, good for 64.4% winning bets since 2017.

Against the spread: 56-31-1   |   ATS winners: 64.4%   |   Straight up: 26-60-2   |   Trust factor: p = 0.010

Required situations

✓    Bet on dogs that are coming off a game in which they were also priced as the dog.

✓    They are priced as 5.5 or more-point underdogs.

✓    They had three or more third-down failures than the opponent in their previous game.

✓    They gained 400 or fewer yards in that previous game.

If they were an away dog in that previous game, these live dogs have compiled a highly profitable 14-33-1 SU and 33-14-1 ATS, good for 70% winning bets.

The logic behind the system

Big underdogs that failed on third down and could not move the ball last week are the kind of team the public wants to fade. The system says that is the signal to buy the points: the 26-60-2 straight-up record shows these dogs usually lose, but they lose by fewer points than the market expects, and the points are what matter.

Confirming the situation

✓    A big dog. Arizona is a 7-point underdog at Dallas, above the 5.5-point minimum.

✓    The kickoff. The game starts at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 1.

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets

Sunday, November 1 | 1:00 PM ET | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford | Week 8

THE PLAY: RAIDERS +1.5 – 7 UNITS | Sunday NFL Best Bet

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 57-42 SU record and a 55-39-5 ATS mark, good for 59% winning bets since 1999.

Against the spread: 55-39-5   |   ATS winners: 59%   |   Straight up: 57-42   |   Trust factor: p = 0.12

Required situations

✓    Bet on teams from the Pacific time zone.

✓    They are playing a host located in the Eastern time zone.

✓    The game starts at 1:00 PM ET.

If the team has had more than a week of rest, they have gone 12-5 SU and 12-5 ATS for 71% winning bets.Separately, if they are favored by seven or fewer points, they have gone 27-10 SU and 21-12-4 ATS, good for 64% winning bets.

The logic behind the system

A West Coast team playing a 1:00 PM kickoff in the Eastern time zone is supposed to be at a body-clock disadvantage. The numbers say the market overreacts to that: Pacific time zone teams in this spot have won outright 58% of the time and covered 59% of the time. The extra-rest and short-favorite subsets sharpen the edge.

Confirming the situation

✓    Pacific vs Eastern. Las Vegas is from the Pacific time zone and is playing at the Jets, who are in the Eastern time zone.

✓    The kickoff. The game starts at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 1.

✓    The price. The Raiders are only a 1.5-point underdog, a short number on a road team with the travel edge priced in.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, November 1 | 1:00 PM ET | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh | Week 8

THE PLAY: BROWNS +3.5 – 7 UNITS | Sunday NFL Best Bet

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 34-30 SU and 47-15-2 ATS record, good for 76% winning bets since 2018.

Against the spread: 47-15-2   |   ATS winners: 76%   |   Straight up: 34-30   |   Trust factor: p = 0.0001

Required situations

✓    Bet on divisional dogs priced between 2.5 and 7.5 points.

✓    The game is a divisional showdown.

✓    The dog won each of the last two meetings with the current foe.

✓    The foe is coming off a non-divisional game.

The logic behind the system

Divisional games are the hardest in the league to price. These teams know each other, and a team that has won the last two meetings knows how to beat this opponent. Meanwhile the favorite is coming off a game against a team from outside the division, which usually means less preparation and a bit of a letdown. That mix has produced one of the most profitable dog systems in the book.

Confirming the situation

✓    A divisional dog in the window. Cleveland is a 3.5-point underdog at Pittsburgh, inside the 2.5 to 7.5-point range, and both teams are in the AFC North.

The kickoff. The game starts at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 1.