Jimmy Boyd

The total on this Sky and Lynx game is set too high for a matchup defined by lockdown defense.Minnesota is a disciplined unit that prioritizes a half-court grind over a track meet.

The market set this total off Minnesota shooting 53% from the field and 36% from three through three games. That number is going to regress, and the spot to fade it is here.

The Lynx are 108.9 offensive rating, 106.5 defensive rating on a 98.2 pace. Solid, not a 168-point engine. They're also running it without Collier, who put up 22.9 points per game in 2025 and is the entire offensive hub when healthy. Dorka Juhasz is out too.

Chicago counters with the bigger defensive identity. The Sky carry a 98.8 defensive rating and a 14% turnover rate, meaning they protect the ball and slow possessions on their end. Their own offense sits at 103.7, fine but not explosive at 42% from the floor and 30% from three.

The opposition will point to pace. Both teams run, 98.2 and 96.2, and Minnesota's last six have gone over five times. Fair. But those overs came against different defensive profiles, and the head-to-head trend tells the real story: the under has hit in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 home games against Chicago. That's the matchup-specific data, not the general Minnesota trend.

Diggins is questionable with the eye injury. Vandersloot, Carrington, and Stevens are all out for Chicago. That's three rotation pieces missing on one side, the league MVP-caliber forward missing on the other. Offensive firepower is the thing in shortest supply in this game.

The number is inflated by a small sample of Lynx shooting heat. Take the points off.

I like the Under 167.5 (-105)

Sunday's Premium Pick: White Sox ML (+123)

The market is paying me +123 on the team riding a 6-1 SU stretch over its last seven games. That's the starting point.

Look past the win-loss records on the mound. White Sox starter Erick Fedde sits at 3.77 ERA with a 4.15 xERA and a 0.323 xwOBA against. Cubs starter Colin Rea is 4-2 with a 4.68 ERA, but his 5.35 xERA and 0.361 xwOBA say regression is coming. Rea has also given up at least 6 hits in 4 of his last 5 starts and has gone 5.1 innings or fewer in 4 of those 5.

Fedde just turned in 7 innings of 2-run ball against the Angels on April 29 and held the Royals to 2 earned over 5 on May 12. He's stacking quality starts. Rea isn't.

The opposition will point to the Cubs going 11-2 SU in the last 13 meetings, and that's the cleanest case against this play. I'm not buying it as predictive. Half those games involve rosters that don't exist anymore, and the head-to-head sample tells you nothing about today's pitching matchup or the form gap. The Cubs are also 2-5 SU in their last 7 right now.

Weather backs the home side too. 77 degrees, 13 MPH wind from the south at Rate Field, with the over hitting in 5 of the White Sox's last 6 home games. The South Side bats have been live.

The price is the edge. I'm getting the hotter team, the sharper peripheral arm, and a park playing in their favor at plus money.

I like the White Sox ML (+123)

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Joaquin Niemann -110

Joaquin Niemann is simply on a different level than Kristoffer Reitan.
We are looking at a massive talent gap in this Sunday matchup at the PGA Championship.

Niemann ranks among the best in the world when it comes to strokes gained approach and ball striking.
His ability to flight his irons and find small targets on these firm greens gives him a huge edge today.

Reitan has had a nice week so far but he is way over his head in this spot.
The Norwegian spends most of his time on the secondary tours and isn't used to this kind of Sunday pressure.

Aronimink demands precision off the tee and long-iron excellence to score.
Niemann is a high-level ball striker who hits plenty of fairways and greens in regulation.

Reitan tends to spray the ball when the heat is turned up on the back nine.
He has been relying on his scrambling to save par all week, but that luck eventually runs out.

Look at the recent form for both golfers coming into the final round.
Niemann has been a machine from tee-to-green and is avoiding the big mistakes that ruin a scorecard.

The statistical profile for Niemann is much more sustainable over a full 18 holes.
He is gaining significant strokes on the field with his driving distance and accuracy.

Reitan’s putting has kept him relevant, but putting is the most volatile stat in golf.
I much prefer backing the superior ball striker when the trophies are on the line.

Niemann is also the much more experienced player in major championship conditions.
He knows how to grind out tough pars on a championship track while Reitan is prone to a blow-up hole.

Getting Niemann at this price against a journeyman is a massive value play.
The market is giving way too much credit to Reitan’s early-round performance.

Bet Joaquin Niemann ML (-110)

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Cameron Smith +125

Getting a major winner like Cameron Smith at plus money in a head-to-head matchup is an immediate value play.

Bud Cauley is a consistent ball-striker, but he does not have the Sunday ceiling that Smith brings to the table.

The oddsmakers are putting too much weight on recent tour volume and not enough on raw talent.

Smith remains one of the most elite putters on the planet.

When the pressure ramps up on the final day of a big tournament, you want the guy who can scramble for par from a parking lot.

Smith’s strokes gained around the green and his scrambling percentage are consistently at the top of the charts.

Cauley relies heavily on his accuracy off the tee, but he lacks the clinical finishing needed to trade blows with Smith.

Cauley’s approach game is reliable, yet he rarely gains enough strokes putting to keep up with the world's best.

We are looking at a clear class difference between these two golfers in a high-stakes environment.

Smith has proven time and again that he can win on any layout against any field.

His ability to avoid bogeys when the pins are tucked away is a massive advantage in this matchup.

Smith’s iron play has been dialed in all week, and he is hitting far more fairways than his career average.

Cauley is a solid pro, but he simply does not have the firepower to be a favorite here.

The value is strictly on the underdog price for the golfer with the higher win probability.

I like the Cameron Smith ML (+125)

5* NO BRAINER on Patrick Reed +101

Patrick Reed is the ultimate grinder when the pressure ramps up on a Major championship Sunday. He has a massive mental edge in these final-round settings compared to a player like Maverick McNealy.

Aronimink is a classic Donald Ross design that demands elite scrambling and precision on the greens. Reed ranks near the top of the field in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and remains one of the best par-savers in the world.

McNealy is a solid ball-striker, but his proximity to the hole on approach shots tends to drop when the pins get tucked on Sunday. He lacks the creative short-game touch required to stay afloat when missing these elevated, undulating greens.

Reed was the only player in this field to go bogey-free during the opening round, showing his floor is much higher than McNealy’s. While McNealy has shown flashes of brilliance, he hasn't proven he can handle the heat of a back-nine battle for the Wanamaker Trophy.

The "Captain America" mentality is real when Reed sees plus-money next to his name. He thrives in the underdog role and has a proven track record of finding a way to get the ball in the hole when it matters most.

McNealy relies heavily on his putting, but Reed's ability to keep the ball in play and avoid big numbers will be the difference-maker. This course is playing firm and fast, which favors the veteran who knows how to manage a scorecard.

Getting a Major champion at a plus price against a player still searching for his signature moment is a massive value. Reed’s experience in high-stakes Sunday pairings makes him the clear side in this head-to-head matchup.

Expect Reed to use his superior iron play and scrambling to wear down McNealy over the final 18 holes. McNealy has had a great week, but Sunday at a Major is a different animal that favors the veteran shark.

I like the Patrick Reed ML (+101)

Sunday's Free Pick: Over 8 (-115)

The market dropped this from 8.5 to 8 on injury news, and the buyback on the Over at -115 tells you sharps see value at the lower number. I'm with them.

Start with the pitching, because that's the opposition's strongest argument. Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi is sitting on a 4.15 ERA but a 4.39 xERA, with a .247 BA against versus a .264 xBA. Astros starter Peter Lambert looks shinier with a 2.76 ERA, but his xERA is 3.44 and his xSLG of .343 is nearly 80 points above his actual .264 slug allowed. Both are due for regression.

Eovaldi is also coming off side tightness and hasn't pitched in 11 days. First start back, the Rangers will have a quick hook. That exposes a middle relief group on a team that's 21-24.

The lineups still have thump even with injuries. Yordan Alvarez hits second for Houston. Corey Seager is in the three-hole for Texas, with Josh Jung and Jake Burger behind him. Daikin Park is a dome, so weather is a non-factor and the ball carries fine.

Yes, the under is 6 of 8 for both teams recently, and 6 of 9 in the head-to-head. I get it. But those trends were built with healthier rotations and higher totals. At 8 with two starters whose underlying numbers say they should be giving up more, the price is the play.

I like the Over 8 (-115)

Sunday's Premium Pick: Under 207 (-110)

The 207 total looks low if you only read the scoring averages. Look closer.

Detroit has posted a 107.9 defensive rating over its last 10 games. That's the number that actually matters tonight, not the 119.9 PPG headline. The Pistons are slowing games down too, running at a 98.97 pace.

The head-to-head book is loud. The under is 14-3 in the last 20 meetings between these teams, 8-3 in the last 11 in Detroit, and 8-3 in the last 11 when Cleveland visits Detroit. Three separate splits all pointing the same direction.

Detroit's perimeter rotation is banged up. Kevin Huerter is managing an adductor strain and barely played the last two games. Duncan Robinson is working through a back issue. Caris LeVert is dealing with a heel contusion. That .420 team three-point clip over the last 10 is going to be tough to replicate with that group compromised.

The opposition case is real. Cleveland is running at 101.5 pace with a 117.2 defensive rating, and these teams have combined for 241.7 PPG over their last 10. I get it. But that combined average is built against a much wider range of opponents than what Detroit is bringing tonight. Detroit's recent defensive level is more than 12 points better than what Cleveland has been seeing, and the situational spot here favors a grind.

Pace down, defense up, shooters hurting, history backing it. Stack the points and take the under.

I like the Under 207 (-110)

The Mets are sitting in a prime spot as home underdogs in this series finale.They have been crushing right-handed pitching over the last two weeks and match up perfectly here.

The Mets are catching +115 at home with the clear pitching edge on the mound. That's the price I want.

Mets starter Freddy Peralta brings a 3.10 ERA and a 3.56 xERA into this one. He's been steady, going at least 5 innings in each of his last five starts and holding opponents to a .219 BA / .287 wOBA on the year.

Yankees starter Elmer Rodriguez is the opposite side of that coin. He's 0-1 with a 5.19 ERA across two MLB starts and has walked 8 batters in 8.2 innings of big league work. That's an 8.31 BB/9 walking into Citi Field against Juan Soto, Bo Bichette, and Mark Vientos.

Free baserunners against this Mets lineup at +115 is exactly the spot I want, even with the depleted roster.

I hear the opposition loud and clear. The Mets are 19-26 with Lindor, Alvarez, Polanco, Robert Jr., and Mauricio all on the 10-day IL, and Clay Holmes is gone from the bullpen for months. That's why this number is plus-money in the first place. But the market is pricing the Mets like a bad team without weighing who's actually on the mound for the Yankees. A rookie with a 2.08 WHIP in two starts is the great equalizer.

The trends back it. The Yankees are 2-6 SU in their last 8 and just 5-10 SU in the last 15 meetings against the Mets. The Mets are 4-1 in their last 5.

I like the Mets ML (+115)