|
Jimmy Boyd |
|
|---|---|---|
| FREE PICKS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
| NCAA-F | Sep 06, 2026 Washington State vs. Washington |
Total 50½ -110 at PLAYMGM |
in 14h |
|
1* Free Pick on Washington State/Washington: over 50½ All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
||
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
MLB | Sep 05, 2026 Yankees vs Padres |
Padres -118 at circa |
Lost $118.0 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
|
5* NO BRAINER on Padres -118 This line assumes the Yankees are still the Yankees. They're not right now. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are both on the 60-day IL. That's the entire middle-of-the-order power gone. The lineup New York is running out tonight has Amed Rosario hitting third and Heliot Ramos fifth. That's a very different animal than the group that built the 80-61 record. Meanwhile the matchup sets up well for San Diego. Yankees starter Carlos Rodon is a lefty with a 3.20 ERA, but the Padres stack right-handed bats against him: Fernando Tatis leads off, Manny Machado hits third, Ty France cleans up. Three righties in the top four spots is exactly the look you want against a left-hander. The honest knock on this pick is Padres starter Robbie Ray. His 3.14 ERA comes with a 4.63 xERA, and he's walked 16 over his last five starts. That's real, and it's why I'm not laying a bigger number. But the results keep landing: 2 or fewer earned runs in 4 of those 5 outings, including 6 shutdown innings at Tampa Bay last week (3 hits, 1 earned run). Walks matter a lot less against a lineup that can't slug them home, and this Yankees order without Judge and Stanton doesn't punish traffic the way the full version does. At -118 you're getting a home team at Petco with the platoon edge on offense against a visitor missing its two best hitters. The record gap is priced off rosters that no longer exist. I like the Padres |
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-F | Sep 05, 2026 Oregon State vs Houston |
OVER 50 -110 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Free | ||
|
1* Free Pick on Oregon State/Houston: over 50 This total comes down to one side of the ball: Houston's offense against Oregon State's defense. Both teams open their 2026 season here, so last year's tape is what we have to work with. Houston averaged 33.38 points a game across the 8 games I tracked in 2025 while allowing 27.5. That is shootout football. Their bowl win over LSU landed 73 combined points. The West Virginia game in November hit 80. Oregon State's defense gave up 31.11 a game last season. Houston should have no trouble hitting the mid 30s against that group. The obvious knock is the Beavers' offense. They averaged just 19 points a game in 2025, including an 8-point dud at Washington State to close the year. Fair point, and it is the strongest case for the under. But the over doesn't need Oregon State to be good. It needs them to score twice, maybe three times, against a Houston defense that allowed 27.5 a game and gave up 45 at home to West Virginia. Two touchdowns and a field goal from the Beavers gets this comfortably over if Houston does its part. The head to head from last September backs that up. Houston won 27-24 in Corvallis, 51 combined points, and that was with Oregon State's offense sputtering the way it did all year. A noon kickoff in the Houston heat is a real factor, but heat cuts both ways. Tired defenses miss tackles late. At 50, the number is asking Oregon State for very little. That's the price I want. I like the Over |
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-F | Sep 05, 2026 UNLV vs Hawaii |
UNDER 57½ -110 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
|
3* HEAVY HITTER on UNLV/Hawaii: under 57½ The market wants a Mountain West shootout at 57.5. The protection issues on one side and the stalled drives on the other say otherwise. Start with UNLV. Starting center Austin Boyd is out with an ankle injury. The Rebels gave up 6 sacks to Memphis in the opener, including 4 sacks and minus-14 yards on the 12 plays right after Boyd exited. That interior gets reshuffled again this week. I know the case for the over. UNLV averaged 34.22 points a game last season and hung 38 or more in four of its last five regular-season games in 2025. But that production came behind a healthy line. When the center of your protection is gone and quarterback Jackson Arnold is running for his life, yardage between the 20s doesn't turn into points. Hawaii's side of the scoreboard is the quieter problem. The Warriors punted on six of their first seven possessions against Stanford, and key pass-catchers including WR Pofele Ashlock carry injury designations. Quarterback Micah Alejado dropped back 51 times for just 272 yards in that game. That's a dink-and-dunk offense eating clock without finishing drives. The head-to-head tape backs it up. Last November UNLV beat Hawaii 38-10 in Vegas. That's 48 combined points, a full 10 below this number, with Hawaii's offense held to single digits until garbage time territory. Even last season's baselines don't get there. Hawaii averaged 27.9 for and 23.9 against in 2025. Pair that with a UNLV offense missing its center and this number is too high. I like the Under |
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-F | Sep 05, 2026 UNLV vs Hawaii |
UNLV -140 at Ace |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
|
4* VEGAS INSIDER on UNLV -140 UNLV beat Hawaii 38-10 last November, and now the market is only asking -140 to take the better team again. This is week 1. Neither side has played a game in 2026, so the case rests on last season's tape and the matchup itself, not recent form. Start with the head-to-head. UNLV is 2-0 against Hawaii in their last 2 meetings, and the most recent one wasn't close. A 28-point margin tells you the talent gap was real. The scoring profiles back it up. UNLV averaged 34.22 points a game across its late 2025 run while Hawaii sat at 27.9. Defensively they were nearly identical, 23.67 allowed for UNLV against 23.9 for Hawaii. The separation in this matchup is offense, and it belongs to the Rebels. UNLV also proved it travels. Last November they won 42-10 at Colorado State, then hung 42 on Nevada in a 42-17 road win. This isn't a team that shrinks away from home. The best argument for Hawaii is home defense. They held Wyoming to 7 and San Diego State to 6 in Honolulu late last season, and they beat California 35-31 in December. That's legitimate. But those were offenses that couldn't stress them vertically, and this same Hawaii defense gave up 38 to UNLV just weeks before those games. The personnel edge hasn't flipped since. The island trip is the standard concern for any mainland team. At -140 for a side that outscored this opponent by 28 in the most recent meeting, the price covers it. I like UNLV |
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-F | Sep 05, 2026 Oklahoma State vs Tulsa |
OVER 57½ -110 |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
|
4* VEGAS INSIDER on Oklahoma State/Tulsa: over 57½ Let's deal with the obvious objection first. Last September Tulsa beat Oklahoma State 19-12 in Stillwater, a 31-point game. Tulsa's 2025 games listed here averaged 23.5 points scored and 24 allowed, a 47.5 combined baseline that sits a full 10 points under this number. If you believe this is the same matchup, the Under is your play. It's not the same matchup. That 19-12 game was played by an Oklahoma State offense that couldn't get out of its own way, and both programs have spent the offseason retooling. Both sides are at 0 games played in 2026. Books don't hang 57.5 on a matchup that produced 31 points a year ago without a reason. The market is pricing a very different offensive product, and I agree with the direction. Season openers are where defenses look their worst. New secondaries, new communication, missed assignments that turn into explosive plays. Turnovers create short fields and cheap points. That week 1 variance runs toward the Over, not away from it. Tulsa's own tape from last year shows the ceiling. Last October Tulsa lost 41-27 at East Carolina, a 68-point game that clears this number with room to spare. Tulsa also closed last November giving up 31 at home to UAB. When opponents pushed tempo, points followed. The gameday heat cuts both ways. Tired defenses miss tackles in the fourth quarter just as often as tired offenses stall. The Under case is built entirely on rosters that no longer exist. The Over case is built on what opening week actually looks like. I like the Over |
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-F | Sep 05, 2026 Liberty vs James Madison |
Liberty +7 -110 at betus |
Tie |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
|
5* NO BRAINER on Liberty +7 Week 1 numbers get built off last season's results, and this one leans hard on 2025 James Madison. Both teams sit at 0-0 this year. Nobody has proven anything yet. Last year's JMU was a good team, no argument. In the games I charted they went 6-2, scored 33.75 a game and allowed 20.75. They routed Coastal Carolina 59-10 in late November. The strongest case against this play is the head-to-head. JMU beat Liberty 31-13 last September, an 18-point win that dwarfs this spread. But that result belongs to a different season and different rosters, and it's exactly what the market is anchoring on. By December that same JMU defense got shredded by Oregon in a 51-34 loss. There's more in last year's tape. JMU needed every snap to hold off Washington State 24-20 at home in November. Against opponents with a pulse, one-score games happened. Now layer in the transition. JMU opens 2026 breaking in a new head coach. New staff, new schemes, first live rep. Week 1 favorites in that spot rarely play to their prior-year ceiling, and this line assumes they will. This is a price play. Plus 7 gives me the key number and full touchdown protection in a game where the favorite's biggest selling points are a year old. You make money when you buy, and the market is selling 2025 James Madison at a 2026 price. I like Liberty |
||
|
PREMIUM PICK STREAKS |
|---|
|
SERVICE BIO |
|---|
|
Boyd is a former collegiate golfer and University of Iowa Law grad that ensures you success in every sport he covers. Jimmy's quality sports selections with game-breaking analysis make him a major force in the handicapping industry for years to come. No Brainer: This is one of Jimmy’s highest rated plays. After reading his write-up on the game you will see why this play’s title is so fitting. These picks are reserved for major mismatch advantages and strong value plays. Heavy Hitter: Jimmy’s Heavy Hitter plays are backed by a wealth of statistical analysis and fit into one or more of his many winning systems. This is the well-rounded gem of Jimmy’s top plays, and it covers games from every angle. Vegas Insider: Nobody spots a winning system like Jimmy Boyd. His Vegas Insider label is reserved for plays backed by the strongest systems and trends on the board. Bailout Blowout: There is no better way to end the day than picking up a big win on the final game of the evening. Jimmy’s Bailout Blowouts come on late games and they have built a strong reputation as being a consistent winner. All of Jimmy’s picks get monitored around the web. Jimmy is one of the very few handicappers that have actually earned the stripes to be regarded as a top Industry player. There are not many handicappers in the industry that can match his long term success rates. |
Here are a few more of the NCAA basketball handicappers on our site: