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FREE PICKS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Dec 07, 2019
Virginia vs. Clemson
Clemson
-28 -109
  at  PINNACLE
in 1d

1* NCAAF - Free Pick on Clemson Tigers -28

I got no problem laying the big number here with Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. It's crazy to think that there could be this big of a gap in a Power 5 conference, which might tempt some people to take the points. Not me. In fact, I think there's some value here with the Tigers at this price. 

Clemson has to be the least hyped defending champ to finish the regular-season undefeated that I can remember. I think it's worked in the Tigers' favor, as it's allowed them to play with a chip on their shoulder. Last year's national championship was great, but Clemson is on a mission to keep winning and become the same kind of dynasty that Alabama has been for the last decade plus. 

No disrespect to Virginia, but they got no shot of keeping this game close. The Cavaliers outscored their ACC opponents by a respectable 7.9 ppg and outgained them by 27.8 ypg. That's great an all, but Clemson was +35.7 ppg and +319.7 ypg. 

Last year it was a similar story against Pitt in the ACC title game and the Tigers won that contest 42-10 as a 27-point favorite. The year before they rolled Miami 38-3 as a mere 10-point favorite. 

Tigers are 15-5 ATS last 20 games played on a neutral field and a perfect 6-0 on a neutral site if the total is between 49.5 and 56. They are also 7-0 ATS last 7 road games when they come in having won 7 or more consecutive games and are winning in this spot by 33.7 ppg. Take Clemson! 

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Dec 04, 2019
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs
Maple Leafs
-115 at Bovada
Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Premium

4* NHL - Money Line MASSACRE on Maple Leafs -115

I like the value here with the Maple Leafs as a small home favorite against the Avalanche on Wednesday. Colorado is the better team, but the Avalanche are just 8-6 on the road compared to 8-2 at home, so they are clearly more vulnerable away from home. 

I also like the fact that Toronto comes in playing well. While they lost last time out, they are 4-2 in their last 6 and are averaging 3.5 goals/game during this stretch. Colorado comes in off a 7-3 win over Chicago, but are just 5-12 in their last 17 after a game where they scored 6 or more. Take Toronto! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Dec 04, 2019
Kings vs Blazers
Blazers
-3½ -110 at sportsbook
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

4* NBA - Late Night NO LIMIT ATS DESTROYER on Blazers -3½ -110

I really like the value here with Portland as a small home favorite against the Kings. I think we are getting a great price here on the Blazers due to the fact that this is a bad scheduling spot for them playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. 

With that said, the addition of Carmelo Anthony has given this Portland team a huge spark. Anthony has been way better than anyone could have expected. Last week he averaged 22.3 ppg on 57.4% shooting, including 45.5% from deep. His emergence gives the Blazers a legit 3-man scoring punch with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, both of which have started to shoot the ball much better since Anthony's arrival. 

Portland also doesn't have the luxury of taking nights off right now, as they got some major ground to make up with a 8-13 record. They have won 3 of 4 with the only loss to the Clippers last night. Kings had covered 12 of 13 before losing at home to the Bulls as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday and I think we are going to see them struggle a bit now that the books have clearly adjusted the number on them. Take Portland! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Dec 04, 2019
Grizzlies vs Bulls
OVER 221 -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Grizzlies/Bulls over 221 -110

I think we are getting some great value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA matchup that has the Bulls hosting the Grizzlies. These two teams like to play fast, as the Bulls are T-11th in pace and Memphis is 6th. 

The Grizzlies are without star rookie point guard Joe Morant, but in the last two games without him both matchups saw a combined score of 221 or more. Not only do these two teams like to play fast, they also don't play much defense. Memphis is allowing 117 ppg and the Bulls are giving up 110 ppg. 

Another thing to keep in mind when we have two bad teams facing off against each other, the defensive intensity is usually not there. OVER is 5-1 in the Grizzlies last 6 vs a team with a losing home record and 5-1-1 in the Bulls last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Take the OVER! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 04, 2019
Virginia vs Purdue
Purdue
+1 -110 at betonline
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Purdue +1 -110

The Boilermakers are worth a look here as a home dog against No. 5 Virginia. The fact that the No. 5 team is basically a pick'em against an unranked opponent says it all. The books are begging the public to take the Cavaliers, which means they must really like how Purdue matches up here. 

One thing is certain. The Boilermakers won't be thrown off by Virginia's grind it out style of play. Purdue ranks 348th in the country in tempo and want to win in the same way. I know the Cavaliers won at Syracuse earlier in the season, but that's a bad Orange team. This is easily their toughest true road game to date and with an offense that can't score it's hard to beat quality teams away from home. 

Purdue has lost all 3 of their meetings against top programs, falling to Texas, Marquette and FSU, but were very competitive in all 3 defeats. Boilermakers will be highly motivated for a statement win against one of the nation's best teams. Take Purdue! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 04, 2019
Boise State vs New Mexico
Boise State
+4½ -110 at sportsbook
Won
$100
Play Type: Free

1* NCAAB - Free Pick on Boise State +4½ 

Boise State is worth a look here as a road dog against the Lobos. This line opened at New Mexico -6 and just keeps dropping, as the sharp money is pouring in on the Broncos. For good reason. I not only think Boise covers, but I like them to win outright. 

After going just 13-20 last year and finishing T-7th in the MWC at 7-11, the Broncos are flying under the radar this season. After a rough start that included a blowout loss at Oregon, Boise has responded with 3 straight wins, including OT victories at home against BYU and at Pacific. 

New Mexico comes in off a 72-63 win at home against Montana, but failed to cover as a 10-point favorite and are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games. Lobos are also just 4-16 ATS last 20 after playing a game at home and 1-4 ATS last 5 as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. Take Boise State! 

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Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 04, 2019
UC-Davis vs Northern Arizona
Northern Arizona
-4½ -109 at GTBets
Lost
$109.0
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Northern Arizona -4½ -109

I like the value here with the Lumberjacks as a small home favorite against UC-Davis. Northern Arizona has to be the freshest team in the country, as they have only played 4 games all season and this will be just their 3rd in the last 19 days. That's a lot of valuable practice time, but at the same time the players have to be chomping at the bit to get on the floor against another team. 

Hard to not like their chances of winning here rather easily against a struggling Aggies team that comes in having lost 6 straight. Not only that but UC-Davis has to be running on fumes with all the travel they have had to do here of late. They have played 9 games and only 1 of those were on their home court, which was back on Nov. 7th. Each of their last 3 games have been true road contests. 

Aggies are just 5-14 ATS last 19 non-conference games and 7-16 ATS last 23 as an underdog. Take Northern Arizona! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 04, 2019
CS-Northridge vs Portland
Portland
-4½ -109 at GTBets
Lost
$109.0
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAB - Late Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Portland -4½ -109

The Matadors suffered a massive blow prior to the season ever starting, as reigning Big West Player of the Year, Newcomer of the Year and Freshman of the Year, Lamine Diane, was ruled academically ineligible. CS-Northridge has started out just 1-7 without Diane and are 0-6 in games away from home, losing by an average of 21.6 ppg. 

On the flip side of this, Portland has came out of nowhere to start the year 6-1, with the only loss coming at USC by a mere 11-points. Keep in mind the Pilots only won 7 games all of last year. The schedule hasn't been overly challenging, but the important thing is they are 5-1 ATS. I just don't think it's asking a lot for them to win here by more than the number. Take Portland! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 04, 2019
San Diego State vs Colorado State
Colorado State
+5 -110 at betonline
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAB - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Colorado State +5 -110

Colorado State is worth a look here as a home dog against the Aztecs. I just think San Diego State is getting a little too much respect from the books after starting out the season 8-0 SU and 6-1 ATS. 

One reason to expect the Aztecs to regress is how fortunate they have been in the battle at the 3-point line. San Diego State has shot a ridiculous 40.9% from deep. Considering the national average is 33%, it's only a matter of time before they start regressing and opposing teams are only hitting 32% from deep against the Rams. 

Aztecs' opponents have also shot just 26.7% from behind the 3-point line against them. They figure to struggle to improve that number here, as Colorado State is shooting 38% from deep on the season. Take Colorado State! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 04, 2019
Eastern Illinois vs IUPU Ft Wayne
Eastern Illinois
+5 -110 at YouWager
Tie
Play Type: Top Premium

5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Eastern Illinois +5 -110

I love the value here with the Panthers as a road dog against the Mastodons. These two played last year at Eastern Illinois and IUPU-Ft Wayne embarrassed the Panthers 104-60 as a mere 3.5-point favorite. All 5 starters are back for Eastern Illinois and you can bet they have had this one circled since the schedule was released. 

The Mastodons only return 2 starters from last year's team and had to replace their dynamic scoring duo of John Konchar (19.5 ppg) and Kason Harrell (15.2 ppg). IUPU comes in having won 3 straight, but it's come against some soft competition. I think we got a real taste for the talent level on this team when they lost by 39 at Ohio State. 

Eastern Illinois is just 4-3, but two of those losses were on the road against Power 5 opponents in Texas Tech and Wisconsin. The other came on no rest in a tournament. Speaking of rest, the Panthers haven't played since Nov. 24, while the Mastodons just played on Saturday. Take Eastern Illinois! 

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 05, 2019
Louisiana Tech vs Mississippi State
Louisiana Tech
+8½ -109 at GTBets
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Louisiana Tech +8½ -109

I really like the value here with Louisiana Tech as a decently priced dog at Mississippi State. Mississippi State is off to a strong 6-1 start and have covered 5 straight, but I think that has them getting a little too much respect here. 

This Louisiana Tech team is the real deal. They have 4 starters back from a team that managed to win 20 games last year despite being hit hard with injuries. Louisiana Tech is off to a strong 5-2 start with their only two losses coming by 10 at Creighton and by 13 at Indiana. Two teams I think are better than Mississippi State. 

Louisiana Tech can really disrupt teams with their defensive pressure. That combined with the experience they have at the guard position has them winning the turnover battle just about every time out. They have only lost the turnover battle twice all season and both times were a mere -2.

Louisiana Tech is 9-2-1 ATS last 12 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 8-2 ATS last 10 as a road dog. Take Louisiana Tech! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Dec 05, 2019
Jets vs Stars
UNDER 5½ -125 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

4* NHL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Jets/Stars under 5½ -125

The OVER is worth a look in Thursday's NHL showdown between the Stars and Jets. These two just played at Winnipeg on Tuesday and combined for 6 goals with the Jets doing all the heavy lifting in a 5-1 win. It marked the 5th time in the Jets last 6 they scored 3 or more goals. It also marked the 4th straight game that Dallas allowed 3 or more goals. 

In the last 3 years these two teams have met 8 times and the OVER has cashed in 6 of those. OVER is also 14-3 in Winnipeg's last 17 after going 4 straight games holding a team to 2 or fewer goals. 

OVER is laos 24-7 (77%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 5.5 where the road teams is off a home win by 3 or more against an opponent off 2 straight road losses. Take the OVER! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Dec 05, 2019
Rockets vs Raptors
Raptors
-2 -109 at GTBets
Lost
$109.0
Play Type: Top Premium

5* NBA - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Raptors -2 -109

The Raptors are worth a look here as I think we are getting some exceptional value with Toronto laying a short number at home against the Rockets. Toronto comes into this off a crushing OT loss at home to Miami and they are 7-1 ATS last 8 times off a loss by more than 10 points. 

As for the Rockets, they will have had just 1-day off since their double-overtime loss at San Antonio on Tuesday. Five different players for Houston logged at least 40 minutes with Westbrook, Harden and Tucker all playing 48+. I just don't see the Rockets have a whole lot left in the tank in this one. 

That game against the Spurs ended 235-233 and that's worth noting, as Houston is a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a contest that had 245 or more combined points. 

Also, underdogs that have won 60% to 70% of their games and are off a game that went over the total by 30 or more are just 5-26 (16%) ATS if they are playing a team with a winning record. Take Toronto! 

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