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Jimmy Boyd |
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| FREE PICKS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
| NFLX | Aug 26, 2023 Dolphins vs. Jaguars |
Total 41 -110 at |
started |
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1* Free Pick on Dolphins/Jaguars over All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Sep 07, 2026 SMU vs Florida State |
OVER 53½ -110 |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Free | ||
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1* Free Pick on SMU/Florida State: over 53½ This is a season opener for both teams, so there's no current form to lean on. The case here is last year's tape, the injury reports, and the price. Last season Florida State averaged 35.78 points a game across the nine games I have logged. SMU averaged 32.5 over ten. That's 68-plus combined, nearly 15 points north of this number. Now look at who's covering the pass. Florida State is without defensive backs Karson Hobbs, Chauncey Kennon, and Jordan Crutchfield, with safety K.J. Kirkland doubtful. SMU counters by losing starting safety and leading tackler Ahmaad Moses plus safety Jaden Milliner-Jones. Both back ends are patchwork in week 1, before either staff has game reps to sort out the depth. The offenses can take advantage. SP+ projects SMU's offense 22nd nationally at a 32.5 rating. Those early ratings lean on last year's production, but SMU showed it late in 2025: 45 at Boston College in November, 38 on Louisville a few weeks later. The under case is real. Both defenses project top 30 in SP+, and there's rain in the Tallahassee forecast. Here's why that doesn't flip me: those defensive projections assume healthy rosters, and neither secondary is close to whole. Wet ball or not, backup safeties bust coverages, and one or two long touchdowns change the math on a 53.5 total fast. Depleted secondaries, capable offenses, and a number that sits well below what these teams produced last fall. That's enough. I like the Over |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Sep 07, 2026 SMU vs Florida State |
Florida State +140 at PlayMGM |
Lost $100.0 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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5* NO BRAINER on Florida State +140 Neither team has played a game yet this season, so this one comes down to the matchup, the number, and last year's tape. SP+ projects SMU 25th at 12.1 and Florida State 35th at 9.1. That's a 3-point gap on a neutral field. Standard home field is worth about that much, which makes this closer to a coin flip than the price says. The case against FSU starts with that SMU edge, specifically on offense: SMU projects 22nd (32.5) against FSU's 46th (29.8). Fair point. But these are preseason projections leaning on last year's inputs, and the defensive side is a wash: SMU 29th (20.1), FSU 30th (20.4). If the defenses are even and home field erases the overall gap, +140 is too generous. FSU's finish last season was ugly, no argument there. But look where the ugly happened. They lost 40-21 at Florida and 21-11 at NC State in November. At home that same month they handled Virginia Tech 34-14, and their listed home loss to Pitt was a 3-point game. Scoring wasn't the problem either. FSU averaged 35.78 a game across the 9 games listed from last season. SMU away from home is the other piece. They lost 38-35 at California last November. Good team, but not one that has shown it rolls people on the road. A primetime conference opener at Doak Campbell is a much tougher spot than that trip. At +140 the market implies about 41.7%. I make this game close to even, and I'm getting paid plus money on the side with the building behind it. I like Florida State |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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CFL | Sep 07, 2026 Edmonton Elks vs Calgary |
Edmonton Elks -1 -110 at Buckeye |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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5* NO BRAINER on Edmonton Elks -1 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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PREMIUM PICK STREAKS |
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SERVICE BIO |
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Boyd is a former collegiate golfer and University of Iowa Law grad that ensures you success in every sport he covers. Jimmy's quality sports selections with game-breaking analysis make him a major force in the handicapping industry for years to come. No Brainer: This is one of Jimmy’s highest rated plays. After reading his write-up on the game you will see why this play’s title is so fitting. These picks are reserved for major mismatch advantages and strong value plays. Heavy Hitter: Jimmy’s Heavy Hitter plays are backed by a wealth of statistical analysis and fit into one or more of his many winning systems. This is the well-rounded gem of Jimmy’s top plays, and it covers games from every angle. Vegas Insider: Nobody spots a winning system like Jimmy Boyd. His Vegas Insider label is reserved for plays backed by the strongest systems and trends on the board. Bailout Blowout: There is no better way to end the day than picking up a big win on the final game of the evening. Jimmy’s Bailout Blowouts come on late games and they have built a strong reputation as being a consistent winner. All of Jimmy’s picks get monitored around the web. Jimmy is one of the very few handicappers that have actually earned the stripes to be regarded as a top Industry player. There are not many handicappers in the industry that can match his long term success rates. |
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