Jim Feist

Did you mean Montana against Northern Colorado on Monday, March 9, 2026? Montana vs Campbell doesn't appear on today's schedule. The game is actually Montana's real Big Sky tourney game against Northern Colorado in Boise, with UNC favored by ~3.5 to 4.5.

In my opinion there's still a good angle for Montana to cover that number. First off, this spread is relatively short for a neutral-floor conference tournament game between two teams that went 10-8 in conference play. Both teams had losing records overall at 20-11 UNC and 16-15 Montana, but as I mentioned these two were pretty even in league play, and that matters when you're talking about covering multiple possessions.

Next, this is a rematch of a game last week that went way in favor of Northern Colorado, who won 85-57 on March 2. Sometimes recent blowouts like that develop value on the opposite side in a rematch just a week later. Also keep in mind this is a tournament game so expect things to be closer than the regular season meeting. Montana also has the advantage of playing a game last week while UNC is just coming off a break to open their tournament. That typically allows the dog to play a little sharper early on.

Lastly, there's just a value angle based on where the line sits right now. Many books have Northern Colorado just a -3.5 favorite, and even projection derived covers have this game close to a one-possession game. That means you don't need Montana to win this game straight up to gain an edge. On a spread this small, sometimes just playing it close till the end of the 2nd half is enough value.

Overall, I may still lean UNC as the team more likely to win this game outright but Montana covering the number makes sense because this will be played on a neutral floor in the postseason, both teams had nearly identical conference records, and the spread doesn't have them laying many points so all Montana needs to do is stay close for 40 minutes.

Jim's Play: Take: 844. Montana

Robert Morris enters Monday’s game with strong credentials to cover against Detroit Mercy because the Colonials have been the better team all season long and have already beaten this slate once. Robert Morris enters 22-10, Detroit Mercy 16-14, and the current market has the Colonials favored by about 4.5 to 5.5 points.

The first reason to side with Robert Morris in this contest stems from head-to-head history. Robert Morris beat Detroit Mercy twice during the regular season and a recent semifinal preview pointed out that Robert Morris dominated both games thanks to second-half runs. That is important in a spread contest like this one because it shows Robert Morris can make better adjustments down the stretch and earn a comfortable win.

Betting on Robert Morris spreads throughout the entire season is another reason they like here. Robert Morris is 20-10 against the spread this season which means they have not only won more games than they’ve lost, they have outperformed market expectations. Detroit Mercy has been extremely competitive against the spread all season long but Robert Morris has been steadier as a betting favorite and has already covered a game against Detroit Mercy.

Robert Morris also just has more trustworthy options on the court from game-to-game. While the semifinal preview mentioned Detroit Mercy will need big performances from Lovejoy and some additional production from young players, Robert Morris is led by veteran guard Prather and forward Goode. Betting on experience in a neutral-floor tournament setting is never wrong and that ability to finish strong in the second half really helps Robert Morris stand out.

I do think Detroit Mercy can stay close early in this game but Robert Morris has far too much working in their favor throughout the season and during these specific playoffs. Detroit Mercy can hang around for a while but Robert Morris should win by multiple possessions and cover the number Monday night.

Jim's Play: 838. Robert Morris -5 

Troy has a strong enough play against the spread against Georgia Southern on Monday as the Trojans’ defense and physical style of play will win out. Right now, Troy is laying around 6.5 points as favorites with tipoff Monday night in Pensacola as Sun Belt Tournament championship game. 

Right off the bat, Troy has the advantage of having beaten Georgia Southern this season, overcoming a 63-57 deficit to win 70-63 on Dec. 20. That previous meeting matters because Georgia Southern has not exactly flourished against Troy defensively since then, meaning this game should play pretty similarly with Troy simply needing to lean on its defense instead of staging a shootout.

Defensively is where the numbers line up best for Troy. Georgia Southern scores 81.5 points per game, but Troy allows just 73.5 points per game and goes 17-7 when opponents score less than 81.5 points. If Troy can hold Georgia Southern down even a few points below their average, that gives the favorite room to win by a couple possessions comfortably.

Georgia Southern should not worry too much about Troy scoring though because the Trojans are capable of doing enough damage on that end, too. Troy scores 80.4 points per game which is just north of Georgia Southern’s allowance of 79.8 points per game, and Troy is 12-3 when scoring over 79.8 points per game. Simply playing at their offense’s average puts them in good position to cover.

Georgia Southern does hold the slight edge of playing at home, but this is a tournament game with something on the line. Monday’s contest is the Sun Belt championship, and Troy simply has the better profile entering Monday. OddsShark had Troy at 20-11 and Georgia Southern at 21-15 entering tipoff. In a game of this magnitude, having the best defense often lends itself to the best chance at securing a cover, and Troy has that.

Georgia Southern can score, but Troy is built better to win in this type of pressure game. Georgia Southern already lost to the Trojans this season when Troy was able to keep it from becoming a track meet. There is value betting Troy to win this game by two or three possessions.

Jim's Play:  842. Troy -6.5 

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi deserves some consideration here because both the matchup and the tournament scenario favor the Islanders. The number is getting pushed around -2.5 only.  Corpus Christi finished ahead of New Orleans in the Southland regular-season standings by going 17-14 overall and 13-9 in conference compared to the Privateers’ 15-17 and 12-10.

Perhaps even more importantly, Corpus Christi has the advantage of rest. The Islanders were granted a first-round bye in the conference tournament while New Orleans advanced to Monday by beating Houston Christian 73-60 on Sunday. In a conference tournament, that extra day of rest can make a significant difference in such a close matchup.

Adding more fuel to Corpus Christi’s fire, they won the first meeting between these two teams. They split their regular-season meetings with the Islanders, but beat New Orleans at home 83-69 on December 31 while the only loss came in overtime at New Orleans on February 9, 84-78. Take that as evidence that Texas A&M-Corpus Christi already proved they could beat New Orleans by double digits this season. The only loss was a close game that went into OT.

Even that close loss paints a picture that tilts the field towards Corpus Christi. Texas A&M had advantages in the paint (40-32), fast-break points (21-8), and bench points (25-16). Those categories typically travel well during tournament play as they demonstrate strengths like athleticism, depth, and easy buckets.

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi even holds a slight edge over recent form. The Islanders won three of their last four regular-season games to close the year with quality wins over East Texas A&M, Northwestern State, and Southeastern Louisiana while New Orleans lost to Southeastern Louisiana and McNeese just before the tournament began.

My final thought is that Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is in a great spot to cover a small number here. They’re the fresher team, finished better in the Southland regular-season standings, have already beaten New Orleans by 14 points, and only need to win by a possession or two to cover.

Jim's Play: Take: 544. Texas AM Corpus (Southland Conf Game of the Year)

I'll look to lay the big points here tonight with the Cleveland Cavs over the Sixers.  The NBA Injury Report has Joel Embiid out, Tyrese Maxey out and Paul George out for Philadelphia, with VJ Edgecombe questionable. The 76ers will be extremely short-handed Monday night when they travel to play the Cavs.

Cleveland is also getting a favorable matchup at an ideal time. Per Reuters, the Cavaliers already defeated the 76ers twice this season. Monday’s contest takes place without large portions of Philadelphia’s offensive core. That becomes significant with the line settling in the Cavaliers -11.5 to -12.5 range because Cleveland doesn’t need to play well to win by 10-plus points against Embiid and company.

A third reason to lean towards Cleveland is the bounce-back game. The Cavs fell to Boston on Sunday, but Donovan Mitchell dropped 30 points and Evan Mobley finished with 24. Cleveland still has the top-end talent to score efficiently, and good teams often play well after stumbling. Philadelphia presents a much easier game than Boston did.

Finally, the back-to-back situation for Philadelphia favors the home team. The 76ers travel to Cleveland without its stars and will have far less room for error on offense. Mitchell and Mobley should be available to control the pace of the game, and if Cleveland defends like an average team, Philadelphia might not score enough to keep them inside a large number.

As Cleveland has the advantage in depth, schedule and injury report, I believe the Cavs are the better side to win by margin. They should be able to pull away by the second half and cover the spread.

Jim's Play: Take: 548. Cavaliers