Jim Feist

This rivalry always brings energy. TCU leads the all-time series 59–54–7. For this season, both Baylor and TCU come in at 4-2. The betting market has TCU as a 3-point favorite, and the over/under is in the 65.5 range (66.5 in some books).

What supports the “over” case is that both offenses have shown they can put up points, and both defenses have vulnerabilities that can be exploited. Baylor is averaging 36.3 points per game offensively, though their defense gives up 29.7 points per game. TCU’s offense is averaging about 35.3 PPG, while their defense concedes around 24.7 PPG. That suggests both sides are capable of putting up moderate output, making a high-scoring game plausible.

Baylor’s quarterback Sawyer Robertson has been one of their consistent weapons. In their recent win vs. Kansas State, he threw for 345 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT. Baylor’s passing offense is a key part of their identity and their ability to stretch defenses. On the ground, Bryson Washington has chipped in, but Baylor’s strength leans toward getting chunk plays through the air. Also, Baylor’s defense tends to struggle in stopping big plays in the pass game — that opens the door for TCU to hit quick strikes.

On TCU’s side, quarterback Josh Hoover is capable of pushing tempo and making big throws. Baylor’s defensive metrics in pass defense are among the weaker spots, making them susceptible to explosive gains. Also, Baylor ranks low in run-defense metrics (for example, in defensive EPA per rush), so if TCU leans on a balanced attack, they could get enough yardage on the ground to force Baylor’s defense to stay honest.

Another angle: Baylor has a strong track record in “overs” recently. The total has gone over in 12 of Baylor’s last 16 games. And in Big 12 play, Baylor’s games often produce more points than expected. 

Given the matchup, I see Baylor and TCU trading blows. Each team has the ability to drive into the red zone and find ways to score, especially if there are defensive breakdowns or big plays allowed. 

Jim's Play: 385. Baylor/TCU OVER 

Texas Tech is 6-0 overall and 3-0 in Big 12 play. Arizona State comes in at 4-2 overall and 2-1 in conference games. On Texas Tech’s side, their quarterback Behren Morton has completed 104 of 152 passes for 1,501 yards, with 13 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Their rushing leader, C. Dickey, has carried the ball 92 times for 593 yards and 8 touchdowns. On the receiving end, C. Douglas has 24 catches for 395 yards and 1 touchdown so far.

For Arizona State, Sam Leavitt has thrown 99 of 157 for 1,039 yards, with 8 touchdowns and 3 picks. Running back Raleek Brown has 91 carries for 573 yards (though modest touchdown production so far). At wideout, Jordyn Tyson has 47 receptions for 523 yards and has been one of Leavitt’s primary targets.

Given those numbers, the game looks to be a shootout. Tech’s offense is humming, and Arizona State has at least one explosive threat in Tyson to keep defenses honest. If ASU can avoid stalling drives and Texas Tech continues to execute, there’s a reasonable path for the total to go over.

Jim's Play: 407. Texas Tech/Arizona State OVER

Northwestern comes in with a 4–2 overall record and 2–1 in Big Ten play. Purdue, on the other hand, is 2–4 overall and 0–3 in the conference. On paper, Northwestern has the edge: they’re riding momentum after a signature road win over Penn State, and their offense has grown more consistent with Preston Stone showing poise in recent weeks. Their rushing attack, led by Caleb Komolafe, has picked up steam, Komolafe has 95 carries for 416 yards and 5 touchdowns on the season. Meanwhile, Stone has thrown for 1,081 yards, 8 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Defensively, Northwestern has been stingy in Big Ten play, especially in pass defense.

But Purdue has enough firepower to make this a toss-up, and I’m betting they get it done. Quarterback Ryan Browne has thrown for 1,541 yards with 7 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He also adds a running dimension, he’s rushed for 160 yards and 4 touchdowns this season. The ground game for Purdue is more than just Browne: Devin Mockobee is averaging about 3.9 yards per carry and has chipped in with 4 rushing touchdowns on the season. On the receiving side, Michael Jackson III has 36 catches for 354 yards, and Nitro Tuggle has contributed 16 catches for 287 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Where Purdue can get the edge: explosive plays, especially if Northwestern overcommits to stopping the run; turnovers created by their front seven; and maintaining composure late in the game. Northwestern tends to play methodical, grinding football, but if Purdue can force breaks, they can tilt the momentum. Also, Northwestern’s defense against the run is solid, but if Purdue’s blockers and backs are disciplined, they’ll have lanes.

Northwester is also coming off the high of beating Penn State and might be in for a let down week here today. I'll take Purdue plus the points and look for a straight up win in the process. 

Jim's Play: 363. Purdue 

Coming into the matchup, Utah is 5-1 overall, while BYU is undefeated at 6-0. In Big 12 play, Utah is 2–1 and BYU is 3–0. Utah enters as a 3.5-point favorite against BYU, with the over/under set around 49.5.

A big reason to back Utah is Devon Dampier. He’s been effective both in the air and on the ground, and in the previous week he ran for 120 yards and three touchdowns in a dominant showing. While he doesn’t always throw a heavy volume of passes, his dual-threat ability forces defenses to stay honest. Utah’s offense has shown it can tilt games when their line controls things and their playmakers break free. However, BYU’s been dangerous in the explosive-play department, BYU ranks 67th in offensive explosiveness and 9th on defense in that same metric, which poses a real challenge.

On BYU’s side, quarterback Bear Bachmeier has shouldered a lot of offense this season. His running game also helps neutralize pressure. RB LJ Martin has been a key piece, BYU leans on him to grind yardage and keep Utah’s pass rush honest. WRs like Chase Roberts and Parker Kingston will be targets to stretch the field, especially if BYU dares Utah to defend downfield.

Where Utah can win and cover is in balance and mistake margin. If Dampier keeps defenses guessing, the Utes can avoid becoming one-dimensional. Also, BYU has to be careful with turnovers: they’ve occasionally forced their offense into shaky spots. Utah’s defense, particularly up front and in their rush end presence, can disrupt tempo and force BYU into unfavorable down-and-distances.

Jim's Play: 401. Utah  (Big 12 Game of the Month)