All Free Sports Picks

Ricky's 1* play on BOS.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 games.

- The Marlins are 3-5 in their last 8 games.

- The Red Sox are 7-1 in the last 8 head to head meetings.

Verdict: The value is on the road favorite.

UNDER 8

Cincinnati and San Francisco have value to the under. Cincinnati will send out Nick Lodolo, who has been hit or miss all season really. He has typically bounced back from rough outings and this is a Giants lineup that continues to struggle. The Giants counter with Landen Roupp, who has been able to give them chances to win every time he takes the mound. He’s been on the wrong end of run support, which bodes well here for the under. Both offenses are just too inconsistent to trust. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the UNDER. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Wednesday FREE MLB O/U Play

1-2 TUESDAY! 268-227 54% +1948 since Mid-Dec! The current run has been strong, and today’s card is posted. A BIG 3× Play Card is up for today, and Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”

The Braves nipped the Dodgers, 4-3, Tuesday night. I don't see Atlanta beating LA a second straight time in a pitching matchup of Roki Sasaki vs. AJ Smith-Shawver.

Atlanta's bats have gone cold resulting in a 4-7 record in its last 11 games. The Braves are averaging just 2.4 runs during these past 11 games.

Smith-Shawver is set to make only his third start this season. He has a 6.23 ERA. The Dodgers are first in road scoring. Overall, LA ranks second in batting and OPS.

Sasaki is turning his season around after a bad early start. He has not allowed more than two earned runs during each of his last six starts rendering only two homers during this six-game span.

Rocketman Sports FREE WNBA play Wednesday 8-26-26

Golden State @ Connecticut  (7:00 PM EST)
Play On:  Golden State -13

The Golden State Valkyries travel to Connecticut to take on the Sun on Wednesday night.  Golden State is 26-11 SU overall this year while Connecticut comes in with a 10-27 SU overall record on the season.  Golden State is 15-4 SU overall the past 2 months.  Golden State is 26-12 ATS last 3 years against Eastern Conference opponents.  Golden State is 4-1 SU and ATS overall in this series the past 3 years.  We'll recommend a small play on Golden State tonight!  Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Kansas City Royals +140

The Kansas City Royals are the exact type of team you can make money on down the stretch of the baseball season.  The Royals are out of contention, yet they show up every day.  They are motivated to keep their winning streak going and continue playing the role of spoiler.

The Royals are 9-0 in their last nine games overall while going through their best offensive stretch of the season.  They are scoring 6.5 runs per game in their last eight games.  The Blue Jays have one of the worst offenses in baseball scoring just 3.9 runs per game this season.

Randy Dobnak is 2-1 with a 1.58 ERA in seven starts and two relief appearances for the Royals this season.  He has allowed just 8 earned runs and 2 homers in 45 2/3 innings.  Amazingly, he is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA on the road while firing 23 1/3 shutout innings away from home.  

Spencer Miles has been solid out of the bullpen for the Blue Jays, but he has not fared well as a starter.  Miles is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in his four starts while allowing 14 earned runs in 14 innings.  Bet the Royals Wednesday.

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1* Free Pick on Giants -105

This is a pitching matchup mispriced at the window.

Giants ace Logan Webb carries a 3.75 ERA and 3.83 xERA over 578 plate appearances.

Reds lefty Nick Lodolo counters with a 5.04 ERA and a brutal 6.49 xERA over 338 PA.

That's not a small edge.

That's a two-run swing in expected run prevention.

Lodolo is also in freefall.

His last time out on August 21, Arizona hung 10 hits and 6 earned runs on him in 3.1 innings.

Opponents are slugging .483 against him with a .382 xwOBA.

He gets no favors in Oracle Park, but his stuff isn't playing regardless of venue.

Webb's numbers at Oracle back the price too.

On August 9 he threw 8 innings of 1-run ball against Detroit.

On August 15 he went 6 innings and gave up 1 earned run to Colorado.

The Boston start last week was an outlier, and that's the whole opposition argument.

I hear the pushback on the Giants lineup.

Chapman, Adames, Bader, and Mayer are all on the IL, and the middle of the order is Buddy Kennedy and Osleivis Basabe.

Fair.

But Cincinnati is missing Steer and Toglia at first, and Lodolo's contact profile suggests any lineup with a pulse gets to him.

You don't need 5 runs when your starter is projected to give up 2.

At -105 with the better starter, better ballpark fit, and the worse pitcher wobbling, I'm not overthinking this.

I like the Giants

1* MLB - Cubs/Dbacks FREE PICK on Cubs -101

Dave's Wednesday Free Play:

1* on Cleveland Guardians -135

The Key: The Cleveland Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in all 6 victories.  Joey Cantillo is 9-7 with a 3.80 ERA in 27 starts this year with 144 strikeouts in 130 1/3 innings.  Cantillo sports a 2.18 ERA in his last 5 starts while yielding only 5 ER in 20 2/3 innings.  He went 6 shutout innings in a 7-2 win over the Angels in his lone lifetime start against them earlier this year.  Grayson Rodriquez is 4-5 with a 6.55 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 14 starts for the Angels this year.  He is 1-3 with a 9.09 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in 8 home starts, yielding 34 ER in 33 2/3 innings.  Take Cleveland.

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1* Free Wiseguy Play on Orioles/Cardinals over 8 -120

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Los Angeles Dodgers -127

Roki Sasaki has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in six consecutive starts and hasn't suffered a loss since June 26th.  AJ Smith-Shawver makes his 3rd start of the season for the Braves as he works his way back from injury.  He has a 6.23 ERA in his first two starts, and he just allowed 4 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings to the Twins in his last start on August 19th.  With such a big starting pitching advantage, Los Angeles is the play today.  Give me the Dodgers.

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1* Best Bet on White Sox -122

No analysis provided.

 2026 WNBA 10* GAME OF THE YEAR HEADLINES HUMP DAY

The Wednesday Comp play in EFL Cup Soccer action is on the Over 3 goals on the Tottenham Hotspur vs Charlton match. Totty will look to rebound from a terrible 3-0 opening day loss to Brentford. Now they have Charlton coming in and while they dont have the overall quality to get the win they can put the ball in the back of the net. Totty will get multiple goals here but remain leaky in the back field. Charlton has done well in league games thus far but has lost all 5 meetings to Tottenham allowing an average of 3 goals in those contests. With the Hosts looking to put a nice win at home against a team like Charlton who has solid strikers we will back the over 3 goals here. GL Rob V-

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. MLS Soccer Take Houston over San Jose (8:30 p.m. EST, Saturday August 29) We have been doing well with our free soccer picks, so let’s grab another winner this Saturday. San Jose was high in the MLS standings to start the season with nine wins in 10 matches, but they haven’t won since before the World Cup. Since June, they have five losses and a draw, with a goal differential of -14. They hosted another struggling side, Minnesota, on Saturday, and this was the worst loss yet, a 5-1 home loss. They gave up during that match, and that seemed like a spot where they might circle the wagons and give an inspired performance. But instead, it seems like they didn’t care. They have been plummeting in the standings, and we just don’t see them raising their level of play here on the road against Houston, the No. 2 side in the Western Conference. Houston has collected 22 points at home in 10 matches, with seven outright wins and a +6 goal differential. They have won 11 of 15 home meetings against San Jose. The Earthquakes have conceded at least a goal now in 17 straight matches, and the defense and goalkeeping has been dreadful and seems to be getting worse by the match. We think this number will rise as the match gets closer, so jump on this one early!

R&R Totals FREE WNBA Over-Under Wednesday 8-26-26

OVER 150 Golden State/Connecticut

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Wednesday's Free MLB Pick

PLAY ON: White Sox -122 

Looking at the Week 0 board this year, one number keeps staring me right in the face. TCU laying a touchdown against North Carolina over in Dublin feels like the cleanest play on the early slate.

I have been on this one for a while now. TCU has the more settled roster, especially in the trenches, and that continuity matters more than most people want to admit in Week 0. North Carolina is still sorting through a heavy overhaul in Belichick’s second season, with a new offensive coordinator trying to install a system on the fly and a pile of new bodies who have not taken meaningful snaps together yet. In college football, that gap tends to show up early, especially when both teams have to fly across the ocean for a noon kick.

Neutral-site openers have always been kind to the more physical, more experienced side. Over the last fifteen years, favorites laying between six and eight points in true neutral-site season openers have covered right around 58 percent of the time. At standard juice you only need to hit 52.4 percent to break even, so that edge is real. When you tighten the filter to games that involved long-haul or overseas travel, the favorite’s cover rate climbs closer to 61 percent and the under hits nearly 60 percent of the time. The average total in those spots has finished almost four points under the number. Jet lag is no joke, and neither is limited practice time before a transatlantic flight.

TCU has been the more consistent outfit under Sonny Dykes. His teams usually play with a clear physical identity and they do not mind grinding it out early in the season. North Carolina, meanwhile, has spent the last couple of years looking like a roster still trying to figure out who belongs where. Historical trends for ACC teams opening against Big 12 competition on neutral fields lean toward the side with better line continuity, and TCU checks that box. Favorites in this exact range that also held a clear edge up front have covered better than 60 percent since the mid-2010s. That is the kind of number that keeps the lights on if you stay disciplined.

I will take the under as a secondary piece if the total sits near 48. Early-season scoring is often suppressed when teams are still installing, traveling, and playing a little tight. Both sides prefer a physical brand of football, and that style rarely produces fireworks in the first half of a Week 0 game on foreign soil.

Hawai’i getting points at Stanford and Memphis as a small dog against UNLV are fine secondary looks if you like chasing value on the dog side. I generally leave the massive numbers alone unless the total is screaming. This TCU spot is different. It is the kind of early-season situation where the sharper side of the board usually cashes, and the travel factor only adds another layer of protection.

I have been wrong before and I will be wrong again, but this one sits right with me. Continuity, trenches, travel, and the historical numbers all point the same direction. If the line drifts a half-point either way I am still on it. Good luck if you decide to ride along.

Note: I bet this selection while was able to get -7. But it s still good at this number.

Please unless your a weekend warrior do not buy off the hook.

BUYING OFF THE HOOK 

Buying off the hook is one of those moves that feels smart in the moment and slowly bleeds you over time. I have watched plenty of sharp money and square money both fall into the same trap, and the long-term numbers do not lie. You are paying extra juice to move the line half a point or a full point so a common final margin turns into a push or a win instead of a loss. Classic example is laying the three and a half instead of the three, or taking the plus three and a half instead of the plus three. The hook disappears, your ticket looks safer, and the price quietly climbs from minus one-ten to minus one-twenty or worse.

That extra juice is the real problem. Standard minus one-ten needs you to cash about fifty-two point four percent just to break even. Jump to minus one-twenty and you need roughly fifty-four and a half percent. At minus one-thirty you are staring at fifty-six and a half percent. Those two to four extra points of required win rate add up fast across a season. The probability of a game landing exactly on the number you bought off is almost never high enough to cover the cost over hundreds of plays.

Football is where the conversation gets loudest because the key numbers actually matter. Three and seven have historically been the biggest hooks in both the NFL and college game. League-wide data over the last decade shows finals of three happening in the high teens percentage range and sevens in the low double digits. Buying off those numbers is the only spot where the math gets closer to break-even. Even then you are usually still overpaying. Outside of those true keys the half-points become pure juice leaks. Teams that routinely buy from three and a half to three or from seven and a half to seven have shown thin or negative edges once you factor in the price.

Basketball is a different animal. NBA and college totals and spreads move around half-points constantly, but the distribution of final margins is flatter. Landing exactly on a three or a four happens less often than football’s big keys, so the value of buying the half-point is even thinner. Same story in baseball with the run line. Buying from one and a half to one or two and a half to two costs you juice that the frequency of those exact margins rarely repays. Soccer worldwide, whether Premier League, La Liga, Serie A or the big South American leagues, runs mostly on Asian handicaps where the half-goal and quarter-goal moves are already priced aggressively. Buying further off the number there is usually just giving the book more of your money for protection you do not need.

I have seen the same pattern in hockey, tennis, and the rest of the major venues. The public loves the feeling of being off the hook. The long-term winners almost never make it a habit. They would rather shop for the best available number, take the standard juice, and live with the occasional hook loss. The ones who grind out profits treat buying points like a last resort, not a regular tool. Only when the price is unusually soft on a true key number does the play even enter the conversation, and those spots are rare.

The bottom line is simple. Occasional, selective buys off a real key number at a fair price can be tolerable. Making it standard operating procedure is a slow leak that compounds against you. The juice almost always costs more than the protection is worth. Stay patient, shop the numbers, and let the hooks fall where they fall. That approach has kept more bankrolls healthy than any amount of buying ever will.

Alex Smart

My selection is on Los Angeles over Cleveland at 4:05 pm et on Wednesday.

Few bettors will want any part of the Angels after they blew an early 5-0 and late 6-5 lead en route to an 8-6 extra innings loss against the Guardians last night. We'll back them, however, as they send Grayson Rodriguez to the mound against Joey Cantillo. Of course, Cleveland will be trying to complete back-to-back series sweeps after cruising past Colorado over the weekend as well. Cantillo has already eclipsed his career high in innings pitched and is perhaps showing some signs of wear as he has issued seven walks in just 10 2/3 innings of work over his last two starts. The Padres and Rockies weren't able to take advantage in his last two outings but I think the Angels will in this spot. Rodriguez checks in off his best start of the season, allowing just two unearned runs over seven innings in an 18-3 romp over the Astros last week. It's been a difficult return from injury for Rodriguez but I don't think he'll be asked to do too much here. At the current price, I believe the Halos are worth a flyer here. Take Los Angeles (8*).

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Cubs vs Diamondbacks MLB Free Pick

The Angle(s): This looks like a good spot to back a Cubs team which has scored four runs or more in five consecutive games and nine of their last 10. Even in Tuesday's loss, run production was not the issue, and with left-hander Matthew Boyd (8-2, 4.15 ERA) on the mound they may not need to score that many runs to win. 

The Bet: Cubs (3%). 

Mike was 0-2 yesterday but looking longer-term, he's on a 13-5 PREMIUM PICK RUN, and a 62-46 (57%) HEATER with MLB runlines dating back to March 27, 2025! With 3 premium picks (2 runlines) posted for Wednesday, you know a big bounce back is imminent.