|NBA | Apr 21, 2019
Warriors vs. Clippers
-9 -106 at PINNACLE
Ricky's 1* Free Play on the Golden State Warriors.
I had a play on the Warriors in their Game 3 win. If you didn’t get a chance to read that analysis, I believe it’s worth a quick look right now, as for the most part the logic behind that one directly pertains to this particular selection as well for me:
As a “key angle” I stated: - History of success when dealing with adversity. Golden State dominated in its 121-104 home win in Game 1, but then collapsed in LA’s 135-131 historic come from behind win in Game 2. Can anyone say “letdown spot” for the Clippers here? The Warriors have won championships without DeMarcus Cousins and if they’re going to do it this season again, they’ll have to do it without the big man, as he tore his achilles in the Game 2 setback. Golden State though is filled with veteran talent and I expect it to step up and take advantage of this content Clippers side with a resounding victory.
- Golden State is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 when playing with two days rest.
- The Warriors are 16-10 ATS in their last 26 after scoring 110 points or more in four straight games.
- The Clippers are a horrible 11-21 ATS in their last 32 as a home underdog, including only 3-9 ATS this year.
The verdict: I think the Clippers have hit the wall. Golden State is without Cousins, but its veteran core is about to close out this opening round series strong in my opinion. Consider the defending champs in Game 4!
|NBA | Apr 20, 2019
76ers vs. Nets
-2½ -110 at MIRAGE
John Ryan Sports
5-STAR WAGER ON THE PHILADELPHIA 76ERS AS THEY TAKE ON THE BROOKLYN NETS IN GAME-4 SET TO START AT 3:05 PM EST
Here is a database situational query that has earned a 56-24 ATS record for 70% wins since 1995 and instructs us to play on road favorites (PHILADELPHIA) off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival and are now facing an opponent off a home loss by 10 points or more. Now, if we adjust this query for the playoffs and the first round it is simply play on road favorites in the first round of the playoffs off a game where they won by 10 or more points. Since 2012, this playoff edition has earned a 20-11 ATS record for 65% winners.
From the machine learning side of the street the 76ers are projected to score 111 or more points and have a minimum rebounding edge over the Nets of nine. In past games where the 76ers have met or exceeded these measures they have earned a 69-4 SU record winning the games by an average of 15.3 points and a 59-14-0 ATS mark for 81% wins and covering the spread by an average of 11.5 points.
Take the 76ers