Free College Football Picks

7* NCAAF Ole Miss/Alabama Free Pick

PLAY ON ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE -7

Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on Central Michigan plus the points over South Alabama at 5 pm et on Saturday.

It's going to be awfully tough for South Alabama to avoid a letdown after securing perhaps the biggest win in program history - a 33-7 rout of Oklahoma State in Stillwater last Saturday. Here, it will be up against a revenge-minded Central Michigan squad that dropped a 38-24 decision, at home no less, as a six-point favorite in this matchup last season. The fact that the Chippewas 'only' lost by 14 points in that game was impressive considering they held onto the football for just 22 minutes. There's a path to success for the Chips in this rematch as they have an effective ground game and a defense that can contain the Jaguars offense. CMU QB Jase Bauer has done what's been asked of him so far this season, taking care of the football (no interceptions) and showing the ability to make plays with his legs. Note that South Alabama has lost one of its top offensive weapons, WR Devin Voisin, for the season due to a knee injury. This is simply too many points to be giving a Chips squad that will relish the opportunity to take a step down in class after travelling to South Bend to face the Irish last week. Take Central Michigan.

This is a free play on BAMA.

The public can't wait to fade Alabama this week, and it's easy to see why. They lost at home versus Texas, and then they just barely beat South Florida last week. Well I certainly wasn't surprised by their loss to Texas, with a Non-Conference Game of the Year on the Longhorns. I expected Texas to win that game, so when they rallied in the fourth quarter I wasn't shocked. The thing is, Ole Miss ain't Texas, and Jaxon Dart ain't Quinn Ewers. Before we completely condemn Jalen Milroe as a failure (after 3 starts), let's take a look at Jaxon Dart's first three starts at Ole Miss. He averaged less than 200 yards per game on less than 65 percent passing with three TDs and two INTs in games against Georgia Tech, Central Arkansas and Troy. There are some rumors floating around that Milroe didn't sit on the bench last week because of poor play, but rather serving a silent suspension for a poor attitude. Lets see how he responds after Saban named him the starter moving forward. The Rebels come in 3-0 straight up and 3-0 ATS, but a close look at those games doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. They were losing to Tulane through the first three quarters, and only a comedy of errors in the final minute allowed them to come back and cover against the Green Wave. Sure they beat Georgia Tech by 25 last week, but Haynes King threw for over 300 yards and he accounted for three TDs. The Rebels allowed the Georgia Tech offense to rack up 474 total yards of offense. I think you have to be quite naive to think the Crimson Tide are going to look anything like they did last week in Tampa. Roll Tide!

GL,

Jesse Schule

Rice -2.5 1.1% Free Play

I expect a bit of a let down from South Florida on Saturday following their strong effort against Alabama at home.  You could say the same thing happened to Alabama after a loss against Texas as they went through the motions holding on late to a 17-3 win.  Rice on the other hand has back to back strong performances upsetting Houston and putting up 59 against Texas Southern and you could say things are starting to click for JT Daniels. 

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Ohio/Bowling Green UNDER 45

The Ohio Bobcats are a dead nuts UNDER team this season.  They are 4-0 to the UNDER with combined scores of 33, 37, 27 and 17 points thus far.  They have an elite defense that is allowing just 11.8 points per game, 244 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  Now they take on a very weak Bowling Green offense that doesn't know who they will be starting at quarterback yet this week.  

The Falcons managed just 6 points and 205 total yards in their 31-6 loss to Michigan last week.  Starter Connor Bazelak sat out the Michigan game with a leg injury, backup Camden Orth had to leave with an injury in the 2nd quarter, and walk-on Hayden Timosciek was forced into duty.  He was awful to say the least with a pair of interceptions and only 33 yards on his 10 pass attempts.  

But I have been impressed with this Bowling Green defense this season as they limited Michigan to just 312 total yards and held a high-powered Liberty attack to 391 total yards.  That's a Liberty team that is running it up on everyone else.  Liberty had 526 total yards against New Mexico State and 55 points and 569 total yards against Buffalo.

This Ohio offense has been very disappointing this season with big hype due to having what was expected to be the best QB in the MAC in Kurtis Rourke.  But he clearly isn't 100% healthy in the early going and it has shown.  Rourke has led the Bobcats to just 16.8 points per game, 328 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play through four games.  They actually had their best offensive numbers in the game he got injured early and had to leave in the opener against San Diego State.

Ohio is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine conference road games.  Bowling Green is 18-6 UNDER in its last 24 home games after scoring 14 points or fewer.  The Bobcats are 8-0 UNDER in their last eight games vs. bad teams that win 25% to 40% of their games.  These are also two of the slowest teams on offense with Bowling Green ranking 126th out of 133 teams in seconds per play and Ohio ranking 92nd.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

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Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Cal/Washington UNDER 59.5

The Key: Both Cal and Washington have elite defenses.  Cal held Auburn to 14 points and 230 total yards two weeks ago.  They held a potent North Texas offense to 21 points and 225 total yards.  And last week they held Idaho State to 17 points.  Washington held Boise State to 19 points, Tulsa to 10 and Michigan State to 7.  Both offenses are improved, but I think we see a defensive battle in this Pac-12 opener.  That has been the case in recent matchups with the UNDER going 4-1 in the last 5 with 49, 55, 39, 22 and 45 combined points.  None sniffed this 59.5-point total.  Take the UNDER.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on LSU -17.5

There's nothing quite like a Saturday night game at home in Baton Rouge.  LSU has one of the biggest home-field advantages in the country in this situation.  And boy have they looked good since that opening loss to Florida State that was much closer than the final score would indicate.  The Tigers went on to crush Grambling 72-0 and easily cover at Mississippi State 41-14 as 9.5-point road favorites.  Now they host a Arkansas team that has been underwhelming thus far to say the least.  They only scored 28 points as 38-point favorites against Kent State, which is one of the worst FBS teams in the country.  And last week they were upset at home 38-31 by BYU as 8-point favorites, and that's a down BYU team this season.  This is a big step up in class for the Razorbacks here Saturday night.  That will be reflected on the scoreboard.  Give me LSU.

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This is a play on the PURDUE BOILERMAKERS for our Friday Free Play. Wisconsin is off to a 2-1 start but it is a misleading one. The Badgers defeated Buffalo is their season opener and the Bulls are one of the worst teams in the FBS as they are 0-3 and ranked No. 128. Wisconsin then travelled to Washington St. where it actually outgained the Cougars but lost because of a -3 turnover differential which was foreshadowing to last week. They picked up a 21-point win over Georgia Southern despite getting outgained 455-451 as they benefitted from six turnovers from the Eagles. There has been at least a two-turnover differential in all three games so there is not a clear picture of how Wisconsin actually is in an equal scenario yet it comes in favored on the road in its Big 10 opener. Purdue is 1-2 as it lost to a very good Fresno St. team to open the season with a late touchdown by the Bulldogs to seal it. The Boilermakers took care of Virginia Tech on the road as they outgained the Hokies by 141 total yards and then last week saw a misleading final as they were outgained only 455-403 against Syracuse but lost the turnover battle 4-1 and were unable to contain the Orange rushing game. 11 penalties for 127 yards did not help matters either. They face another good rushing attack this week but Purdue is still allowing only 3.9 ypc and can slow the Badgers down and the back half of the defense has been good by allowing only 56.6 percent completions. Offensively, the Boilermakers have been efficient through the air with quarterback Hudson Card, a transfer from Texas, upping his completion percentage each game while throwing for three touchdowns and just one interception. Purdue has played the tougher schedule, ranked No. 26 compared to Wisconsin at No. 77 and a cleaner game here can get them the outright win. Play (308) Purdue Boilermakers

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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #355 Over in Oklahoma State @ Iowa State (4p.m., Saturday, September 23 FS1) You do not find many totals this low in college football and we feel one of these teams with have a scoring outburst. It appears Brock Purdy covered up a bunch of bad coaching at Iowa State and Matt Campbell is no longer a hot coaching commodity. He needs to get this offense on track and they need to make major adjustments for this game. The Pokes are coming off a bad loss last time out to South Alabama and they scored only 7 points in that game. Look for one team to reach the high twenties and that should all this game to easily go over the posted total. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card featuring plays in basketball, baseball, and football. Sign-up now and let 52 years of handicapping experience work for you.