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1* Best Bet on Saints

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Browns vs Eagles 
1 ET | Citizens Bank Park | FOX 
5-Unit Bet on the Browns priced as 9.5-point underdogs. 

The Eagles are a team in flux, and it all starts at the top of the coaching staff and then trickles down to the players, who really do not know which coach is steering the ship. They will get back their two top wide receivers in AJ Brown and Davonte Smith, who both will have a significant impact on the performance of the offense. However, they need to execute no matter who is on the field of play and that has been largely absent since week 1. 

Currently, both WR are expected to start this Sunday, but they are listed as questionable Monday morning. The market has priced them as starting so getting 50% of your bet placed now is a wise strategy because if either does not start this line is going to move toward 7.5 points ahead of the kickoff. 

Offensive multi-All-Pro tackle Lane Johnson is expected to start but is listed as questionable, His level of play has hurt the offensive line’s pass protection, and the result has been that QB Hurts gets flushed out of the pocket early and he then holds on to the ball too long searching for an open receiver.  

The Eagles rank 7th in the NFL gaining an average of 366 YPG but rank 17th averaging 5.5 yard per play and 31st averaging two turnovers per game. The Eagles ground attack led by Barkley has been their saving grace and as a unit rank 4th averaging 154 yards per game and they will need to pound the rock successfully against the Browns defense and control the clock as a game-winning plan. 

The Eagles have had their BYE week and expect them to come in with a offensive game plan to attack the middle of the field with vertical crossing routes. Currently, the Eagles have not stretched defenses with vertical routes as they have averaged just 6.29 adjusted yards per pass attempt. The formula for this ratio is: 

(Passing yards + 20*passing TDs – 45* interceptions)/(pass attempts) 

930 passing yards + 20*4 passing TDs- 4*45 interceptions)/(132 pass attempts) 
(930+80-180)/(132) 

830/132 = 6.29 adjust passing yards per attempt. 

By comparison, the Broncos are last with a 3.6 adjusted passing yards per attempt and the 5-0 Vikings are tops with an impressive 9.6 adjusted passing yards per attempt. So, the Eagles must improve on this passing metric not just this coming week but over the remainder of the season if they are going to make any deep run in the playoffs.  

The Cleveland Defense 

The largest problem for the Eagles offensive line to navigate is the fact that the Browns defense ranks 6th with a 32% blitz percentage, 7th with a 12.4% quarterback knockdown, and have pressured the quarterback on 25% of their defensive plays. The Browns will blitz even more in this game looking to prevent Hurts from looking downfield to complete large chunk gain passes.  

The Philadelphia Defense 

To sum up the Eagles defense with just one meaningful metric is that they rank 26th with a –31.2 expected points contributed by the defense and that compares poorly to the NFL league average of –10.5 this season. Before the season started, the Eagles were expected to score a ton of points and simply outscore their opponents to earn wins. However, the offense is scoring just 21 PPG and the defense allowing even more. My experience tells me that the problems on the sidelines between the coaches and the offensive issues with executing plays to move the chains is not going to improve simply with the return of three players. 

The Analytics in 2024 

The larger underdogs have performed extremely well from a straight-up (SU) and against-the-spread (ATS) in the first five weeks of the season. Teams priced as the underdog, including pick-em have produced a 29-48 SU and 40-36-1 ATS record (53%) so far. Underdogs of 6 or more points have produced a highly profitable 9-10 SU and 16-3 ATS record (84%) and marks the highest ATS win percentage through five weeks ever since 1989 and the highest since the 1999 season where these pups went 9-22 SU and 20-8-3 ATS for 71.4% winning bets. If these dogs were on the road, they have gone 8-8 SU and 14-2 ATS (88%) this season and the highest win percentage sice 1999 when they went 8-18 SU and 18-6-2 ATS (75%). 

The NFL Betting Algorithm for Week 6 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 40-55 SU and 62-33 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet on underdogs priced between 3.5 and 10 points. 

That dog has committed no more than a single turnover in each of their two previous games. 

They are facing a favorite, whose defense forced zero turnovers in their previous game. 

If the favorite is coming off the BYE week our underdogs have barked fiercely going 5-6 SU and 9-2 ATS for 82% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.  

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Saints/Chiefs under

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

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Saints +5.5

The Saints have value here grabbing the points on MNF. The Chiefs continue to find ways to win, but they were hit hard with the injury bug as Rasheed Rice is out for the season now. That’s a huge hit to this team as he was one of the main targets for Mahomes. New Orleans offensively can strike at any moment as they have a ton of playmakers, both in the backfield and out wide. They’re going to lean on Kamara early in this one and control the time of possession. They can not only frustrate this Chiefs defense, but they can keep Mahomes and company off the field. They’re going to have their chances to steal this game as they can compete with the Chiefs. Grab the points. My daily free plays are meant to be 5* bankroll plays. Remember folks, money management is the key to profits when it comes to sports gambling. Strong lean on the SAINTS +5.5 tonight. You know what to do. Hop ON! Good Luck, Razor Ray

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