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Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Green Bay Packers -2

The New Orleans Saints are off to a 2-0 start this season against a pretty weak schedule.  I think they are getting too much respect for their two wins, and they should be at least a 3-point underdog here against the Green Bay Packers.  We are getting good value here laying this short number with the Packers at home.

The Saints opened the season with a 1-point home win over the Tennessee Titans despite being gifted 3 interceptions from Ryan Tannehill.  Last week, the Saints beat the Panthers by 3 on the road.  That's the same Panthers team that lost by 14 on the road to the Falcons the week prior and looks like one of the worst teams in the NFL to this point.  That makes this a short week for the Saints after playing on Monday Night Football, and this is clearly a step up in class for them this week.

I think if you asked the Packers prior to the season they would have taken a 1-1 start considering their first two games came on the road.  After blasting the Bears 38-20, the Packers blew a 12-point 4th quarter lead to the Falcons last week and lost 25-24 on a last-minute field goal.  You can bet they will be out for blood this week after playing seven great quarters and one terrible one that cost them a 2-0 start.

Now the Packers will be playing their home opener with one of the biggest home-field advantages in the NFL.  They will be fired up in support of Jordan Love's home debut.  Love has been very good with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio and 35 rushing yards and 7.0 per carry thus far.  After not having two of his best weapons against the Falcons in WR Christian Watson and RB Aaron Jones, there's a chance he gets both back this week.  Watson returned to practice and is probable, while Jones is a 50/50 proposition.

The Packers are fully healthy on defense and improved.  The Saints are only scoring 18.0 points per game this season and are dealing with injuries of their own on offense.  They just aren't nearly as explosive without Alvin Kamara, who will miss this game as well.  His replacement Jamaal Williams is doubtful with a hamstring injury.  QB Taysom Hill has been getting a lot of work in the backfield as a result, and even he's questionable with a knee injury.

Matt LaFleur is 12-3 ATS in September games as the coach of Green Bay.  LaFleur is 10-2 ATS off a road loss as the coach of the Packers.  Green Bay is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. conference opponents.  The Packers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games coming off a road game.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

No. 4 Ranked Football Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has SIX Top-10 Football Finishes (#3 2018, #3 2017, #4 2009, #5 2014, #6 2012, #10 2008) to his credit! Jack has put together a MASSIVE 1590-1334 Football Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $123,820! That includes a 911-728 Football Run over his last 1639 plays!

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