Free NFL Picks

Fifty and a half in Arlington is the number I want you holding. Not because both defenses are fake. Because 50.5 is the number the market hung on a series that just lived 53, 66, 60, 48 and 55.

You are not fading defense. You are fading a 50.5 that is priced like this rivalry forgot how it scores. Cowboys lead it 81-49-2. That is the side of the ledger. The total is the other page. Last six meetings: 30-23, 44-22, 23-19, 34-26, 38-10, 45-10. Combined 53, 66, 42, 60, 48, 55. Five of six cashed a 50. Last two in this building: 44-22 and 23-19. One smash, one under on a 43.5. Public money will hammer the under because Week 1 was 24-22 and 28-20 and “NFC East always stalls in September.” That is how 50.5 gets to the window looking fat instead of the number that does not match Christmas, October, Thanksgiving, and January in this series.

Do not buy this down to 49.5 and pay extra juice to sleep better. The 50.5 is the reason I am writing it. Sit on your hands. Let the first quarter look like October in Dallas. If it is 14-10 at the half, the over is already doing its job.

Sunday 4:25. Dallas -4.5. Washington 0-1 after 24-22 in Philadelphia. Dallas 0-1 after 28-20 to the Giants. Combined 46 and 48 last week. That is not this series. This series in the last two years has been 66 and 53 and 60. Cowboys 3,150 points all-time in the rivalry, Washington 2,582. The building does not keep these games in the 30s unless somebody forgets to throw it.

Bet the over 50.5 in Commanders–Cowboys games.
Last 6 meetings: 53, 66, 42, 60, 48, 55. Five of six cashed 50. Average 54.0. (+3.6 units, ROI=54.5%)

Bet the over when these two meet in Dallas and the number is 50 or higher.
Last meeting here: 44-22. Posted 55.5 and still went over. (+1.0 units, ROI=90.9%)

Bet overs in this series when five of the last six already cleared 47.
38-10 was the “low” one and it still cashed 47. (+4.0 units, ROI=60.6%)

1* NFL - Steelers/Patriots FREE PICK on Patriots -5

1* Free Pick on Raiders +7

The Chargers opened as double-digit home favorites against Arizona last week and lost 26-14.

Now the market is asking them to win by more than a touchdown against a better opponent.

That's a price I'll take.

Both teams have played 1 game this season, so this is about the matchup and the number, not streaks.

And the Week 1 tape favors Vegas.

The Raiders posted 5 sacks against Miami, tied for the NFL lead, with Kwity Paye getting 2 and Maxx Crosby adding 1.5.

Justin Herbert was sacked 3 times by Arizona and threw a pick.

That pass rush against that protection is the core of this play.

Herbert's weapons are thinning out too.

Ladd McConkey is questionable with a rib injury, and KeAndre Lambert-Smith landed on injured reserve.

If McConkey sits or plays limited, this offense runs through Quentin Johnston, who caught 2 of 6 targets last week.

On the other side, Ashton Jeanty went 23 for 102 on the ground and added 6 catches for 45 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He controls tempo and keeps this game short.

The fair knock on Vegas is Kirk Cousins.

Two interceptions and 160 passing yards in Week 1 is real, and he'll give one away here too.

But I don't need Cousins to win the game.

I need Jeanty and that front seven to keep it inside a touchdown, and the Raiders held Miami to 13 points and 259 total yards doing exactly that.

Getting the full 7 covers the most common margin in football.

That's line value.

I like the Raiders

UNDER 48

Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the UNDER. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

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