Free NFL Picks

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Rams/Bears over 48 -110

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

Rams vs Bears 
6:30 EST, Sunday, January 18 
Soldier Field, Chicago 
5-Unit bet on the OVER currently priced at 48.5 points 

Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 5 units preflop on the OVER and then add the remaining 2 units at 45.5 points. If you are expecting scoring volatility to be lower/slower, then consider betting 4 Units preflop, 2 units at 45.5 points and 1 unit at 42.5 points. The second quarter had the highest average scoring quarter (13.6 points) in the divisional round. So, if there is going to be a slower than usual quarter, the first quarter would be the one.  

Here is a situational betting algorithm that has gone 18-9-1 OVER for 67% winning bets over the past 15 seasons, including the playoffs. The requirements are: 

Bet the OVER with a team coming off a home win. 

In that home win they trailed by 17 or more points at the half. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 17-9 OVER record for 65.4% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are:  

Bet the OVER with a home teams playing in the divisional round of the playoffs. 

In their Wild Card game, the home team saw the OVER win the money and covered it by 7 or more points. 

In addition, divisional round favorites that scored 30 or more points in their Wild Card win has seen the OVER compile a profitable 25-14 mark for 64% winning bets since 2002; 16-8 OVER for 70% winning bets when they scored 34 or more points. 

The Rams went OVER their team total by 6 points. The OVER is 22-10 for 69% winning bets in the divisional round of the playoffs with a team coming off a game in which they went OVER their team total by 6 or more points. 

10-UNIT MAX NFL Divisional Round Titan Bet goes this weekend so do not miss out and get it now for 25% off the regular price.

Ryan is 12-2 ATS over his last 14, 10-UNIT MAX bet releases and this one is backed by an incredible 92% ATS situation that will blow your mind and a ton more.

As the NFC Divisional Round unfolds on January 18, 2026, all eyes turn to Soldier Field in Chicago, where the Los Angeles Rams face off against the home-underdog Bears in a 6:30 PM ET kickoff. With temperatures dipping to around 20°F and snow in the forecast, this matchup promises a gritty, weather-influenced battle that could sway betting outcomes. The Rams enter as 3.5-point favorites with a total points line set at 48.5, reflecting their offensive prowess against a Bears squad that's shown flashes but struggled defensively throughout the season. League-wide trends in the 2026 NFL season highlight a favorable environment for underdogs, who have covered the spread in 52.7% of games, while favorites have managed only 47.3% success against the number. This dynamic plays into divisional playoff history, where road underdogs between +3.5 and +9.5 have posted a strong 29-17-1 record against the spread over the last 47 instances, a 63% clip that suggests value in backing teams like the Bears if the line moves further. However, home teams overall have hovered around a 49.8% cover rate this year, indicating no overwhelming edge for Chicago despite the familiar turf and elements.

Delving into team-specific angles, the Rams have been a bettor's delight in 2026, boasting one of the league's top against-the-spread records with consistent covers driven by their explosive offense. Los Angeles ranks first in points and yards per game, exploiting defenses with quarterback Matthew Stafford's league-leading passing yards and touchdowns, which has translated to an 11-7 mark to the over in their contests. This over trend aligns with broader NFL patterns, where high-scoring games have become more common in playoffs, as evidenced by bettors cashing overs in 30 of the last 56 divisional round totals that shifted early. On the flip side, the Bears' defense has been a liability, ranking near the bottom in yards per play allowed, which could prove costly against a Rams attack that's thrived even in adverse conditions. Chicago has shown resilience as home underdogs, but their 2026 season has seen them go under in several cold-weather spots, potentially capping the total if the snow slows down the passing game.

Key stats further tilt the scales toward Los Angeles. The Rams have won and covered in 12 games against the spread this year, the most in the NFL, underscoring their reliability as favorites in the -3.5 range. In contrast, playoff favorites coming off a bye, like the Rams here, have a middling 17-26-1 ATS record when laying seven or more points, but with this spread tighter, the historical drag is less pronounced. Weather angles add intrigue: Cold games under 30°F have leaned under league-wide at a 55% rate this season, yet the Rams' efficient ground game and quick-strike passing could buck that, especially against a Bears unit that's surrendered big plays. Bold historical precedents, such as divisional rounds producing unexpectedly high scores, suggest this could eclipse typical weather-dampened expectations.

Putting it all together, the sharp play here is laying the 3.5 points with the Rams. Their offensive dominance, combined with Chicago's defensive woes and the league's road-underdog success not fully countering Los Angeles' trends, points to a comfortable win.

Historical data refines this: NFL -3.5 favorites cover about 47.4% overall, but road teams like the Rams hit 49.2%, and their 66.7% ATS record this season suggests a higher pp . Playoff trends show -49% for road favorites, with weather potentially reducing opp edge.
. Ultimately, if your pp is  0.5238, the bet has edge.