Jim Feist

It’s for all the marbles - Game 7 of the American League Championship Series. The Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays are knotted up 3-3 and after six games there have been comebacks, blowouts, big innings, big games from players on both teams and anything else you can think of. In Game 7, there will be emotion, there will be aggression and there will be lots of runs scored to decide who advances to the World Series, because that’s the way this series has gone.

Toronto will send Shane Bieber to the hill. Bieber was solid in his last start against Seattle, throwing six strong innings. But he was aided in that game by a 13-4 final score, a game in which both teams put together a big inning - which is an important note, as both of these clubs have proven to be capable of stringing together a big inning or two. George Kirby will get the ball for Seattle. Kirby has struggled the last time these teams met, giving up eight earned runs over four innings. He’s also been prone to walks in his last two starts. Neither Bieber nor Kirby have an “edge” over their opponent and both will need to be efficient to help their side. Should one have a rough start, the other team will be all too happy to capitalize.

Toronto’s offense is built on power. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and Bo Bichette have the ability to end a game with one swing. Seattle has its own threats. It clubbed a grand slam in Game 5 and has continued to get big hits from Julio Rodríguez and Eugenio Suárez. Both lineups are deep and both have proven they’ll attack the fastball and take advantage of bullpen missteps.

The bullpens have been leaned on a lot already in this series. In Game 7, expect both teams’ starters to be on shorter leashes. Managers will not be shy about switching things up and that often means less rhythm and more chances to score runs. Add to that some nerves (it’s elimination baseball after all) and you could see a game full of defensive lapses, missed spots and aggressive baserunning - all over ways to score runs.

Factoring in the recent scoring trends, the unproven nature of both starting pitchers, and the proven firepower of both offenses, this game favors the over.

Jim's Play: 906. Mariners/Blue Jays OVER 

Week 7 comes to a close with one of the best NFC battles of the season when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to Detroit to face the Lions on Monday night. Tampa Bay is at 5-1 and sitting atop the conference, while the Lions are 4-2 and hungry after a bad loss to Kansas City on the road. There are also some similarities: Both have dynamic offenses, playmakers at every level and a playoff atmosphere that should make for a highly entertaining prime time contest.

Baker Mayfield continues to have efficient play in key moments and strong chemistry with a retooled receiving group. Mike Evans is expected back from a hamstring injury and rookie Emeka Egbuka is a game-time decision, while Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin have been ruled out. Even with those players missing, Tampa’s offense has weapons that can beat a Lions defense that has serious problems in the secondary through the air.

Detroit has ridden a physical run game, play-action with quarterback Jared Goff and opportunistic defense to get to 4-2. The Lions have the fourth-best run DVOA and have proven to be one of the league’s best teams at run defenses this year, but the Buccaneers run defense is more susceptible and will need to answer the bell against D’Andre Swift and the run game. Safety Brian Branch will be suspended and out for the Lions, which does not bode well for a secondary that already was prone to big plays.

Both of these teams will be able to score. The number in this game is hovering around 52.5 points and the matchup could play over that. Tampa will likely be forced into a pass-heavy script with their injuries, and the Lions will look to control tempo but take what they need to through the air, too, if the Buccaneers get aggressive. Both offenses have been able to do this with their quarterbacks in good form and their defenses showing some cracks, most notably inside the red zone. This game has shootout potential if both sides play up to form.

Jim's Play: 475. Bucs/Lions OVER