Jim Feist

Tulane makes a lot of sense to back here because I just don’t think that number is very big. The line opened Memphis -3.5 and has stayed there, which means the Green Wave just need to play a competitive game on a neutral floor in Birmingham. It’s significant that the teams finished with identical 8-10 AAC records too, and the market even jumped a point toward Tulane from the opener.

The biggest reason to like Tulane may be just how the last meeting went. Back on March 8, Memphis barely escaped with a 96-95 overtime victory against Tulane after the Green Wave erased a nine-point deficit in the final 2:27 of regulation. Tulane even led 40-31 at halftime. This isn’t quite as clear cut of a favorite-underdog battle as the number suggests. If Tulane could almost knock off Memphis three days ago, keeping this one within one or two possessions is realistic.

Plus, familiarity works in Tulane’s favor as well. This is already the third meeting between these two teams this season and conference rematches like this often tighten up because both staffs are so familiar with the opponent’s sets, personnel and tendencies. In tourney games, familiarity usually favors the underdog more than the favorite, especially when the spread is this small. Tulane does not need to outplay Memphis for 40 minutes. It just needs to keep things close, and we’ve already seen it do that.

I may still think Memphis is the more likely winner of this game, but Tulane +3.5 is a number I can get behind because the teams split conference games, the last meeting went to OT, and I expect this neutral-floor rematch to be close once again. This feels like a one-possession game more than a Memphis cover.

Jim's Play: Take: 693. Tulane (American Conf Tourney Game of the Year)

Minnesota can cover here because this is actually on the low side for a team that already beat Rutgers comfortably once this season. The two teams played once during the regular season, with Minnesota winning 80-61. Minnesota opened as about a 4.5 to 5.5-point favorite on the neutral floor in Chicago for Wednesday’s Big Ten tournament game.

Minnesota also has the better records entering this game. Minnesota is 15-16 overall and 8-12 in Big Ten play. Rutgers comes in at 13-18, 6-14. 

Last reason to consider Minnesota: recent form. Minnesota won its last game of the regular season by beating Northwestern 67-66. The Gophers also won four of their last six overall even while playing through injuries. Rutgers has played well in its last couple games too, but Minnesota has looked more consistent over the stretch run and has better Big Ten resume.

Finally, Minnesota’s style of play might allow them to cover this number again. Minnesota already proved it can make Rutgers play defense without being able to get into a rhythm offensively. Our algorithm also says the Gophers limit transition scoring opportunities, turnovers and easy freebies, which is good against a Rutgers offense that relies on those things. If Minnesota can slow down the game again, Rutgers could have trouble scoring efficiently enough to keep the game within two possessions.

As always, injury updates hurt my ability to evaluate this game. Minnesota will be without Jaylen Crocker-Johnson once again because of a foot injury. Minnesota is still laying points, so the market still believes Minnesota is the better side in this game. For me, Minnesota’s better overall record, better recent play and margin of victory in their earlier meeting makes the Gophers players to lay the points.

Jim's Play: 658. Minnesota (Big 10 Conf 2nd Round)

Let’s start with why the Clippers should cover here. This is a very short number at home. Minnesota opened around -1.5 in most books, but saw its line quickly fall to around the Clippers -2. When you price a game this tightly, you are really just asking Los Angeles to win at home. I like that play against the Timberwolves coming off a bad loss.

Minnesota had its own rough outing before this game, losing 120-106 to the Lakers on Tuesday. That was Minnesota’s second straight loss after a five-game winning streak. Anthony Edwards managed just 14 points on 2-for-15 shooting, and the Wolves fell apart in the second half against LA, getting killed in the third quarter 39-23. When a team plays that poorly on one side of the ball against the Lakers and then you bet the other team the next day off one day of rest, recent form absolutely matters.

Speaking of recent form, the Clippers also benefit from their spot in the schedule. Minnesota is currently in the midst of a road trip while Los Angeles hosts this one in Intuit Dome on Wednesday. That game notes link above lists the official game time as 7: 30 p.m. PT for the Clippers, which matters because home floor is valuable in what should only be a one-possession spread.

Minnesota also sports a cleaner injury report, though injuries are not enough to sway this one away from Los Angeles. The NBA’s morning injury report had Minnesota not listed yet, but the Clippers were sitting without Bradley Beal, John Collins, and Yanic Konan Niederhauser. With all three players already ruled out, the Clippers were still getting listed as favorites. That tells me the market thinks the Clippers are the better team even with their injuries.

For me, the biggest factor for the Clippers is the trifecta of home court advantage, a very small spread, and Minnesota playing a back-to-back after two poor results. If the Clippers can play good enough defense to limit Minnesota and get LeBron and Kawhi to shoot something approaching their season averages, this feels like a spot where Los Angeles can cover and win the game outright.

Jim's Play: 512. Clippers