Mike Lundin

Brewers vs Padres October 7, 2026

The Angle(s): The San Diego Padres stayed alive with a 4-3 win in Game 3 and now hand the ball to Walker Buehler (4.63 ERA), who is fresh after missing the start of the series on the paternity list. Buehler's ERA does not jump off the page, but the Padres went 10-3 in his second-half starts and he brings a strong October track record from his Dodgers days. Buehler is 2-1 with a 2.53 ERA in four career starts against Milwaukee. Every game in this series has been decided by one run, so getting the proven starter at home in a spot like this matters.

The Milwaukee Brewers have not named a starter as of the publication of this free pick, with Robert Gasser Shane Drohan and Chad Patrick the options, so this likely turns into a piecemeal game for them. With the Petco crowd behind them and the momentum flipped, we back the Padres to force a Game 5.

The Bet: Padres ML (3%). 

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The Angle(s): The Cleveland Guardians are down 2-0 and facing elimination, but this series has been tighter than that suggests. Game 2 was a 4-3 loss in which Gavin Williams struck out 11 and the bullpen gave it away when he left the mound. Cleveland went 44-37 on the road this season, and with the off day manager Stephen Vogt has close to his full staff behind opener Daniel Espino, with Tanner Bibee, Foster Griffin and Joey Cantillo among the bulk options.

The White Sox are running another bullpen game, and those arms are getting stretched. Lefty opener Sean Newcomb (2-5, 3.09 ERA) threw two innings in Game 2 and carries a 1.68 WHIP in eight outings against the Guardians this year. With the market leaning toward a sweep, I see value in the fresher staff and the desperate club at this price.

The Bet: Guardians ML (3%). 

4% NHL TOP PLAY of the Day

The Angle(s): The Anaheim Ducks bounced the Edmonton Oilers in six last spring, and this is the first meeting since, so expect a locked-in Edmonton group. The Oilers have scored 17 goals through three games, including nine in Vancouver, then tightened up with a 3-1 win over Seattle. This is the club that led the league on the power play last season at 30.6%, and that unit is a problem for a Ducks team that has big holes defensively. 

The Ducks are 2-0, but both wins were one-goal games, 4-3 in Vegas and 3-2 over the Panthers, so the record flatters them a bit. Their offense is real, but they are not built to trade chances with McDavid and Draisaitl for 60 minutes. With the revenge spot, the Oilers attack already humming, and a fair price on the better roster, we are on Edmonton.

The Bet: Oilers ML (4%). 

4% CFB TOP PLAY of the Day (Wednesday)

The Angle(s): The Kennesaw State Owls are 1-3 and have dropped three straight, losing by 14 at home to Georgia State, getting run out of Tennessee 42-9, then falling 17-14 at Arkansas State. Their offense has managed 40 points across those three games, and the one home game against an FBS opponent was a two-score loss. The bye helps, but it does not fix a unit that has not moved the ball on anyone with a pulse. 

The JSU Gamecocks are 3-2, with back-to-back wins and covers over Georgia Southern and Middle Tennessee. Kennesaw State took the CUSA title game off them 19-15 last December on a touchdown in the final minute, so there is real motivation here, and this number is short enough that we are basically asking the better team to win the game.

The Bet: JSU ATS (4%).