Mike Lundin

Pirates vs Athletics MLB Free Pick

The Angle(s): Pittsburgh hands the ball to right-hander Braxton Ashcraft (5-3, 3.30 ERA), who is putting together an efficient season. Ashcraft has notably dialed up his strikeout numbers while maintaining elite control, issuing just two free passes over his last three starts. His 1.10 WHIP and 90-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 84 2/3 innings reflect a pitcher capable of shutting down the bottom half of a lineup.

Oakland turns to Aaron Civale (5-2, 4.20 ERA), whose surface record masks some major underlying vulnerabilities. Civale has hit a rough patch, struggling to a 5.40 ERA over his last five starts. His home-road splits are even more alarming, as his home ERA sits more than two runs higher than his production on the road.

The Bet: Pirates (3%). 

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The Angle(s): Cleveland sends right-hander Gavin Williams (9-3, 3.32 ERA) to the mound. Williams has been electric this season, and his high-spin repertoire matches up perfectly against a free-swinging Milwaukee order.

The Brewers counter with righty Brandon Sproat (1-4, 5.70 ERA), who has failed to find consistency. Sproat's elevated 1.48 WHIP and 1.70 HR/9 leave him deeply exposed against a disciplined Guardians lineup that excels at maximizing traffic. Expect Williams to dominate early and Cleveland's bats to exploit Sproat's command issues. Back the Guardians on the moneyline.

The Bet: Guardians (3%). 

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The Angle(s): The Miami Marlins hand the ball to right-hander Sandy Alcantara (6-4, 4.25 ERA), who has looked significantly sharper in recent weeks. Against a vulnerable Phillies setup, Alcantara is in a prime position to dictate the tempo.

On the flip side, the Phillies continue to find themselves in a massive bind whenever Andrew Painter (1-7, 6.43 ERA) takes the mound. It has been a disastrous season for the young righty, and the Phillies have dropped four of his last five starts and an astonishing 10 of his last 11 outings overall.

The Bet: Marlins (4%). 

EARLY MLB MONEYLINE MA$$ACRE 

The Angle(s): Cincinnati Reds southpaw Nick Lodolo (2-1, 5.21 ERA) has historically owned this Mets lineup, with a 2-0 record behind a minuscule ERA of 1.53 in three starts against them. He most recently held them to one run over six innings of a 7-2 win on May 25, and the Mets are 5-12 against left-handed starters. 

The Reds' bats meanwhile should feast on right-hander Nolan McLean (3-4, 4.01 ERA). While McLean has flashed electric stuff at times this season, Cincinnati completely exposed him when he opposed Lodolo back on May 25, hammering him for seven runs in an absolute rout. Expect the Reds to repeat that blueprint, jump on McLean early, and cruise to a victory at Great American Ball Park. Gimme the dawg. 

The Bet: Reds (3%).