Bryan Power

8* UT Arlington (5:00 ET): UT Arlington is off to a 1-3 start (straight up), but that record doesn’t do justice to how competitive the Mavericks have been in those four games. Rather you should look to the fact they are a perfect 4-0 ATS. They only lost by 7 to Oklahoma State, by 5 at Louisiana Tech and by 12 at Arkansas. The Tulsa team that they are facing Friday is 0-2 SU and ATS and hasn’t done much in the way of scoring. When these teams met in Arlington last season, the Mavericks were 14 pt winners, holding Tulsa to just 59 points. This is a matchup where taking the points makes a lot of sense. 

Covering as underdogs is nothing new for UT Arlington. After all, they are a remarkable 70-38 ATS the L108 times taking points including 3-0 already this season. The fact they’ve been able to cover all of these games has been a testament to their defense as the Mavericks are shooting below 40% from the field thus far. They were able to hold Arkansas to just SIX points over the final 10 minutes on Wednesday, but it still wasn’t enough. You have to figure they’re going to start shooting better moving forward and I say that happens here.

Tulsa’s season has started with losses to TCU and South Carolina, both of which were part of the Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City. Despite only losing by 5 to TCU, the Golden Hurricane never led in the second half. They jumped out to an early 9-0 against sloppy South Carolina, but after that were pretty much dominated and ended up losing by 11. This is the first time Tulsa has been favored and UT Arlington is on a 14-5 ATS run vs. teams with losing records. Tulsa’s three-point shooting has been dreadful and I smell upset here. Take the points. 8* UT ARLINGTON

10* Under Boise State/UNLV (9:30 ET): Boise State has gone Over in all five of its games thus far. They were scheduled to have a showdown with unbeaten San Jose State last Saturday, but that matchup got postponed by COVID-19. While every game the Broncos have played ended up being high-scoring, there have been some exceptional factors in that, which I’ll get into. This week they are matched up against a weak foe (UNLV) that doesn’t score much, so this looks like the spot where the Over streak ends. 

Two weeks ago, I tried with the Under when Boise State hosted Colorado State. Take away the THREE non-offensive touchdowns that they scored in that game and I would have cashed a winning ticket - comfortably. In fact, if you would have taken away just two of three, the Under would have hit. Two of the three non-offensive touchdowns came off blocked punts! When was the last time you saw a team block multiple punts in the same game AND return them for touchdowns? Craziness! Incredibly, the Broncos had a 99-yard kick return for a TD in their 40-32 win over Hawaii two weeks ago, so the parade of non-offensive TDs continued. Eventually though they aren’t going to keep being this fortuitous.

UNLV, who is winless on the year (0-5 SU/0-4-1 ATS), is the weakest offensive team BSU will have faced since its opening week win against Utah State (where they allowed just 13 points). The Runnin’ Rebels come in averaging just 16.6 PPG on the season. Only once have they have scored at least 20. Three of the five games have seen them get held below 300 total yards. QB Gilliam has thrown for less than 600 yards (total!) and the running game is averaging just 3.5 yards per pop. As far as the Rebels’ defense, it is not good either, but they should hopefully be able to keep Boise State from scoring 40. It’s Friday night in Vegas, so stranger things have happened. 10* Under Boise State/UNLV

8* Louisiana (8:30 ET): Normally, with the Sun Belt Championship Game (vs. unbeaten Coastal Carolina) on deck, this might be considered a “look ahead” spot for Louisiana. But not with the Ragin Cajuns’ history against Appalachian State. This is a major revenge game for the Sun Belt West Champs as they have lost eight consecutive times to App State, including twice last season. But it “feels” like this is the 1st time Louisiana (who is ranked 24th in the country) is the better team and I’m taking them plus the points Friday night. 

Appalachian State just hasn’t been quite as strong in 2020 compared to past seasons. This will be the first time since 2017 that the Mountaineers WON’T be playing for the conference title. They are just 2-7 ATS this year, though that can be pinned on the large pointspreads they face on a weekly basis. The only two SU losses for ASU this season have come against a pair of unbeaten teams, Marshall and Coastal Carolina, both by double digits. While there’s no shame in either loss (both on the road), those were the only two decent teams the Mountaineers have faced to this point. 

Louisiana also lost to Coastal Carolina, 30-27, with the game decided on a last second field goal. They’ve won five in a row since and while there have been numerous close calls all year long (four wins by 7 pts or less), last week wasn’t one of them as they put up 70 against hideous LA Monroe. Also, the Ragin Cajuns hold a 31-14 win over Iowa State (on the road), which keeps looking better and better as the Cyclones continue their ascent in the Big 12 standings. Louisiana is going to be the more motivated side Friday night. 8* Louisiana