Bryan Power

8* Boston (7:35 ET): This season has been mostly bereft of highlights in Beantown, but tonight should mark an easy win for the Red Sox as they look to sweep the final series at Fenway Park. They beat Baltimore 8-3 last night, improving their mark to 32-14 the L3 seasons vs. the O’s. While it’s highly unusual for the Red Sox to be looking up at the Orioles in the standings, you can look for the home team to continue to own its division rival tonight as it sends Nathan Eovaldi to the bump.

Eovaldi has pitched very well of late, turning in a 1.20 ERA and 0.733 WHIP his last three starts. During that time, he’s allowed only 2 ER in 15 IP. He has 17 strikeouts and just one walk. Tonight marks the third time he’s faced Baltimore in 2020 and so far his TSR is 2-0 as he’s allowed two runs in 13 innings. The Red Sox won those two games by a combined score of 20-3 (13-1 and 7-2). Take away one disastrous start at Yankee Stadium and Eovaldi has had a really nice year. 

Boston still has a chance to pass Baltimore and get out of last place in the American League East. Look for that to be a point of emphasis in the final week of the season. Like the Red Sox, the Orioles have been eliminated from playoff contention. They’ve lost 5 of 6 and scored three runs or less in 7 of their last 10 games, including each of the last five. Dean Kremer will start for them Wednesday. While his numbers through three starts have been good, it’s still a small sample and the Orioles have scored just one run for him each of his last two times out. 8* Boston

6* Houston (6:40 ET): Barring something unforeseen, the Astros will end up as the 6-seed in the American League playoffs and face the division winner with the worst record in the first round. While that’s not up to the standard set in Houston these last few seasons, the ‘Stros will certainly “take it” considering all the controversy that surrounded the franchise in the offseason (cheating!), not to mention an unprecedented regular season that has seen them have to deal with countless injuries. A win tonight would clinch a playoff spot. 

If only they could play Seattle every day, Houston would be much happier. With last night’s 6-1 victory, they moved to 25-3 vs. the Mariners since the start of last season. They are 7-2 against their division rival in 2020. As if you needed to be reminded, Seattle is in the midst of a terrible season that’s been further complicated recently with the air quality in the area forcing them to play “home games” on the road. 

The Astros have been road favorites of -175 or higher only one time this season. They won and are 52-16 in that role in the L3 seasons. Sending out Zack Greinke tonight should ensure another victory. Grienke is 7-1 with a 2.08 ERA in 15 career starts vs. Seattle. While 2020 hasn’t been his best year by any means, Grienke still has a 1.075 WHIP. Seattle can only counter with Nick Margevicius, who has an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts, not to mention a 6.89 ERA and 1.659 WHIP. The Astros have seen him twice already this season. 6* Houston

10* Boston (8:35 ET): The Celtics were FINALLY able to put away the Heat in Game 3. It wasn’t easy, but they ended up prevailing 117-106 and thus covered the 3-pt spread. For Miami, the loss marked the first time this postseason that they lost a game in regulation. But don’t let that distinction fool you into thinking they’ve been anywhere close to dominant in the Eastern Conference Finals. In fact, it’s been quite the reverse. In all three games in this series, they’ve been down double-digits!

The Heat’s propensity for starting slow caused Jimmy Butler to quip “I think it gets old, playing from behind consistently.” For the record, in this series the Heat have trailed by 14 in the 4Q of Game 1 (won in OT), by 15 in the 3Q of Game 2 (won by 5) and then by as many as 20 in Game 3. While they did end up losing by 11 points, the Heat actually got within 5 in the final minute of Game 3. This reminds me a bit of Boston’s last series with Toronto. The four Celtics’ wins in that series were by a combined 48 points while the three losses were by a total of 11 (one coming in 2 OT and another at the buzzer). The Celtics were pretty clearly better than the Raptors, although it took them seven games to advance. 

I also think the Celtics are better than the Heat. They could easily be up 3-0 in this series and thus be in position for the sweep Wednesday night. They’re not, but the way this series has gone is definitely worth noting. Miami’s shooting - both overall and from three-point range, has declined with each passing game in the series. In Game 3, Boston crushed Miami in points in the paint, 60-36. It must also be pointed out that Gordon Hayward is now back and while he didn’t have the greatest statline, his presence was still key to attacking Miami’s zone defense. The Celtics are also a better defensive team than the Heat. They have yet to allow more than 106 points in regulation this entire postseason! They are also now 23-8-1 ATS their L32 playoff games when favored. 10* Boston