Bryan Power

9* Carolina (7:35 ET): While there's been a very real home ice advantage so far in this series (home team is 6-0), I'm going to call for the road team to prevail here. Even though the teams have scored the same number of goals, my view is that Carolina has played better. They've outshot Washington 192-153, which is pretty substantial over a six-game sample size. 

I'm also going to again lean on the fact that the Canes are #1 in the league in Corsi For %, a key metric that actually foretold the Blue Jackets stunning 1st round upset of the Lightning. Carolina's defense has certainly frustrated the Capitals throughout the series and the 'Canes ability to get the puck on net has been a strength all season long. They were #1 in shots per game in the regular season as well as shot differential. 

An "X-factor" here is Carolina captain Justin Williams, who has an incredible history in Game 7's. He has 14 career points in Game 7's, an NHL record, with seven goals and seven assists. None of that has come w/ Carolina, but he brings not just Game 7 experience, but success, to the table. Washington goaltender Braden Holtby has a 3-4 SU career record in Game 7s. It would be easy to look at the home team being 6-0 in this series and go w/ the Caps, but my feeling is Carolina has been the better team and they steal Game 7. No repeat in the Nation's capital. 9* Carolina

10* Under Jazz/Rockets (8:05 ET): Utah did its job defensively in Games 3 and 4. They held the Rockets to 61 of 165 shooting from the field, or just under 37% overall. James Harden had a terrible Game 3 (missed first 15 shots) and the entire Houston team couldn't make a three-pointer in Game 4 (missed final 13 attempts). Unfortunately for the Jazz though, they were able to win only one of the two games. Their own poor shooting has really hurt them in this series as they're making just over 40% of their total attempts. They failed to score 100 pts in either of the first two games in Houston. 

With the Rockets back at home, the conventional wisdom is going to be that they will rediscover their lost shooting touch. I'm not so sure about that. While they did score 118 and 122 points in the first two games of the series, Utah has been an elite defensive team all season. They ranked second in the league in efficiency during the regular season and were 4th in points allowed. Both Games 1 and 2 fell right on the number, so depending on your closing O/U lines, there really hasn't been a "true" Over in the series. Houston is a surprising 11-4-3 Under its L18 games.

The Under is 5-1-2 in the eight meetings this season between these teams (that's counting Games 1 and 2 as 'pushes.') Even going back to the regular season, the oddsmakers have been pretty consistent w/ their OU lines. The one exception, ironically, was the lone Over where the total was higher than normal (222.0) and the Over cashed by a single point (125-98 Rockets' win). Meanwhile, four of the five Unders have cashed by double digits. The Under is also 6-0-1 in Houston's last seven games following a SU loss. 10* Under Jazz/Rockets 

analysis soon

10* Under Mariners/Padres (3:40 ET): Last night, I took the Padres as I said I was "unsold" on Seattle's shockingly good start to the season. The Padres won 6-3, holding the Mariners w/o a HR, which is no small feat. It was just the second game ALL YEAR that a Seattle hitter failed to hit one out of the park as they have recorded a record-setting 56 HR's in 26 games. But remember, this is a NL park, which means the loss of the designated hitter. Thus, the M's lineup is not at full strength here. Offensive regression was inevitable anyway moving forward, so Under is the call today.

Though they scored six times for me last night, it's not as if San Diego is some kind of offensive powerhouse. They came into yday averaging just 2.8 rpg at home w/ a team batting average of .220. As per usual, you can find the Padres near the bottom of the league in most major offensive categories. But on the opposite front, they have to be encouraged from what they've seen from Wednesday's starter, Chris Paddack. He has a 2.25 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in four starts. While Paddack has yet to win a decision (0-1), the team has gone 3-1 w/ him on the mound. 

There are so many signs that Seattle is going to regress that I could probably publish an e-book on it! Honestly, the regression has already started w/ them dropping 7 of the last 10 games. As I wrote yday, "This is a team I earmarked for regression in 2019 as LY's 89-win campaign was a total mirage considering the M's were actually outscored by 34 runs." The offensive numbers, particularly the # of home runs, almost HAVE to start going down. Petco Park should help take care of that. As for starter Felix Hernandez, while he's no longer "King Felix" anymore, he does have a 5-1 career record when pitching in San Diego. His ERA/WHIP are 1.63/0.775 w/ an opponents batting average of .170. This will be a low-scoring game. 10* Under Mariners/Padres

10* Pittsburgh (12:15 ET): This play is very similar to Sunday's winner on the Padres in the sense that the Pirates, the home team in the series, is facing the prospect of a four-game sweep. Rarely do you see a home team get swept in a four-game series. Taking San Diego in that spot Sunday worked out for us, so I'll back the Bucs as well. It's not just the scenario though. One would have expected more from the Pirates coming into this series, given their (still) impressive pitching numbers. One of their better pitchers will be on the mound this afternoon. 

Arizona has now won 9 straight games here at PNC Park. That's pretty surprising. They've come in and outscored the Pirates 25-7 in the first three games of this series, including an 11-2 win last night. Ketel Marte homered twice, but the real key was three straight doubles (all w/ 2 outs) in the top of the 7th. This is the D'backs longest win streak in a park other than their own in franchise history. Coming into the year, I was a definite "seller" on this ballclub (as were many), thinking they'd surely regress due to an offseason that saw them say goodbye to more talent (Paul Goldschmidt) than they brought in. I still feel they are going to be a losing team here in 2019. 

The D'backs will have Zack Greinke on the bump here and he's gone 3-0 his L4 starts overall. But he still has a 5.74 ERA on the road, mostly due to a poor 1st start to the season. Pittsburgh counters w/ Jameson Taillon, who also had a less than stellar 2019 debut. But since then, he's been pretty much lights out. The Pirates have won the last two times he's pitched. In his last start, Taillon allowed just one run on four hits in five innings. That actually ended up being a "complete game" due to rain. So Taillon is also a little more "rested" than usual here. Each of those L2 starts also came on five days rest. 10* Pittsburgh