Bryan Power

10* Green Bay (8:15 ET): The Packers were rightfully skewered for a horrendous opening week loss to the Saints. They lost 38-3 (were 3.5-point favorites for the neutral site contest) and gained a meager 229 yards of total offense in the process. But this week they are facing the Lions, one of the worst teams in all of football and I say Aaron Rodgers bounces back with a huge primetime showing. The L11 times they have hosted Detroit, the Pack are 9-2 SU with Rodgers throwing 21 TDs and 4 INTs. Green Bay is also looking to win its ninth straight home opener tonight and they should do so by a wide margin. Lay the points. 

Detroit did cover the spread in Week 1, but they were very fortunate to do so. At home, they trailed the 49ers 41-17 in the fourth quarter before two quick touchdowns (both followed by two-point conversions) allowed them to sneak through the proverbial “back door.” That made me happy as I took the points with the Lions. But again, it was very lucky as the second touchdown came after an onside kick recovery. Rodgers should have no problem shredding a Lions defense which gave up 8.0 yards per play to San Francisco and is now without CB Jeff Okudah for the remainder of the season (ACL). 

The Lions won’t be favored in a single game this season and they are 31st in my power ratings (ahead of only Houston). Obviously, I dropped Green Bay after last week’s performance, but they still have massive edges on both sides of the ball in this NFC North matchup. Perhaps we can just chalk up last week to a case of Rodgers not playing in the preseason or the fact the game was moved to a neutral site because of Hurricane Ida. Whatever reason you want to go with, I’m calling it a “one week aberration” as last year’s MVP should bounce back with a huge performance tonight. The Packers are 16-5 ATS off an ATS loss and 8-1 ATS off a SU loss. 10* Green Bay

10* Oakland (9:40 ET): If you’re a regular follower of mine, then you know I’ve got no hesitation to fade a Mariners team that has grossly overachieved in 2021. Seattle comes into Monday sporting an 80-69 record, which has them still viable in the AL Wild Card chase. But it’s a minor miracle that they are still in playoff contention considering they’ve been outscored this season by 62 runs. Based on that run differential, you’d expect them to have only 68 wins this season. The 12-game gap between actual and expected wins is easily MLB’s largest. In fact, no other team has overachieved by more than five games. 

Though they did win on Sunday, 7-1 at Kansas City, the Mariners have started to slip. They’ve lost five of eight overall to fall four games back in the Wild Card hunt. If you are perplexed as to how a team can be outscored by 62 runs and still be 11 games over .500, know that Seattle has 31 one-run victories and 13 wins in extra innings, both of which are the most in MLB. They’ve had extremely good fortune to this point, but I am on the record as saying they will NOT make the playoffs. I’m too big of a believer in run differential to think this substandard team can finish in the top five in the American League.

This is a huge game for Oakland as they are also trying to make the playoffs as a Wild Card. After sweeping the Angels over the weekend, the A’s have won five straight. They are two games ahead of Seattle but still two back of the WC. The A’s have revenge here as they’ve lost five in a row to the M’s, including a two-game sweep at home last month. But they’ve got Sean Manaea on the hill Monday and he’s 2-0 this year vs. Seattle, having allowed just one run on seven hits in 16 IP. He’s got 21 strikeouts in the two starts, one of which was a CG shutout. Seattle is dead last in MLB in team batting average, not to mention bottom five in OBP and slugging. So I don’t see them solving Manaea here. Manaea also has 21 strikeouts in 19 IP here in September. He’s a much better option than Seattle’s Tyler Anderson. 10* Oakland

8* Atlanta (9:40 ET): The Braves picked up a much needed win on Sunday, shutting out the Giants 3-0. Not only did they enable them to avoid being swept, but it also ended a four-game losing streak. Fortunately, they now get to start the week by playing an Arizona team that has the worst record in all of baseball. The D’backs have been a disaster here in 2021, dropping 36.7 units at the betting window and losing 101 of their 149 games. Even at home, they are just 28-43. An easy call on Monday night. 

It was last month when I went on the record and predicted the Braves would go on a major run. They did just that, seizing control of the National League East. The reason I continue to be so bullish on the Braves is because of their run differential. They are +98 YTD while all the other teams in the division have negative run differentials. That being said, their lead is down to two games and they can’t afford any more stumbles like last week. There was probably no better time for the D’backs to show up on the schedule. 

Arizona is off a 7-6 loss in Houston where they blew a two-run lead in the bottom of the eighth. So on top of being bad, morale is likely in the toilet after Sunday’s loss. The D’backs are 27-72 off a loss this season. They’ve lost five of six and 11 of 14 overall. Huascar Ynoa should take care of business here for the Braves as he has a 3.30 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in 14 starts this year. That includes a quality start (which Atlanta won) vs. the D’backs back in April. Starting for Arizona will be Humberto Mejia, who was just recalled from Triple-A Reno. It’s just his third start of ‘21 and the team has lost the previous two. 8* Atlanta