Bryan Power

8* Arizona (10:10 ET): The Diamondbacks appear to be headed south as they've lost five in a row, the last four all coming here at Chase Field to division rivals. Last night saw the Giants exact some revenge against them (for a three-game sweep by Arizona in SF last month) w/ an 11-5 win. These NL West foes have now met seven times in 2019 and the last six have all seen the road team prevail. I'm going to call for that streak - and the D'backs losing skid - to both come to an end Saturday night as Zack Godley returns to a starting rotation in dire need of some help. 

Godley has not started in a month. The last time he started was against ... San Francisco. The D'backs actually lost the game, 8-5, with Godley allowing four runs in 3 1/3 innings. That was actually the start of the six-game win streak by the road team in this rivalry. The Giants have beaten the D'backs three straight times at Chase Field where Arizona has curiously struggled this season (only 14-20). This all being said, Godley's recent work out of the bullpen has been mostly good (w/ the exception of his last appearance!) and was enough to justify him starting this game. It may not be a long outing, but that's okay. 

San Francisco has the worst run differential in the National League (-92). So even though they are already in last place (32-42), really things could - and should - be worse. Run differential says this is a 27-win team as only Baltimore and Detroit have been outscored more this season. Arizona, despite being a game under .500, actually sports a run differential of +41. That is the 5th best differential in the NL! Rookie Tyler Beede gets the start here for the Giants. He's coming off a surprisingly strong effort against the Dodgers earlier this week, but still has a 6.75 ERA and 1.708 WHIP on the year. He - and the Giants - revert back to "usual" form tonight, which is to say they'll lose. They are just 11-20 off a win this season. 8* Arizona 

7* Texas (9:05 ET): This looks to be one of the more sizable pitching mismatches I've seen in recent weeks w/ Lance Lynn going up against Omar Despaigne. That's a good thing for the Rangers, who are looking to bounce back from last night's surprising 5-4 defeat (game went 10 innings). The White Sox have certainly improved from LY's 100-loss debacle, but don't let their 36-37 record fool you into thinking they're ready to start competing for a Wild Card spot. This is a team that's been outscored by 58 runs this season, a number nearly identical to last place Kansas City! Look for Texas to bounce back here behind Lynn. 

The Rangers have also been a surprise this season, although they look to be more legitimate (+27 run differential) and are a Wild Card contender. They enter Saturday just 1.5 games back of Boston for the 2nd WC spot in the American League. Lynn has been a real catalyst in the team's surprising start as he's made eight straight quality starts and has a 3.17 ERA his L10. He's coming off a real gem too as he held Cleveland to one run (a solo HR) over seven innings and had nine strikeouts. Lynn has a 2.49 ERA in seven career starts vs. the White Sox, so I think he's poised for another strong effort tonight. 

Despaigne has made two starts since being called up from Triple-A Charlotte. The last one went rather poorly as he allowed seven runs in just 4 1/3 innings. Now that was against the Yankees, but the Rangers happen to be one of only three teams averaging more runs per game than the Bronx Bombers. Again, I simply do not have the same optimistic outlook that others may have w/ this White Sox team. They now own the largest gap between expected and actual wins (-6) in all of baseball. Run differential says they're a 30-win team. 7* Texas

10* Over Rockies/Dodgers (7:15 ET): I'm going Over here despite the presence of Hyun-Jin Ryu on the mound for the Dodgers. Yes, Ryu is off to an incredible start here in 2019. He's 9-1 w/ a 1.26 ERA and 0.817 WHIP, putting him in line to start for the National League in next month's All-Star Game. But the Dodgers can score too. They are averaging 5.6 runs per game at home. Their opponent can score too, though they did lose 4-2 last night. Sure Colorado benefits from playing half of its games at Coors Field. But their last series (on the road) saw them score 20 times in three games. Take the Over here. 

Ryu's last four starts have gone Under, which can't be too surprising given how well he's pitched. He's allowed just THREE runs total during that time, two of them unearned. Over his last eight starts, Ryu has allowed just FIVE runs total, five times not giving up ANY! But let's stop the dissuading w/ the Over here. The Rockies have been a nemesis for Ryu throughout his career. He's just 4-6 in 10 starts against them w/ a 4.97 ERA. Again, the total is low here for two teams that are both more than capable of putting a good deal of runs on the board. 

The Dodgers had scored nine runs in three straight games going into yday. I'm obviously banking on them having plenty of success at the plate tonight vs. Pete Lambert. Lambert, who is a rookie, has made thee starts previously. The first two, both against the Cubs, went well. The last one, against San Diego, did not. Lambert gave up eight runs in only three innings to the Padres. While it would be easy to chalk that up to pitching at Coors, it's not like San Diego is any kind of great offensive team and it wasn't the home run ball that hurt Lambert either. The Over is 9-3 the last 12 times Colorado has faced a starter w/ a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 10* Over Rockies/Dodgers

10* Hamilton (7:00 ET): I think it speaks volumes that - off a less than stellar offensive showing in Week 1 - Hamilton would be favored on the road here against a Toronto team coming off an opening week bye. That probably speaks more to the current state of the Argos than anything else. They went 4-14 SU last season (worst record in the league) after winning the Grey Cup in 2017. They enter 2019 w/ plenty of uncertainty, particularly at the QB position. I'm laying the points here. 

Hamilton won its season opener, 23-17 over Saskatchewan. Many were surprised the Ti-Cats didn't score more given the way their offense performed under June Jones down the stretch last season. They are the one team in the East that entered the year settled at QB as Jeremiah Masoli threw for 5,209 yards and 28 touchdowns last season. Even with wideout Luke Tasker out for this game, the Ti-Cats have a deep group of playmakers that are more than capable of moving the ball. Remember they were facing a tough Saskatchewan defense last week. Toronto's simply is not of that same caliber. 

The Argos haven't had much success against their provincial rival in recent years, covering only 3 of the last 15 matchups. Hamilton took three of four last year, including both here in Toronto. While Corey Chamblin is back as the head coach of the Argos (previously served as DC here for the Grey Cup team in '17), he has his work cut out for him. I really think they're going to struggle to score points early on. QB James Franklin is a big question mark. The defense isn't as talented as the group Chamblin had two years ago. Hamilton makes a statement here that they are the team to beat in the Eastern Division. 10* Hamilton

8* Under Orioles/Mariners (4:10 ET): Two teams that are accustomed to high scoring games, I believe, are poised to go Under on Sunday. Baltimore and Seattle are last and second to last respectively when it comes to runs allowed this year. The Orioles have allowed 481 in 77 games (6.2 per game) while Seattle has given up 495 in 81 games (6.1 per game). It was Baltimore winning on the scoreboard yesterday, 8-4, which was another Over for Seattle as they are now a shocking 54-22-5 Over in all games this season. But I think today's game will be different. Take the Under. 

Friday's game (won 10-9 by Seattle) was also high scoring. But the opener of the series (back on Thursday) wasn't as the Mariners prevailed that day by a score of 5-2. The first two games of this series aside, Seattle's offensive numbers have really tapered off since a hot start to the season. Today they'll be facing a pitcher they've never seen before, Gabriel Ynoa, who is still winless and off the worst of his five starts this season. But Yano's WHIP is still respectable and he hadn't allowed more than 3 ER in any of the first four outings. 

By winning Saturday, Baltimore snapped an ugly 10-game losing streak. This is (again) the worst team in baseball and I don't see them scoring eight runs again like they did yday. They've actually scored a total of 17 the L2 games, which is a really high number for them. I'll be the first to admit that Mariners' starter Yusei Kikuchi does not have impressive numbers on the season. But the Orioles have never faced him before, which is a slight advantage for the pitcher. The eight runs scored yday for Baltimore came on only eight hits. They're still only batting .215 the L7 games and scoring 3.5 rpg. 8* Under Orioles/Mariners

10* San Diego (1:35 ET): These are two clubs that have found their way onto my mostly FADE list, but by rule somebody's got to win Sunday. The first two games of the series have gone to the Pirates, but don't let that fool you into thinking they are necessarily the better team here. Even after those wins, the Bucs' YTD run differential is still -73, second worst in the entire National League. What's interesting here is the Padres are 0-3 this season as road faves of -125 to -175. They'd been in that role just TWICE the previous two seasons. I think it speaks volumes that they are the betting favorite going into Sunday. Pittsburgh is 0-2 this year as a home dog of +125 to +175. 

Starting pitching obviously has the biggest influence on the line and this is where you can see why San Diego is favored this afternoon. Joey Lucchesi has been very good for the Padres so far, most notably his last time out when he tossed seven shutout innings of three-hit ball vs. Milwaukee. One might try an make the argument that Pittsburgh starter Steven Brault has turned the corner seeing as he too didn't allow any runs in his last outing. But he was quite fortunate not to as he allowed eight hits in six innings. He was also facing Miami, the lowest scoring team in the N.L. 

Neither of these teams are as good as their records, which frankly are pedestrian at best anyway. Yet I feel Pittsburgh's "true" level of play this year is further below their WL record than is the case w/ San Diego. The Padres are a league-leading 18-8 in one-run games this year. They are also 4-1 in Lucchesi's last five starts. Lucchesi has allowed 3 ER or less in seven of his last eight starts, one of those against Pittsburgh where he allowed just two runs and five hits in seven innings. That ended up being a hard-luck loss, but he also threw five shutout innings of one-hit ball in his lone start vs. Pittsburgh last year. While Lucchesi hasn't won a decision on the road this year, Brault hasn't won one at home either. 10* San Diego