Bryan Power

8* Vegas (4:05 ET): These teams have not met since LY's playoffs when the Golden Knights delivered a shocking sweep of the Kings. Needless to say, they won't be meeting in the playoffs again this year. That's because it seems as if LA has never recovered from said sweep as they have fallen on some real hard times this year. At this point, I think it's very fair to call them the "worst team in the league" as they have the (very) unenviable distinction of having both the fewest points (21) and worst goal differential (-28). I expect Vegas to show their division rival no mercy Saturday afternoon. 

After its magical run to the Stanley Cup Finals a year ago (as an expansion team!), it was only logical for Vegas to slip a bit too. They probably won't be back in the Stanley Cup Finals again this year and maybe they don't even win the Pacific Division. But they're certainly playing like a playoff team right now w/ wins in seven of the last eight games. They just won as huge favorites on Thursday over another bad team, Chicago. Now that was at home where the Knights have always played better in their brief existence. But winning at the Staples Center shouldn't prove too difficult as two other road teams, Arizona and New Jersey, have already done so this week.

Vegas has gotten 14 goals from 11 different players in its last four games. Meanwhile, the Kings are last in the league in scoring (2.1 goals per game) and really struggling offensively right now. They'd been held to two goals or fewer in five straight games before losing 6-3 to New Jersey on Thursday. But that's a Devils team that had conceded 28 goals in its previous six games, so I wouldn't look for the "offensive surge" to continue. Because this is the front end of a back to back, Vegas will likely opt to start Marc-Andre Fleury in goal tomorrow vs. Dallas. While Malcolm Subban has not started since 11/19, I think this is a good spot for him against the lowest scoring team in the league. 8* Vegas

10* Dallas (6:05 ET): At this point, I think it's safe to say "Houston, we have a problem" as the Rockets continue to struggle at the outset of the 2018-19 season. Thursday's 27-point loss in Utah marked not only the second straight game where the team failed to score 100 points, but it was also their sixth loss in the last eight games overall. They've been even worse at the pay window recently, going 2-7 ATS their L9. Tonight, they're matched up w/ a Dallas team that has been absolutely sensational at home this year (10-2 SU AND ATS), yet still laying points. I'll go w/ the Mavs as home underdogs in this one as they recently beat the Rockets - in Houston - by 20 pts. 

That 20 pt win in H-town saw Dallas shoot a blistering 54.1% for the game, including 17 of 34 three-pointers. They scored 74 pts in the 1H and it was never close after that. As you can probably tell, this is a much improved team this year after the 24-win disaster of a season ago. They are already half way to that win total this year and we've played only a quarter of the games. The team is coming off their own blowout loss (26 pts), to New Orleans, but that was on the road where the improvement hasn't really translated. At home, they've won eight in a row, beating the likes of Oklahoma City, Golden State, Boston, the Clippers and Portland. They average 115.2 PPG here. 

Meanwhile, a Houston team that led the league w/ 65 regular season wins last year has fallen off rather dramatically. They've been held under 100 pts seven times, which is more than double the number of times that happened over the course of 82 games LY. James Harden & Chris Paul went a combined 10 for 27 against Utah and the supporting cast simply is not as strong this year. Right now, the Rockets are one of only four teams in the Western Conference that have been outscored on the season. That puts them in a rather precarious position as the only team below them in the standings is Phoenix! The Rockets have not fared well on the road this year, going just 5-9 ATS, including 3-6 as the favorite. They're also 2-7 ATS after allowing 115+ pts in their last game. 10* Dallas

8* San Diego State (10:30 ET): Both teams are off a loss here. San Diego State's was more shocking as they fell as six-point favorites to San Diego. Cal's loss also occurred at home, but they were seven-point dogs to a good San Francisco team. I don't know if the Bears are thinking about switching conferences (only kidding!), but they've actually taken on three straight West Coast Conference teams. While they did beat a bad Santa Clara squad, the Bears not only lost to USF, but at St. Mary's as well. Of course, the team SDSU just lost to also hails from the WCC. While it may seem like a relatively even matchup Sat night, I still believe the Aztecs have a significant edge and thus I'll lay the short number. 

These schools have met each of the last two seasons, right around this time of year. It was a neutral site game that San Diego State won back in 2016, 77-65 as 6.5-pt underdogs. Last year, Cal won on the road, 63-62 as 16.5-pt dogs. So it's a big revenge game for the Aztecs. Lucky for them, Cal has won just two of its eight games this season w/ five of those losses coming by double digits. It's a real bad scene in Berkeley right now as both wins came against teams outside my top 200. This team does not defend well as they've given up at least 76 points in all six losses. 

I mentioned earlier that SDSU suffered an outright loss in their last game, to San Diego. Looking at the second half of that game, it's pretty stunning how the Aztecs fell apart. They led by seven at halftime, but were outscored 47-28 in the second half. That kind of defensive collapse just doesn't happen w/ this team very often as opponents are shooting less than 40% against the Aztecs for the season. Fortunately, SDSU is not only 26-9-4 ATS off an ATS loss, but also 5-1 ATS off their previous six SU losses. This year has already seen them respond from a couple blowout losses (to Duke and Iowa State) w/ nice wins and covers over Xavier and Jackson State. Make no mistake about it, the Aztecs are the significantly better team here. 8* San Diego State

10* Loyola Chi (4:00 ET): With all due respect to Sister Jean, we all knew Loyola Chicago would take a step back this year. I mean, how could they not after that incredible Final Four run last March? The Ramblers went an amazing 32-6 SU last season en route to San Antonio, but knew they wouldn't be sneaking up on anyone this year and have already dropped four games. One of them, I was against them in what was a huge revenge game for their opponent (Nevada). The Ramblers now come into this game as losers of three of their last four, having lost outright as a 5-pt home favorite to Ball State on Wednesday. 

Maryland is one of EIGHT Big 10 teams currently ranked in the top 25. That conference is absolutely loaded this year as there's a 9th team - Indiana - probably worthy of Top 25 consideration as well. While I just said that Loyola Chi "wouldn't be sneaking up on anyone" this year, don't be surprised if the Terps aren't taking them as seriously as they should. Maryland is coming off a series of high-profile games, all of them going down to the wire, and may not have as much "left in the tank" as they'd like. They just lost at Purdue on Thursday by two. It was their second loss in three games as they fell by five to Virginia as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. This is a young team. Seven of the top eight players in the rotation are either freshman or sophomores. 

Note this is technically a neutral site game, taking place in Baltimore. I think that's a big break for Loyola not having to go into College Park. As for those eight ranked Big 10 teams, I happen to think Maryland is the weakest of the lot and probably shouldn't even be ranked. Missing eight of its final nine shots, the Terps shot less than 30% in the second half vs. Purdue and that loss will be hard to shake. Meanwhile, Loyola is an underdog for only the 2nd time this year (first was vs. Nevada) and should be motivated back in a more comfortable role. Ball State shot 57% against them, which isn't happening again here. The Ramblers are 15-7 ATS when taking points the L3 seasons. They are also 4-2 SU L6 vs. the Top 25 and 10-2 SU L12 on a neutral court. Take the points. 10* Loyola Chi

10* Army (3:00 ET): For the first time since 2001, Army is favored to win this game. They should be. The Knights are 9-2 SU, reigning C-in-C Trophy winners and simply a much better team than Navy this season. Pardon the terrible pun, but the Midshipmen have been somewhat "lost at sea" in 2018. They won't be going to a bowl game this year, the first time that's been the case since 2002, which was the year they started their historic 14-year win streak over Army. That came to an end two years ago in Baltimore. I was on Army that day, as 5.5-pt underdogs, as they won 21-17. Last year was another Army win, this time 14-13 as 2.5 pt dogs. Lay the points as the Knight deserve to be double-digit favorites in this one.

Navy enters this game w/ a 3-9 record, their worst SU mark in any season since ... 2002. That was Paul Johnson's first year in Annapolis and he just retired from the Georgia Tech job. This particular Navy team is very bad defensively. They allow almost 35 points per game while also giving up 6.65 yards per play, the 11th worst mark in the entire country. While any matchup of two service academies (including Air Force) is typically low-scoring, I believe Army will still be able to do plenty of scoring in this one. Since winning a game in a driving rainstorm vs. Memphis in Week 2, only one FBS opponent (Temple) has failed to score more than 29 points against the Midshipmen. Navy has regularly blown out this season w/ six of its nine losses coming by double digits. The Memphis win was fortunate (weather). Since beating FCS Lehigh the following week, the Middies are just 1-8 SU the L9 games w/ that one win coming against a 3-9 Tulsa team, at home. 

Army gives up only 18.7 PPG (17th in FBS) and 15.5 first downs per game (6th), giving them a huge edge on the defensive side of the ball. Their only two losses this year were to Oklahoma and Duke, both on the road, and they took the Sooners into overtime! Since that OT loss in Norman, the Black Knights are 7-0 SU, winning five of those games by at least two touchdowns. We know these teams run similar, if not identical, offenses. But Navy has posted its worst rushing season in a decade, averaging just 5.0 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Army can actually turn to the pass as they average 10.5 yards per attempt through the air. Third downs are also key here w/ Army leading the country at a 57% conversion rate. Navy is only 39%. 10* Army

analysis soon

8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): The Jets are a better team than Buffalo. That may not be saying much, but it's true. I know the Flyboys have one fewer win than the Bills (3 vs. 4) and were destroyed 41-10 at home by the Bills just a few weeks ago. However, despite the respective records and the destruction that occurred in the first meeting, the Jets still have a far better YTD point differential (-64 vs. -115). In fact, the Bills have the third worst point differential in all of football. For that first meeting, the Jets were seven-point favorites. Now they're getting about a field goal. I know it was a blowout, but the line shift has been too significant. Take the points.

This is the first time Buffalo will be favored this year. Every other team in the league has been favored at least twice. You've got a Bills' offense averaging an AFC-low 14.8 PPG. Expect them to win by a comfortable margin - against anyone - seems to be wishful thinking from my vantage point. I realize that they've played a little bit better of late. But they're coming in off a crushing defeat LW in Miami where rookie QB Josh Allen failed to hit a wide open receiver (who was in the end zone) on the final play. I still have serious doubts about Allen as a potential leader of this franchise. Also, might the recent uptick in performance lead to a - gasp - sense of overconfidence w/ the Bills (along w/ being favored for the first time). 

The Jets are also off a crushing loss, theirs coming at Tennessee. They led 16-0, but lost 26-22, giving up the GW TD in the final minute of a game they'd never trailed in previously. It was their sixth loss in a row overall and HC Todd Bowles is definitely coaching for his job at this point. It looks like rookie QB Sam Darnold will return this week, which is good. Josh McCown just didn't have it anymore. The Jets have lost 7 out of the last 10 meetings vs. the Bills, so the players and coaching staff should be out for revenge. I just don't think I could ever endorse Buffalo as a favorite. 8* NY Jets

8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): Here's the other game where I was a winner in the first meeting. Like Colts-Texans, boy, has a lot changed since then. In this case, New Orleans was a 10-pt favorite at home against Tampa Bay. That doesn't sound out of the ordinary, but the fact that the Bucs won 48-40 sure was shocking at the time. It's even more shocking in retrospect considering the kind of season the Saints have had. They didn't lose again until last week, another time I happened to play against them. Obviously, with the revenge angle in full effect, the Saints are going to be a popular choice this week. But for a second time this season, they are overvalued against the Bucs. Take the points. 

Not only did the Saints win 10 in a row after losing to the Bucs, they were a covering machine too. A nine-game ATS win streak was also snapped last week in Dallas. The Cowboys' defense shockingly shut down Drew Brees and company to the tune of just 10 points and 176 total yards. That was easily a season-low in total yardage, but also the fewest points scored by the Saints in any game in three years. Now they're going up against a significantly worse defense here in Tampa. But they'll have to contend w/ an offense that has the ability to trade points w/ them. This is also another road game and outdoors to boot. 

The Bucs, not the Saints or Chiefs, lead the league in total yardage. Now some of that has to do w/ always being in shootouts because of the defense. But whether its been Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jameis Winston at QB, this offense has moved the ball. It was Fitzpatrick at the helm in the Week 1 upset of the Saints, but Winston hardly represents a downrgrade from the ultimately turnover-prone Fitzpatrick. Winston has guided the team to wins the L2 weeks, over the 49ers and Panthers, both here at home. The defense also showed up in both wins, giving up just 26 points total. Will they possibly give up that many (or more) in this game? There's a good chance. But the Bucs are getting a lot of points at home and I'll take 'em. Something I mentioned in last week's analysis is that the Saints had not been favored by more than a TD on the road since 2013 (didn't cover). Now it's happening in B2B weeks. Tampa Bay has not been a home dog of a TD or more since 2014. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Green Bay is a total mess right now. They've lost five of their six last games, including at home to Arizona last week, which cost Mike McCarthy his job. I think the notion that they'll receive some sort of "boost" in the wake of the firing of their head coach is "wishful thinking" on the part of the Cheeseheads. Of course, the Falcons have been every bit as disappointing as the Packers this year as they're 4-8 SU (GB is 4-7-1) and have lost four in a row (also 0-4 ATS). But they at least have a stable coaching staff, plus they're getting nearly a touchdown this week at Lambeau Field. I had this line closer to a field goal. Take the points.

Now four of Green Bay's last five losses have come by seven points or less. It would be unfair to pin the whole demise on McCarthy, but it was probably time for him to go, especially if he wasn't getting along w/ Aaron Rodgers. Joe Philbin takes over on an interim basis. You may remember him from the non-descript job he did in three-plus seasons as the HC down in Miami. (He had previously served as OC in GB during the Super Bowl season). Philbin is a lame-duck coach as the Packers are simply playing out the string. Despite having Rodgers, this team simply isn't very good. The offense has only managed 17 pts in B2B games and the defense has totally fallen off a cliff.

It's a somewhat similar story w/ the Falcons, who haven't even scored 20 points in a game since Week 9 when they were coming out of their bye. Last week was a new low as they were held to 131 total yards - at home - in a 26-16 loss to Baltimore. Now it should be pointed out that the Ravens have the #1 defense in football. So it should be easier sledding for Matt Ryan and company this week, even though they are on the road. Pretty clearly, there's enough disappointment to go around in this matchup, but I just don't see the Packers as being seven points better than the Falcons right now, even at home. 10* Atlanta

10* Baltimore (1:00 ET): While all the talk in Baltimore right now centers around the QB position, the Ravens have a significant edge defensively in this matchup and that will be what carries them this week in Kansas City. Currently, the Ravens stop unit is #1 in the league in both scoring and total defense, giving up just 17.8 points and 281.7 yards per game. That makes them extremely attractive to me as an underdog, especially one of this size. Compare those defensive numbers to Kansas City, who 31st in yards allowed (417.0 per game) and 27th in points allowed (27.3). I feel the road dog easily stays within the number here and I give them a great shot at the outright upset. 

Now the Chiefs do have the league's top scoring offense (ridiculous 37.0 PPG) and are #3 in yards (437.2). But they did give up 33 points to a hideous Raiders team last week (ATS win for me!). That's an Oakland offense that averages only 18.3 PPG. The Chiefs' defensive numbers have been significantly better at home, but that's because they've also drawn some of the weaker opponents on the schedule here. It also remains to be seen how this offense performs w/o RB Kareem Hunt. You know the story there. Hunt's services certainly weren't needed to get by the lowly Raiders. But the ferocious Ravens defense will be a different story altogether.

Baltimore is 3-0 since Lamar Jackson took over as the starting QB for an injured Joe Flacco. To me, it would be crazy to go back to Flacco. The offense has been able to run the ball far more effectively w/ Jackson in the game (239 YPG) due to Jackson being a threat to run himself (265 yds). The Ravens do have a greater sense of urgency than the Chiefs, whose inclusion in the playoffs is all but assured at this point. Baltimore is fighting for its playoff life, trying to get in either as a Wild Card or the AFC North winner. Only two offenses have topped 24 points against the Ravens defense this year. In his three starts so far, Jackson has benefited from that defense allowing an average of just 211 YPG. They'll keep this one close. 10* Baltimore