Bryan Power

9* Run Line NY Yankees (7:08 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where we are taking the Yankees +1.5. Last night, we grabbed the Astros +1.5, seeing tremendous value w/ a team that could certainly win the game "outright." Well, win is exactly what the Astros did, 7-3 and now the Yankees are on the verge of elimination. The Yanks' chances of winning this series aren't looking too good as Games 6 and 7 (if necessary) will be played in Houston. But Game 5 is still at home and we think they can stay alive, at least for another day. The Yankees losing three in a row at home would be pretty shocking.

Tonight's pitching matchup is a rematch of Game 2, won by Justin Verlander and Houston. Verlander went 6 2/3 innings, allowing just two runs on five hits, as his TSR for the year moved to 26-11. James Paxton lasted only 2 1/3 innings as the Game 2 starter for the Yankees as it was the first time since July that they'd lost a game Paxton had started. (Had been 12-0 the previous 12). Though Verlander was clearly superior to Paxton in Game 2, it should be pointed out that the Astros still won the game by only one run. Such a result would be just fine by us tonight given we're playing the run line. 

It should be noted that Verlander is not infallible. He did lose one postseason start and it was on the road. It was his second start of the series as well as Tampa Bay got to him for four runs in Game 4 of the LDS. Verlander was done after just 3 2/3 IP. You have to figure the Yankees' offense is going to produce more after a disastrous Game 4 where they went 0 for 7 w/ RISP and stranded 10 runners. Four errors didn't help matters either. The Yankees are just 4 for 27 w/ RISP in the series, stranding 33 runners. This was MLB's highest scoring offense during the regular season. With a team this talented and a pitcher the caliber of Paxton set to start, getting a +1.5 at home is too good to pass up. This is just the 5th time in the last three seasons that NY is a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. They are 59-26 at home this year. 9* Run Line NY Yankees

6* Washington (7:05 ET): In terms of workload, it's been two completely different starts to the season for these two Metropolitan Division teams. Wednesday's 4-3 win over Toronto was the Capitals' eighth game this season. Meanwhile, the Rangers have played only four games and that includes last night's 5-2 loss to previously winless New Jersey. But things are set to get a lot "busier" for the Blueshirts as they're about to play five games in eight days, including their first back to back tonight in the Nation's capital. No doubt as to who the stronger side is here and we can't say we're surprised at all to see the line get steamed up. 

Washington is 4-2-2 and has given up the same number of goals (26) that they have scored. So it's been a pretty mediocre start (by their standard). John Carlson, not Alex Ovechkin, leads the team in points (14). That's definitely not a bad thing and really not that big of a surprise either. Carlson had a career-best 70 pts last season. While it's been a pretty pedestrian start for the team, including a 1-1-2 record at home, the Caps should enter Friday's game w/ plenty of confidence seeing as they've defeated the Rangers six straight times, including a 4-0 sweep last season (three of the wins coming after regulation). They've also won 9 of the previous 10 head to head matchups. 

The Rangers have actually scored 1st in all four games this season. But after totaling 10 goals in the first two games (both wins), they've managed only three in the last two (both losses). A 4-1 win over Ottawa is the only game where they haven't surrendered at least four goals. That's a bad sign. So is the situation tonight. New York has lost 28 of the last 36 times they've had to play a game w/o rest. They are also 6-21 SU their L27 times coming off a loss by 3+ goals. They are 5-16 SU their L21 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200. The trends, the situation and talent all favor one side here and that's who we're (obviously) going with. 6* Washington

10* Syracuse (7:00 ET): We've played against Syracuse two times this season w/ very differing results. The first will likely end up as our easiest winner of the year as we went w/ Maryland, a pick 'em, and they beat the 'Cuse 63-20. A week after the Orange had been squeezed by Clemson (lost 41-6), we faded them again, this time as a short favorite here in the Carrier Dome. The opponent was Western Michigan, but the Cuse won 52-33, a game that was much closer than that score. Dino Babers' team is now 3-3 SU overall, losing all three times it has been a dog. They're a HOME dog Friday night vs. Pitt and this looks like a good spot to jump on board. Take the points. 

Pitt is 4-2 SU, but has actually been favored in one game vs. a FBS opponent. So Pat Narduzzi has his team overachieving w/ upsets of UCF and Duke. They also played Penn State tough, in Happy Valley, losing by just a TD. But they also only beat Delaware by three (17-14) at home. So good luck figuring this team out the rest of the way. Key to the close call vs. Delaware was the fact QB Kenny Pickett did not play (hurt his shoulder vs. UCF). Also, six other starters sat out that game. The Panthers came in at "full strength" for their last game against Duke and took a 26-3 lead early in the 2H. But they proceeded to blow all of that 23-point advantage and needed a last minute FG to secure the 33-30 win as 3-pt underdogs. Six Duke turnovers were crucial to the Panthers winning as well. 

Pitt's offense has certainly struggled at times. They've topped 20 points just two times. That won't be enough to win a second ACC road game in as many weeks, let alone cover. The Panthers have had 13 days off since beating Duke while Syracuse lost last Thursday to NC State. The Orange offense took awhile to get going last week, but was up against a good defense. This is the fourth home game in five weeks for Syracuse, so that counteracts the extra time Pitt has had to prepare. At 0-2 in ACC play (Pitt is 1-1), the Orange are going to come out desperate in what is a revenge game for them after losing 44-37 in overtime at Heinz Field last year. 10* Syracuse

10* Over Marshall/Fla Atlantic (6:30 ET): FAU started the season w/ a couple of treacherous games against Ohio State and Central Florida. They obviously lost both, but what's interesting there is they actually stayed closer on the road against the Buckeyes (lost by 24) than they did at home vs. UCF (lost by 34). The Owls' game w/ Ohio St actually is tied for the Buckeyes' slimmest margin of victory all season. Since opening 0-2, FAU has battled back w/ four consecutive wins, one of them being our #1 NCAAF Play for September, a 45-27 win at Charlotte where they were just a 1-pt favorite. That was the Owls' third straight game scoring 40+ points, but last week was a much more low-scoring affair w/ Middle Tennessee as they "only" won 28-13. Look for Lane's crew to get back on track offensively here. Take the Over. 

Marshall is coming off a 31-17 win over Old Dominion. That was one of the higher scoring efforts of the year from the Thundering Herd, who have now topped 30 pts in a game three times, all in Huntington. If one were to simply look at the final score from their last road game (at Middle Tennessee), one might reasonably conclude that the offense "forgot to show up" in Murfreesboro. However, the Herd actually gained 578 yards total offense in that game, only to be undone by four costly turnovers. Last week, the offense rolled up 444 more yards, which was the 4th time in 6 games they've hit that threshold in 2019. Similarly, Doc Holliday's defense has had its ups and downs. They held ODU to just 206 yds last week, but before that had been torched for 400+ yds by every other FBS opponent on the schedule.

Even with the O/U line already being bet up a bit, by kickoff, this still figures to be the lowest for any Florida Atlantic game this year against a FBS team. Before LW's game vs. MTSU, every FAU game had seen a minimum of 59 pts scored. QB Chris Robison had thrown for 300+ yards in four straight games before facing MTSU. But fortunately he was bailed out by a rushing attack that went for 200+ yards for a second straight week. Marshall's PPG average is misleading when you consider they are actually 4th in C-USA in total offense. Similarly, the FAU defense have been "bend but don't break" as they are 12th in the 14-team conference in yards allowed. We look for somewhat of a shootout Friday night in Boca Raton. 10* Over Marshall/Florida Atlantic