Bryan Power

10* Utah (8:15 ET): Even though they have lost four in a row and fallen to fourth place in the Western Conference standings, the Jazz remain second overall in my NBA power ratings (trailing only Golden State). When looking at this four-game losing streak, it is critical to note that Rudy Gobert has missed all of the games. Gobert has been cleared to return, giving the team its top defensive presence back, and I think that leads to a return to winning ways tonight in Denver. 

The Nuggets have seemingly established themselves as a top six team in the West with B2B dominant wins. It was a 140-108 drubbing of Portland on Thursday. That was a result I was happy to see, having laid the points with the Nuggets. But recall why I did so. The Blazers were extremely short-handed going into that game, including no Lillard or McCollum. Last night, Denver was a 133-96 winner over the Lakers, who are still without Anthony Davis. 

You’ve got to wonder if the Nuggets “used up” all of its good shooting last night. They made 57.5% from three-point range, a display that they cannot possibly hope to repeat here, especially if Gobert does return for Utah. Denver has really struggled on the second night of back to backs this season, going just 1-5 SU/ATS in this situation. The Jazz have had three days off to get ready for this game, so the schedule really sets up nicely for them to end this rare losing skid. 10* Utah

8* St. John’s (4:30 ET): The Red Storm suffered another tough loss on Wednesday, falling 86-78 at UConn in overtime. It was a game they thought they had won when Julian Champagnie hit a three-pointer with 4.8 seconds left in regulation, giving the Johnnies a 71-70 lead. But a late foul call, on a putback attempt, allowed for UConn to tie the game by making one of two free throw attempts. For St. John’s, that loss comes on the heels of blowing a halftime lead at Providence (and losing 83-73) last Saturday. 

On Sunday afternoon, the Johnnies are catching the right team. Georgetown has lost three in a row, all at home, as COVID has played a role. Two double digit scorers and coach Patrick Ewing were out for Thursday’s 72-58 loss to Butler. That came after a game I played against the Hoyas. They were three-point underdogs at Marquette on 1/7 and ended up losing 92-64. Ewing really ripped the team after that one, but as of yet, his words have had zero effect. G’town is 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season and this will be just their second “true” road game. 

All nine St. John’s wins this season have been at home where they are averaging 84.9 PPG. A possibly depleted G’town squad isn’t going to be able to stay within that kind of number. Even if they were at full strength, I wouldn’t like the Hoyas’ chances here. The Red Storm have three double-digit scorers, led by Champagnie’s 21.2 PPG. This is a team that’s better than its record. The oddsmakers seem to know that and I’ll lay the number. 8* St. John’s

10* Villarreal (8:00 ET): Still a month away from their next Champions League commitment, I believe it’s imperative that Villarreal starts their move up the La Liga table NOW. The Yellow Submarine currently sit in eighth place (29 points), but are third in the league in goal differential (+11) and fourth in xPts (35.68). I fully expect this to be a top five side by the end of the season. Villarreal is in form currently as they are on a six-match unbeaten run in La Liga with wins in four of the last five matches. I like them here on Sunday against a bottom of the table side. 

Elche has also displayed relatively good form of late, losing only one of their last five matches across all competitions and picking up four points from their last two La Liga fixtures. They’re on a three-match unbeaten streak, but unlike Villarreal, I’m not at all excited about Los Franjiverdes' prospects. This is a side that finished dead last in xPts last season in La Liga and is currently second from the bottom in that regard (ahead of only Cadiz) for 2021/22. I very much feel it’s going to be a struggle for them to avoid relegation as they are currently just two points clear of safety entering Sunday. 

It was a 4-1 Villarreal win in the reverse fixture earlier this season, so they’ve already proven this is a side that they can dominate. Completing a double over Elche would move the Yellow Submarine within one point of the Champions League places. It should be noted that only table leaders Real Madrid have scored more goals this term than Villarreal’s 33. They’ve scored multiple goals in each of their last four La Liga fixtures. Look for them to get the full three points here. 10* Villarreal

8* Dallas (4:30 ET): This is the lone Wild Card game where the teams involved did NOT meet in the regular season. Perhaps the uncertainty of how this game will look is the reason oddsmakers set such a “vanilla” number, but in my opinion the line is far too low. Dallas led the NFC in point differential (+172) and while it should be noted they really did beat up on their lousy division (NFC East), part of their league-best 12-5 ATS mark was a 10-3 ATS record when favored. I really have a hard time believing that Jimmy Garoppolo is going to win a playoff game on the road. 

Now that may seem strange because of the fact I took Jimmy G and the Niners last week, plus the points, against the Rams. But that was a situation where they NEEDED to win and the Rams had already clinched a playoff spot. Despite that dynamic, SF found itself down 17-0 in the first half. They tied the game with a late TD in regulation before winning on a FG in overtime. Now had the 49ers been matched up with another team here in the Wild Card Round, I might have considered them. But this is a bad matchup. 

The 49ers’ defense allowed 51 pass plays of 20+ yards. That sounds bad when getting set to face this Cowboys’ offense. With receivers CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper healthy, which they are now, this is a tough group to stop. Dallas averages 36.4 PPG at home!  On the flip side, San Francisco is 2-6 SU this season when Garoppolo throws two or more interceptions. The Cowboys have a +14 turnover differential. I have too much respect for the Cowboys, who are #1 in DVOA, not to take them here at home. 8* Dallas

10* Under Steelers/Chiefs (8:15 ET): Of the six matchups on the NFL’s “Super” Wild Card Weekend, all but one features teams that met in the regular season. This is one of those as Kansas City drubbed Pittsburgh 36-10, three weeks ago, here at Arrowhead. It’s difficult for me to envision a subpar Steelers team that was outscored by 55 points in the regular season, winning here. But this is certainly a big number to lay in the playoffs. The Steelers’ defense should ensure that this rematch is at least a little closer than the original. But I’m not expecting much scoring by the road team either. 

Kansas City heads into the playoffs on a 5-0 Over run. But let’s not forget about the seven-week stretch of regular season games where they held six teams to 17 points or fewer. At home, the Chiefs’ defense is allowing just 17.1 PPG. I don’t see them really being threatened here by a Steelers’ offense that has been beyond anemic, particularly in the first halves of games this year. The Steelers are averaging just 6.7 PPG in the 1H this year. Put them on the road and that number drops to a near unfathomable 3.6 PPG! They can’t run (3.9 YPC) and barely average 20 PPG. In six of the last eight games, Pittsburgh has gained less than 315 total yards. 

Kansas City should feel pretty comfortable about their chances of winning here. Patrick Mahomes is 42-1 SU as the starter when the defense does NOT give up 27+ points. Clearly, I don’t see the Steelers scoring THAT many. But I do see this being lower scoring than the regular season game, which makes Under the call. The Chiefs’ offense actually put up fewer points at home (than on the road) this season and gained fewer yards, per game and per play. Five of the Steelers’ last six games did not exceed 46 points and four of those had 40 points or fewer. 10* Under Steelers/Chiefs

10* Napoli (12:30 ET): Let’s fade Bologna for a second straight time. It worked out on Tuesday, when they lost 2-1 to Cagliari, a side nowhere near as good as the one I Rossoblu will face today. Napoli is currently third in the Serie A table, seven points adrift of the top. But it wasn’t all that long ago that they looked like the strongest side in the entire league. Napoli began the season with eight straight wins and 12-match unbeaten run. Unfortunately, they’ve slipped a bit, failing to post back to back victories over their last 13 competitions and have just three wins in their last 10 domestic fixtures. 

But one of those three wins was last week, 1-0 over Sampdoria, which was reminiscent of the hot start to 2021/22. Napoli dominated possession (69%) and it was their 10th clean sheet this Serie A season. Unfortunately, it was a much different tune midweek in the Coppa Italia where they were down to nine men by the end of the match and lost 5-2. That was a very misleading score with three of the goals conceded coming in AET.

As I discussed prior to the last fixture, Bologna has been hit hard by COVID recently. That and the fact they have a -5 goal differential in the year have me thinking this side is going to quietly remain in the bottom half of the table the rest of the way. They’re now down to 13th and have conceded nine times while losing four of their last five. It was a convincing 3-0 win by Napoli in the reverse fixture back in October. No one in Serie A has conceded fewer times this season than Napoli’s 15. 10* Napoli