Bryan Power

7* San Diego (4:10 ET): The Phillies have had a great month (17-6) but are still well behind the Padres (6.5 games) in the NL Wild Card race, even after taking two of the first three games in this series. The key for today’s finale is that San Diego will have Yu Darvish on the mound and he’s not only been filthy of late overall (0.82 ERA, 0.591 WHIP L3 starts), but all season here at home (1.34 ERA, 0.645 WHIP in six starts). The Phillies’ offense has certainly been regressing over the last week or so (scored four runs or less in six of the last seven games) and I don’t think their starter for Sunday (Kyle Gibson) is capable of out-dueling Darvish in this spot. 

Darvish has had three subpar outings this season where he allowed five or more runs. All were on the road. He’s allowed no more than 3 ER in any of the other 10 starts. Last time out, Darvish went seven innings against Arizona and allowed just one run on four hits. In his last 22 IP, he’s allowed just 11 hits and two walks. Something else to consider is that, as a team, the Padres haven’t been giving up many runs at home this year. They allow just 3.3 per game with visitors at Petco Park hitting only .205. Only the Yankees and Astros are allowing fewer runs at home this season. 

Gibson has a 5.40 ERA and and 1.567 WHIP on the road this season where he’s yet to win a single decision in six tries. Gibson’s last start came on the road (at Texas) and there he gave up a pair of home runs as the Phils lost 7-0 to the Rangers. Earlier in the season (May 19th), Gibson faced off with Darvish (in Philly) and came out on the losing end of a 2-0 decision. Darvish went seven innings  As a home favorite of -125 to -175, the Padres have won 67% of the time over the last three seasons. 7* San Diego

9* Under Dodgers/Braves (7:05 ET): This rematch of last year’s NLCS has seen each team win a game thus far. The Dodgers took Friday’s series opener 4-1 while the Braves bounced back with a 5-3 victory last night. Don’t expect many runs to be scored in tonight’s rematch (on ESPN). That’s because the Dodgers will send out Tony Gonsolin, who is 9-0 (10-3 TSR) with a 1.58 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. He’s a major reason why the team leads the National League in run prevention this season (just 2.9 rpg allowed on the road). 

Now LA’s offense hasn’t done all that much so far in the series, scoring just seven runs in two games. Tonight they’ll face Spencer Strider, who has pitched much better than his 5.40 ERA would seem to indicate. Over his L3 starts, Strider has a 0.999 WHIP. He struggled his last time out, giving up six runs (on six hits) in just 3 ⅔ innings. But prior to that subpar outing, Strider turned in a three-start stretch where he allowed just three runs over 15 ⅓ IP. He had an 11-strikeout game vs. Washington on 6/15. 

The Braves have of course had a ridiculous June, going 18-4 overall this month. Last night marked the 14th time in those 22 games that they allowed three runs or less. Yet they’ve still allowed 70 more runs than the Dodgers have this season, which just goes to show how stingy the NL West leaders are. The Dodgers are still the class of the Senior Circuit in my view (#2 in the overall power rankings behind the Yankees). They allow, by far, the fewest number of runs per game on the road. Both bullpens are solid. 9* Under Dodgers/Braves

10* Run Line Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play only where I’m backing the White Sox at -1.5. This play may come as a tad bit of a surprise, given my overall outlook on the White Sox. At least based on their run differential, currently -52, the team should have a worse won-loss record. They are one of just three times in all of MLB to have exceeded their Pythagorean win expectation by more than three games. But today the White Sox are facing the prospect of getting swept at home, in a four-game series, by Baltimore. I just don’t see that happening. Lay the -1.5. 

The main reason I like the White Sox on Sunday is that they have Dylan Cease starting. The team is 10-4 this season with him on the mound and he’s been one of the better pitchers in the American League thus far. Over his last five starts, Cease hasn’t allowed a single earned run (!), although that’s a tad bit misleading as he gave up six unearned runs when he faced the Dodgers on June 9th. But that’s been the exception, not the rule, as Cease has allowed two runs or fewer in 11 of his 14 outings. I know that the team has lost four in a row and has a lengthy injury list, but getting swept at home in a four-game series just isn’t very common. Cease is the difference maker. 

Sweeping a four-game series on the road is pretty rare and especially when the visiting team is someone like Baltimore, who is doomed to another last place finish this year in the AL East. FanGraphs has the Orioles projected to win just 34 more games the rest of the season, tied with Oakland for fewest in all of MLB. Jordan Lyles gets the starting nod for Sunday and just doesn’t seem capable of matching Cease. Lyles has struggled on the road all season (6.80 ERA, 1.632 WHIP) and the team is just 1-4 his L5 starts overall. 10* Run line Chi White Sox (-1.5)