Jimmy Boyd

3* HEAVY HITTER on Tulsa +1½

Tulsa is playing its best basketball of the season right when it matters most.
The Golden Hurricane have covered the spread in five of their last six games as an underdog and are thriving in this role.

Wichita State is struggling to find any consistency from its backcourt scorers lately.
The Shockers rank near the bottom of the conference in effective field goal percentage over the last three weeks.

Tulsa excels at forcing opponents into deep shot-clock situations and contested jumpers.
The defense currently ranks in the top 50 nationally in adjusted efficiency and does not give up easy looks in the paint.

Wichita State has a persistent turnover problem that has plagued them throughout the season.
Tulsa’s perimeter pressure is designed to exploit teams that are loose with the basketball and turn mistakes into transition points.

The Shockers are just 2-8 against the spread in their last ten games against teams with a winning record.
They have a habit of fading late in the second half when the pressure ramps up.

Tulsa’s rotation is deeper and more versatile than what Wichita State brings to the floor right now.
That depth allows the Golden Hurricane to stay fresh and keep their defensive intensity high for all 40 minutes.

The Golden Hurricane are also finding a high rhythm from beyond the arc.
They are shooting nearly 39% from three-point range over their last five games while the Shockers struggle to close out on shooters.

Wichita State lacks the offensive firepower to pull away in a game that will be played at a slow, grind-it-out pace.
This is a prime spot for the underdog to not only cover but win the game outright.

Tulsa has the momentum and the better defensive blueprint for this specific matchup.
Grab the points with the more disciplined squad on the floor.

I like the Tulsa +1.5 (-105)

1* Free Pick on Hawaii +130

Hawaii is in a prime spot to pull the upset and punch their ticket to the Big Dance.
The Rainbow Warriors are coming off a massive semifinal win where they held a high-powered Fullerton offense to just 36 percent shooting.

This team is peaking at the perfect time and their defensive intensity is the primary reason.
They just dominated the glass with a 53-26 rebounding advantage and that physical presence is going to be a problem for the Anteaters.

Cal-Irvine has the nation’s leading shot-blocker in the middle, but Hawaii has the size and discipline to negate that rim protection.
Harry Rouhliadeff is playing like a man possessed and his ability to pull defenders out of the paint opens up the floor for their cutters.

Free throw shooting is always the x-factor in these high-stakes tournament games.
Hawaii was nearly perfect from the stripe on Friday night, hitting 25-of-26 attempts.

That kind of reliability is a massive edge when you are catching plus-money in what should be a one-possession game.
The Rainbow Warriors also have the defensive length to run Irvine’s shooters off the three-point line and force them into tough mid-range looks.

Both teams are playing their third game in four days, but Hawaii looks like the fresher squad right now.
They have adapted well to being shorthanded in the backcourt and their rotation has found a rhythm that Irvine will struggle to break.

The Anteaters are the top seed for a reason, but they have shown vulnerability when they cannot dictate a fast tempo.
Hawaii is elite at slowing the game down and making every possession a grind.

In a championship environment where nerves are high, the team that controls the glass and makes their free throws usually walks away with the win.
The value on Hawaii is too high to pass up given how well they are locked in defensively.

Bet Hawaii ML (+130).

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5* NO BRAINER of the Week on Spurs -5½

The San Antonio Spurs are in a prime position to bounce back at home after a tough loss to Denver on Thursday night.

Victor Wembanyama was a late scratch for that game with ankle soreness, but he went through a full pre-game workout and was considered a game-time decision.

Coach Mitch Johnson indicated the move was purely precautionary, and Wembanyama is expected to be back in the starting lineup for this Saturday afternoon tilt.

The Spurs have won 16 of their last 18 games and are currently chasing the top seed in the Western Conference.

They own the third-ranked defensive rating in the league and should have no problem stifling a Charlotte team that struggles with consistency.

Charlotte comes into this game with a winning record, but they still allow opponents to shoot 47% from the field.

The Hornets don't have the size or the discipline to handle Wembanyama’s gravity around the rim, especially with San Antonio ranking fifth in the NBA in scoring.

This is the final game of a six-game homestand for the Spurs, and they aren’t going to let a .500 team steal one at the Frost Bank Center.

San Antonio is 10-5 even without their star center this year, showing they have the depth to cover this number regardless.

With Wemby back and the team motivated to wash away the taste of the Nuggets loss, this spread is way too low.

The Spurs are elite at protecting the ball and forcing turnovers, which will neutralize LaMelo Ball’s playmaking ability early.

Expect San Antonio to dominate the paint and pull away in the second half for a double-digit win.

Bet Spurs -5.5 (-115).

5* NO BRAINER on San Diego State -120

San Diego State is the play in this Mountain West showdown. The Aztecs have a massive defensive edge that always shows up in these high-stakes March games.

They currently rank in the top 20 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. San Diego State excels at forcing teams out of their rhythm and into tough, contested shots.

New Mexico wants to push the pace and score in transition. The Aztecs are one of the best teams in the country at getting back and stopping the fast break.

When this game slows down into a half-court battle, San Diego State wins. They have a significant advantage on the glass and limit opponents to one shot per possession.

The Lobos are currently struggling on the defensive boards. San Diego State will use that to get second-chance points and easy put-backs.

Fatigue is a major factor here after a grueling game on Friday night. San Diego State has the deeper bench and can rotate fresh defenders without a drop-off in production.

The Aztecs are 7-3 straight up in their last ten meetings against New Mexico. They also have a winning record against the spread when the line is five points or less.

New Mexico relies too much on three-point shooting when they get frustrated. San Diego State's perimeter defense is holding teams to just 30% from deep over their last five games.

The Aztecs are more disciplined and better coached for this specific type of matchup. They will not beat themselves with turnovers or poor shot selection in crunch time.

Look for San Diego State to control the paint and pull away in the final minutes. Trust the program that has consistently delivered in these spots for years.

Bet San Diego State ML (-120).

5* NO BRAINER on Utah Valley -1½

Utah Valley has a massive edge on the defensive end of the floor in this matchup. They rank near the top of the conference in effective field goal percentage defense and rim protection.

California Baptist relies way too much on the three-point shot to stay competitive. The Lancers are hitting under 31% from deep over their last five games.

Utah Valley does a great job of running shooters off the line and forcing tough contested twos. The Wolverines also dominate the glass and rarely give up second-chance opportunities.

Utah Valley is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two programs. They have a clear size advantage in the paint that Cal Baptist simply cannot match.

California Baptist played a high-possession game on Friday and looked gassed late in the second half. Utah Valley comes in with more rest and better depth to win the war of attrition.

The Wolverines are 8-2 straight up this season when the spread is three points or fewer. They have the poise and the coaching to close out tight games at the free-throw line.

Expect Utah Valley to control the tempo and keep this game in the half-court. Cal Baptist struggles significantly when they cannot get out in transition for easy layups.

The Lancers rank in the bottom third of the country in offensive rebounding percentage. That means they are one-and-done on almost every possession against this disciplined Utah Valley interior.

The Wolverines are the much more efficient team on both ends of the court right now. This short line is a gift for a team with such a massive defensive advantage.

I like the Utah Valley -1.5 (-105).