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Jimmy Boyd |
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| FREE PICKS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
| NFL | Oct 25, 2026 Colts vs. Vikings |
Colts +6½ -110 at PLAYMGM |
in 18h |
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1* Free Pick on Colts +6½ The Vikings are 5-0 and the defense is real, allowing just 12.8 points a game. No argument there. But look at how those wins came: 23-16 over Tampa Bay, 9-3 in Chicago, 15-10 over Miami. Three of five by a touchdown or less. That profile wins games. It doesn't cover big numbers. Minnesota hasn't scored more than 23 points since the opener against Green Bay. To cover 6.5, this offense needs to do something it hasn't done in over a month. The Colts can score. They're averaging 24 points through 6 games and have hit at least 19 in every one of their last 5. Jonathan Taylor has 7 touchdowns and posted a season-high 151 scrimmage yards last week. Keenan Allen has become the chain mover, with a 26-227-1 line on a team-high 40 targets. Last week's loss to Tennessee was self-inflicted: three turnovers plus a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, and Indy still only lost by 6. Clean up the giveaways and this offense travels fine. Colts tight end Tyler Warren sits out a second straight game with a groin injury, but that's already priced in. They scored 20 without him last week while handing Tennessee two free scores. Kyler Murray is coming off a bye and completed 80 percent of his passes against New Orleans, so Minnesota winning wouldn't surprise me. Winning and covering 6.5 are two different bets. A short-score team laying this many points is a price I'll take the other side of every time. I like the Colts |
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| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NBA | Oct 23, 2026 Wolves vs Magic |
Magic +110 at Ace |
Lost $100.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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4* VEGAS INSIDER on Magic +110 Both of these teams have played exactly 1 game this season, and the books are treating Minnesota's opener like it's a season of tape. That's where the value sits. The case against Orlando is real on the surface. Anthony Edwards dropped 45 in the Wolves' opener and Minnesota shot 42% from three on its way to a +24.8 net rating. But a 42% night from deep is a hot game, not a baseline. Nobody sustains that, and pricing Orlando at +110 at home because of one shooting performance is how dogs get mispriced in October. Meanwhile, Orlando's opener gets read as a disaster when the offense actually showed up. The Magic scored 125 points on 48% shooting with a 0.56 effective field goal mark. Paolo Banchero went for 35 in 41.2 minutes. Wendell Carter Jr. added 22, Franz Wagner scored 22, and Desmond Bane put up 18. That's four starters at 18 or more. The loss came down to ball security. Orlando turned it over on 18% of its possessions, and you don't survive that against anyone. It's also the most fixable problem in basketball, especially at home with 2 days of rest. The injuries to Anthony Black, Jonathan Isaac and Noah Penda thin the Orlando bench, but the core five is intact. Minnesota is still without Donte DiVincenzo with no timetable. Orlando pushed a 110 pace in its opener and has the scoring to trade punches. Getting plus money on this core at home off one game is a buy. I like the Magic |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NBA | Oct 23, 2026 Pistons vs Heat |
Pistons +100 at betus |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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4* VEGAS INSIDER on Pistons +100 One game in, and this price already looks off. The Pistons opened with a win over Boston, putting up 121 points on a 119.8 offensive rating with 38% shooting from three. Miami opened with a 25-point blowout loss and a 124.8 defensive rating. That's a one-game picture, so I'm not selling it as a trend. But what Detroit showed matters: this is last year's core running back the same stuff. Cade Cunningham went for 22, Jalen Duren matched him with 22, Duncan Robinson dropped 21, and Javonte Green added 19. Four guys at 19 or better. That's continuity, not a hot night from one star. Miami is the opposite. They're integrating Giannis Antetokounmpo into a new system, and the opener showed the seams. Yes, Giannis was great: 35 points in under 30 minutes. That's the strongest case for the Heat, and it's real. But he scored 35 and they still lost by 25. When your best player dominates and you get blown out, the problem is everything around him. The regression argument says Miami's 24% three-point shooting improves. Fine. Their offense can climb off that 100 rating. Their defense is the bigger issue, and better shooting doesn't fix a unit that just bled 124.8 points per 100. Detroit also gets the schedule edge, 3 days of rest to Miami's 2. At even money, I'm taking the team with returning chemistry, balanced scoring, and the rest advantage over a group still learning each other's names on defense. I like the Pistons |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NBA | Oct 23, 2026 Bulls vs Bucks |
Bulls +100 at betus |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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5* NO BRAINER of the Week on Bulls +100 Both teams are 0-1, one game into the 2026-27 season. That is the entire book on each side, and the market has decided Chicago's opener defines them. Let's address it head on. The Bulls were awful in Toronto. They shot 32% from the field, 11% from three, posted an 82.1 offensive rating, and turned it over on 24% of possessions. That is the strongest case against this bet, and it is also the reason the price exists. Nobody shoots 11% from deep twice. That is not form, that is an outlier begging for regression. Even in the blowout, Matas Buzelis scored 17, Caleb Wilson 16, and Norman Powell and Jalen Smith added 15 each. The shot-makers are there. Now look at what Milwaukee did in its opener. The Bucks posted a 123.1 defensive rating, actually worse than Chicago's 122.7. One game in, there is zero evidence this Milwaukee defense stops anyone. The Bulls want to run, playing at a 111 pace against Milwaukee's 103.5 in the opener. Both teams come in on 2 days rest, so there is no schedule edge to hide behind. The frontcourt injuries are real. Nic Claxton is out for the first seven games and Zach Collins is playing through a quad strain on a minutes cap. But Jalen Smith just gave them 15 points in 19 minutes, and Milwaukee's interior did not exactly dominate its opener either. At even money, I am buying the one-game overreaction against a team that could not guard anyone itself. I like the Bulls |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Oct 23, 2026 NC State vs Stanford |
NC State -6½ -110 at Buckeye |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Free | ||
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1* Free Pick on NC State -6½ Stanford is averaging 18.29 points a game this season while giving up 36.57. That gap is the whole story here. Strip out last week's 34-7 win over FCS Elon and the Cardinal's recent tape is ugly. They lost 58-7 at Notre Dame, 57-3 at Wake Forest, and 35-7 at Duke. Three blowouts by a combined 150-17 against real competition. NC State comes in 3-3, and I'm not going to dress that up. The Wolfpack got handled 38-14 by Wake Forest in their last outing. But over their last 5 they're 3-2 and scoring 38 points a game, with wins over Louisville 31-28 and App State 41-31. Wake Forest is the useful common opponent. The same team that beat NC State by 24 beat Stanford by 54. Even on a bad day, the Wolfpack are two to three touchdowns better than this Cardinal roster. There is an injury wrinkle to track. Dave Doeren said "We're day-to-day on Kamen Smith, JoJo Trader, Duke Scott, Tristan Teasdell." Scott was later listed out. That matters, but NC State at 80 percent still outclasses a Stanford offense averaging 17 points over its last 5. The number is the sell. A team allowing 36.57 a game should be catching double digits against an ACC offense scoring 33. Laying 6.5 against an opponent that loses its competitive games by 4 and 5 touchdowns is buying at a discount. Stanford covers this only if NC State completely no-shows on a Friday night. I'm not betting on that twice in a row. I like NC State |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Oct 23, 2026 Air Force vs Wyoming |
Air Force -4½ -110 at Buckeye |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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5* NO BRAINER on Air Force -4½ This line is shorter than it should be, and the offensive mismatch is the reason why. Air Force sits at 5-1 this season, scoring 30.83 points a game while giving up 19.67. That profile has held up against decent competition. The Falcons just hung 41 on UNLV last week. Wyoming is 4-3, but the Cowboys are winning with defense and not much else. They're averaging 18.29 points a game. Their SP+ offense ranks 126th in the country at 16.4. That's not a unit built to trade scores if this game opens up. The overall ratings gap backs it up. SP+ has Air Force 66th and Wyoming 109th. That's a 43-spot difference between two teams the market has separated by less than a touchdown. The common opponents tell the cleaner story. Both teams played North Dakota State this season. Air Force lost a 38-32 shootout at home. Wyoming went to Fargo and got shut out 28-0. Air Force also went to Northern Illinois and won 28-7 on the road, the same NIU team Wyoming needed home field to handle. Wyoming's 41-point outburst against NIU last week is the outlier, not the trend. Before that, the Cowboys scored 16 at San Jose State and 0 at North Dakota State. One good home game doesn't fix a bottom-10 offense. Air Force's triple option controls the clock and keeps Wyoming's defense on the field. When the Cowboys fall behind, their offense isn't equipped to catch up. I like Air Force |
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| PICKS IN PROGRESS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Oct 24, 2026 Miami-OH vs Central Michigan |
Miami-OH -3 -115 at PlayMGM |
Lost $115.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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3* HEAVY HITTER on Miami-OH -3 This one is about the price on Central Michigan. The Chippewas are 3-4 this season and the profile is worse than the record. They're averaging 16.57 points a game while allowing 25.57. That's a 9-point hole per game over a 7-game stretch, and it hasn't improved lately. SP+ has Central Michigan 125th overall at -16.4. The offense ranks 133rd in the country. The defense checks in at 107th. There isn't a phase of this team that wins you games. Over their last 5 they're 2-3, scoring 19.2 a game and giving up 26.2. The Akron win on October 3 was the lone bright spot, 41-17 at home. Since then it's been ugly. They lost 31-14 at Ohio on October 10, then dropped a home game to Western Michigan 21-14 last week. Fourteen points in back-to-back games against MAC competition tells you where this offense is. That's the matchup problem. An offense ranked 133rd that can't crack 20 most weeks has no path to keeping this inside a field goal if Miami-OH plays even average football. Now the number. Laying only 3 on the road means the market is treating these teams as roughly even on a neutral field. I don't see it. Home field in the MAC isn't enough to paper over a bottom-10 offense and a defense giving up 25 plus a game. Miami-OH gets a bad team at a short price. I like Miami-OH |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Oct 24, 2026 Eastern Michigan vs Ohio |
Eastern Michigan +10½ -110 at PlayMGM |
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| Play Type: Premium | ||
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4* VEGAS INSIDER on Eastern Michigan +10½ Ohio's recent box scores are inflating this number, and 10.5 is too many points between these two MAC teams. The Bobcats sit 5-2 and have won 4 of their last 5, allowing just 15.8 points a game over that stretch. Look at who padded those numbers. They beat Sacramento State 48-7 last week and Stonehill 35-7 back in September. Against teams that can actually push back, the margins shrink fast. Ohio needed a 13-10 grinder to get past Kent State in early October. They also lost 41-36 at South Alabama in September. Eastern Michigan is 4-4 and 3-2 over its last 5. The Eagles have shown they can travel: 25-23 at Akron two weeks ago and 38-14 at UMass before that. Yes, Toledo handled them 34-14 last Saturday. That loss is a big reason this line sits at 10.5. Toledo is one of the best teams in this league. Ohio hasn't proven it belongs in that tier against conference competition. EMU scores 23.2 a game over its last 5 and allows 25.6. Ohio averages 30.43 on the season, but strip out the two blowouts of overmatched opponents and this profiles as a one-score to ten-point game, not a comfortable double-digit cover. I'm buying the number here. Asking a MAC favorite to win by 11 against a conference opponent that just won two straight road games before the Toledo stumble is asking too much. The market is selling low on EMU and buying high on Ohio. That's exactly the spot I want the points. I like Eastern Michigan |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Oct 24, 2026 Western Michigan vs Toledo |
Western Michigan +3½ -115 at PlayMGM |
Lost $115.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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3* HEAVY HITTER on Western Michigan +3½ Start with the common opponent. Toledo lost to Buffalo 23-8 at home two weeks ago. Western Michigan went to Buffalo and won 20-17 earlier this month. Same opponent, opposite outcomes, and the market is still laying 3.5 against the Broncos. Western Michigan is 5-2 through 7 games this season and allowing just 16.86 points a game. That defense ranks 43rd in SP+, well ahead of Toledo's offense at 75th. When the better unit on the field belongs to the underdog, I pay attention. Toledo's 36.29 points per game looks scary until you see who it came against. They hung 49 on Temple but gave up 48 doing it. Over their last 5 they've allowed 25 a game. That's not a defense that puts away a grinder like WMU. And a grinder is exactly what the Broncos are. They've won 4 of their last 5, including 21-14 over Central Michigan last week. They play low-scoring, close games. Every one of their last 3 wins came by a single score. That profile cashes 3.5-point tickets. Western Michigan also won the only recent meeting between these two, so there's nothing about this matchup that scares them. The number is the last piece. Getting the hook at +3.5 in a MAC game between two 5-2 teams is value. The gap between these clubs is smaller than the market says, and the team with the better defense is getting the points. I like Western Michigan |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Oct 24, 2026 Texas A&M vs Alabama |
OVER 50½ -105 | |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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5* NO BRAINER on Texas A&M/Alabama: over 50½ Alabama is scoring 39.29 a game while allowing 21.43 through 7 games this season. Do the math and the Tide's games are averaging over 60 combined points. This total is 50.5. The tape backs up the numbers. Alabama beat Florida State 50-36, South Carolina 49-18, and Mississippi State 56-23. When this offense is at home and rolling, it can threaten 50 on its own. Yes, the Tide cooled off against Georgia and at Tennessee the last two weeks. Those are two of the better defenses they'll see all year. Texas A&M's defense isn't playing at that level right now. The Aggies allow 17.14 a game on the season, but that number is propped up by a 41-0 shutout of The Citadel and holding Arkansas to 7. The real offenses on the schedule got theirs: Kentucky scored 31, Missouri 27, LSU 35. Alabama is the best offense A&M has faced. The risk is the A&M offense, which scored 6 at Missouri and 6 at LSU. But the Aggies hung 34 on Arkansas and are averaging 29.43 a game overall. Alabama's defense is giving up 24.6 over its last 5, including 36 to Florida State. There are points available for A&M here too. This number is priced off A&M's low-scoring road trips, not off how Alabama's home games have actually played. If the Tide score like they have in Tuscaloosa this season, a modest 17 to 20 from the Aggies clears this with room to spare. I like the Over |
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Boyd is a former collegiate golfer and University of Iowa Law grad that ensures you success in every sport he covers. Jimmy's quality sports selections with game-breaking analysis make him a major force in the handicapping industry for years to come. No Brainer: This is one of Jimmy’s highest rated plays. After reading his write-up on the game you will see why this play’s title is so fitting. These picks are reserved for major mismatch advantages and strong value plays. Heavy Hitter: Jimmy’s Heavy Hitter plays are backed by a wealth of statistical analysis and fit into one or more of his many winning systems. This is the well-rounded gem of Jimmy’s top plays, and it covers games from every angle. Vegas Insider: Nobody spots a winning system like Jimmy Boyd. His Vegas Insider label is reserved for plays backed by the strongest systems and trends on the board. Bailout Blowout: There is no better way to end the day than picking up a big win on the final game of the evening. Jimmy’s Bailout Blowouts come on late games and they have built a strong reputation as being a consistent winner. All of Jimmy’s picks get monitored around the web. Jimmy is one of the very few handicappers that have actually earned the stripes to be regarded as a top Industry player. There are not many handicappers in the industry that can match his long term success rates. |
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