Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Houston Astros -120

The Houston Astros will be highly motivated for a victory today.  They have lost five straight overall including the first two of this series to the Chicago Cubs.  Look for ace Justin Verlander to deliver a gem and for the Astros to avoid the sweep with a Game 3 victory today.

Verlander just keeps getting it done at age 41.  He went 13-8 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 27 starts last season at age 40.  Verlander was solid in his first start this season, limiting the Nationals to 2 runs and 4 base runners in 6 innings of a 5-3 victory.

Javier Assad has benefited from facing a very weak schedule of Colorado, San Diego, Seattle and Miami.  Those are four of the worst lineups in baseball with perhaps the exception of the Padres.  I expect Assad to come back down to reality here against the best lineup he has faced yet in the Astros.

The Cubs were already without one of their best hitters in Seiya Sazuki, and now they will be without Cody Bellinger for the foreseeable future.  The Astros are 59-39 in their last 98 road games.  Houston is 37-20 in its last 57 road games with a money line of +125 to -125.  Bet the Astros Thursday.

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15* MLB Thursday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-110)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a big advantage at the plate today over the Washington Nationals.  They are scoring 5.3 runs per game overall this season while the Nationals are scoring just 3.6 runs per game overall, including 3.3 runs per game at home.  The Nationals just lost one of their best hitters in RF Lane Thomas to a knee injury yesterday as well.

Los Angeles ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in five starts this season with 30 K's in 22 innings.  He has rebounded nicely from a terrible opening start against the Padres.

Mackenzie Gore is 1-1 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.467 WHIP in three home starts for the Nationals this season.  Gore is 0-0 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in two career starts against the Dodgers, allowing 3 homers in 9 2/3 innings.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Thursday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles +1.5

The Lakers have deserved better than being down 2-0 in this series.  This series is much closer than that 2-0 lead for the Nuggets would indicate.  I expect their hard work to pay off in Game 3 and for the Lakers to finally end this 10-game losing streak to the Nuggets.

The Lakers outplayed the Nuggets for three quarters in Game 1 but were outscored 32-18 in the 3Q and lost by 11.  The Lakers outplayed the Nuggets for 47 minutes in Game 2 but lost 101-99 on a Jamal Murray buzzer-beater.  Murray got hot late after they had shut him down up until that point.

I just think the Nuggets are more vulnerable than they were last season when they won the title.  They have less depth and rely too much on Jokic and Murray.  Their role players will struggle on the road here.

The Lakers have more depth than last season, and I expect their role players to play much better than they did in Denver.  Role players always tend to play better at home.  LeBron and AD will continue to get whatever they want as they have really dominated in the first two games.  Expect these two to close it out in the 4th finally.  Bet the Lakers in Game 3 Thursday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference Round 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Orlando Magic ML -120

The Orlando Magic are in a must-win in Game 3 after dropping their first two games in Cleveland.  They were identical 5.5-point dogs in both Games 1 and 2, and now they are basically a PK in Game 3.  That's not a big enough adjustment for flipping home courts in their advantage in this must-win game.

This is a young Magic team that needs home court to feel comfortable.  They have dominated at home all season, going 29-11 SU & 27-13 ATS in their 40 games in Orlando.  I expect the Cavaliers to relax just enough after handling their business at home to let the Magic have a lot more success in Game 3.

Of course, the Magic cannot possibly shoot as poorly as they did in Cleveland either.  They shot 32.6% overall and 8-of-37 (21.6%) from 3 in Game 1 and 36.2% overall and 9-of-35 (25.7%) from 3 in Game 2.  It's safe to say they are due some positive shooting regression, and I look for them to get it at home.  Bet the Magic on the Money Line Thursday.