John Ryan

Sunday, November 1 | 5:00 PM ET | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis

THE PLAY: NETS +3.5

SYSTEM RECORD

Against the spread: 87-63-2

ATS winners: 58%

Straight up: 41-111

The following NBA betting algorithm has produced a 41-111 SU record and a 87-63-2 ATS mark good for 58% winning bets since 2016.

REQUIRED SITUATIONS

·       Bet on road teams that have lost the last three meetings to the current foe.

·       That road team is coming off a double-digit home loss.

Betting on struggling road teams that are shooting 43% or worse and allowing opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field, and with the opponent coming off a game in which they allowed 55% or higher shooting has compiled a 45-23 ATS record good for 66.2% winning bets since 1996. If our dog is priced at 5.5 or fewer points has seen them produce a remarkable 12-7 SU (63%) and a 15-4 ATS mark good for 79% winning bets.

THE STORY: HOW EVERY REQUIREMENT CHECKS OUT

A road team that has lost three straight to Indiana. Brooklyn has dropped each of its last three meetings with the Pacers: 115-110 on February 11, 123-94 on April 9, and 136-109 on October 25. The first of those was a five-point game, and Brooklyn has now been beaten by the same opponent three times in a row, which is the exact situation the system targets.

Coming off a double-digit home loss. On Friday the Nets lost 110-94 at home to Detroit, a 16-point loss, shooting 40% from the field and just 11-of-37 from three. That is the double-digit home loss the system requires, and it also shows the kind of cold shooting the stronger version of the system looks for.

The opponent let someone shoot 55%+. Indiana is coming off a 145-125 loss at Miami on Friday in which the Heat shot 58% from the field. That clears the 55% mark, and the Pacers are now on a three-game losing streak and 0-2 at home.

The price. Brooklyn is a short underdog, 3.5 to 4.5 points depending on the book, which puts the game inside the 5.5-or-fewer window where the system has gone 15-4 ATS.

The story is a winless Nets team that is easy to fade, a Pacers team that is hurt and slipping, and a system that has historically paid on road teams in exactly this spot.

Sunday, November 1 | 6:00 PM ET | NHL Network | Madison Square Garden, New York

THE PLAY: RANGERS MONEY LINE -120

SYSTEM RECORD

Record: 153-77

Win percentage: 67%

Average wager: -135

ROI: 26%

The following NHL betting algorithm has produced a 153-77 SU record (67%) that has averaged a -135 wager resulting in a 26% ROI and a $60,610 profit for the Dime Bettor and a $3,030 profit for the $50 per game bettor since 2015.

REQUIRED SITUATIONS

·       Bet on home teams using the money line priced between -115 and -165.

·       Our home team lost their previous game by three or more goals.

·       The visitors scored three or more goals in each of their last two games.

THE STORY: HOW EVERY REQUIREMENT CHECKS OUT

A home team in the price window. The Rangers are the home team at Madison Square Garden and are priced around -120 to -127 on the money line, comfortably inside the -115 to -165 range.

A bad loss last time out. The Rangers’ previous game was a 6-3 loss to the Kings at home on October 26, a three-goal defeat. They then had a five-day break, which is time to fix the problems that showed up in that game.

The visitors have been scoring. Edmonton has scored four goals in each of its last two games: a 4-0 win over Calgary on October 28 and a 4-0 win over the Islanders on Saturday. Both are well past the three-goal requirement, and the Oilers lead the NHL in scoring at 4.21 goals per game.

The Rangers will be focused squarely on playing much better defense in this matchup to fix the recent problems.

The story is a home team that was embarrassed in its last game and had five days to get ready, against a high-scoring visitor whose offense is already being priced into the number. The system has backed that spot at 153-77 since 2015.

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, November 1 | 1:00 PM ET | AT&T Stadium, Arlington | Week 8

THE PLAY: CARDINALS +7 – 7 UNITS | Sunday NFL Best Bet

The following NFL betting algorithm has compiled a 26-60-2 SU and 56-31-1 ATS record, good for 64.4% winning bets since 2017.

Against the spread: 56-31-1   |   ATS winners: 64.4%   |   Straight up: 26-60-2   |   Trust factor: p = 0.010

Required situations

✓    Bet on dogs that are coming off a game in which they were also priced as the dog.

✓    They are priced as 5.5 or more-point underdogs.

✓    They had three or more third-down failures than the opponent in their previous game.

✓    They gained 400 or fewer yards in that previous game.

If they were an away dog in that previous game, these live dogs have compiled a highly profitable 14-33-1 SU and 33-14-1 ATS, good for 70% winning bets.

The logic behind the system

Big underdogs that failed on third down and could not move the ball last week are the kind of team the public wants to fade. The system says that is the signal to buy the points: the 26-60-2 straight-up record shows these dogs usually lose, but they lose by fewer points than the market expects, and the points are what matter.

Confirming the situation

✓    A big dog. Arizona is a 7-point underdog at Dallas, above the 5.5-point minimum.

✓    The kickoff. The game starts at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 1.

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets

Sunday, November 1 | 1:00 PM ET | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford | Week 8

THE PLAY: RAIDERS +1.5 – 7 UNITS | Sunday NFL Best Bet

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 57-42 SU record and a 55-39-5 ATS mark, good for 59% winning bets since 1999.

Against the spread: 55-39-5   |   ATS winners: 59%   |   Straight up: 57-42   |   Trust factor: p = 0.12

Required situations

✓    Bet on teams from the Pacific time zone.

✓    They are playing a host located in the Eastern time zone.

✓    The game starts at 1:00 PM ET.

If the team has had more than a week of rest, they have gone 12-5 SU and 12-5 ATS for 71% winning bets.Separately, if they are favored by seven or fewer points, they have gone 27-10 SU and 21-12-4 ATS, good for 64% winning bets.

The logic behind the system

A West Coast team playing a 1:00 PM kickoff in the Eastern time zone is supposed to be at a body-clock disadvantage. The numbers say the market overreacts to that: Pacific time zone teams in this spot have won outright 58% of the time and covered 59% of the time. The extra-rest and short-favorite subsets sharpen the edge.

Confirming the situation

✓    Pacific vs Eastern. Las Vegas is from the Pacific time zone and is playing at the Jets, who are in the Eastern time zone.

✓    The kickoff. The game starts at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 1.

✓    The price. The Raiders are only a 1.5-point underdog, a short number on a road team with the travel edge priced in.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Sunday, November 1 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami | Week 8

THE PLAY: PATRIOTS -7 – 7 UNITS | Sunday NFL Best Bet

This NFL betting algorithm has gone 70-41 ATS for 63% winners since 1989, or 37 seasons.

Against the spread: 70-41   |   ATS winners: 63%   |   Seasons of data: 37   |   Trust factor: p = 0.008

Required situations

✓    Bet on road teams.

✓    That road team's defense has allowed 6.75 or more yards per pass attempt in four consecutive games.

✓    The host's defense was torched for 8 or more yards per pass attempt in its previous game.

The logic behind the system

This system is about two pass defenses that are both leaking, with one of them playing at home. When both defenses are giving up chunk plays through the air, the better offense usually wins by more than the market expects. The road team has been bad against the pass for a month and still covers, because the host just got shredded in its last game and the market has not fully priced that in.

Confirming the situation

✓    A road favorite. New England is the road team and is laying 7 points at Miami.

✓    The kickoff. The game is scheduled for 4:25 PM ET on CBS in Week 8.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, November 1 | 1:00 PM ET | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh | Week 8

THE PLAY: BROWNS +3.5 – 7 UNITS | Sunday NFL Best Bet

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 34-30 SU and 47-15-2 ATS record, good for 76% winning bets since 2018.

Against the spread: 47-15-2   |   ATS winners: 76%   |   Straight up: 34-30   |   Trust factor: p = 0.0001

Required situations

✓    Bet on divisional dogs priced between 2.5 and 7.5 points.

✓    The game is a divisional showdown.

✓    The dog won each of the last two meetings with the current foe.

✓    The foe is coming off a non-divisional game.

The logic behind the system

Divisional games are the hardest in the league to price. These teams know each other, and a team that has won the last two meetings knows how to beat this opponent. Meanwhile the favorite is coming off a game against a team from outside the division, which usually means less preparation and a bit of a letdown. That mix has produced one of the most profitable dog systems in the book.

Confirming the situation

✓    A divisional dog in the window. Cleveland is a 3.5-point underdog at Pittsburgh, inside the 2.5 to 7.5-point range, and both teams are in the AFC North.

The kickoff. The game starts at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 1.

Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, November 1 | 4:05 PM ET | FOX | SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles | Week 8

THE PLAY: CHARGERS +6.5 – 7 UNITS | Sunday NFL Best Bet

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 31-34 SU (48%) and 44-17-4 ATS record, good for 72% winning bets over the past 35 seasons.

Against the spread: 44-17-4   |   ATS winners: 72%   |   Straight up: 31-34   |   Trust factor: p = 0.001

Required situations

✓    Play on road teams that are winless on the season.

✓    The game occurs between weeks 3 and 10.

✓    The road team is priced between pick-em and a 7.5-point underdog.

If the total is priced between 37.5 and 45 points, these dogs have been great investments, compiling a 21-28 SU and 35-14-1 ATS record for 71.4% winning bets.

Two more systems that point to the Chargers

✓    Road teams coming off a road loss, late in the year: 15-31 SU and 32-13-1 ATS, good for 71% winning bets since 2002. Bet on road teams that are coming off a road loss, in November and December, that have won fewer than 33% of their games, against a host that is coming off a win, in a non-divisional matchup.

✓    Road dogs that cannot score: 66-116-1 SU (36%) and 119-59-5 ATS, good for 67% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. Bet on dogs priced between 3.5 and 10 points that are getting outscored by an average of 5 or more points in the first half and scored 14 or fewer points in their previous game.

The logic behind the system

A winless team that is still priced inside a touchdown is a market that has stopped believing in it. The system says that is exactly when to buy: an 0-fer team gets a number that reflects its record, not its talent, and the points do the work even when the team keeps losing outright. Note the straight-up record of just 48%: this is a bet on the number, not a prediction that the dog wins.

Confirming the situation

✓    A winless road team. The Chargers are 0-6 and are the NFL's last winless team.

✓    The window. This is Week 8, inside the week 3 to 10 range, and the Chargers are a 6.5-point road dog, inside the pick-em to 7.5-point range.

✓    The total. The game total is posted at 44.5 at major books, inside the 37.5 to 45 range for the stronger version of the system.

✓    Non-divisional, November. The Rams are in the NFC West and the Chargers are in the AFC West, so this is a non-divisional game, played in the month of November.